Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Montrose, VA

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 200 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Remaining dry and mostly sunny today with inland temperatures in the upper 70s to around 80F, cooler at the coast.

This afternoon, ~1026 mb high pressure is centered off the Mid Atlantic coast. Skies are mostly sunny across the region with only a few higher clouds. Temperatures are generally in the mid to upper 70s inland and 60s along the coast. Highs this afternoon will run around 80F inland and the upper 60s to lower 70s along the immediate coast.

Tonight, high pressure will continue pushing farther offshore, allowing for a gradual increase in low level moisture as the flow becomes more from the SE. Expect lows mainly in the low to mid 50s (a few pockets of upper 40s possible across the MD Eastern Shore). Expect at least patchy fog overnight/early Friday, mainly along and east of I-95 where the least amount of clouds will reside, closest to the high offshore.

A warm front nudges north into the area during the day on Friday, bringing an increase in cloud cover and a chance for scattered showers and a few thunderstorms. The best chances for any scattered showers will mainly be along and west of I-95, with less of a chance further north and east. However, there are some models showing some increasing low level convergence and modest moisture pooling into interior NE NC and SE VA as well, so have increased PoPs in these areas as well. Overall QPF amounts are light, with generally less than 0.10" expected through Friday, but some locally higher amounts will be possible. High temperatures on Friday will generally climb to the upper 70s to lower 80s.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 315 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms on Saturday ahead of a cold front.

- Cooler and dry on Sunday.

A cold front will approach from the NW Saturday morning, crossing the region later Saturday, and pushing off the coast Saturday night.
Shower and thunderstorm chances increase later in the morning into the afternoon, before diminishing from NW to SE by Saturday evening.
The broad QPF footprint with this system is less than 0.50" (averaging 0.20-0.40"), but with convection, expect a lot of local variation. Will need to keep an eye on the potential for a few stronger storms Saturday afternoon, especially if the the morning activity can end quicker, leading to some clearing ahead of the actual frontal passage (as the 12z NAM depicts). It should be noted that the best dynamics are still north of the area. The latest SPC Day 2 only shows general thunder for the local area at this time.
Remaining above average on Saturday with highs generally in the upper 70s to lower 80s. The sfc low does become rather intense Saturday night off the coast of Maine, bringing a significant push of much cooler and drier air back into the CWA Saturday night. Lows will drop into the 40s to lower 50s Sunday morning, along with gusty N winds. Cooler but dry with plentiful sunshine on Sunday with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 315 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Near normal temperatures Monday, with much warmer, above average temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Dry through Tuesday, a chance for showers Wednesday with the next front.

With a fairly strong upper level ridge over the central CONUS, and a deep closed upper low off the New England coast, the NW flow aloft will lead to a strong area of high pressure building SE into the local area into early next week. Sunday night/Monday morning will be quite cool with widespread lows in the 40s away from the immediate coast (suspect guidance is too warm). Temperatures on Monday afternoon will be close to slightly above average with highs in the mid to upper 70s inland and upper 60s to lower 70s at the coast.
Remaining dry Tuesday, but with above normal temperatures returning as the high moves offshore, allowing increasing southerly flow once again (highs back into the 80s). By Wednesday, the next front is expected to be approaching from the west. Chc PoPs return later in the day, but temperatures look well above avg out ahead of this, well into the 80s, with ~90F possible for highs. The front crosses the area and then likely stalls near or south of the local area, leading to the potential for unsettled conditions on Thursday.

AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 200 PM EDT Thursday...

VFR conditions prevail through 08z/25, patchy fog develops after 08z with best chances for sub-VFR conditions at PHF, ECG, and SBY. Mainly high clouds expected through a majority of the forecast period, with lowering clouds late in the period (remaining VFR). E-SE winds this afternoon generally around 10 knots or less, diminishing to light and variable or calm overnight. Any patchy fog dissipates after 13z, with all sites expected to return to VFR.

Outlook: Scattered showers possible later Friday afternoon/evening, becoming widespread along with a few tstms Saturday as the next cold front pushes into the area. VFR conditions return for Sunday.

MARINE
As of 235 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- A relatively benign marine pattern persists through Friday.

- Winds increase ahead of a cold front Friday night into Saturday with low-end Small Craft conditions possible.

- High end Small Craft Advisory or low-end Gale conditions are likely Saturday night into early Sunday behind a strong cold front.

Light easterly flow persists across the marine area this afternoon with high pressure centered offshore of New England. Similarly benign conditions continue into tonight, with the flow gradually veering to SE Friday morning. Wind speeds increase to 10-15 kt Friday afternoon and evening but remain predominantly sub-SCA through early Friday night. A cold front approaches from the NW later Friday night as low pressure tracks well N/NW of the area.
With the pressure gradient tightening, an increase in southerly winds is anticipated late Friday night through Saturday. While prevailing winds generally stay 10-15 kt, marginal Small Craft Advisory conditions, with a few gusts of 20-25 kt, are possible during the first half of Saturday. A brief lull in the winds follows into later Saturday, before the cold front crosses the waters Saturday night.

As mentioned above, a rather strong cold front passage is forecast Saturday night and a (brief) robust period of CAA is expected immediately behind the front. Additionally, pressure rises on the order of 6-9 mb/6 hr are depicted in NAM and GFS output. This suggests the potential for high-end Small Craft or low-end Gale conditions for a ~12 hr period Saturday night into early Sunday morning. While wind probabilities for >34 kt gusts have decreased with this forecast cycle, still think there is a decent chance for a quick period of gusts to around 35 kt, especially along and immediately behind the surge of cooler/drier air. It is still uncertain whether Gale headlines will be needed, or whether these higher winds could be handled w/ short-fused Special Marine Warnings. For now, the forecast is for winds to become N/NNW 20-30 kt (highest across the Chesapeake Bay and coastal waters) with gusts up to 35 kt behind the front Saturday night. Small Craft Advisory winds continue through most of Sunday, followed by much lighter winds Sunday night into the first half of next week. SCAs potentially return early Wednesday in elevated SW flow, though uncertainty is high at this range.

Waves in the Chesapeake Bay of 1-2 ft and seas of 2-3 ft persist through Friday. Seas build to 3-4 ft Friday night with some occasional 4-5 ft seas across the N coastal waters on Saturday. Seas and waves build to 4-6 ft Saturday night into Sunday wit the elevated northerly flow behind the cold front.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.