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ANZ631 Chesapeake Bay From Windmill Point To New Point Comfort Va- 940 Am Est Fri Dec 8 2023
Rest of today..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw late. Waves 1 foot.
Sat..S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sat night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sun..S winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 4 ft. Showers likely.
Sun night..S winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt, becoming W 25 to 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt after midnight. Waves 4 to 5 ft. Showers.
Mon..NW winds 25 to 30 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 4 to 5 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Waves 1 foot.

ANZ600 940 Am Est Fri Dec 8 2023
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers..
high pressure remains off the southeast coast into this weekend. A strong cold front will approach from the west on Saturday, and is expected to impact the waters Sunday through Monday.

FXUS61 KAKQ 081127 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 627 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

SYNOPSIS
High pressure is centered along the Southeast U.S. coast today, and will move east Friday and Saturday. A strong frontal system likely impacts the region on Sunday. High pressure builds back into the region early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 400 AM EST Friday...

High pressure is centered near the GA and SC this morning while an upper-level ridge build east from the Mississippi River Valley to the East Coast. Temperatures are slightly warmer this morning than yesterday morning due to a weak SW flow at the sfc. Temperatures range from the low 30s to low 40s.

Light southerly return flow continues through the day today, allowing for temperatures to rise into the upper 50s to around 60F, except for lower- mid 50s across the eastern shore.
Expecting mostly sunny to party sunny skies today as high clouds move in from the west. Warmer again tonight with low temperatures in the mid 30s to low 40s. There may be a few location across the central VA Piedmont that drops to 32F.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
As of 400 AM EST Friday...

Remaining dry and mild on Saturday as sfc high pressure expands to the N and becomes centered off the Mid-Atlantic coast. The upper-level ridge axis also moves off the coast in response to a potent upper level trough extending from the northern Plains SW into the southern Rockies. Meanwhile, low pressure will begin to take shape over the central and southern plains Friday night and will lift E-NE along a strong cold front Friday night into Saturday from the Gulf Coast to the Ohio River Valley. Low temperatures Friday night will range from the low/mid 30s NW to the low 40s across the S/SE. Saturday is shaping up to be a nice day with mostly sunny skies and high temperatures ranging from the upper 50s to lower 60s N to the upper 60s S. Clouds will be on the increase out ahead of the approaching system Sat night and it will be much warmer with lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

A strong cold front will approach from the west on Sunday and move across the area Sunday evening and/or Sunday night. There will be a strong southerly flow ahead of the front on Sunday.
Winds will be 15-25 mph with gusts 30-40 mph Sunday afternoon and evening. This will bring warm and moist air north into the area. Dew points will be climbing into the mid 60s and PW values will surge to 1.50"+ on Sunday. This will allow for the potential for heavy rain. QPF for the area is for a widespread 1.50-3.00". Rain chances increase early Sunday morning with mainly light passing showers. Rain will likely be on and off through Sunday afternoon with the bulk of the rain coming through late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Pops are ~100% area-wide. WPC has the entire region highlighted in a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall. Therefore, there will be the potential for, at least, some localized flooding, especially in flood-prone and urban areas. In additions, there is also a potential for localized strong to severe storms. SPC has now placed most of the local area, for the exception of the MD Eastern Shore, in a Marginal Risk for severe storms. If there is enough sfc heating, with temperatures warming to around 70F, and instability on Sunday, some storms may produce a brief tornado and/or sporadic damaging wind gusts.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 400 AM EST Friday...

Rain should come to an end quickly in the wake of the front late Sunday night into Monday morning, as high pressure builds back into the region. Becoming gusty behind the front on Monday with strong pressure rises and much cooler/drier air. Highs only in the 50s. Winds ease Monday night and Tuesday, with dry conditions and cooler temperatures to prevail through the middle of the week. Looks like conditions remain dry through at least Thursday.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 630 AM EST Friday...

VFR through the TAF period. Generally SW winds at 5-10kt or less with just high clouds through this evening.

Outlook: VFR/dry conditions prevail through Saturday. A strong cold front approaches from the west from Saturday night into Sunday, bringing our next chances for sub- VFR conditions and gusty winds, along with additional periods of locally heavy rainfall, especially Sunday aftn into Sunday night. Becoming dry and breezy Monday with W-NW winds.

MARINE
As of 250 AM EST Friday...

Surface analysis shows deep (988mb) low pressure over the northern Plains with high pressure moving off the East Coast.
Aloft, a strong shortwave trough is noted in association with the Plains low. Winds early this morning are generally 5-10 kt from the west with waves 1- 2 ft and seas around 3 ft.

Expecting benign boating conditions today as winds become southerly 5-10 kt then southeasterly ~10 kt by this evening. Winds remain out of the south on Saturday, becoming SSW 10-15 kt into the overnight hours as low pressure and a strong cold front move eastward across the Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley. Southerly flow steadily increases on Sunday as the pressure gradient steepens ahead of the cold front. 00z guidance is in relatively good agreement showing initial low pressure occluding NW of the local area as secondary cyclogenesis develops across the higher terrain to our west. As this second low deepens, southerly flow increases to 25-35 kt with gusts 35 to 40 kt Sunday evening. Guidance continues to show an impressive pressure fall/rise couplet as the low moves through the region with winds turning NW by early Monday morning. Gusts along and behind the cold front are potentially the strongest of the event as the low continues to deepen, bringing cold/dry air and deeper mixing over the waters. Some timing and magnitude differences continue on the models but a period of gale conditions is likely starting early Sunday evening and lasting into Monday. Gale Watches are warranted over the next 1 or 2 forecast cycles as confidence in the finer details increases. Seas build 4-6 ft Sunday afternoon and increase to 6-8 ft S and 7-10 ft N by early Monday morning. Waves in the Ches Bay build to 2-4 ft Sunday afternoon and further to 3-5 ft (locally up to 6 ft near the mouth of the bay) early Monday. Thereafter, high pressure builds into the region with a period of SCA conditions likely following the gales as winds/waves/seas begin to decrease on Monday.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

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Windmill Point Light
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:53 AM EST     0.13 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:34 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:01 AM EST     1.02 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:07 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 01:43 PM EST     0.19 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:58 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:46 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:12 PM EST     0.89 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Windmill Point Light, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia, Tide feet

Windmill Point
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:56 AM EST     0.14 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:34 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:07 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:15 AM EST     1.20 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:48 PM EST     0.17 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:58 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:46 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:25 PM EST     0.97 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Windmill Point, Rappahannock River, Virginia, Tide feet

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