Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Gwynn, VA
September 20, 2024 1:16 PM EDT (17:16 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:50 AM Sunset 7:06 PM Moonrise 7:33 PM Moonset 8:50 AM |
ANZ631 Chesapeake Bay From Windmill Point To New Point Comfort Va- 1232 Pm Edt Fri Sep 20 2024
This afternoon - NE winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 kt late. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tonight - E winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming ne 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat - N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat night - SE winds 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers after midnight.
Sun - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.
Sun night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Mon - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Mon night - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Tue - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tue night - E winds 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
ANZ600 1232 Pm Edt Fri Sep 20 2024
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
low pressure will linger well off the northern mid atlantic coast today, and will slowly drift southeastward this weekend as high pressure becomes centered over atlantic canada.
low pressure will linger well off the northern mid atlantic coast today, and will slowly drift southeastward this weekend as high pressure becomes centered over atlantic canada.
FXUS61 KAKQ 201055 AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 655 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure will remain north of the region while low pressure remains well offshore. A backdoor cold front potentially drops back south across the region Saturday. High pressure builds north of the area this weekend into early next week leading to generally dry conditions. A cold front potentially approaches by the middle to later portions of next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 315 AM EDT Friday...
Key Messages:
- Patchy fog possible this morning.
-Pleasant today with mostly sunny skies and highs in the upper 70s-low 80s.
An area of sfc low pressure, along with an UL low, remain situated off the Northeast coast this morning with high pressure (centered to the N) in place over the local area. Skies have cleared out over much of the area, but some mid level stratus is hanging on over the SW corner of the FA. Calm to light winds combined with the moisture from the rain over the last couple of days has allowed for fog formation where the skies have cleared. While this has mostly been patchy so far, a few of the latest obs do indicate denser spots in the NW and near the VA/NC border. Fog should clear up within an hour or two of sunrise.
Lows this morning will be in the low 60s. Expecting a pleasant day today with highs in the in the low 80s for much of the area.
Continued onshore flow will keep temps in the mid-upper 70s closer to the coast. Skies will be mostly sunny. Lows tonight will be on either side of 60. With mostly clear skies and calm to light winds, could see another round of morning fog Sat.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
As of 340 AM EDT Friday...
Key Messages:
- Showers or isolated storms possible Saturday evening into Saturday night.
- Cooler and mainly dry Sunday.
Pleasant weather continues into Sat with high pressure still in place over the NE CONUS and low pressure offshore slowly drifting S.
Aloft, NW flow will remain in place over the local area with a broad ridge to the W and low pressure offshore. Highs will be around 80.
CLoud cover will gradually increase from NW to SE as a shortwave approaches, traveling down the ridge. To add to that, a backdoor front will drop S into the area Sat night. Day-time hours look to remain mostly dry Sat, though could see a showers enter to the NW counties later in the afternoon. The scattered showers (and a few rumbles of thunder) then cross through the area Sat evening/night with highest PoPs (45-55%) staying N of I-64. Mostly cloudy skies will hang on across the NE half of the area for much of Sun. Not expecting much in the way of precip, but cannot rule out a stray shower near the coast with the UL trough in the vicinity. Temps will range from the low 70s in the NE on the Eastern Shore to around 80 in the SW. Lows Sun night will be in the upper 50s to low 60s.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 340 AM EDT Friday...
Key Messages:
- Dry, overall pleasant weather Monday.
- Gradually warming temps expected by the midweek, with low-end precipitation chances potentially returning.
Sfc high pressure centered well to the N of the area will continue to wedge itself down the east coast Mon as low pressure well offshore drifts further S. Thicknesses will increase as a ridge aloft slides east toward the coast through mid-week. Monday will be pleasant with highs in the mid 70s and partly sunny skies. Gusty onshore winds will keep areas immediately along the coast a couple of degrees cooler. Lows Mon night will be around 60. Precip chances potentially inch back up by Tuesday and especially Wednesday as a quick-moving shortwave ejects out of the Midwest, likely interacting with the next deep-layer trough coming out of the nrn US and Canada.
00z deterministic guidance shows several waves of precip associated with various smaller-scale disturbances. Timing these disturbances is difficult at this lead time and given associated spread across the ensemble guidance, will remain near or slightly above NBM PoPs during this period. This yields chc PoPs Tuesday aftn across the W, with 30-40% PoPs for most of the area Wednesday into Thurs with the parent cold front. Sky cover averages partly-mostly cloudy. Temps Tues-Thurs will be similar each day with mid 70s in the NW to upper 70s-around 80 in the SE. Forecast overnight lows are around 60 Monday night, and lower 60s Tuesday/Wednesday night.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 655 AM EDT Friday...
VFR prevails during the 12z TAF period. There is some patchy fog this morning, but latest obs are already showing improvement.
Terminals may see brief instances of reduced vsby over the next hour or so. Otherwise, expecting mostly clear skies today. NE winds become gusty at the coast during the day today (gusts 15-20kt). Winds will be calm to light tonight.
Outlook: Primarily VFR conditions expected through Sat afternoon. Scattered showers Sat evening may bring brief flight restrictions.
MARINE
As of 430 AM EDT Friday...
Key Messages:
- Small Craft Advisories have been issued for all coastal waters from later today extended through Sunday.
- Additional Small Craft Advisories may be needed in the Bay/lower James later this weekend.
- Winds increase Sunday with persistent long period swells keeping seas elevated into the middle of next week.
Sfc low pressure (~1003mb) lingers well off the NJ coast, with high pressure centered across New Foundland/Labrador. The stronger pressure gradient remains offshore today, with NW winds shifting to the NE later today, but remaining in the 10-15kt range (or less). Seas build to 4-5 ft N later this morning, eventually spreading S by late aftn/evening. Have added SCAs for the coastal waters S of Parramore down to NE NC so all coastal waters are now under headlines.
The latest model trends are a bit slower and weaker with respect to the sfc high building S into the local waters this weekend.
There is still a decent surge of NE winds expected on Sunday, but winds may be too marginal for headlines outside of the lower Bay/mouth of the Bay. Winds over coastal waters look to be 15-20 kt with gusts to 25kt. Building swell combined with elevated winds should allow seas to build to 5-7 ft in the N and 4-6 ft S Sunday-Monday. A slow improvement is expected Tue- Wed, though SCAs for seas are still probable through midweek given the long period easterly swell.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 645 AM EDT Friday...
Tidal departures are fairly uniform across the entire area, generally from +1.0 to +1.5 ft above astro tide levels. With rather high astro tides given the full moon cycle as well as the typical higher autumn tides, these departures have been enough to lead to widespread minor flooding over the past few days.
Over the next 24-48 hrs, the onshore flow will persist with sfc low pressure lingering well offshore and high pressure over eastern Canada nosing a bit to the south into the weekend.
Indications are for tidal departures to increase into the +1.5 to up to +2.0 ft range by later Saturday through Sunday (potentially continuing through the middle of next week). It is still a bit uncertain, but there is enough confidence at seeing moderate flooding into the mid/upper Bay as well as Va Beach and Currituck NC by later Saturday to issue a Coastal Flood Watch w/ this package. Subsequent shifts may need to extend this out through Sunday since that will likely be at least comparable if not slightly higher than what occurs Saturday aftn/evening. It will also be close to moderate flooding at a few sites on the VA eastern shore. Have held off on any Watches in these areas for now, but have extended Coastal Flood Advisories through at least Saturday aftn for all remaining zones.
In addition, a High rip current risk is in effect today and will be in effect Saturday as well.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM EDT Saturday for MDZ021>023.
Coastal Flood Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for MDZ021>023.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EDT Saturday for MDZ024-025.
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for NCZ102.
Coastal Flood Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon for NCZ102.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for VAZ076-078- 085-098-521-522.
Coastal Flood Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon for VAZ098.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for VAZ075-077.
Coastal Flood Watch from Saturday afternoon through late Saturday night for VAZ075-077.
Coastal Flood Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for VAZ076-078-085-521-522.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for VAZ083-084- 086-095>097-099-100-518-520-523>525.
Coastal Flood Advisory from noon today to 6 PM EDT Saturday for VAZ089-090-093.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ650-652.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ654-656-658.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 655 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure will remain north of the region while low pressure remains well offshore. A backdoor cold front potentially drops back south across the region Saturday. High pressure builds north of the area this weekend into early next week leading to generally dry conditions. A cold front potentially approaches by the middle to later portions of next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 315 AM EDT Friday...
Key Messages:
- Patchy fog possible this morning.
-Pleasant today with mostly sunny skies and highs in the upper 70s-low 80s.
An area of sfc low pressure, along with an UL low, remain situated off the Northeast coast this morning with high pressure (centered to the N) in place over the local area. Skies have cleared out over much of the area, but some mid level stratus is hanging on over the SW corner of the FA. Calm to light winds combined with the moisture from the rain over the last couple of days has allowed for fog formation where the skies have cleared. While this has mostly been patchy so far, a few of the latest obs do indicate denser spots in the NW and near the VA/NC border. Fog should clear up within an hour or two of sunrise.
Lows this morning will be in the low 60s. Expecting a pleasant day today with highs in the in the low 80s for much of the area.
Continued onshore flow will keep temps in the mid-upper 70s closer to the coast. Skies will be mostly sunny. Lows tonight will be on either side of 60. With mostly clear skies and calm to light winds, could see another round of morning fog Sat.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
As of 340 AM EDT Friday...
Key Messages:
- Showers or isolated storms possible Saturday evening into Saturday night.
- Cooler and mainly dry Sunday.
Pleasant weather continues into Sat with high pressure still in place over the NE CONUS and low pressure offshore slowly drifting S.
Aloft, NW flow will remain in place over the local area with a broad ridge to the W and low pressure offshore. Highs will be around 80.
CLoud cover will gradually increase from NW to SE as a shortwave approaches, traveling down the ridge. To add to that, a backdoor front will drop S into the area Sat night. Day-time hours look to remain mostly dry Sat, though could see a showers enter to the NW counties later in the afternoon. The scattered showers (and a few rumbles of thunder) then cross through the area Sat evening/night with highest PoPs (45-55%) staying N of I-64. Mostly cloudy skies will hang on across the NE half of the area for much of Sun. Not expecting much in the way of precip, but cannot rule out a stray shower near the coast with the UL trough in the vicinity. Temps will range from the low 70s in the NE on the Eastern Shore to around 80 in the SW. Lows Sun night will be in the upper 50s to low 60s.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 340 AM EDT Friday...
Key Messages:
- Dry, overall pleasant weather Monday.
- Gradually warming temps expected by the midweek, with low-end precipitation chances potentially returning.
Sfc high pressure centered well to the N of the area will continue to wedge itself down the east coast Mon as low pressure well offshore drifts further S. Thicknesses will increase as a ridge aloft slides east toward the coast through mid-week. Monday will be pleasant with highs in the mid 70s and partly sunny skies. Gusty onshore winds will keep areas immediately along the coast a couple of degrees cooler. Lows Mon night will be around 60. Precip chances potentially inch back up by Tuesday and especially Wednesday as a quick-moving shortwave ejects out of the Midwest, likely interacting with the next deep-layer trough coming out of the nrn US and Canada.
00z deterministic guidance shows several waves of precip associated with various smaller-scale disturbances. Timing these disturbances is difficult at this lead time and given associated spread across the ensemble guidance, will remain near or slightly above NBM PoPs during this period. This yields chc PoPs Tuesday aftn across the W, with 30-40% PoPs for most of the area Wednesday into Thurs with the parent cold front. Sky cover averages partly-mostly cloudy. Temps Tues-Thurs will be similar each day with mid 70s in the NW to upper 70s-around 80 in the SE. Forecast overnight lows are around 60 Monday night, and lower 60s Tuesday/Wednesday night.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 655 AM EDT Friday...
VFR prevails during the 12z TAF period. There is some patchy fog this morning, but latest obs are already showing improvement.
Terminals may see brief instances of reduced vsby over the next hour or so. Otherwise, expecting mostly clear skies today. NE winds become gusty at the coast during the day today (gusts 15-20kt). Winds will be calm to light tonight.
Outlook: Primarily VFR conditions expected through Sat afternoon. Scattered showers Sat evening may bring brief flight restrictions.
MARINE
As of 430 AM EDT Friday...
Key Messages:
- Small Craft Advisories have been issued for all coastal waters from later today extended through Sunday.
- Additional Small Craft Advisories may be needed in the Bay/lower James later this weekend.
- Winds increase Sunday with persistent long period swells keeping seas elevated into the middle of next week.
Sfc low pressure (~1003mb) lingers well off the NJ coast, with high pressure centered across New Foundland/Labrador. The stronger pressure gradient remains offshore today, with NW winds shifting to the NE later today, but remaining in the 10-15kt range (or less). Seas build to 4-5 ft N later this morning, eventually spreading S by late aftn/evening. Have added SCAs for the coastal waters S of Parramore down to NE NC so all coastal waters are now under headlines.
The latest model trends are a bit slower and weaker with respect to the sfc high building S into the local waters this weekend.
There is still a decent surge of NE winds expected on Sunday, but winds may be too marginal for headlines outside of the lower Bay/mouth of the Bay. Winds over coastal waters look to be 15-20 kt with gusts to 25kt. Building swell combined with elevated winds should allow seas to build to 5-7 ft in the N and 4-6 ft S Sunday-Monday. A slow improvement is expected Tue- Wed, though SCAs for seas are still probable through midweek given the long period easterly swell.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 645 AM EDT Friday...
Tidal departures are fairly uniform across the entire area, generally from +1.0 to +1.5 ft above astro tide levels. With rather high astro tides given the full moon cycle as well as the typical higher autumn tides, these departures have been enough to lead to widespread minor flooding over the past few days.
Over the next 24-48 hrs, the onshore flow will persist with sfc low pressure lingering well offshore and high pressure over eastern Canada nosing a bit to the south into the weekend.
Indications are for tidal departures to increase into the +1.5 to up to +2.0 ft range by later Saturday through Sunday (potentially continuing through the middle of next week). It is still a bit uncertain, but there is enough confidence at seeing moderate flooding into the mid/upper Bay as well as Va Beach and Currituck NC by later Saturday to issue a Coastal Flood Watch w/ this package. Subsequent shifts may need to extend this out through Sunday since that will likely be at least comparable if not slightly higher than what occurs Saturday aftn/evening. It will also be close to moderate flooding at a few sites on the VA eastern shore. Have held off on any Watches in these areas for now, but have extended Coastal Flood Advisories through at least Saturday aftn for all remaining zones.
In addition, a High rip current risk is in effect today and will be in effect Saturday as well.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM EDT Saturday for MDZ021>023.
Coastal Flood Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for MDZ021>023.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EDT Saturday for MDZ024-025.
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for NCZ102.
Coastal Flood Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon for NCZ102.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for VAZ076-078- 085-098-521-522.
Coastal Flood Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon for VAZ098.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for VAZ075-077.
Coastal Flood Watch from Saturday afternoon through late Saturday night for VAZ075-077.
Coastal Flood Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for VAZ076-078-085-521-522.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for VAZ083-084- 086-095>097-099-100-518-520-523>525.
Coastal Flood Advisory from noon today to 6 PM EDT Saturday for VAZ089-090-093.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ650-652.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ654-656-658.
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Wind History graph: MFV
(wind in knots)Tide / Current for Windmill Point Light, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Windmill Point Light
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:50 AM EDT 1.34 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:51 AM EDT Sunrise
Fri -- 07:14 AM EDT -0.07 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 09:50 AM EDT Moonset
Fri -- 01:17 PM EDT 1.53 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:04 PM EDT Sunset
Fri -- 08:00 PM EDT -0.02 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:33 PM EDT Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:50 AM EDT 1.34 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:51 AM EDT Sunrise
Fri -- 07:14 AM EDT -0.07 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 09:50 AM EDT Moonset
Fri -- 01:17 PM EDT 1.53 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:04 PM EDT Sunset
Fri -- 08:00 PM EDT -0.02 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:33 PM EDT Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Windmill Point Light, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.3 |
| 1 am |
| 1.3 |
| 2 am |
| 1.2 |
| 3 am |
| 1 |
| 4 am |
| 0.7 |
| 5 am |
| 0.3 |
| 6 am |
| 0.1 |
| 7 am |
| -0.1 |
| 8 am |
| -0 |
| 9 am |
| 0.2 |
| 10 am |
| 0.6 |
| 11 am |
| 1 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 4 pm |
| 1 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 8 pm |
| -0 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.7 |
Windmill Point
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:44 AM EDT 1.75 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:51 AM EDT Sunrise
Fri -- 07:10 AM EDT 0.23 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 09:50 AM EDT Moonset
Fri -- 01:11 PM EDT 1.99 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:04 PM EDT Sunset
Fri -- 07:56 PM EDT 0.25 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:33 PM EDT Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:44 AM EDT 1.75 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:51 AM EDT Sunrise
Fri -- 07:10 AM EDT 0.23 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 09:50 AM EDT Moonset
Fri -- 01:11 PM EDT 1.99 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:04 PM EDT Sunset
Fri -- 07:56 PM EDT 0.25 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:33 PM EDT Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Windmill Point, Rappahannock River, Virginia, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.7 |
| 1 am |
| 1.7 |
| 2 am |
| 1.6 |
| 3 am |
| 1.4 |
| 4 am |
| 1 |
| 5 am |
| 0.6 |
| 6 am |
| 0.4 |
| 7 am |
| 0.2 |
| 8 am |
| 0.3 |
| 9 am |
| 0.6 |
| 10 am |
| 1 |
| 11 am |
| 1.5 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.9 |
| 1 pm |
| 2 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.9 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.7 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 5 pm |
| 1 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.1 |
Wakefield, VA,
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