Sunrise 6:16 AM   Sunset 7:49 PM Moonrise 7:50 PM   Moonset 5:25 AM

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ANZ631 Chesapeake Bay From Windmill Point To New Point Comfort Va- 303 Pm Edt Wed Apr 24 2024
.small craft advisory in effect from late tonight through Thursday morning - .
Through 7 pm - SW winds 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Isolated showers. Tonight - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W late in the evening, then becoming N 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight, becoming ne 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt late. Waves 1 foot, then 2 to 3 ft after midnight. Thu - NE winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Thu night - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.Fri - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Fri night - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 foot. Sat - SE winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. Sat night - S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. Sun - S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. Sun night - SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.

ANZ600 303 Pm Edt Wed Apr 24 2024
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
a cold front crosses the local waters tonight. High pressure builds north of the local waters Thursday into Friday before moving offshore this weekend.

FXUS61 KAKQ 241900 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 300 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

SYNOPSIS
A weak cold front drops through the area this evening keeping a chance for scattered rain showers in the forecast. Strong high pressure then builds east from the Great Lakes region on Thursday before shifting offshore to end the week. After a couple of cooler days, expect a significant warming trend next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 230 PM EDT Wednesday...

Surface analysis shows that the weak cold front has very slowly dropped into the northwest portions of our area early this afternoon. It is expected to continue its gradual journey through the rest of the area, eventually clearing the CWA during the early morning hours. Current radar shows a band of light rain showers stretching from Virginia Beach almost all the way back to Charlotte, NC. These showers will continue to move southward as well through the afternoon. Hi-res guidance indicates isolated showers developing across central Virginia after 5/6pm this evening and moving off to the east/southeast.
Coverage should remain limited, so kept a slight chance of an isolated shower in the forecast mainly for Richmond and points east/southeast through the evening. Once the front pushes through, the rain chances will come to an end. Some breaks in the clouds will form, though still anticipating cloud cover to stick around as onshore flow sets in. Low temperatures tonight will be in the mid to upper 50s inland with low 50s near the coast and across far NE NC.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
As of 230 PM EDT Wednesday...

Surface high pressure builds in from the Great Lakes region on Thursday and extends across New England and the Mid-Atlantic. Partly cloudy skies are expected with cooler high temperatures thanks to onshore flow. Forecast has upper 50s to lower 60s across the east and northeast, with mid to upper 60s across the southwest. Lows Thursday night will be in the lower 40s, with northern areas dropping to around 40 degrees. Inland spots of the Maryland Eastern Shore may see upper 30s by Friday morning. This could result in some patchy frost across these locations. The high slides just offshore of New England on Friday keeping onshore flow ongoing. Another cool day will be on tap with highs very similar to Thursday. It will be a little bit milder Friday night as the airmass modifies along that persistent onshore flow, with lows staying in the mid 40s inland.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 230 PM EDT Wednesday...

A high amplitude ridge axis will be overhead on Saturday, with surface high pressure settling in just off the New England coast. A low pressure center will weaken as it drifts northward across Minnesota, sending a warm front across the Ohio River Valley and into the northern Mid-Atlantic Saturday morning. It may extend just far enough south to give us a very slight chance of light rain showers, particularly across the north and northwest section of the CWA Elsewhere, expect mostly cloudy skies and slightly warmer temperatures, topping out around 70 degrees inland.

The upper ridge remains in place on Sunday. Skies will become partly cloudy as temperatures warm rapidly. Expecting highs to reach 80 degrees to start off the new week. The ridge begins to break down a bit later Monday as the axis shifts offshore. Temperatures will warm even more as southwesterly flow enhances over the area. High temps Monday are forecast to hit the mid 80s for most locations. A cold front may push through later Tuesday giving us our next chance of rain, however, models disagree on its strength and precise timing.
For now, kept temperatures in the mid to upper 80s as a late day frontal passage will allow for peak heating to occur. Kept a slight chance of rain/storms for the area in the afternoon. Expect low temperatures to remain in the upper 50s to lower 60s during this period.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 115 PM EDT Wednesday...

Mid to high level cloud cover continues to stream in across the area ahead of a passing weak cold front. Areas from FVX-RIC-SBY northward are seeing breaks in the clouds form with SCT060 cumulus developing, with SE locations still socked in with SCT/BKN070-100 CIGs . A band of-SHRA remains along the VA/NC line, stretching from ORF/PHF back to GSO. These showers will persist through 22Z as they continue to shift southward. There may be some isolated SHRA developing across RIC/PHF/ORF between 22Z-04Z, though flight conditions should remain VFR throughout the period as the showers will be fairly light. Rain chances end after 06Z.

Outlook: Dry VFR conditions will persist for the rest of the week and into the weekend. Can't rule out a stray shower on Saturday.

MARINE
As of 245 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- SCAs for the coastal waters have been extended through Thursday evening. Further extension into Friday is likely due to lingering 5ft+ seas

- Another round of SCAs in effect for the Chesapeake Bay starting early Thursday morning.

A cold front is located NW of local waters this afternoon with high pressure suppressed to the south. Ahead of the front, a line of showers is crossing over the southernmost waters, leading to occasional gustiness (~20kt). Latest obs show WSW winds at 10-15kt.
Waves are 1-2ft and seas are 4-5ft. Behind the front, winds will turn to the NE and a relatively brief surge of winds is expected.
Winds increase after 06z. Winds over the bay will reach 15-20kt early Thursday morning, then diminish to 10-15kt by the afternoon.
Waves will reach 2-4ft (5ft in mouth of bay). Expecting longer duration and a bit stronger winds (20-25kt) over the coastal waters.
Winds will diminish over coastal waters late Thursday evening, but will remain onshore through the weekend. Therefore, seas of 5-6ft will linger, potentially into Friday afternoon.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected Sat-Tues. Onshore wind direction will persist through Saturday with high pressure situated just to the N of local waters. High pressure gets pushed to the S through mid-week, allowing winds to turn to the S on Sunday.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 855 PM EDT Wednesday...

A prolonged period of NE flow is expected to begin tonight behind a cold front passage, lingering into Friday. While widespread coastal flooding is not expected, localized coastal flooding is possible along portions of the James river with nuisance to minor flooding possible during the Thursday night high tide at Smithfield, VA.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ630-631.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ632- 634.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ650-652- 654-656-658.

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Windmill Point Light
Click for Map
Wed -- 06:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:25 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:27 AM EDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:04 PM EDT     1.03 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:18 PM EDT     0.10 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:50 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Windmill Point Light, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia, Tide feet

Windmill Point
Click for Map
Wed -- 06:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:21 AM EDT     0.06 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:25 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 11:59 AM EDT     1.07 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:07 PM EDT     0.06 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:50 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Windmill Point, Rappahannock River, Virginia, Tide feet

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