Sunrise 6:12 AM   Sunset 7:53 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM   Moonset 8:05 AM

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ANZ631 Chesapeake Bay From Windmill Point To New Point Comfort Va- 615 Am Edt Sun Apr 28 2024
Today - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft this morning, then 1 foot or less. A slight chance of showers early this morning. Tonight - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 foot. Mon - SW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot. Mon night - S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. Tue - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Tue night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Wed - W winds 10 kt, becoming N in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers in the afternoon. Wed night - E winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers in the evening. Thu - E winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. Thu night - SE winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.

ANZ600 615 Am Edt Sun Apr 28 2024
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
high pressure becomes anchored off the southeast coast today through Tuesday. A weak cold front crosses the waters Tuesday night into Wednesday.

FXUS61 KAKQ 281048 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 648 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure offshore moves south early this week with a ridge building over the area. Well above normal temperatures are expected through the week. A weak cold front crosses the area Tuesday night with isolated showers or storms possible. Precipitation chances increase late next week into next weekend as another cold front approaches the area.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 650 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

-Well above normal temperatures today.

High pressure lingers offshore early this morning, gradually drifting S today. SCT-BKN cloud cover remains across E portions of the area this morning. Expect clouds to move offshore by late morning with mostly sunny skies this afternoon apart from CU. Temps as of 640 AM were in the 50s. Highs today in the low-mid 80s as SW winds advect warmer air into the area under a building ridge overhead. Lows tonight in the upper 50s SW to the lower 60s NE.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
As of 325 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

-Well above normal temperatures Monday and Tuesday.
-A few isolated showers/storms are possible Tuesday.

A ridge remains over the area through the week with well above normal temps expected. Mon and Tues will likely be the warmest days of the week with highs in the mid-upper 80s (upper 80s for many)
both days. Some locations may reach 90F either day with NBM 50th percentile showing 88-90F. While these summer-like temps will certainly be well above the normal highs of mid 70s (lower 70s at SBY) this time of year, the record highs are in the lower 90s at most climate sites. However, SBY may approach (or exceed) record highs either/both days (see climate section below for more information). Apart from the heat, expect dew points in the upper 50s to lower 60s both days with dry weather on Mon. A weak cold front crosses the area on Tue night with a few showers/storms possible (25-30% PoPs NW and 15-20% PoPs elsewhere) Tue afternoon/evening ahead of the front. Lows in the lower 60s both nights.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 325 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

-Above normal temperatures continue through the week.
-Scattered showers/storms are possible Wednesday.
-Shower/storm chances increase Saturday ahead of a cold front.

Aloft, a ridge builds across the East Coast from mid-late week with well above normal temps expected. At the sfc, high pressure slides off the New England coast Wed into Thu, pushing a backdoor cold front into the area. This front will allow for unsettled weather on Wed with a chance for scattered showers/storms (30-40% PoPs). It will also keep temps cooler along the coast both Wed and Thu with highs in the mid 80s inland and upper 70s along the coast Wed and mid 80s W to upper 60s to around 70F along the coast Thu. Thu will likely remain dry but kept NBM's slight chance for an isolated shower across SW portions of the FA.

As high pressure moves farther offshore Fri, winds become S with highs in the mid-upper 80s inland and upper 70s to lower 80s E.
Remaining warm through the weekend with highs in the low-mid 80s Sat and lower 80s inland with 70s along the coast Sun. A prefrontal trough may spark some showers/storms Fri with 25-30% PoPs.
Shower/storms chances increase Sat as a cold front approaches from the W (35-54% PoPs). Shower/storm chances linger into Sun (30-40% PoPs). Lows remain above normal through next week as well in the 50s- 60s.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 645 AM EDT Sunday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 12z TAF period across the local terminals. SCT-OVC mid level clouds linger over the area early this morning. Clouds move offshore by late morning with mostly sunny skies this afternoon apart from FEW (to potentially SCT) CU developing in the afternoon with CIGs ~5000ft. SSW winds 5-10 kt become SW ~10 kt later this morning through this afternoon.

Outlook: Dry/VFR conditions are expected at all terminals from tonight through at least Tue AM.

MARINE
As of 230 AM EDT Sunday...

Generally benign, sub-SCA conditions, are expected through the forecast period.

Early this morning, high pressure remains centered just off the Mid Atlantic coast. Winds are out of the south and range from 10 to 15 knots, with a few gusts to 20 knots. Seas are generally running around 3 to 4 feet, and waves in the bay are 1 to 2 feet (up to 3 at the mouth). Winds will increase slightly as we approach slightly, with winds occasionally gusting to 20 knots at times (especially across the lower Chesapeake Bay). Otherwise, winds continue in the 10 to 15 knots range out of the S to SW today into tonight.

High pressure will gradually shift further to the south today before becoming centered off the Southeast US coast later today through Tuesday. Winds will average 5 to 15 knots through the period and will primarily be out of the S or SW. Seas will range from 2 to 4 feet and waves 1 to 2 feet. A cold front moves across the waters late Tuesday night into Wednesday, with winds shifting to the W and then NNW (but still remaining sub-SCA). Onshore flow is then expected later Wednesday through Thursday. Seas will increase slightly due to the onshore, likely 3 to 4 feet, but we will have to watch the potential for seas up to 5 feet (especially out 20 nm)
during this timeframe.

CLIMATE
Record highs for April 29th and April 30th:

4/29 4/30 RIC 94/1974 93/1974 ORF 92/1974 93/1988 SBY 89/1974 86/2017 ECG 90/1974 90/1974

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

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Gaskins Point
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:02 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 02:02 AM EDT     1.96 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:11 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:04 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 09:11 AM EDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:30 PM EDT     1.55 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:51 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:59 PM EDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Gaskins Point, Occohannock Creek, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia, Tide feet

Nassawadox Creek
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:02 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 01:26 AM EDT     2.07 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:11 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:56 AM EDT     0.27 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 09:05 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 01:54 PM EDT     1.64 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:44 PM EDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:51 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Nassawadox Creek, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia, Tide feet

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