Sunday, December8, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Deltaville, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:04AMSunset 4:49PM Sunday December 8, 2019 1:24 AM EST (06:24 UTC) Moonrise 2:50PMMoonset 3:19AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ631 Chesapeake Bay From Windmill Point To New Point Comfort Va- 103 Am Est Sun Dec 8 2019
Rest of tonight..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sun..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sun night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain likely after midnight.
Mon..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Rain in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon.
Mon night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves around 3 ft. A chance of showers in the evening.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Tue night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw late in the evening, then becoming N 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Waves 3 to 4 ft.
Thu..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft.
Thu night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
ANZ600 103 Am Est Sun Dec 8 2019
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure builds into the area overnight into Sunday. Low pressure tracks across the great lakes region early next week, dragging a strong cold front across the area Tuesday night. Canadian high pressure builds in for the mid week period with low pressure over the southeast states.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Deltaville CDP, VA
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location: 37.56, -76.27     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 080534 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1234 AM EST Sun Dec 8 2019

SYNOPSIS. High pressure moves off the New England coast today. A weak area of low pressure moves north across the Mid Atlantic region Monday. A stronger area of low pressure tracks across the Great Lakes late Monday and into eastern Canada Tuesday. The trailing strong cold front crosses the local area Tuesday night. Canadian high pressure builds in for the mid week period.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/. As of 940 PM EST Saturday .

The current surface analysis shows 1032mb high pressure centered from the Hudson Valley through ern PA/NJ and into nrn VA. Clear, calm, and dry conditions have produced good radiational cooling inland this evening where temperatures have dropped into the upper 20s to low 30s. Temperatures are higher along the coasts of SE VA/NE NC where a light NE wind persists. Good radiational cooling will continue away from the coast overnight, and a light NE wind will persist for the coasts of SE VA/NE NC. As such, low temperatures are expected to fall into the mid/upper 20s inland (low 20s for favored cold spots) to the low/mid 30s at the coast.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/. As of 310 PM EST Saturday .

High pressure will push off the New England coast by around midday Sunday with sunshine giving way to increasing clouds. Winds becoming more ESE in the afternoon will help boost max temps a touch, especially SE. Highs from the upr 40s NW to the mid 50s SE.

Models have come into better agreement with respect to a coastal trough/weak low center that will quickly develop and lift NE across the eastern Carolinas late Sunday night, then affecting eastern VA/Delmarva on Monday (especially during the morning hours). Some drier air is shown to return in the afternoon. Have adjusted the forecast to show slight chc to low chc PoPs (15-40%) across the southern half of the FA prior to 06z Monday (highest NE NC). PoPs then ramp up to high end chc (far north) to likely (south) by 12z Monday. Best chance of rain looks to be from roughly 10z-17z Monday across far eastern VA/NE NC and including the lower eastern Shore (60-90% PoPs). Will show decreasing PoPs across the W/SW during this time as drier air begins to enter the Piedmont by late morning. Some disagreement in the models for Monday afternoon as to just how much drying occurs. NAM/GFS show generally dry conditions returning, except at the coast. ECMWF lingers additional showers through the Piedmont. For that reason, will carry chc PoPs (30-50%) for much of the area after 18z Monday and some likely PoPs along the immediate coast/Eastern shore (55-65%). Mild Monday despite the clouds/pcpn occuring. However, if pcpn is slower to exit or if it's more widespread in the aftn, then could be looking at a bust potential, especially along/west of I-95. Highs from the mid/upr 50s Piedmont to the mid/upr 60s SE.

Mild Monday night with SW flow in place and considerable cloudiness ahead of next cold front crossing the OH/TN valleys. Will carry mainly slight chc to low end chc PoPs (highest north). Lows from the low/mid 50s NW to near 60 SE.

For Tuesday, the aforementioned cold front slowly advances toward the local area before crossing during the late afternoon/evening hours. Models continue to back off on the arrival time of pcpn in the warm sector ahead of the cold front, now favoring a midday or early afternoon arrival west (~18z) and a late afternoon/evening arrival east (21z Tue-03z Wed). Will favor a dry start to the day SE with no higher than 30-40% PoPs across the far NW prior to 18z. Will increase PoPs to likely across the Piedmont after 18z with slight chc PoPs spreading east into far SE VA/NE NC prior to 00Z Wed. Strong WAA ahead of the front (and even some breaks in the clouds SE) should allow temps to reach the mid/upr 60s Piedmont to low 70s SE VA & NE NC given the delayed timing of pcpn.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/. As of 345 PM EST Saturday .

The extended forecast period begins with a cold frontal passage Tuesday night with rain chances continuing into early Wednesday afternoon before drier air filters into the region. Overnight lows Tuesday will fall into the mid 30s across the northern tier of counties with low to mid 40s expected across the south. A period of rain/snow mix is still possible across the north into Wednesday morning but surface temperatures are forecast to remain above the freezing mark. 07.12Z EPS probabilities for >1" of snow continue to hover in the 10-20% range across the far north and northwest portions of the area through Wednesday morning before precip exits the area. High pressure builds in with decreasing clouds by Wednesday afternoon/evening, high temperatures in the mid 40s to low 50s. Dry air and clearing skies Wednesday night will allow temperatures to fall into the low to mid 20s NW to right around 30 degrees SE.

Models begin to diverge significantly on Thursday with the GFS bringing a shortwave trough across the region Thursday afternoon. The ECMWF and CMC are generally farther south and much slower with the shortwave. Strong (1040+mb) surface high pressure will ridge southwest into the area on Thursday with northeasterly winds keeping high temps only in the upper 30s and low 40s. Will side with the slower EC/CMC solution and keep the forecast dry on Thursday. Cold again Thursday night, low to mid 20s along and west of I-95 with upper 20s and low 30s to the east. Upper air pattern differences continue among the global models for the late week period but there is general agreement with respect to another wet period for next weekend. Will show increasing PoPs late Friday into Saturday with temperatures moderating a bit due to increased moisture/cloud cover.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 1230 AM EST Sunday .

VFR conditions cont thru the forecast period. High/mid level clouds increase through the aftrn and eve hrs ahead of a weak low dvlpng along the Carolina coast. Could see a shwr across sern TAF sites by the end of the forecast period, but no flight restrictions are expected until after 06Z when a decent slug of moisture results in lowering CIGS/VSBYS in both rain/fog.

OUTLOOK . Periods of lower CIGS/VSBYS in both rain/fog are likely late tonite thru Tues nite, as low pressure tracks well to our NW. The trailing cold front will cross the area Tues nite. High pressure builds into the area for the mid week period.

MARINE. As of 355 PM EST Saturday .

High pressure currently building in from the N and will settle off the northern mid-Atlc coast on Sunday. N to NE winds have diminished to ~10kt N and 15-20kt along the SE coast. SCA headlines have ended except over the southern VA coastal waters (through 00Z) and Currituck sound (through 00Z), while remaining through 03Z for the NC coastal waters where seas are still 5-6 ft.

Winds along with waves/seas continue to subside by later tonight as the pressure gradient relaxes. For Sunday, as the sfc high slides off the mid-Atlc coast, winds will be easterly 5-10 kts. Waves in the bay 1-2 ft and seas 2-3 ft/3-4ft NC waters.

On Monday a warm front lifts north across the area and the flow becomes southerly. Wavewatch continues to depict seas coming up rather quickly, along with some increasing SE swell. Winds will likely be close to or reach SCA thresholds along the coast Mon- Tue, with Mon a bit more uncertain for the Bay. In any event, expect waves to build to at least 2-3 ft for the Bay and seas to at least 4-6 ft Mon, with 6-8 ft possible by Mon night/early Tue (highest N). Winds shift to the NW in the wake of a cold front Tue night with SCA conditions likely through Wed. There will potentially be another stronger surge Wed night/Thu (though this is more uncertain with model differences with respect to how far south the front gets as strong sfc high pressure will be centered to our N.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . MPR NEAR TERM . AJZ/JDM SHORT TERM . JDM LONG TERM . RHR AVIATION . MPR MARINE . CMF/LKB


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 14 mi55 min NE 11 G 14 1033.2 hPa
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 22 mi55 min ENE 14 G 16 41°F 1032.7 hPa
44072 25 mi35 min SE 14 G 16 41°F
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 26 mi55 min WSW 1.9 27°F 1033 hPa26°F
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 26 mi55 min NE 9.9 G 12 41°F 48°F1031.9 hPa
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 31 mi55 min N 2.9 G 4.1 34°F 44°F1032.1 hPa
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 31 mi55 min NNE 5.1 G 7 48°F
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 32 mi55 min ENE 8.9 G 12 44°F1032.5 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 33 mi37 min 47°F975.1 hPa
44041 - Jamestown, VA 36 mi31 min 33°F 1032.7 hPa
44087 37 mi55 min 49°F2 ft
CHBV2 38 mi61 min NE 12 G 13 42°F 1030.6 hPa
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 40 mi55 min NE 12 G 15 1031.3 hPa
44064 40 mi35 min ENE 14 G 16 42°F 1031.6 hPa
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 42 mi55 min NNE 2.9 G 5.1 1032.2 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 42 mi55 min ENE 2.9 G 5.1
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 43 mi55 min 48°F1031.7 hPa
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 46 mi55 min NE 13 G 16 43°F 1031.7 hPa
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 47 mi55 min NE 8 G 9.9 42°F 1031.6 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 47 mi61 min ENE 7 G 8.9 37°F 43°F1032.9 hPa

Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
West Point, Middle Peninsula Regional Airport, VA26 mi30 minN 010.00 miFair26°F24°F94%1033.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFYJ

Wind History from FYJ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmN8N6N3N8N3N3NE6NE8N7N4NE4CalmNE5N4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3S3SE5SE5S6SW8SW7SW7SW6SW7S6SW7SW7
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Tide / Current Tables for Stingray Point, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Stingray Point
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:06 AM EST     0.11 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:19 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 07:07 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:09 AM EST     1.27 feet High Tide
Sun -- 01:53 PM EST     0.17 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:49 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:46 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:21 PM EST     1.12 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.10.20.40.70.91.21.31.21.10.90.60.40.20.20.30.50.811.11.110.80.5

Tide / Current Tables for Mill Creek, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Mill Creek
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:16 AM EST     0.12 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:20 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 07:07 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:27 AM EST     1.37 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:50 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:03 PM EST     0.19 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:47 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 08:39 PM EST     1.21 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.20.10.20.30.611.21.41.41.210.70.50.30.20.30.50.711.21.21.10.9

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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