Tuesday, February18, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Exmore, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:49AMSunset 5:49PM Tuesday February 18, 2020 1:53 AM EST (06:53 UTC) Moonrise 3:23AMMoonset 1:11PM Illumination 29% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ631 Chesapeake Bay From Windmill Point To New Point Comfort Va- 955 Pm Est Mon Feb 17 2020
Overnight..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Tue..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot. A chance of rain in the afternoon.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt after midnight, then becoming N 15 to 20 kt late. Waves 1 to 2 ft, building to 3 ft late. Rain likely.
Wed..N winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of rain in the morning.
Wed night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Thu night..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft. A chance of snow after midnight.
Fri..N winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Fri night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
ANZ600 955 Pm Est Mon Feb 17 2020
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. Weak high pressure will slide off the new england coast tonight. A cold front will cross the area waters Tuesday night. Low pressure tracks south of the waters later in the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Exmore, VA
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location: 37.55, -75.92     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 180646 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 146 AM EST Tue Feb 18 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure pushes off the coast today. A cold front crosses the area late tonight, then stalls along the Gulf coast Thursday. Low pressure tracks northeast along this boundary Thursday night into Friday as arctic high pressure plunges into the nations mid section.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/. As of 940 PM EST Monday .

Latest surface analysis shows ~1033mb sfc high pressure centered over the Saint Lawrence Valley of srn Quebec, and the high is ridging SSW into the local area. A weak trough of low pressure is noted offshore along the Gulf Stream. Nearly zonal westerly flow prevails aloft. Overall, a pleasant cool evening under a mostly clear sky, with temperatures ranging from the upper 30s to low 40s for most locations and some mid 30s for portions of the Nrn Neck and Lower MD Ern Shore.

For tonight, the sfc high builds east into northern New England and sfc low pressure deepens across the mid/upper MS valley and rapidly moves ENE to the Great Lakes. The evening starts off mostly clear, but as the low level winds shift to the SE, and 925-850mb winds become more SSW, expect increasing low level moisture and a strengthening inversion to develop later tonight. This should allow for increasing low clouds after 08z and possibly some fog development as well. Low temperatures have been lowered slightly as the high is still building in from the NNE, and the sky is mostly clear and should remain mainly clear for a few more hours. Current forecast lows are in the mid 30s to low 40s, with some low 30s possible from the Nrn Neck to the MD Ern Shore. These values should be achieved over the next few hours before temperatures begin rising late due to increasing clouds and low- level moisture. Have maintained the mention for patchy fog after 09Z and through ~14z Tue for central VA and parts of the VA Piedmont and interior NE NC (based on consensus of guidance).

A stronger cold front approaches the area Tuesday (but will remain to our west) as ~1045 mb high pressure builds from srn Alberta/Saskatchewan to wrn North Dakota. Low pressure over the nrn Great Lakes Tue AM quickly tracks NE to nrn New England/srn Quebec by Tuesday night. The associated (trailing) cold front is progged to cross the area late Tuesday night-Wed AM. Latest 12Z/17 models are generally dry through midday, with PoPs increasing during the aftn from W to E. It is still looking like the associated nrn stream shortwave (and best upper forcing) misses us to the north. However, the latest 00z/17 guidance shows the nrn flank of a series of srn stream shortwaves (and the best deep-layer moisture) may clip the CWA (especially southern/eastern zones) into Tue evening. Still, model QPFs across through 00z Wed are light (0.1-0.2" on average). Have maintained high chc Pops W in the aftn to low chc E, with mainly slight chc PoPs 15Z to 18z increasing to ~40-50% along and west of I-95 . with 20-40% PoPs E of I-95 during the aftn- early evening. Highs will be tricky given a sfc high to the NE and a lingering (albeit relatively weak) cool wedge along and W of I-95/I-85. Have sided close to the cooler NAM/MET numbers in this region while favoring a blend farther E where a stronger SSW flow should prevail. Highs will range from 65-70F far SE VA and NE NC to the lower 50s in the NW Piedmont.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/. As of 345 PM EST Monday .

As the front passes through Tue night, will have PoPs of 50-70% across the area (highest SE) with additional forecast QPFs of around 0.15-0.25" on average from 00-12z Wed, which lines up well w/ model consensus. The 12z/17 GFS has trended closer to this consensus but still remains a bit higher. Rain ends across NW zones Wed morning, but some post- frontal pcpn is likely across far srn VA/NE NC through 18z Wed. Could even see some lingering light rain across far SE VA/NE NC Wed aftn while partial clearing occurs across central/nrn zones. QPFs on Wed are generally 0.10" or less (highest across NE NC). The strong, ~1048 mb high becomes centered over nrn Iowa by late Wednesday night and it should have a enough of a push to the SE to dry out the local area as low- level CAA continues while surface winds veer from the N-NNE.

Temperatures fall into the upper 30s-low 40s N to upper 40s in NE NC by 12z Wed as the front moves S of the CWA. It will struggle to warm up much on Wed, with highs only within a few degrees of 50F (probably coolest near the coast in SE VA/NE NC with onshore flow and lingering clouds). Lows Wed night fall into the upper 20s- mid 30s in most areas, with mid- upper 30s over far SE VA/NE NC.

Strong (1045 mb+) high pressure will slowly build from the Midwest toward the region late this week before becoming centered near/over the area by Saturday morning. Aloft, a shortwave trough will be diving SE from the nrn Great Lakes to the nrn Mid-Atlantic during the Thu-Thu night timeframe. At the same time, a series of srn stream shortwaves will track from the srn Plains to SC/NC (and potentially srn VA) in W-WSW flow aloft. Depending on how the northern/southern stream features interact/phase with each other, there is a chc that parts of our area (most likely SE VA/NE NC) will see light rain Thursday afternoon and then potentially changing to rain/snow before ending as mostly snow Thu night/early Fri AM. 12z/17 EPS trended slightly upward with respect to snow potential from late Thu- Thu night while the GFS/GEFS is genly more suppressed and has minimal chances for accumulating snow. There is a lot of variability in the deterministic solutions (and would not be surprised to see large run to run changes in the next day or so). However, there does appear to be enough consensus from the ECMWF/EPS over the past few runs to maintain or raise PoPs slightly to 40-50% across SE VA/NE NC Thu night and to include 20% PoPs Thu night as far N as metro RIC. The EPS has an area with >30% chance for 3" snow or more for interior SE VA/NE NC. Lows Thu night near 20F NW (with a dry forecast) to around 30F SE.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. As of 345 PM EST Monday .

he 12Z/17 GFS and 12Z/17 ECMWF (along with their respective ensembles) are in fairly good agreement through the extended period. High pressure will build from the Plains/MS Valley, eastward into and over the region Fri into early Sun morning. The high will shift off the coast and into the Atlc during Sun, with low pressure moving into the Middle MS Valley by Mon morning. This low will then track ENE toward the area during Mon. Dry/sunny and chilly on Fri with highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Sunny and milder on Sat with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Partly to mostly sunny and warmer on Sun with highs ranging through the 50s. Becoming mostly cloudy or cloudy late Sun night through Mon, with increasing chances for rain showers. Highs on Mon will range through the 50s. Lows will range through the 20s Fri night, in the mid 20s to mid 30s Sat night, and in the mid 30s to lower 40s Sun night.

AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. As of 140 AM EST Tuesday .

Mainly VFR conditions to start off the forecast period as high pressure slowly moves off the coast today, The exception will be for areas of IFR/MVFR fog thru 12Z. Already seeing this as PHF's VSBY conts to bounce up and down. MVFR clouds overspread the area Tues ahead of an apprchg cold front that will cross the area Tues nite. Some light rain shwrs are psbl thru the daylight hrs, but the latest dats is showing the bulk of the rain will be aftr 00Z where CIGS/VSBYS will likely drop with lcl IFR conditions expected by the end of this forecast period. Winds become SW aob 10 kts today ahead of the cold front.

OUTLOOK . The cold front will cross the region after 06Z Wed continuing the restricted flight conditions in rain/fog. Wind shift to the NNe behing the front. High pressure returns Wednesday aftn into Thursday morning. Low pressure tracks across the Southeast Conus Thursday aftn into Thursday night. This will actually bring a chc (30-50%) of initially a rain/snow mix then all snow for far srn VA and NE NC along with degraded flight conditions. High pressure returns Friday into Saturday.

MARINE. As of 345 PM EST Monday .

High pressure centered over southern Ontario is ridging southward into the Mid Atlantic states as weak low pressure continues to pull slowly eastward from the Carolina coast. Winds are generally from the NE between 10-15 knots. Waves are 1-2 ft in the bay and seas range from 2-3 ft offshore.

Winds veer to the east tonight and to the southeast at 5-10 knots by Tuesday morning as the ridge axis drifts eastward and offshore. Flow becomes south/southwesterly into Tuesday afternoon but remains in the 5-10 knot range in the bay and 5-15 knots offshore. Low pressure moves across the Northeast Tuesday evening, bringing a cold front southeast toward the region Tuesday night. Winds turn to the NW behind the front and increase to 15-20 knots through late morning Wednesday. SCA headlines will likely be required for the bay/sound (for wind) and for the coastal waters (mostly for seas near 5 ft) during this period.

The extended portion of the marine forecast remains in flux with the potential for low pressure to form off the Southeast coast on Thursday as arctic high pressure over the central Plains builds southeast. How far north the low comes will have significant impacts on the wind/wave/seas forecast. Regardless, expect building seas (especially S) and increasing NE winds late in the week as the gradient between the incoming high and the coastal low tightens.

HYDROLOGY. As of 940 PM EST Monday .

The River Flood Warning for the Nottoway at Sebrell has been cancelled as the level dropped below flood stage late Mon eve.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . LKB/MPR NEAR TERM . AJZ/LKB SHORT TERM . LKB LONG TERM . ERI/TMG AVIATION . MPR MARINE . RHR HYDROLOGY . MPR


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 5 mi54 min 1026.2 hPa (-0.7)
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 13 mi54 min 43°F 47°F1025.2 hPa (-0.7)
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 18 mi42 min ESE 5.8 G 7.8 46°F1029.3 hPa
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 27 mi60 min 46°F
44072 30 mi34 min SE 5.8 G 7.8 44°F
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 30 mi54 min 45°F 1026 hPa (-0.6)
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 37 mi54 min 44°F 47°F1025.1 hPa (-0.6)
CHBV2 37 mi60 min 45°F 1024.1 hPa
44087 38 mi24 min 46°F1 ft
44064 39 mi34 min ENE 5.8 G 7.8 1024.9 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 40 mi30 min E 5.8 G 7.8 42°F 45°F1025.5 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 42 mi54 min 1025.6 hPa (-0.7)
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 43 mi84 min Calm 40°F 1026 hPa37°F
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 43 mi54 min 46°F 1025.3 hPa (-0.7)
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 45 mi54 min 1024.8 hPa (-0.7)
44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147) 45 mi24 min 46°F3 ft
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 47 mi54 min 1025 hPa (-0.7)
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 47 mi54 min 42°F 45°F1025.6 hPa (-0.6)
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 49 mi54 min 44°F 1025.4 hPa (-0.9)

Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Melfa / Accomack Airport, VA11 mi59 minN 05.00 miFog/Mist36°F35°F97%1025.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMFV

Wind History from MFV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--NE7NE10NE12NE10NE7E4N7E4E9E5CalmNE3NE3E4E3E4E3E3
1 day agoSW4S7S5S6S7S5S6S5SW11SW10SW9SW8SW6SW4SW4S4CalmE3SE3S6S4S7S3Calm
2 days agoN6N8NE7NE4NE6N5N5N6CalmNE4E4E3SE4S6SE7CalmCalmCalmCalmSE4S4S4S4S3

Tide / Current Tables for Gaskins Point, Occohannock Creek, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Gaskins Point
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:34 AM EST     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:22 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:42 AM EST     1.68 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:50 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 01:11 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 01:43 PM EST     0.05 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:45 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:01 PM EST     1.32 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0-00.20.511.41.61.71.61.310.60.30.10.10.20.60.91.21.31.210.80.4

Tide / Current Tables for Nassawadox Creek, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Nassawadox Creek
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:22 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:06 AM EST     1.78 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:50 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:28 PM EST     0.06 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:11 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:45 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:25 PM EST     1.39 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-00.20.611.41.71.81.71.41.10.60.30.10.10.30.60.91.21.41.41.20.80.50.1

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.