Monday, July6, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Deltaville, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:50AMSunset 8:29PM Monday July 6, 2020 5:32 PM EDT (21:32 UTC) Moonrise 9:02PMMoonset 6:03AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ631 Chesapeake Bay From Windmill Point To New Point Comfort Va- 341 Pm Edt Mon Jul 6 2020
Tonight..S winds 15 kt, becoming sw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms, then a slight chance of showers and tstms late.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt late. Waves 1 foot.
Tue night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wed..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Wed night..SE winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of tstms in the evening. A chance of showers.
Thu..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Thu night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Fri night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ600 341 Pm Edt Mon Jul 6 2020
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure becomes centered off the mid atlantic coast through Wednesday. Low pressure approaches from the south late in the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Deltaville CDP, VA
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location: 37.56, -76.27     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 061959 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 359 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2020

SYNOPSIS. Weak high pressure will remain centered along the mid Atlantic coast today, before moving farther offshore on Tuesday. Low pressure moves from the deep south to the Carolina coast on Wednesday, and slowly tracks northeast to the mid Atlantic coast through Friday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/. As of 215 PM EDT Monday .

Latest analysis indicating ~1022 mb sfc high pressure centered well off the Carolina coast with sfc low pressure over Atlantic Canada. A weak sfc trough/frontal boundary extends SW from this low into the northern mid-Atlantic region. More importantly, the flow aloft is from the NW over the NE CONUS/New England, with the H5 gradient weakening farther S over the local area (with more of a WNW direction). A Severe Tstm Watch has been issued across the northern tier of the CWA (from Fluvanna Co to the northern Neck to Accomack VA). The main concern will be from strong heating that has occurred this aftn interacting with the NW flow aloft. SPC mesoanalysis depicts sfc-based CAPES on the order of 3000 J/Kg or more of VA W of the Bay (while it stays somewhat more stable/capped on the eastern shore until very late aftn/early evening). The models then show a greater enhancement of instability moving across the region (especially NE zones) by early evening as shortwave energy moves through the NW flow aloft. Latest PoPS are forecast to be 30-50% from the northern Piedmont to the northern Neck into early evening, buffered by 20-30% across the neighboring counties to the S and E of this (with <20% elsewhere). The best chance for strong to severe storms will likely occur into the evening as the shortwave tracks through and the NE zones (including the MD eastern shore). These zones will be the most favored as the modeled effective shear will be 25-30 kt (elsewhere it will tend to be 20-25 kt or less). PoPs on the MD eastern shore have been raised to 50-60% this evening. The main threats will be from strong/damaging winds with an isolated threat for hail also present in the strongest cores.

Slight chance/chance PoPs linger through 06- 09Z on the eastern shore. Otherwise, drying overnight with lows mainly 70-75F.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 345 PM EDT Monday .

On Tue, the trough aloft will be offshore of the Delmarva coast and overall conditions in the morning should be partly to mostly sunny w/ dry conditions. The overall mid level pattern will feature a developing weak trough over the TN Valley and deep south, with a weak ridge over the local area (especially near the coast). Latest 12Z/06 GFS/NAM/ECMWF generally remain in good agreement that the deeper moisture will stay S of the local area and therefore PoPs will again be mainly diurnal with just scattered 30-40% coverage across south central VA/interior NE NC and mostly 20% or lower elsewhere (did maintain ~30% PoP on the MD eastern shore for some seabreeze induced tstms in the aftn). Highs will be slightly cooler compared to Mon, primarily in the mid 80s to around 90F at the immediate coast and over most of NE NC, with lower 90s elsewhere. It will continue to be humid however. From Tue night into early Wed, the low moves ENE to near the SC coast, and then is expected to linger near the border of NC/SC coast during Wed with weak steering flow aloft. Have at least some PoPs across the southern zones all night Tue night, then spreading N during Wed, with likely PoPs Wed aftn over the S. It will be rather humid Wed with dew pts remaining in the lower to mid 70s even through the aftn hrs, but highs will be slightly cooler (especially in the S) due to more clouds, ranging from the lower to mid 80s S to the upper 80s/near 90 N. The potential for localized flash flooding increases Wed in the south where WPC has a day 3 Marginal for excessive rain, and all zones Thu as PWAT values surge to 1.75"+ along with the weak steering flow. Will have high chc to likely PoPs Thu with highs in the 80s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. As of 345 PM EDT Monday .

After the coastal low moves northeast of the area, expect a broad upper trough to settle in across the eastern part of the United States through the weekend. This will keep a residual surface trough across the area as well leading to the typical summertime scattered afternoon/evening showers and storms. Best chances for this would be Friday and again Saturday with a little more upper moisture but each day will have chances for showers/storms. Temperatures seasonable generally in the upper 80s and lower 90s. Lows in the upper 60s/lower 70s.

AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. As of 200 PM EDT Monday .

VFR conditions prevail at the main terminals early this aftn with mainly SCT cloud coverage and S/SW winds at around 10 kt with some gusts to 15-18kt. Currently watching showers/tstms developing on the Appalachians drifting to the SE and approaching the Piedmont. Have included VCTS in the TAf at RIC after 21Z , and after 22Z at SBY. Also included a TEMPO group for TSRA at SBY after 23Z, as this will be in the area with the greatest storm coverage this evening. Elsewhere, the coverage of showers/tstms will be ~20% or less so have kept the mention out of the TAFs. Brief flight restrictions will be possible (mainly due to reduced VSBYs) in any tstm through this evening. Strong/gusty winds will also be possible at RIC/SBY (potentially some of these could move as far S as PHF/ORF later this evening but confidence in this is quite low). Any lingering showers/tstms should dissipate overnight. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail Tue, and a 20-30% chc of aftn showers/tstms Tue.

Outlook . Expect the coverage of showers/tstms to be greater Wed-Fri as low pressure is forecast to lift NE along the coastal Carolinas and Mid Atlc coast.

MARINE. As of 345 PM EDT Monday .

Generally south winds tonight through Wednesday with the broad high off the coast and weak low pressure over the southeastern states. May be a few hours late this afternoon into this evening with gusts of up to 20 kt in the bay and coastal waters, but these gusts should diminish after midnight. The aforementioned southeast low is expected to move off the Carolina coast later Wed night. This will allow winds to turn onshore and increase. A great deal of uncertainty of the exact track and timing of the low itself, but there will likely be a period of small craft advisory conditions at some point Wednesday night into Thursday. The low will move northeast of the area by Friday, although a lingering trough will continue. As such, winds will briefly turn northwest on Thursday but then shift back south on Friday. Seas will be 1-2 ft in the bay tonight into Wed and 2-3 ft over the open waters.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. As of 345 PM EDT Monday .

Will be issuing another Coastal Flood Statement for Bayside of the MD eastern shore for marginal/nuisance tidal flooding with the upcoming high tide later tonight/early Tue AM due to the persistent southerly flow.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . LKB NEAR TERM . LKB SHORT TERM . LKB/TMG LONG TERM . MRD AVIATION . LKB/TMG MARINE . MRD TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 1 mi32 min SSE 14 G 16 83°F2 ft1020.1 hPa (-1.6)
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 14 mi44 min S 12 G 13 1017.1 hPa
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 22 mi44 min SE 8.9 G 12 84°F 1017 hPa
44072 25 mi32 min 83°F1 ft
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 26 mi44 min WSW 11 G 13 89°F 82°F1015.9 hPa
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 26 mi62 min SSW 1.9 92°F 1017 hPa73°F
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 31 mi44 min S 17 G 19 82°F
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 31 mi44 min SSW 12 G 16 85°F 89°F1017.1 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 32 mi44 min SSW 11 G 13 90°F 83°F1015.7 hPa
44087 37 mi36 min 84°F1 ft
CHBV2 38 mi50 min SSE 11 G 15 83°F 1015.8 hPa
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 40 mi44 min WSW 5.1 G 8 88°F 1016.2 hPa
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 42 mi50 min SW 8.9 G 9.9 88°F 1017 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 42 mi44 min WSW 8 G 9.9
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 43 mi44 min 82°F1016.5 hPa
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 46 mi44 min SE 14 G 18 83°F 1017 hPa
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 47 mi44 min SSW 9.9 G 12 91°F 1016.4 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 47 mi44 min S 15 G 18 87°F 86°F1015.9 hPa

Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
West Point, Middle Peninsula Regional Airport, VA26 mi37 minS 75.00 miFair90°F72°F57%1016.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFYJ

Wind History from FYJ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE5SE4E3CalmSE3SE3S4SE3CalmS3S4CalmCalmS4S4S4SW5S3SE5SE6S5SW7S8S5
1 day agoSE6SE4E5E5SE5SE5E4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmSW4CalmCalmS4SE5SE7SE6
2 days agoW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3N3N3NE5N3N4NE3NE4N14
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Tide / Current Tables for Stingray Point, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Stingray Point
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:50 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:23 AM EDT     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:03 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 11:57 AM EDT     1.22 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:17 PM EDT     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:01 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.51.41.10.70.40.1-0.1-00.20.50.91.11.21.10.90.60.30.1-000.20.611.3

Tide / Current Tables for Mill Creek, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Mill Creek
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:50 AM EDT     1.64 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:50 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:03 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:33 AM EDT     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:15 PM EDT     1.32 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:27 PM EDT     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:30 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:02 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.61.61.51.20.90.50.1-0.1-0.10.10.50.91.21.31.31.10.80.40.1-0-00.20.61

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.