Thursday, December5, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Gwynn, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:02AMSunset 4:49PM Thursday December 5, 2019 5:12 PM EST (22:12 UTC) Moonrise 1:30PMMoonset 12:28AM Illumination 65% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ631 Chesapeake Bay From Windmill Point To New Point Comfort Va- 343 Pm Est Thu Dec 5 2019
Tonight..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S late. Waves 1 foot.
Fri..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt in the late morning and afternoon. Waves around 2 ft.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W late in the evening, then becoming N 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft, building to 4 ft late.
Sat..N winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 4 ft, subsiding to 2 ft late.
Sat night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sun..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sun night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers.
Mon..S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers.
ANZ600 343 Pm Est Thu Dec 5 2019
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. A weak trough of low pressure moves away from the local waters this morning. High pressure builds near the region this afternoon and tonight. A cold front crosses the region late Friday with high pressure returning over the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Gwynn, VA
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location: 37.56, -76.13     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 052054 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 354 PM EST Thu Dec 5 2019

SYNOPSIS. A weak front crosses the area late Friday into early Saturday with high pressure returning for the weekend. Strong low pressure tracks well to the northwest of the area early next week, dragging a strong cold front through the area by midweek.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/. As of 345 PM EST Thursday .

Late afternoon weather analysis shows low pressure at the surface and aloft centered near the Canadian Maritimes continuing to move away from the area . while ~1022 mb high pressure was centered from the FL Gulf coast to ern KY/TN. Skies have finally become partly-mostly clear over the Lower MD Ern Shore as the low continues to depart the area (and the cold pool aloft moves to our north/east). Temperatures are in the low-mid 50s in VA/NC, with upper 40s on the Lower MD Ern Shore. The high is progged to build eastward this evening through tonight before becoming centered over ern NC late tonight. Skies will remain mainly clear through at least the first part of tonight, but SCT high clouds are possible late . especially north/west). Overnight lows will mainly be in the upper 20s-low 30s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. As of 345 PM EST Thursday .

The surface high will move off the Carolina coast on Friday. An shortwave/area of sfc low pressure tracks to our N on Fri while another weaker low passes by well to our S. The low to our N will drag a cold front toward the region during the day on Fri before it crosses the area from N to S late Fri evening-Fri night. Mid/upper level moisture rapidly increases ahead of the front, while the layer below 850 mb remains quite dry through much of the day. Clouds increase during the day but no pcpn is expected through 21z. There is some indication that low-levels may saturate just enough for areas across srn VA/NE NC to see some very light pcpn from 21z Fri-06z Sat (along/ahead of the front). A minority of the latest 12z HREF members have a few hundredths of an inch of QPF from the SW Piedmont to NE NC. For now, will keep it dry in most areas with 15-20% PoPs across srn zones. Highs mainly in the low-mid 50s on Fri.

The cold front moves well to our S by 12z Sat as ~1030 mb high pressure builds into the Great Lakes. There will be modest cold air advection behind the front, but it will not be that cold for early December (850 mb temps of -1 to -3C). Lows Saturday morning will be in the low 30s N, with mainly mid-upper 30s S/SE. Strong high pressure builds from the Great Lakes to the Northeast on Saturday. While it will be mostly sunny, the cool N/NE flow will hold high temps to the mid and upper 40s. The high becomes centered from New England to central VA by Sun AM. This will allow winds to relax/skies to remain mostly clear (providing good conditions for radiational cooling). Lows Sun AM range from the mid 20s north/west to the low-mid 30s in coastal SE VA/NE NC. The high moves offshore of the New England coast on Sun, allowing winds to turn back to the S/SE. Aloft, troughing starts to establish itself over the Rockies/High Plains. The flow aloft will become WSW then SW over the region, allowing deep-layer moisture to slowly increase. Clouds increase on Sun, but it will remain dry through 00z Mon. The first of a series of upper level disturbances tracks across the area Sun night. This will result in increased shower chances starting Sun night (PoPs of 50-60% by late Sun night). Milder Sun with highs around 50F NW to the upper 50s in coastal SE VA/NE NC.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 345 PM EST Thursday .

The aforementioned trough aloft quickly amplifies across the Plains early next week as sfc low pressure deepens as it tracks from the Plains to the Great Lakes. A series of upper disturbances will continue to track toward/across the region through Tue as the associated cold front slowly approaches from the W/NW. Strong WAA will continue through Tue (850 mb temps rising to 8-12C by 12z Tue) under deep-layered SW flow. With the area likely remaining in the warm sector from Mon-Tue, expect a good chc of (occasional) showers to continue from Mon through Tue. Have high chc-likely PoPs through much of this time period, as it is too far out to be specific with the exact timing of each occurrence of showers. Mild Monday w/ highs in the upper 50s to around 60F in the piedmont west of RIC, with low-mid 60s E of I-95.

The frontal passage likely holds off until sometime during the latter half of the day on Tue. As a result, look for highs well into the 60s on Tuesday . with the potential for some low 70s in Hampton Roads/NE NC with any aftn sun. High-end chc PoPs continue through the day on Tue with some post-frontal RA possible Tue night-early Wed (especially SE). Lows Tue night range from the mid 30s north/west to the low 40s in SE VA/NE NC.

Strong high pressure builds into the Great Lakes by midweek, but it quickly migrates eastward (becoming centered over New England by Thursday evening). This will result in a short-lived period of below average temperatures on Wed/Thu, due to cold Canadian air sweeping across the region behind the departing front. Forecast highs are mainly in the 40s on Wed/Thu, although mid- upper 30s are possible across central/nrn zones. Model consensus is forecasting the high to move offshore of the New England Coast on Fri as low pressure develops near the Gulf Coast (which will likely impact the ern CONUS by next weekend).

AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. As of 1230 PM EST Thursday .

VFR conditions prevail through the 18z TAF period. It is mainly clear across VA, with just FEW-SCT CU (5-7k feet). Still some BKN CIGs around 5-6k feet in/near SBY at this hour. In addition, W-NW winds are gusting to 20-25 kt near the coast. Low pressure near the Canadian Maritimes will continue to track away from the region tonight as high pressure builds toward the Carolinas. This will allow winds to diminish to 5-10 kt by this evening at all sites before decreasing to aob 5 kt tonight. Skies will become clear across all areas by this evening (and remain so through much of tonight) before BKN mid-high clouds increase on Friday ahead of a low pressure system/associated cold front. CIGs likely remain no lower than 8-10k feet through 18z Fri.

The front crosses the region from N to S Fri evening-Fri night. The chc of pcpn is very low (aob 20%) with the frontal passage (highest PoPs at ECG). CIGs/VSBYs are expected to remain VFR Fri aftn-Fri night. SW winds increase to 10-12 kt on Fri (a few gusts of 15-20 kt possible). Winds turn to the W/NW behind the front. High pressure then builds in for the weekend. Mainly VFR CIGs/VSBYs are expected through the weekend.

MARINE. As of 340 PM EST Thursday .

Winds are decreasing as high pressure moves in from the SW this afternoon. Winds will be W 5-10 kt across the bay and rives this evening and WNW 10-15 kt across the ocean zones. SW winds will increase late Friday morning ahead of an approaching cold front. Winds will be SSW around 15 kt across the Chesapeake Bay and SSW 15- 20 kt across the ocean (with gust up to 28 kt off Delmarva Friday afternoon). Cold front will move across the coastal waters from N to S late Friday evening into Friday night. Winds will quickly increase behind the front to N-NNE 20-25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt across the bay and ocean Friday night. The center of the high pressure will move over the region by Saturday morning with winds diminishing to N 10-15 kt for the day on Saturday.

Starting tonight, waves in the Chesapeake Bay will be 1-2 ft and seas in the ocean will be 2-4 ft through Friday afternoon. Wave in the Chesapeake will increase to 2-3 ft behind the front Friday night into Saturday morning. In the ocean, seas will be 3-4 ft off of Delmarva and 4-6 ft off of VA Beach and the northern Outer Banks behind the cold front Friday night into Saturday morning.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ630>632-634>638. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ633- 654-656. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ650- 652.

SYNOPSIS . CMF/ERI NEAR TERM . ERI SHORT TERM . CMF/ERI LONG TERM . ERI AVIATION . CMF/ERI MARINE . CP


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 6 mi54 min WNW 8 G 11 1017.9 hPa
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 24 mi54 min WNW 13 G 15 51°F 1017.5 hPa
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 24 mi54 min NW 1.9 G 4.1 46°F 46°F1017 hPa
44072 26 mi42 min N 7.8 G 9.7 50°F
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 28 mi60 min WNW 9.9 G 12 48°F
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 30 mi60 min W 7 G 9.9 51°F 49°F1016.7 hPa
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 32 mi102 min W 2.9 51°F 1017 hPa26°F
44042 - Potomac, MD 34 mi36 min 48°F 48°F
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 35 mi60 min NNW 5.1 G 7 47°F 45°F1017 hPa
44087 37 mi42 min 49°F1 ft
CHBV2 37 mi60 min NW 9.9 G 12 51°F 1015.9 hPa
44064 39 mi42 min NW 9.7 G 12 50°F 1017.1 hPa
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 41 mi60 min W 9.9 G 13 51°F 1016.6 hPa
44041 - Jamestown, VA 42 mi36 min 51°F 1017.9 hPa
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 44 mi60 min 49°F1016.9 hPa
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 44 mi54 min W 8.9 G 12 50°F 1017.2 hPa
44089 44 mi42 min 50°F2 ft
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 44 mi60 min WNW 9.9 G 11 51°F 1017.3 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 45 mi54 min NNW 13 G 15
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 46 mi60 min NW 12 G 14 46°F 45°F1017.2 hPa
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 48 mi54 min W 5.1 G 8 52°F 1017 hPa

Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Melfa / Accomack Airport, VA20 mi57 minWNW 410.00 miFair46°F29°F54%1017.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMFV

Wind History from MFV (wind in knots)
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1 day agoNW9NW4--Calm----CalmCalmNE3NE5Calm----NE4--------Calm----W7----
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Tide / Current Tables for Windmill Point Light, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Windmill Point Light
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:28 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 05:22 AM EST     0.91 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:04 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:49 AM EST     0.24 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:29 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:46 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:33 PM EST     0.92 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.30.50.70.80.90.90.80.70.50.40.30.20.30.50.60.80.90.90.80.70.50.40.2

Tide / Current Tables for Windmill Point, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Windmill Point
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:29 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 05:41 AM EST     1.07 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:04 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 12:07 PM EST     0.28 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:30 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:46 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:49 PM EST     1.04 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.30.50.811.11.110.80.60.50.30.30.30.50.70.91110.80.60.40.3

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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