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ANZ631 Chesapeake Bay From Windmill Point To New Point Comfort Va- 1251 Pm Est Mon Dec 11 2023
.small craft advisory in effect until 10 pm est this evening...
This afternoon..NW winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt late this afternoon. Waves 3 to 4 ft.
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Tue..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wed night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Fri..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Fri night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.

ANZ600 1251 Pm Est Mon Dec 11 2023
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers..
high pressure builds in from the northwest this afternoon into tonight, and spreads across the mid-atlantic coast Tuesday, before moving offshore Tuesday night. A cold front crosses the coast Wednesday, followed by strong high pressure building into the region Wednesday night into Thursday.

FXUS61 KAKQ 111836 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 136 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

SYNOPSIS
Dry and seasonal conditions continue through the rest of the week with high pressure overhead. The next storm system approaches Sunday into Monday, bringing a chance of rain across the area.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 135 PM EST Monday...

Temps as of 130 PM ranged from the mid 40s NW to the upper 40s SE. Some left over instability behind the cold front has allowed for scattered to widespread CU to develop across the area this afternoon. Expect CU to continue through the afternoon before quickly dissipating around sunset with the loss of diurnal instability. High pressure builds in overnight with calm winds and clear skies allowing for temps to drop into the low- mid 20s inland and low-mid 30s along the coast.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
As of 130 PM EST Monday...

Dry weather continues through the rest of the week with high pressure overhead. A cold front crosses the area Wed, bringing a reinforcing surge of colder air into the region Wed night into Thu.
Highs in the upper 40s N to lower 50s S Tue, upper 40s N to mid 50s S Wed, and mid 40s Thu. Lows in the upper 20s inland to mid 30s along the coast Tue night, low-mid 20s inland and lower 30s along the coast Wed night, and low-mid 20s inland to lower 30s along the coast Thu night.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 130 PM EST Monday...

Strong high pressure remains overhead Fri-Sat with dry weather continuing. There is high confidence in southern stream energy producing low pressure over the Gulf of Mexico Fri-Sat. However, models continue to vary wrt the track of the low with the GFS taking an inland track, the Canadian taking an offshore track, and the Euro remaining suppressed to the S due to the strong high overhead.
Ensembles also show a bimodal solution with some members taking the low up the coast and others keeping it suppressed to the S. As such, will keep NBM PoPs which show a slight chance of rain Sun and a chance of rain Sun night into Mon (25-40% PoP). The best chance of rain appears to be along the coast.

Otherwise, highs in the mid 50s Fri and Sat, lower 50s NW to around 60F SE Sun, and mid 50s N to lower 60s S Mon. Lows in the mid-upper 20s inland and low-mid 30s along the coast Fri night, upper 20s to lower 30s inland and upper 30s along the coast Sat night, mid 30s NW to lower 40s SE Sun night, and upper 20s NW to upper 30s SE Mon night.

AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 1225 PM EST Monday...

SCT CU (3500-4500 ft CIGs) continue to build over the area this afternoon with some locations dropping to BKN at times. Clouds clear late this afternoon into this evening with the loss of diurnal instability with clear skies tonight through Tue. Winds remain NW 10-15 kt with gusts around 20 kt inland and 15-17 kt with gusts to 25 kt near the coast and over the Eastern Shore early this afternoon. Winds gradually diminish late this afternoon, becoming light overnight as high pressure builds in.
With high pressure overhead, winds remain light Tue, becoming SSW 5-8 kt in the afternoon.

Looking ahead: Primarily VFR conditions are expected through Sat with high pressure dominating the local weather.

MARINE
As of 310 AM EST Monday...

The surface cold front has cleared the local waters early this morning. Winds have turned NW ~30 kt with gusts around 40 kt behind the boundary. Waves in the bay are 3-6 ft with seas offshore 6-9 ft.

NW winds 25-35 kt with gusts to 40-45 kt will continue for a few more hours, especially near and south of the mouth of the Ches Bay.
Winds slowly decrease through the morning with Gale Warnings coming to an end by this afternoon. Will need to issue SCA headlines for late morning into the afternoon/evening as winds average 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Winds fall below SCA thresholds in the bay by early tonight but 5+ ft seas will linger offshore into Tuesday morning. High pressure builds into the region today and lingers into mid week before another stronger (~1040mb) high moves in behind a dry frontal passage. Winds will increase behind this front with a period of SCA conditions possible Wednesday night. Seas could rise above 5 ft for the southern Atlantic waters during this timeframe as well. High pressure lingers through the end of the week with models disagreeing substantially regarding the potential for another area of low pressure this weekend.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ630>632-634.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ633- 635>637.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ638.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ650-652-654- 656-658.

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Stingray Point
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:28 AM EST     0.01 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:50 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:35 AM EST     1.44 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:30 PM EST     0.05 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:31 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 04:46 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:53 PM EST     1.12 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Stingray Point, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia, Tide feet

Mill Creek
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:38 AM EST     0.01 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:50 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:53 AM EST     1.55 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:32 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 04:40 PM EST     0.05 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:47 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 10:11 PM EST     1.21 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Mill Creek, Rappahannock River, Virginia, Tide feet

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