Thursday, August13, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Menlo Park, CA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:22AMSunset 8:04PM Thursday August 13, 2020 1:24 AM PDT (08:24 UTC) Moonrise 12:06AMMoonset 2:52PM Illumination 31% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ530 San Pablo Bay, Suisun Bay, The West Delta And The San Francisco Bay North Of The Bay Bridge- 912 Pm Pdt Wed Aug 12 2020
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 15 kt.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 15 kt.
Thu night..SW winds 5 to 15 kt.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 15 kt.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 15 kt.
Sun..W winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt.
Mon..W winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt.
PZZ500 912 Pm Pdt Wed Aug 12 2020
Synopsis for the central california coast and bays including the Monterey bay..Greater farallones...and cordell bank national marine sanctuaries... Expect gusty northwest winds mainly over the northern coastal waters. Northwest winds decrease later in the week. Seas will remain mixed with a short period northwest swell and a longer period southerly swell.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Menlo Park, CA
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location: 37.52, -122.16     debug


Area Discussion for - San Francisco/Monterey Bay Area, CA
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FXUS66 KMTR 130603 AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area 1103 PM PDT Wed Aug 12 2020

SYNOPSIS. A warming trend will continue through late week as high pressure builds toward the coast. Some tropical moisture arriving from the south will bring a chance for a few showers and thunderstorms Thursday and Friday. By Friday and moreso over the weekend hot weather returns to inland areas with triple digit heat likely continuing into early next week while a shallow marine layer persists along the coast.

DISCUSSION. as of 9:57 PM PDT Wednesday . Not planning any forecast changes for this evening. Marine layer is just around 1000 feet with low clouds from the Golden Gate southward to Big Sur. Northerly gradients around 5 mb with a shallow inversion layer and light onshore winds should keep inland penetration mainly confined to the Monterey Bay region and Salinas Valley.

Looking at satellite the massive Lake Fire has exploded this evening down on the Angeles National Forest. Farther south we then see mid and high level clouds across Baja California and spreading northward into SoCal. These clouds are remnants of former Hurricane Elida. We will be watching this moisture as it heads northward Thursday. The main concern is thunderstorm chances and as is often the case around here it remains a difficult forecast. There is a weak circulation offshore (upper low) with the strong high over the Desert Southwest. The moisture field will squeeze between these two features spreading northward on Thursday from Santa Barbara county through San Luis Obispo before finally approaching the Central Coast. The nam and gfs models are generating some activity over SLO/Santa Barbara with some spotty qpf Thursday afternoon/early evening into Monterey county. Even our local in-house WRF shows the best chances over Monterey county. Traditional tools such as high level Total-Totals are well in excess of 30 with model cross sections showing sufficient moisture at the mid-levels down to around 600 mb. The bottom line is this remains a tough forecast. The main concern would be a lightning event could lead to several new ignitions with fuels of course dry, especially above the marine layer. Best estimate at this time is much of the area will see an abundance of mid and high clouds Thursday afternoon/evening. In addition a slight uptick in dew-point will make things feel a little more sticky/humid than normal. Believe shower/t-storm threat will first get close over SLO/Kern and Kings county as it approaches some of the hinterlands of interior Monterey county. Current forecast shows slight chance of t-storms with LAL (lightning activity level) of 2. Any storms that develop over the Los Padres Forest of Monterey county will be of concern for new ignitions. Models then want to show a more organized band of showers and t-storms developing offshore, over the ocean waters later Thursday evening. Not enough confidence to issue any Red Flag Warnings.

On Friday the offshore moisture may then try and return onshore around Pt Reyes before new convection fires farther to the north.

Once any convective threat ends all attention will turn to impending heat event. No changes to excessive heat watch. Hot temps Friday afternoon through the weekend with inland triple digit heat. The ECMWF historically does well in some of these extreme events. Right now MOS guidance shows 106 for Livermore on Friday with 113 for Paso Robles on Sunday which is often a good proxy for some of the hottest interior areas of the Central Coast. Of course any lingering sleeper fires would awake and a dangerous fire weather pattern is hot and dry weather after any lightning. Hot and dry through the weekend with a shallow fog bank along the immediate coast. Stay tuned, the weather looks changeable the next few days with possible high impact convective and heat events.

PREV DISCUSSION. as of 2:00 PM PDT Wednesday . Fort Ord Profiler put the depth of the marine layer this afternoon around 1500 ft, with most of the low stratus hugging the coast. Of interesting note, a notable temperature gradient is evident across San Francisco County, with the west side of the county running 5-7 degrees cooler than than east side of the county, owing to the low stratus deck which has been sitting over the west side of the county all day.

The axis of the longwave trough is currently over BC, with the PAC NW on the divergent side. To our south, a shortwave trough is expected to continue moving towards our CWA. Tropical storm Elida is due west of Baja and gradually weakening as it moves to the northwest. Expecting its remnants to be absorbed by the shortwave and advected northward into our CWA Thursday through Friday. Model guidance is currently suggesting that the tropical moisture will move into our southern CWA sometime around late Thursday morning. Theta-e tongue can be observed on the NAM-12km runs for today, while Total Totals >30 are apparent on both the GFS and ECMWF runs over southern Monterey County and fairly close to the Delta. Not expecting widespread thunderstorms and showers, nor is there a significant probability for them Thursday and Friday. Nevertheless, should any convection develop, expect the most likely areas for their development to be down in Southern Monterey/San Benito counties on Thursday. Moreover, PWAT values on both the GFS and ECMWF runs today stay relatively over an inch across that area, suggesting that if any convection does develop then we should expect for it to be wet convection. Nevertheless, going to have to keep an eye for lightning. Theta-e values increase through Friday across the central part of the CWA as the tropical moisture continues tracking northward. As such, the slight chance for possible showers and thunderstorms will move north and westward on Friday. NAM- 12km runs have kept most of that risk offshore, however, so currently keeping inland chances fairly low.

Friday onwards, expecting the warm up across the region to really get going as the high over the Desert Southwest continues to build. Models suggesting heights >590dm 500hPa across most of our eastern CWA, while 850hPa temps are expected to be in the upper 20 C range. Models have continued to trend towards this setup, and if it continues to trend this way, then high confidence will exist for widespread 90s and low 100s to be expected across the interior this weekend, with some isolated locations like Pinnacles and Lake Berryessa potentially getting into the 100 to 108 degree range. Not much in the way of relief is expected through the weekend, with poor humidity recoveries and hot conditions to influence most of our CWA. Sharp temp gradients are expected between the coast and areas just a few miles inland this weekend as a result. Even along the coast, expect weekend max temps in the mid-70s and even the low 80s. All that being said and after coordinating with neighboring offices will maintain an Excessive Heat Watch beginning Friday afternoon continuing through Sunday evening for interior East Bay, Santa Clara Valley (recently added), and Southern interior of Monterey/San Benito.

AVIATION. as of 11:00 PM PDT Wednesday . for 06z TAFs. Marine layer has compressed to just over 1000 feet at Fort Ord and has dissipated north towards Bodega Bay. This is supported on satellite imagery, with stratus confined to coastal areas from SF peninsula southward and clear skies to the north. Given the shallow marine layer, northerly gradient and lighter onshore winds will not be expecting stratus to be as widespread Thursday morning. Should be an early mix out for any terminals that get cigs due to shallow nature. Will be expecting increasing mid and high clouds during the day Thursday, impacting the Central Coast first and then spreading northward later into Thursday evening. VFR conditions will prevail throughout the day into the evening, with onshore winds.

Vicinity of KSFO . VFR this evening with no cigs forecast overnight. Winds around 10 KT out of W/NW, weakening overnight. Any patchy clouds Thursday morning should mix out by 16z with some increasing high clouds by afternoon. Light afternoon seabreeze on Thursday.

SFO Bridge Approach . Similar to KSFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals . IFR cigs impacting KSNS and KMRY overnight. Light to calm winds. Shallow cloud deck should mix out by 16z Thursday. Continued onshore flow for tomorrow afternoon.

MARINE. as of 09:24 PM PDT Wednesday . Expect gusty northwest winds mainly over the northern coastal waters. Northwest winds decrease later in the week. Seas will remain mixed with a short period northwest swell and a longer period southerly swell.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. Tngt. SCA . Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm SCA . Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm until 3 AM



PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW AVIATION: Lorber/RWW MARINE: Canepa

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RTYC1 - 9414523 - Redwood City, CA 3 mi54 min NW 2.9 G 4.1 62°F 76°F1013.4 hPa
AAMC1 - 9414750 - Alameda, CA 19 mi54 min WNW 2.9 G 4.1 60°F 71°F1013.1 hPa
LNDC1 20 mi54 min W 1.9 G 1.9 60°F 1012.9 hPa
OMHC1 - 9414769 - Oakland Middle Harbor Met, CA 21 mi54 min WSW 1 G 2.9
OBXC1 22 mi54 min 60°F 58°F
OKXC1 - 9414776 - Oakland (Berth 34), CA 22 mi54 min WNW 1.9 G 2.9 60°F 1013 hPa
PXOC1 - 9414311 - San Francisco (Pier 1), CA 23 mi54 min SW 2.9 G 4.1 58°F 1012 hPa
PXSC1 23 mi54 min 59°F 58°F
FTPC1 - 9414290 - San Francisco, CA 26 mi54 min SW 5.1 G 8 56°F 62°F1013.3 hPa
PPXC1 - 9414847 - Richmond (Point Potrero), CA 29 mi54 min SW 12 G 17 60°F 1013.1 hPa
TIBC1 - Tiburon Pier, San Francisco Bay, CA 30 mi54 min S 2.9 58°F 1013 hPa
46237 - San Francisco Bar, CA (142) 31 mi54 min 60°F4 ft
RCMC1 - 9414863 - Richmond, CA 31 mi54 min S 5.1 G 8 60°F 66°F1012.7 hPa
UPBC1 36 mi54 min WNW 11 G 16
MZXC1 - 9415102 - Martinez-Amorco CA 36 mi54 min WNW 14 G 17 62°F 69°F1012 hPa
DPXC1 - 9415141 - Davis Point, San Pablo Bay, CA 37 mi54 min W 5.1 G 8 62°F 1012.3 hPa
PCOC1 - 9415144 - Port Chicago, CA 38 mi54 min W 13 G 15 64°F 71°F1011.6 hPa
PSBC1 - 9415115 - Pittsburg (Suisun Bay), CA 39 mi54 min NNW 12 G 16 69°F 1010.9 hPa
46026 - SAN FRANCISCO - 18NM West of San Francisco, CA 39 mi34 min W 3.9 G 3.9 55°F 5 ft1013.7 hPa54°F
46012 - HALF MOON BAY - 24NM South Southwest of San Francisco, CA 40 mi44 min NNW 9.7 G 12 59°F 1014 hPa55°F
SFXC1 - San Francisco Bay Reserve, CA 48 mi99 min NNW 4.1

Wind History for Redwood City, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
San Carlos Airport, CA5 mi29 minWNW 310.00 miFair63°F55°F77%1013.2 hPa
Mountain View, Moffett Field, CA9 mi29 minN 010.00 miFair64°F57°F78%1012.5 hPa
Hayward, Hayward Air Terminal, CA10 mi30 minWNW 310.00 miFair62°F54°F75%1013.5 hPa
Oakland, Metro Oakland International Airport, CA13 mi31 minWNW 810.00 miFair61°F55°F81%1013 hPa
San Francisco, San Francisco International Airport, CA13 mi28 minNW 610.00 miA Few Clouds57°F52°F83%1012.7 hPa
San Jose, San Jose International Airport, CA16 mi31 minN 010.00 miFair67°F59°F76%1012.5 hPa
Half Moon Bay Airport, CA18 mi29 minENE 310.00 miOvercast50°F48°F94%1013.9 hPa
Livermore, Livermore Municipal Airport, CA22 mi31 minN 010.00 miFair70°F46°F44%1011.9 hPa
San Jose / Reid / Hillv, CA22 mi3.6 hrsWNW 310.00 miClear72°F53°F53%1013.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPAO

Wind History from PAO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--------------------------346N6NW7NW9NW11NW11NW12NW9NW11
1 day ago----------------------------N7N8N8N12N13N16N16N16N15
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2 days ago----------------------------N4N7N7--N11N13--N16N16N15

Tide / Current Tables for Redwood Creek, C.M. No.8, San Francisco Bay, California
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Redwood Creek
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:06 AM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:09 AM PDT     1.32 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:23 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:43 AM PDT     5.69 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:36 PM PDT     3.58 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:52 PM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:02 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:21 PM PDT     7.63 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.42.41.71.31.52.2344.95.65.75.34.74.13.73.64.15.26.27.17.67.56.85.7

Tide / Current Tables for Dumbarton Bridge, San Francisco Bay, California Current
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Dumbarton Bridge
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:05 AM PDT     -0.99 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 01:05 AM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:48 AM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:23 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:06 AM PDT     1.10 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 11:23 AM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 12:41 PM PDT     -0.21 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 02:43 PM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:51 PM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:36 PM PDT     0.98 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 08:02 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:09 PM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1-0.9-0.7-0.40.10.611.11.10.90.60.1-0.2-0.2-0.100.30.70.910.80.50.1-0.5

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for San Francisco/Monterey Bay Area, CA (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.