Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Saluda, VA

KEY MESSAGES
1) Remaining dry and mild through Wednesday with a light breeze.

2) Low pressure develops along an approaching cold front Wed night, and passes by N of the area on Thurs. Some light precipitation is possible late Wed, potentially ending as a brief period of non- accumulating to trace light snow Thurs morning.

3) Turning colder, with below normal temperatures expected from Thursday night into early next week. Mainly dry throughout the period, though there is a low-end chance for some light precipitation both Saturday and Sunday.

DISCUSSION
As of 300 PM EST Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Remaining dry and mild through Wednesday with a light breeze.

Strong surface high pressure (~1028 mb) to the south and southwest dominates the local weather today with mostly sunny skies and temperatures generally in the mid 50s as of the time of writing.
Temperatures have begun overachieving slightly as SSW winds allow a warmer airmass over the area. High temperatures will likely be a few degrees above current obs in the upper 50s to near 60F in the SE VA/NE NC. Despite remaining mostly clear tonight, temperatures will be more mild than last night with lows in the mid to upper 30s. Mid to high clouds will increase Wednesday ahead of the next cold front, but SSW flow will remain, keeping temperatures mild with highs in the mid to upper 50s (lower 50s for the Eastern Shore).

KEY MESSAGE 2...Low pressure develops along an approaching cold front Wed night, and passes by N of the area on Thurs. Some light precipitation is possible late Wed, potentially ending as a brief period of non- accumulating to trace light snow Thurs morning.

The 12z/13 models continue to advance a faster, drier solution for the mid to late week system. A potent northern stream shortwave will dig south from the Ohio Valley into the northern mid- Atlantic late Wednesday through Thursday, as a dampening southern stream shortwave traverses the Gulf coast. Models continue to agree that our area will be sandwiched between the two streams in the moisture deprived region. QPF totals remain very low with just a few hundredths of an inch as most moisture gets hung up on the Appalachian mountains or pulled towards the southern stream, resulting in the colder air chasing the moisture which this pattern rarely results in tangible snowfall. A few light showers are possible with the cold front Wed afternoon/evening. With this, any snow on the tail end of the precip Thurs morning will only produce up to a trace amount. Will note, the 12z/HRRR depicts cooler air moving in faster, which would allow for more accumulating snowfall, but this type of system continuously brings the colder air slower (which was observed with the last system), so there's very low confidence in the HRRR at this point.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Turning colder, with below normal temperatures expected from Thursday night into early next week. Mainly dry throughout the period, though there is a low-end chance for some light precipitation both Saturday and Sunday.

Behind the strong Arctic cold front Wed/Thurs, strong CAA will bring below average temperatures and breezy/windy conditions. Highs Thurs and Fri will be in the 30s to lower 40s. Low temperatures will be the coldest Thursday night in the mid teens, additionally with near single digit wind chills. Will need to monitor this for any potential Cold Weather Advisories.

The next pair of cold fronts will cross the local area Sat/Sun as an upper level trough remains over the eastern CONUS. These fronts once again look to carry little moisture to the area as they progressively moves towards the East Coast, unable to tap into any southern stream moisture. Models have trended slightly drier with now only slight PoPs (15-20%) during the day Sat and again on Sun.
Another round of cold temperatures behind the fronts will bring below average temperatures with highs in the 30s and lows in the teens to low 20s.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 550 PM EST Tuesday...

VFR conditions prevail across all terminals through the 00z/14 TAF period. Mainly clear skies are present across the area currently, with FEW- SCT high clouds moving into the northern portions. W/SW winds around 10 kt will continue through the period. Additionally, some low- level wind shear is expected this evening into early Wednesday morning, especially at RIC and SBY, as a weak LLJ is positioned over the northern half of the area. SCT- BKN high clouds will return across the entire area Wednesday morning with the cloud shield from the next approaching low pressure system to the north and associated cold front.

Outlook: The cold front will cross the local area Wednesday evening through early Thursday with some light rain showers possible. A brief period of sub-VFR conditions will be possible early Thu morning, as a secondary front crosses the region, ushering in a much colder airmass for the late week period into the weekend.

MARINE
As of 300 PM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- SCA conditions are expected tonight into early Wednesday morning due to elevated SW winds.

- A strong cold front crosses the area Wednesday night, bringing strong NW winds Wednesday night through Thursday night. High end SCA or low end Gale conditions are likely.

- Tidal anomalies remain low for the foreseeable future.

Latest surface analysis depicted high pressure offshore with a strong area of low pressure over the N Great Lakes. SSW winds were generally 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt across the coastal waters.
The aforementioned low moves E tonight while high pressure continues to slide offshore. This will result in a tightening pressure gradient, aided by a strengthening SW low-level jet, tonight into Wed morning. SW winds increase to 15-20 kt on the Chesapeake Bay with the potential for 20-25 kt sustained winds over the coastal waters N of Parramore Island. Gusts up to 25-30 kt are also expected across the coastal waters. As such, SCAs remain in effect across the Ches Bay and coastal waters north of Cape Charles Light tonight into early Wed morning. The only change was to start all SCAs at 6 PM this evening. SW winds remain elevated (but below SCA criteria) Wed into Wed evening ahead of the strong cold front.

A strong cold front is expected to move through the region Wed night as the area of low pressure continues to move E into New England, with another low likely forming in New England to the S of the parent low. This front will bring an abrupt wind shift to the NW, along with a substantial increase in the wind speeds to 20-25 kt with gusts up to around 30 kt for most of the local waters. These elevated winds likely persist into Thursday night as CAA maximizes.
High-end SCA to low-end Gale conditions are expected given the strength of the CAA. Will note that the HRRR and ARW show Gale conditions immediately behind the front which may need to be covered by an SMW (if short in duration) or Gale Warning (if longer in duration). Wind probs for 34 kt have increased to 30-45% across the portions of the middle Bay early Thu morning but remain <10% for the rest of the Ches Bay and most of the coastal waters (15-35% across the N coastal waters). As such, confidence was too low to issue Gale Warnings at this time. However, if the trend for higher winds continues, a Gale Warning may be warranted for a portion of the local waters (greatest chance across the N waters).

Winds quickly subside around sunrise Friday morning before elevated SW flow returns late Fri afternoon into Sat morning ahead of another cold front with SCAs likely. The current model consensus pushes this front through Sat night with additional SCA headlines possible as winds become W/NW into early next week.

Seas were 2-3 ft this afternoon with 1-2 ft waves in the bay. Seas and waves build to 3-5 ft and 2-3 ft respectively tonight through Wednesday morning. Elevated seas and waves return Wed night and continue into Thu night in the wake of the cold front.

Tidal anomalies remain low for the foreseeable future. Tides generally trend lower by the 17th (Sat) with low water (and Low Water Advisories) possible across much of the coastal locations. The best chance for low water is across the lower Ches Bay, James River, York River, and the Atlantic coast.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ630>632- 634-650-652-654.