Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Exmore, VA
November 10, 2024 6:46 AM EST (11:46 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:38 AM Sunset 5:00 PM Moonrise 2:00 PM Moonset 12:14 AM |
ANZ631 Chesapeake Bay From Windmill Point To New Point Comfort Va- 402 Am Est Sun Nov 10 2024
.small craft advisory in effect from this evening through Monday morning - .
Through 7 am - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Today - S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tonight - S winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt late this evening. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely.
Mon - SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.
Mon night - W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Tue - N winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft.
Tue night - N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft.
Wed - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Wed night - E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming n. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu - W winds 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu night - NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
ANZ600 402 Am Est Sun Nov 10 2024
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
high pressure slides offshore today into tonight. A strong cold front crosses the mid-atlantic coast late Monday night into Tuesday morning. High pressure builds north of the region through midweek.
high pressure slides offshore today into tonight. A strong cold front crosses the mid-atlantic coast late Monday night into Tuesday morning. High pressure builds north of the region through midweek.
NEW! Add second zone forecast
Gaskins Point Click for Map Sun -- 12:14 AM EST Moonset Sun -- 05:04 AM EST 1.70 feet High Tide Sun -- 06:38 AM EST Sunrise Sun -- 11:45 AM EST 0.33 feet Low Tide Sun -- 02:00 PM EST Moonrise Sun -- 04:56 PM EST Sunset Sun -- 05:26 PM EST 1.85 feet High Tide Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION |   |
Gaskins Point, Occohannock Creek, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia, Tide feet
12 am |
0.3 |
1 am |
0.5 |
2 am |
0.9 |
3 am |
1.3 |
4 am |
1.6 |
5 am |
1.7 |
6 am |
1.6 |
7 am |
1.4 |
8 am |
1.2 |
9 am |
0.8 |
10 am |
0.6 |
11 am |
0.4 |
12 pm |
0.3 |
1 pm |
0.5 |
2 pm |
0.8 |
3 pm |
1.3 |
4 pm |
1.6 |
5 pm |
1.8 |
6 pm |
1.8 |
7 pm |
1.7 |
8 pm |
1.4 |
9 pm |
1 |
10 pm |
0.7 |
11 pm |
0.4 |
Nassawadox Creek Click for Map Sun -- 12:15 AM EST Moonset Sun -- 04:28 AM EST 1.79 feet High Tide Sun -- 06:38 AM EST Sunrise Sun -- 10:30 AM EST 0.37 feet Low Tide Sun -- 02:00 PM EST Moonrise Sun -- 04:50 PM EST 1.96 feet High Tide Sun -- 04:56 PM EST Sunset Sun -- 11:11 PM EST 0.22 feet Low Tide Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION |   |
Nassawadox Creek, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia, Tide feet
12 am |
0.6 |
1 am |
0.9 |
2 am |
1.3 |
3 am |
1.6 |
4 am |
1.8 |
5 am |
1.8 |
6 am |
1.6 |
7 am |
1.3 |
8 am |
0.9 |
9 am |
0.6 |
10 am |
0.4 |
11 am |
0.4 |
12 pm |
0.6 |
1 pm |
0.9 |
2 pm |
1.3 |
3 pm |
1.7 |
4 pm |
1.9 |
5 pm |
2 |
6 pm |
1.8 |
7 pm |
1.5 |
8 pm |
1.1 |
9 pm |
0.7 |
10 pm |
0.4 |
11 pm |
0.2 |
Area Discussion for Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 101112 AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 612 AM EST Sun Nov 10 2024
SYNOPSIS
Dry weather is expected through the first part of today. Rain showers are likely this evening through Monday afternoon, though aerial rain totals remain light. Mainly dry and seasonable weather is expected for most of next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 610 AM EST Sunday...
Key Messages:
- Starting off dry today with gradually increasing cloud cover through the afternoon.
- Isolated showers are possible by late this afternoon, with more widespread shower activity tonight. Rainfall totals stay on the light side.
High pressure is centered along the Mid-Atlantic coast this morning.
Further west, a cold front is developing over the MS River Valley.
Aloft, a broad ridge axis extends from the Carolinas into Quebec and Ontario, with a trough over the Midwest. Higher clouds, associated with showers/convection over the OH Valley, continue to stream in from the west and will thicken through the day.
Temps fell quickly overnight when skies were clear and winds calm, with several sites getting near or even just below freezing. The coldest temps were on the MD Eastern Shore. With increasing clouds, expect a steady trend in temps through sunrise or even an slight increase. Either way, a chilly morning.
The weather for the rest of today will start out dry, followed by increasing chances for showers as the day and especially evening progresses. Skies also gradually become mostly cloudy late this morning into the afternoon. Highs range from the lower 60s across the Piedmont to the mid 60s in the I-95 corridor and on the MD Eastern to the upper 60s to lower 70s closer to the coast and in NE NC. Only an isolated shower or two is expected through the late afternoon across the Piedmont and PoPs are 20% or less during this time. However, the upper shortwave gets closer to the area this evening and tonight, with height falls commencing after 00z/7 PM. Thus, expecting increasing coverage of showers tonight. Model consensus PWATs are 1.5-1.7" overnight, which is near the upper end of climatology (using WAL) for this time of the year. Soundings also show around 500 J/kg of MUCAPE. This PWAT/CAPE overlap argues that there could be moderate to locally heavy rainfall in any shower. Will continue to keep thunder out of the forecast given the time of year and that short-term models show very little lightning density. Still, a lightning strike or two cannot be ruled out (especially across the SE).
Aerial QPF still looks to be on the light side, with totals averaging around 0.25". With the CAMs in range showing some convective enhancement over SE VA and NE NC late tonight, QPF did inch up some in these areas to 0.25-0.5". Am still expecting the higher totals near 0.5" to be very localized. Overall, while any rain is beneficial, this system likely won't have any appreciable impact on the drought conditions over the area. Lows tonight will be relatively mild given the clouds/precip and in the mid-upper 50s for most of the area and lower 60s far SE VA and NE NC.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
As of 315 AM EST Sunday...
Key Messages:
- Mild Monday with lingering showers over SE VA/NE NC.
- A widespread freeze is possible Tuesday night away from the coast.
CAMs agree that the main batch of showers should be offshore around sunrise Monday morning. However, another weak disturbance aloft will track through southern VA and likely spark scattered showers over SE VA and NE NC through the early afternoon. Thus, have chance PoPs (30- 50%) through 1 PM Monday, with shower chances becoming confined to the far SE by the later afternoon. Skies also gradually clear from NW to SE through the day, with mostly sunny skies probable by the afternoon (outside of SE locations where clouds linger). Forecast highs are well above average for mid-November and in the mid 70s. A few upper 70s are possible in central VA, especially near the Richmond metro. Mainly clear skies Monday night with lows in the 40s inland and lower 50s along the immediate coast.
The surface front and wind shift eventually crosses the area late Monday night-early Tuesday morning. Strong high pressure (~1032 mb)
also settles N of the area. Gusty northerly winds are likely post- FROPA, especially at the coast. Depending on how low dew points get, at least some fire danger could be present Tuesday afternoon given the gusty winds. Highs will be much cooler and in the lower 60s.
Lows for Tuesday night have trended quite a bit cooler from the previous forecast and there is a good possibility of temperatures near or just below freezing for most inland locations. This could necessitate freeze headlines in areas where the growing season is still ongoing. A breeze along the coast should keep Hampton Roads and coastal NE NC in the lower 40s, mitigating frost/freeze concerns here.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 315 AM EST Sunday...
Key Messages:
- Seasonable temperatures through the middle and later part of the week. Wednesday looks to be the coolest day.
- Some uncertainty Thursday regarding rainfall potential. Will maintain a mainly dry forecast at this time.
High pressure remains in control into Wednesday, keeping dry conditions in place. Aloft, the flow turns to the NNW. Some of the coolest highs of the fall season so far are possible Wednesday and the current forecast has mid-upper 50s for most of the area. Those along the Albemarle Sound may still squeak out 60 degrees. Cold again Wednesday night, with lows in the 30s inland and 40s at the coast.
There remains uncertainty for the Thursday system. The 00z suite of deterministic guidance has actually diverged further this cycle, with the GFS and ECMWF showing quite different 500 mb and surface pattern evolutions. The ECMWF tracks the Midwest disturbance well into the southern states, with low pressure at the surface developing offshore of SC, while the GFS tracks it through the Great Lakes and northern Mid-Atlantic, with very weak low pressure offshore near Bermuda. The CMC is somewhere in between these solutions. None of these solutions produce much in the way of rainfall for the local area, though it should be noted the ECMWF solution leads to moderate-heavy rainfall not far to our SW.
Unsurprisingly, the respective ensemble suites follow the trends of these deterministic solutions, with the ECMWF ensemble showing higher (but still low) probs for >0.5" than the GEFS. Will maintain a mainly dry forecast at this juncture (per NBM), but have 20% PoPs areawide for most of Thursday. Either way, some increase in cloud cover is a good bet. Highs Thursday are currently in the upper 50s-lower 60s (coolest NW), with lows in the 30s inland and 40s at the coast.
It looks very nice Friday into next weekend as high pressure likely situates over the area. Forecast highs and lows are near to slightly above seasonal norms.
AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 610 AM EST Sunday...
The main aviation focus through the 12z period will be gradually thickening and lowering clouds, along with widespread shower activity after ~00z. SCT-BKN cirrus is noted early this morning and should become BKN at all sites by the late morning.
Low/mid- level CU (bases 4-5k ft) may also try to develop after 14z or so today, based on forecast model soundings. This is in addition to the BKN- OVC high cloud layer above. There is a low chance of a shower after 21z in the Piedmont this afternoon.
Otherwise, showers are then likely areawide after 00z Monday with enough confidence to include -SHRA in the TAFs. CIGs also lower after 00z Monday, with the potential for MVFR CIGs near or just after 06z Monday. There is also some potential for low- level wind shear at RIC and SBY after 06z with a LLJ overhead, but confidence is not quite high enough to include in this set of TAFs. Winds today will start off southerly 5-10 kt and shift SSW/SW ~10 kt late tonight (10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt at SBY).
Outlook: Showers continue into Monday morning and degraded flight conditions are likely (mainly IFR-MVFR CIGs ). Another frontal passage brings clearing and a return to VFR conditions later Monday through the middle of next week.
MARINE
As of 345 AM EST Sunday...
Key Messages:
- Small Craft Advisories are in effect from tonight into Monday morning north of New Point Comfort in the Chesapeake Bay and north of Parramore Island in the ocean.
- Additional Small Craft Advisories are likely late Monday night through Tuesday night following a strong cold front.
1030mb high pressure is centered in vicinity of the Mid- Atlantic coast early this morning. The wind is mainly E to SE at 5- 10kt. Seas range from 2-3ft N to ~4ft S, with 1-2ft waves in the lower Ches. Bay and ~1ft farther N. High pressure slides offshore today into tonight. The wind becomes S 10-15kt today, and then becomes SW 15-20kt with gusts to 25kt across the northern tier of the marine area as a 35-45kt LLJ moves across the region tonight into Monday morning. Elsewhere, a SW wind will mainly be 10-15kt with gusts to ~20kt and 10-15kt S of the VA/NC border. The highest probability (>70%) for sustained 18kt in the Ches. Bay is N of New Point Comfort. Therefore SCA flags have been issued for N of New Point Comfort from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM Monday. Seas are expected to build to 4-6ft offshore N of Chincoteague, with SCA flags in effect from 1 AM tonight through 1 PM early Monday aftn. Elsewhere, seas should build to 3-4ft, with 2-3ft waves in the mouth of the Bay.
A strong cold front crosses the region late Monday night into early Tuesday morning as 1030mb high pressure builds N across the Great Lakes. A secondary surge is possible Tuesday night as the high strengthens and slides E into New England. 00z/10 numerical guidance depicts 3-4mb/3hr pressure rises early Tuesday with 950mb wind up to 30kt. A N wind of 20-25kt with gusts ~30kt is expected to develop over the Ches. Bay and ocean, with 15-20kt with gusts ~25kt elsewhere late Monday night into Tuesday morning, with the wind becoming NNE 15-20kt with gusts to 25kt later Tuesday into Tuesday night. SCAs are likely for the entire marine area based on the latest guidance. Seas build to 4-6ft N to 5-7ft S with 3-4f waves in the Ches. Bay. High pressure briefly returns Wednesday into Wednesday night, before another cold front potentially moves across the coast Thursday into Thursday night.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Monday for ANZ630-631.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Monday for ANZ650- 652.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 612 AM EST Sun Nov 10 2024
SYNOPSIS
Dry weather is expected through the first part of today. Rain showers are likely this evening through Monday afternoon, though aerial rain totals remain light. Mainly dry and seasonable weather is expected for most of next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 610 AM EST Sunday...
Key Messages:
- Starting off dry today with gradually increasing cloud cover through the afternoon.
- Isolated showers are possible by late this afternoon, with more widespread shower activity tonight. Rainfall totals stay on the light side.
High pressure is centered along the Mid-Atlantic coast this morning.
Further west, a cold front is developing over the MS River Valley.
Aloft, a broad ridge axis extends from the Carolinas into Quebec and Ontario, with a trough over the Midwest. Higher clouds, associated with showers/convection over the OH Valley, continue to stream in from the west and will thicken through the day.
Temps fell quickly overnight when skies were clear and winds calm, with several sites getting near or even just below freezing. The coldest temps were on the MD Eastern Shore. With increasing clouds, expect a steady trend in temps through sunrise or even an slight increase. Either way, a chilly morning.
The weather for the rest of today will start out dry, followed by increasing chances for showers as the day and especially evening progresses. Skies also gradually become mostly cloudy late this morning into the afternoon. Highs range from the lower 60s across the Piedmont to the mid 60s in the I-95 corridor and on the MD Eastern to the upper 60s to lower 70s closer to the coast and in NE NC. Only an isolated shower or two is expected through the late afternoon across the Piedmont and PoPs are 20% or less during this time. However, the upper shortwave gets closer to the area this evening and tonight, with height falls commencing after 00z/7 PM. Thus, expecting increasing coverage of showers tonight. Model consensus PWATs are 1.5-1.7" overnight, which is near the upper end of climatology (using WAL) for this time of the year. Soundings also show around 500 J/kg of MUCAPE. This PWAT/CAPE overlap argues that there could be moderate to locally heavy rainfall in any shower. Will continue to keep thunder out of the forecast given the time of year and that short-term models show very little lightning density. Still, a lightning strike or two cannot be ruled out (especially across the SE).
Aerial QPF still looks to be on the light side, with totals averaging around 0.25". With the CAMs in range showing some convective enhancement over SE VA and NE NC late tonight, QPF did inch up some in these areas to 0.25-0.5". Am still expecting the higher totals near 0.5" to be very localized. Overall, while any rain is beneficial, this system likely won't have any appreciable impact on the drought conditions over the area. Lows tonight will be relatively mild given the clouds/precip and in the mid-upper 50s for most of the area and lower 60s far SE VA and NE NC.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
As of 315 AM EST Sunday...
Key Messages:
- Mild Monday with lingering showers over SE VA/NE NC.
- A widespread freeze is possible Tuesday night away from the coast.
CAMs agree that the main batch of showers should be offshore around sunrise Monday morning. However, another weak disturbance aloft will track through southern VA and likely spark scattered showers over SE VA and NE NC through the early afternoon. Thus, have chance PoPs (30- 50%) through 1 PM Monday, with shower chances becoming confined to the far SE by the later afternoon. Skies also gradually clear from NW to SE through the day, with mostly sunny skies probable by the afternoon (outside of SE locations where clouds linger). Forecast highs are well above average for mid-November and in the mid 70s. A few upper 70s are possible in central VA, especially near the Richmond metro. Mainly clear skies Monday night with lows in the 40s inland and lower 50s along the immediate coast.
The surface front and wind shift eventually crosses the area late Monday night-early Tuesday morning. Strong high pressure (~1032 mb)
also settles N of the area. Gusty northerly winds are likely post- FROPA, especially at the coast. Depending on how low dew points get, at least some fire danger could be present Tuesday afternoon given the gusty winds. Highs will be much cooler and in the lower 60s.
Lows for Tuesday night have trended quite a bit cooler from the previous forecast and there is a good possibility of temperatures near or just below freezing for most inland locations. This could necessitate freeze headlines in areas where the growing season is still ongoing. A breeze along the coast should keep Hampton Roads and coastal NE NC in the lower 40s, mitigating frost/freeze concerns here.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 315 AM EST Sunday...
Key Messages:
- Seasonable temperatures through the middle and later part of the week. Wednesday looks to be the coolest day.
- Some uncertainty Thursday regarding rainfall potential. Will maintain a mainly dry forecast at this time.
High pressure remains in control into Wednesday, keeping dry conditions in place. Aloft, the flow turns to the NNW. Some of the coolest highs of the fall season so far are possible Wednesday and the current forecast has mid-upper 50s for most of the area. Those along the Albemarle Sound may still squeak out 60 degrees. Cold again Wednesday night, with lows in the 30s inland and 40s at the coast.
There remains uncertainty for the Thursday system. The 00z suite of deterministic guidance has actually diverged further this cycle, with the GFS and ECMWF showing quite different 500 mb and surface pattern evolutions. The ECMWF tracks the Midwest disturbance well into the southern states, with low pressure at the surface developing offshore of SC, while the GFS tracks it through the Great Lakes and northern Mid-Atlantic, with very weak low pressure offshore near Bermuda. The CMC is somewhere in between these solutions. None of these solutions produce much in the way of rainfall for the local area, though it should be noted the ECMWF solution leads to moderate-heavy rainfall not far to our SW.
Unsurprisingly, the respective ensemble suites follow the trends of these deterministic solutions, with the ECMWF ensemble showing higher (but still low) probs for >0.5" than the GEFS. Will maintain a mainly dry forecast at this juncture (per NBM), but have 20% PoPs areawide for most of Thursday. Either way, some increase in cloud cover is a good bet. Highs Thursday are currently in the upper 50s-lower 60s (coolest NW), with lows in the 30s inland and 40s at the coast.
It looks very nice Friday into next weekend as high pressure likely situates over the area. Forecast highs and lows are near to slightly above seasonal norms.
AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 610 AM EST Sunday...
The main aviation focus through the 12z period will be gradually thickening and lowering clouds, along with widespread shower activity after ~00z. SCT-BKN cirrus is noted early this morning and should become BKN at all sites by the late morning.
Low/mid- level CU (bases 4-5k ft) may also try to develop after 14z or so today, based on forecast model soundings. This is in addition to the BKN- OVC high cloud layer above. There is a low chance of a shower after 21z in the Piedmont this afternoon.
Otherwise, showers are then likely areawide after 00z Monday with enough confidence to include -SHRA in the TAFs. CIGs also lower after 00z Monday, with the potential for MVFR CIGs near or just after 06z Monday. There is also some potential for low- level wind shear at RIC and SBY after 06z with a LLJ overhead, but confidence is not quite high enough to include in this set of TAFs. Winds today will start off southerly 5-10 kt and shift SSW/SW ~10 kt late tonight (10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt at SBY).
Outlook: Showers continue into Monday morning and degraded flight conditions are likely (mainly IFR-MVFR CIGs ). Another frontal passage brings clearing and a return to VFR conditions later Monday through the middle of next week.
MARINE
As of 345 AM EST Sunday...
Key Messages:
- Small Craft Advisories are in effect from tonight into Monday morning north of New Point Comfort in the Chesapeake Bay and north of Parramore Island in the ocean.
- Additional Small Craft Advisories are likely late Monday night through Tuesday night following a strong cold front.
1030mb high pressure is centered in vicinity of the Mid- Atlantic coast early this morning. The wind is mainly E to SE at 5- 10kt. Seas range from 2-3ft N to ~4ft S, with 1-2ft waves in the lower Ches. Bay and ~1ft farther N. High pressure slides offshore today into tonight. The wind becomes S 10-15kt today, and then becomes SW 15-20kt with gusts to 25kt across the northern tier of the marine area as a 35-45kt LLJ moves across the region tonight into Monday morning. Elsewhere, a SW wind will mainly be 10-15kt with gusts to ~20kt and 10-15kt S of the VA/NC border. The highest probability (>70%) for sustained 18kt in the Ches. Bay is N of New Point Comfort. Therefore SCA flags have been issued for N of New Point Comfort from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM Monday. Seas are expected to build to 4-6ft offshore N of Chincoteague, with SCA flags in effect from 1 AM tonight through 1 PM early Monday aftn. Elsewhere, seas should build to 3-4ft, with 2-3ft waves in the mouth of the Bay.
A strong cold front crosses the region late Monday night into early Tuesday morning as 1030mb high pressure builds N across the Great Lakes. A secondary surge is possible Tuesday night as the high strengthens and slides E into New England. 00z/10 numerical guidance depicts 3-4mb/3hr pressure rises early Tuesday with 950mb wind up to 30kt. A N wind of 20-25kt with gusts ~30kt is expected to develop over the Ches. Bay and ocean, with 15-20kt with gusts ~25kt elsewhere late Monday night into Tuesday morning, with the wind becoming NNE 15-20kt with gusts to 25kt later Tuesday into Tuesday night. SCAs are likely for the entire marine area based on the latest guidance. Seas build to 4-6ft N to 5-7ft S with 3-4f waves in the Ches. Bay. High pressure briefly returns Wednesday into Wednesday night, before another cold front potentially moves across the coast Thursday into Thursday night.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Monday for ANZ630-631.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Monday for ANZ650- 652.
Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KMFV
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KMFV
Wind History Graph: MFV
(wind in knots)GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic
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Wakefield, VA,
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