Friday, April10, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Gwynn, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:35AMSunset 7:37PM Friday April 10, 2020 2:40 PM EDT (18:40 UTC) Moonrise 9:55PMMoonset 7:30AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ631 Chesapeake Bay From Windmill Point To New Point Comfort Va- 1247 Pm Edt Fri Apr 10 2020
.gale warning in effect until 6 pm edt this evening...
This afternoon..W winds 25 to 30 kt, becoming nw 20 to 25 kt late. Gusts up to 35 kt. Waves 4 to 5 ft.
Tonight..NW winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt in the late evening and overnight. Waves 3 to 4 ft.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt late. Waves 2 to 3 ft, subsiding to 1 foot early in the afternoon.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sun..S winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Sun night..S winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt late. Waves 4 to 5 ft. Showers with a chance of tstms.
Mon..S winds 20 to 25 kt. Waves 4 to 5 ft, subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon. A chance of tstms. Showers.
Mon night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Tue..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Tue night..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ600 1247 Pm Edt Fri Apr 10 2020
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. Gusty west or northwest winds continue today, as low pressure intensifies off the northern new england coast while high pressure slowly builds in from the west. The high moves off the carolina coast Saturday afternoon. The next low pressure approaches from the west on Sunday and moves through the local area Sunday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Gwynn, VA
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location: 37.56, -76.13     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 101711 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 111 PM EDT Fri Apr 10 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure builds southwest of the region today then pushes off the Carolina coast late Saturday. Low pressure approaches from the west on Sunday, then forces a strong cold front through the local area late Sunday night into Monday morning. A period of heavy rain, gusty winds and strong thunderstorms will be possible during this time.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 635 AM EDT Friday .

An upper trough will move quickly over the local area this morning. Other than some mid-high level clouds expected with the passage of this feature, today is shaping up to be sunny but with another round of gusty winds. The upper trough will bring with it a reinforcing shot of dry air and allow WNW winds to increase quickly after sunrise. Expecting wind gusts of 30-40 mph to be widespread today and lasting throughout much of the day (diminishing toward sunset). Gusts as high as 45 mph should occur over the Eastern Shore and for that reason will maintain a wind advisory. The other concern with gusty winds and dry air in place today is increased wildfire potential. See Fire Wx section below for more information. High temps today will be much lower than yesterday, ranging from the mid-upr 50s to around 60.

Winds diminish tonight as sfc high pressure settles over the southern Appalachians. Overnight lows will be determined by how much of the area decouples. Enough wind might remain over locations near the Ches Bay, Eastern Shore and coastal NE NC to keep things mixed some overnight. Current forecast is for lows of 32-34F in much of the Piedmont, mostly low to mid 30s central and interior E/SE VA, and upper 30s/lower 40s near the coast (except some mid 30s interior Eastern Shore) under a clear sky. Frost/Freeze products are tempting for early Sat morning. However, with a dry air mass in place and the T/Td spread being 5-8 deg, this should limit the possibility of widespread frost formation. Will include a mention of patchy frost in the HWO for now and allow dayshift to re-assess.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. As of 400 AM EDT Friday .

Saturday is shaping up to be quite nice after chilly temps in the morning. Under a mostly sunny sky, high temperatures will reach the mid-upr 50s on the Eastern Shore to the low 60s west of the Ches Bay. Increasing clouds late Saturday night ahead of the next system as mid-high level moisture arrives. Lows generally in the mid 40s.

The next storm system approaches late Sunday and into early Monday morning and is shaping up to be quite potent. SPC has already placed S-SE VA and northeast NC in an extended outlook for potential severe weather. Additionally, WPC has added a marginal risk of excessive rainfall across our Piedmont counties for late Sunday night through 12z Mon. A lot will depend upon the progression of the upper pattern and dynamics, but there is the potential for some strong to severe storms late Sunday night into Monday morning. How far north the severe weather potential reaches is still in question at this time. Will bring likely PoPs into our far SW counties after 18z Sunday, increasing to likely/categorical for all areas Sunday night. A strong southerly flow ahead of next system will boost temps into the 60s and low 70s on Sunday. Mild Sunday night with lows in the 50s to low 60s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 400 AM EDT Friday .

A strong cold front crosses the region by midday or early afternoon on Monday with high rain chances prior to 18z, and then coming to an end across the east after 18z as the front moves offshore. A period of strong/gusty winds is possible with the frontal passage Monday morning into the early afternoon (outside of convection) with gusts in 30-45 mph range (highest along the coast). Warm Monday with highs in the 70s to low 80s. Drier air and cooler temps will follow the front with overnight lows Monday night falling into the mid 40s across the west and upper 40s and low 50s for areas near and east of I-95. High temps Tuesday rise into the low to mid 60s with a few locations in the upper 60s over far SE VA and NE NC under a mostly sunny sky.

Southwesterly flow aloft will interact with developing low pressure over the northern Gulf Coast to bring a chance for rain back to the region late Tuesday into Wednesday. Timing differences between the global spectral models preclude anything greater than chance PoPs at this time. However, northerly surface flow and increased cloud cover will keep temperatures below climatological norms on Wednesday, generally in the upper 50s and low 60s. Cooler still Wednesday night with lows falling into the upper 30s across the Piedmont with low 40s elsewhere. Will maintain PoPs aob 30% into Thursday pending better model consensus in subsequent forecasts.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 100 PM EDT Friday .

VFR conditions through the period. Greatest aviation concern today continues to be gusty W/NW winds. They will continue through early this evening with gusts of 25-35 kts. Winds will gradually subside late tonight and early Saturday to 10 kts or less, although SBY will likely be 10-15 kts through most of the night. SCT to BKN high CU will dissipate this evening and expecting mostly clear skies overnight.

Outlook . VFR expected through much of Sunday before a storm system brings the chance for showers and thunderstorms along with gusty winds late Sunday and through Monday. Periods of degraded flight conditions are likely.

MARINE. As of 400 AM EDT Friday .

Strong WNW winds 20-30kt over the waters this morning, as rapidly deepening low pressure lingers over northern New England and the Canadian Maritimes through this aftn, as high pressure builds in from the WNW. Expect wind speeds to gradually step down this afternoon and this evening. In the interim, have replaced SCA with Gale Warnings over the northern 2 Bay zones (north of New Point Comfort), with frequent gusts to ~35 kt expected through midday. Waves 2-4 ft and seas 3-6 ft. Gales also remain in effect for northern and central coastal zones (north of Cape Charles Light). Otherwise, SCAs remain in effect for remainder of the waters into tonight. The Gale Warning coastal waters continues through late this evening, with gradient winds hanging on the longest over northern waters into the DelMarVA.

High pressure builds back into and over the region for later Fri night into Sat aftn, then slides off the coast Sat evening into early Sun morning. This will allow the winds to relax and seas to calm over the weekend before another system impacts the region late Sun into Mon. Models are slowly coming into better agreement with this system. Strong low pressure will lift across the northeast US, with its attendant sfc front crossing the area Monday aftn and night. SCA winds are expected, with S-SW winds to ramp up to 25 to 30 kt later Sun and Sun night. The potential for a period of Gale force gusts is only increasing with each run for the lower Bay/Rivers and coastal waters late Sunday night and Monday morning pre-frontal. Winds quickly diminish later Mon night into Tuesday, as high pressure quickly building in from the west.

FIRE WEATHER. As of 900 AM EDT Friday .

After coordination with the NCFS, a Red Flag Warning was issued for Noon to 6pm today across northeast North Carolina. After coordination with VA/MD forestry officials, an increased fire danger statement will remain in effect today Virginia and the MD eastern shore. Min RHs drop to between 20-30 percent (highest near the water) along with gusty WNW winds 20-30 mph with gusts 35-45 mph.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. As of 400 AM EDT Friday .

Strong W-NW winds have resulted in near minor/nuisance-type coastal flood impacts, mainly on the Bay side of the lower Maryland eastern shore. Have continued a Coastal Flood Statement to highlight up to a half foot to one foot of inundation in vulnerable areas especially along the Bay early this morning. Expect fewer issues with next tide cycle, with strong ebb tide in progress w/gusty offshore flow.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . Wind Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for MDZ021>025. NC . Red Flag Warning until 6 PM EDT this evening for NCZ012>017- 030>032. VA . Wind Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for VAZ099-100. MARINE . Gale Warning until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ635>638- 656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ632>634. Gale Warning until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ630-631.

SYNOPSIS . JDM NEAR TERM . JDM SHORT TERM . JDM LONG TERM . RHR AVIATION . CMF MARINE . MAM FIRE WEATHER . AKQ TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . AKQ


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 6 mi52 min WNW 28 G 30 1006.6 hPa
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 7 mi76 min WNW 21 G 23 56°F1008.2 hPa
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 24 mi52 min WNW 26 G 32 51°F 1006.3 hPa
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 24 mi52 min W 8.9 G 21 51°F 57°F1005.4 hPa
44072 26 mi40 min N 23 G 31 51°F 55°F3 ft
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 28 mi52 min NW 24 G 29 56°F
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 30 mi52 min WNW 23 G 34 52°F 58°F1005.8 hPa
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 32 mi70 min W 8.9 53°F 1007 hPa20°F
44042 - Potomac, MD 34 mi34 min WNW 31 G 33 49°F 1006 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 35 mi52 min NW 22 G 29 50°F 58°F1006.3 hPa
CHBV2 37 mi58 min WNW 27 G 31 51°F 1004.6 hPa
44064 39 mi40 min WNW 27 G 33 55°F4 ft1005.9 hPa (+0.0)
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 41 mi52 min WNW 28 G 35 52°F 1006 hPa
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 44 mi58 min NW 23 G 28 52°F 1006.7 hPa
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 44 mi52 min WNW 25 G 32 52°F 1006.4 hPa
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 44 mi58 min 59°F1006.2 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 45 mi52 min NW 32 G 41
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 46 mi52 min NW 29 G 39 49°F 53°F1005 hPa
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 48 mi52 min WNW 17 G 24 53°F 1006.2 hPa

Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Melfa / Accomack Airport, VA20 mi45 minWNW 22 G 3010.00 miOvercast and Breezy53°F24°F33%1005.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMFV

Wind History from MFV (wind in knots)
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W8NW3CalmCalmSW4CalmS3S6S6S7S7S4SE5S4W8W8W6
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2 days agoS8S9S9NW5
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--SE5--S6S9S6S7SW6SW3SW9
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Tide / Current Tables for Windmill Point Light, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Windmill Point Light
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:10 AM EDT     1.40 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:36 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:54 AM EDT     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:29 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 01:37 PM EDT     1.17 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:36 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 07:58 PM EDT     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 10:55 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.31.41.31.10.80.40.1-0.1-0.2-0.10.20.60.91.11.210.80.40.1-0.1-0.2-00.20.6

Tide / Current Tables for Windmill Point, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Windmill Point
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:08 AM EDT     1.56 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:36 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:53 AM EDT     -0.23 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:29 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 01:28 PM EDT     1.22 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:36 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 07:55 PM EDT     -0.21 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 10:56 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.41.61.51.30.90.50.1-0.2-0.2-0.10.30.711.21.210.80.40.1-0.1-0.2-0.10.20.7

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.