Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Deltaville, VA
May 17, 2024 12:42 PM EDT (16:42 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:53 AM Sunset 8:10 PM Moonrise 1:42 PM Moonset 2:00 AM |
ANZ631 Chesapeake Bay From Windmill Point To New Point Comfort Va- 948 Am Edt Fri May 17 2024
Rest of today - N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne late. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tonight - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers after midnight.
Sat - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely.
Sat night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely, mainly in the evening.
Sun - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Sun night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Mon - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Mon night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Tue - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tue night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
ANZ600 948 Am Edt Fri May 17 2024
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
a low pressure system moves well offshore Friday through the weekend. The next system moves in Saturday night with another round of elevated winds and seas Sunday and Monday.
a low pressure system moves well offshore Friday through the weekend. The next system moves in Saturday night with another round of elevated winds and seas Sunday and Monday.
FXUS61 KAKQ 171600 AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1200 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024
SYNOPSIS
Mainly dry conditions prevail through the early to middle part of this afternoon, but widespread showers and a few storms return tonight into Saturday. Showers linger Saturday night into Sunday, especially across southern Virginia and northeast North Carolina. Dry weather returns Monday, with a warming trend leading to a more summerlike pattern by the middle of the week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 1155 AM EDT Friday...
Key Messages:
- Mainly dry through mid/late this afternoon, but cool with low clouds near the coast.
- Rain chances increase from west to east this evening into tonight, with locally heavy rainfall possible. A flood watch has been issued over portions of the Piedmont.
- Showers continue Saturday with below normal high temperatures.
Sfc high pressure is centered across eastern Canada and northern New England, ridging into the local area. Low clouds and onshore flow are in place along the coast, and this has spread inland over the past 1-2 hrs so the sky is now mostly cloudy for all areas. Temperatures range from the low-mid 70s well inland, to the low-mid 60s along the coast. High temperatures will be in the mid/upper 70s (perhaps near 80F) well W of the Chesapeake Bay. Closer to the water, temps will struggle to get much higher than the upper 60s due to continued onshore flow and cloudiness. Cannot rule out an isolated shower or storm across our far western counties late this afternoon. The best chance would across the SW after 21z/5 PM.
A southern stream shortwave will advance across the Deep South this evening into tonight. Overrunning moisture spreads over the area from W to E late tonight, with increasing chances for showers and isolated storms (PWATs increase to 1.6-1.8"). The tstm potential should be confined mainly W of I-95, removed from the cooler/less stable marine airmass closer to the coast. Relatively mild tonight with lows around 60F, except in the low-mid 50s on the eastern shore. There remains some disagreement among the CAMs as to where the highest coverage and QPF sets up. As of now, HRRR probability- matched mean QPF fields highlight the highest QPF W of I-95 and especially in the I-64 corridor NW of RIC. Locally heavy rainfall is likely in spots. This is also where the highest PoPs have been drawn in. WPC has a slight ERO just NW of our wrn CWA line, with a marginal across our W/NW counties. The axis of heavier rain may shift eastward near and after sunrise Saturday, with some signal for heavy rainfall also across srn portions of the area with some elevated instability sliding through.
Weak sfc low pressure tracks just S of the area Sat afternoon. While moist WSW flow aloft and deep lift continues over the region in advance of the approaching upper-level system, coverage of rainfall may be hit or miss later Saturday aftn as earlier day rain/convection limits any aftn destabilization. Current thinking is most of the heavier showers and storms stay to our W or SW, though cannot rule out a few storms clipping our SW counties. High temps Sat will remain below normal w/ the onshore flow and are in the 60s N to 70s S. The vast majority of the QPF falls tonight through Saturday and totals of 0.25-0.75" are expected on the eastern shore, 0.75-1.25" over the Northern Neck, 1.25-1.75" across most of central and SE VA, and 2+" well W of I-95 and especially out towards wrn Louisa and Fluvanna counties. After a second look at rainfall totals and collaboration with neighboring offices to our N and W, decided to issue a flood watch for portions of the VA Piedmont. Some heavy rainfall and 1-3" is possible over areas w/ low 3- and 6-hr flash flood guidance (where 3-5" of rain fell earlier this week).
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
As of 1150 AM EDT Friday...
Key Message:
- Dreary weather and additional showers are expected Sunday, but model trends suggest additional QPF amounts will be 0.50" or less. High temperatures will remain well below normal.
PWATs drop off a bit on Sun as the upper trough axis moves overhead, and shifts off to the SE by Sun evening. The overall model trends suggest lower additional QPF amounts, though the 12Z/17 NAM is now slower and wetter compared to the rest of guidance. Have trended QPF amounts down on Sunday from the previous forecast (but did not go as dry as some of the models given the 12Z NAM). Overall, rain chances will end from north to south later Sun/Sun night. Even with the trend to a drier solution for Sunday, it will still be relatively unpleasant with some scattered light rain (highest coverage S), cloudy skies, and highs only the 60s (perhaps around 70F across the far N where some partial sunshine is possible late in the day).
Partly cloudy NW to mostly cloudy SE Sun night with lows in the 50s.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 325 AM EDT Friday...
Key Messages:
- Temperatures remain below normal Monday with mostly cloudy skies along the coast.
- Dry/sensible weather expected Tuesday and Wednesday with temperatures trending much warmer.
Low pressure gradually shifts offshore Monday, though an additional low may develop S of the upper feature offshore. High pressure also nudges south into the Mid-Atlantic. NE flow is still expected (breeziest across southern coastal areas), keeping temperatures below normal. The low levels may dry out some W of I-95, allowing temperatures to warm into the 70s. Upper 60s are expected again along the coast. The majority of the area stays dry with just a slight chc of shower along the coast. Lows Mon night in the 50s with some upper 40s possible well inland.
Stacked sfc and upper low meanders offshore of the Carolinas Tuesday before finally being kicked out out to sea Wednesday and Thursday.
Dry Tuesday with warmer temps in the mid/upper 70s inland and lower 70s at the coast. The warming trend continues Wed into Thu with 80s making a comeback. Even could see some upper 80s for some areas Thu.
There is decent agreement among the global models that a cold front will cross the area later Thursday afternoon. Will have a chc of showers and storms over most of the area. A little cooler behind the front to end the week. Overnight lows will be in the 50s Tue night and 60s for the remainder of the week.
AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 700 AM EDT Friday...
Low pressure offshore is advecting a marine airmass towards the region early this morning. CIGs at SBY and ORF have been oscillating between MVFR and IFR, with MVFR at PHF. ECG recently went SCT but MVFR may return for a few hrs this morning. MVFR CIGs persist through late morning at the coast, then mainly VFR by this afternoon with E-NE 5-10 kt winds. Scattered to numerous rain showers move in from the W after 00z Sat. Flight restrictions are likely in both CIGs and VSBY, with heavy rain possible.
Outlook: A slow moving low pressure system will bring showers, a chance of thunderstorms, and degraded flight conditions Saturday, with at least a chance for showers (and flight restrictions likely) Sunday into early Monday.
MARINE
As of 325 AM EDT Friday...
Key Messages:
- Lingering SCA conditions from waves 4-6 ft over the northern coastal waters today.
- Increasing NE wind and waves for the weekend. Small craft advisory conditions are expected once again for the entire marine area. Wind gusts to 20 to 25 kt and seas building to 4 to 7 feet.
Weak high pressure is centered inland of the Mid-Atlantic coast early this morning, with low pressure well offshore. A boundary has dropped S along the coast this morning, which resulted in a NE wind of 15-20kt with gusts to ~25kt N of Parramore Is., where seas have also built to 4-6ft. SCAs are in effect through 7 AM N of Parramore Is., and through 7 PM N of Chincoteague. Elsewhere, the wind is generally NE at or below 15kt, with seas 3-4ft S of Parramore Is., and waves in the Bay mainly ~2ft. Low pressure tracks farther away from the coast today as another weak low pressure system slowly approaches from the W tonight into Saturday. Meanwhile, high pressure will remain nearly stationary over New England. The wind will remain NE today and diminish to 5-10kt by later this aftn, before becoming E to SE 5-10kt tonight, then E 10-15kt Saturday.
Seas will mainly be 3-4ft tonight into Saturday.
Low pressure becomes more organized off the Carolina coast Saturday night into Sunday, before very slowly pulling away from the coast through Monday. Meanwhile, high pressure slowly builds in from the N. A NE wind is expected to range from 15-20kt (strongest for the lower Bay and ocean) with seas building to 4-5ft N and 5-6ft S and 3- 5ft waves in the mouth of the Bay. SCAs are likely during this time period for the lower Bay/ocean, with less confidence of SCA conditions elsewhere. High pressure builds across the Mid-Atlantic coast Tuesday into Wednesday as weak low pressure lingers off the Southeast coast.
HYDROLOGY
As of 1130 AM EDT Friday...
Flood Warnings remain in effect for the Meherrin River near Lawrenceville and Nottoway River near Stony Creek for minor flooding. Levels at Lawrenceville and Stony Creek are expected to crest today. See FLSAKQ for additional information.
While uncertainty remains with respect to rainfall amounts and exact placement over the weekend, median expected amounts have dropped off more into the 1.00-1.50" range across area basins over the weekend. This still may be enough to lead to additional flooding concerns this weekend into early next week.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...Flood Watch from 6 PM EDT this evening through Saturday morning for VAZ048-060-061-066>068-509.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ650.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1200 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024
SYNOPSIS
Mainly dry conditions prevail through the early to middle part of this afternoon, but widespread showers and a few storms return tonight into Saturday. Showers linger Saturday night into Sunday, especially across southern Virginia and northeast North Carolina. Dry weather returns Monday, with a warming trend leading to a more summerlike pattern by the middle of the week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 1155 AM EDT Friday...
Key Messages:
- Mainly dry through mid/late this afternoon, but cool with low clouds near the coast.
- Rain chances increase from west to east this evening into tonight, with locally heavy rainfall possible. A flood watch has been issued over portions of the Piedmont.
- Showers continue Saturday with below normal high temperatures.
Sfc high pressure is centered across eastern Canada and northern New England, ridging into the local area. Low clouds and onshore flow are in place along the coast, and this has spread inland over the past 1-2 hrs so the sky is now mostly cloudy for all areas. Temperatures range from the low-mid 70s well inland, to the low-mid 60s along the coast. High temperatures will be in the mid/upper 70s (perhaps near 80F) well W of the Chesapeake Bay. Closer to the water, temps will struggle to get much higher than the upper 60s due to continued onshore flow and cloudiness. Cannot rule out an isolated shower or storm across our far western counties late this afternoon. The best chance would across the SW after 21z/5 PM.
A southern stream shortwave will advance across the Deep South this evening into tonight. Overrunning moisture spreads over the area from W to E late tonight, with increasing chances for showers and isolated storms (PWATs increase to 1.6-1.8"). The tstm potential should be confined mainly W of I-95, removed from the cooler/less stable marine airmass closer to the coast. Relatively mild tonight with lows around 60F, except in the low-mid 50s on the eastern shore. There remains some disagreement among the CAMs as to where the highest coverage and QPF sets up. As of now, HRRR probability- matched mean QPF fields highlight the highest QPF W of I-95 and especially in the I-64 corridor NW of RIC. Locally heavy rainfall is likely in spots. This is also where the highest PoPs have been drawn in. WPC has a slight ERO just NW of our wrn CWA line, with a marginal across our W/NW counties. The axis of heavier rain may shift eastward near and after sunrise Saturday, with some signal for heavy rainfall also across srn portions of the area with some elevated instability sliding through.
Weak sfc low pressure tracks just S of the area Sat afternoon. While moist WSW flow aloft and deep lift continues over the region in advance of the approaching upper-level system, coverage of rainfall may be hit or miss later Saturday aftn as earlier day rain/convection limits any aftn destabilization. Current thinking is most of the heavier showers and storms stay to our W or SW, though cannot rule out a few storms clipping our SW counties. High temps Sat will remain below normal w/ the onshore flow and are in the 60s N to 70s S. The vast majority of the QPF falls tonight through Saturday and totals of 0.25-0.75" are expected on the eastern shore, 0.75-1.25" over the Northern Neck, 1.25-1.75" across most of central and SE VA, and 2+" well W of I-95 and especially out towards wrn Louisa and Fluvanna counties. After a second look at rainfall totals and collaboration with neighboring offices to our N and W, decided to issue a flood watch for portions of the VA Piedmont. Some heavy rainfall and 1-3" is possible over areas w/ low 3- and 6-hr flash flood guidance (where 3-5" of rain fell earlier this week).
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
As of 1150 AM EDT Friday...
Key Message:
- Dreary weather and additional showers are expected Sunday, but model trends suggest additional QPF amounts will be 0.50" or less. High temperatures will remain well below normal.
PWATs drop off a bit on Sun as the upper trough axis moves overhead, and shifts off to the SE by Sun evening. The overall model trends suggest lower additional QPF amounts, though the 12Z/17 NAM is now slower and wetter compared to the rest of guidance. Have trended QPF amounts down on Sunday from the previous forecast (but did not go as dry as some of the models given the 12Z NAM). Overall, rain chances will end from north to south later Sun/Sun night. Even with the trend to a drier solution for Sunday, it will still be relatively unpleasant with some scattered light rain (highest coverage S), cloudy skies, and highs only the 60s (perhaps around 70F across the far N where some partial sunshine is possible late in the day).
Partly cloudy NW to mostly cloudy SE Sun night with lows in the 50s.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 325 AM EDT Friday...
Key Messages:
- Temperatures remain below normal Monday with mostly cloudy skies along the coast.
- Dry/sensible weather expected Tuesday and Wednesday with temperatures trending much warmer.
Low pressure gradually shifts offshore Monday, though an additional low may develop S of the upper feature offshore. High pressure also nudges south into the Mid-Atlantic. NE flow is still expected (breeziest across southern coastal areas), keeping temperatures below normal. The low levels may dry out some W of I-95, allowing temperatures to warm into the 70s. Upper 60s are expected again along the coast. The majority of the area stays dry with just a slight chc of shower along the coast. Lows Mon night in the 50s with some upper 40s possible well inland.
Stacked sfc and upper low meanders offshore of the Carolinas Tuesday before finally being kicked out out to sea Wednesday and Thursday.
Dry Tuesday with warmer temps in the mid/upper 70s inland and lower 70s at the coast. The warming trend continues Wed into Thu with 80s making a comeback. Even could see some upper 80s for some areas Thu.
There is decent agreement among the global models that a cold front will cross the area later Thursday afternoon. Will have a chc of showers and storms over most of the area. A little cooler behind the front to end the week. Overnight lows will be in the 50s Tue night and 60s for the remainder of the week.
AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 700 AM EDT Friday...
Low pressure offshore is advecting a marine airmass towards the region early this morning. CIGs at SBY and ORF have been oscillating between MVFR and IFR, with MVFR at PHF. ECG recently went SCT but MVFR may return for a few hrs this morning. MVFR CIGs persist through late morning at the coast, then mainly VFR by this afternoon with E-NE 5-10 kt winds. Scattered to numerous rain showers move in from the W after 00z Sat. Flight restrictions are likely in both CIGs and VSBY, with heavy rain possible.
Outlook: A slow moving low pressure system will bring showers, a chance of thunderstorms, and degraded flight conditions Saturday, with at least a chance for showers (and flight restrictions likely) Sunday into early Monday.
MARINE
As of 325 AM EDT Friday...
Key Messages:
- Lingering SCA conditions from waves 4-6 ft over the northern coastal waters today.
- Increasing NE wind and waves for the weekend. Small craft advisory conditions are expected once again for the entire marine area. Wind gusts to 20 to 25 kt and seas building to 4 to 7 feet.
Weak high pressure is centered inland of the Mid-Atlantic coast early this morning, with low pressure well offshore. A boundary has dropped S along the coast this morning, which resulted in a NE wind of 15-20kt with gusts to ~25kt N of Parramore Is., where seas have also built to 4-6ft. SCAs are in effect through 7 AM N of Parramore Is., and through 7 PM N of Chincoteague. Elsewhere, the wind is generally NE at or below 15kt, with seas 3-4ft S of Parramore Is., and waves in the Bay mainly ~2ft. Low pressure tracks farther away from the coast today as another weak low pressure system slowly approaches from the W tonight into Saturday. Meanwhile, high pressure will remain nearly stationary over New England. The wind will remain NE today and diminish to 5-10kt by later this aftn, before becoming E to SE 5-10kt tonight, then E 10-15kt Saturday.
Seas will mainly be 3-4ft tonight into Saturday.
Low pressure becomes more organized off the Carolina coast Saturday night into Sunday, before very slowly pulling away from the coast through Monday. Meanwhile, high pressure slowly builds in from the N. A NE wind is expected to range from 15-20kt (strongest for the lower Bay and ocean) with seas building to 4-5ft N and 5-6ft S and 3- 5ft waves in the mouth of the Bay. SCAs are likely during this time period for the lower Bay/ocean, with less confidence of SCA conditions elsewhere. High pressure builds across the Mid-Atlantic coast Tuesday into Wednesday as weak low pressure lingers off the Southeast coast.
HYDROLOGY
As of 1130 AM EDT Friday...
Flood Warnings remain in effect for the Meherrin River near Lawrenceville and Nottoway River near Stony Creek for minor flooding. Levels at Lawrenceville and Stony Creek are expected to crest today. See FLSAKQ for additional information.
While uncertainty remains with respect to rainfall amounts and exact placement over the weekend, median expected amounts have dropped off more into the 1.00-1.50" range across area basins over the weekend. This still may be enough to lead to additional flooding concerns this weekend into early next week.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...Flood Watch from 6 PM EDT this evening through Saturday morning for VAZ048-060-061-066>068-509.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ650.
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KTGI TANGIER ISLAND,VA | 24 sm | 7 min | N 07 | 10 sm | Overcast | 66°F | 59°F | 78% | 29.96 |
Stingray Point
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:43 AM EDT 0.28 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:00 AM EDT Moonset
Fri -- 05:53 AM EDT Sunrise
Fri -- 06:27 AM EDT 1.09 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:03 PM EDT 0.25 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:41 PM EDT Moonrise
Fri -- 06:58 PM EDT 1.18 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:09 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:43 AM EDT 0.28 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:00 AM EDT Moonset
Fri -- 05:53 AM EDT Sunrise
Fri -- 06:27 AM EDT 1.09 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:03 PM EDT 0.25 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:41 PM EDT Moonrise
Fri -- 06:58 PM EDT 1.18 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:09 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Stingray Point, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.3 |
| 1 am |
| 0.3 |
| 2 am |
| 0.4 |
| 3 am |
| 0.6 |
| 4 am |
| 0.8 |
| 5 am |
| 1 |
| 6 am |
| 1.1 |
| 7 am |
| 1.1 |
| 8 am |
| 1 |
| 9 am |
| 0.8 |
| 10 am |
| 0.6 |
| 11 am |
| 0.4 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 5 pm |
| 1 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 7 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 9 pm |
| 1 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.6 |
Mill Creek
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:53 AM EDT 0.30 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:01 AM EDT Moonset
Fri -- 05:54 AM EDT Sunrise
Fri -- 07:45 AM EDT 1.18 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:13 PM EDT 0.27 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:41 PM EDT Moonrise
Fri -- 08:10 PM EDT Sunset
Fri -- 08:16 PM EDT 1.28 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:53 AM EDT 0.30 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:01 AM EDT Moonset
Fri -- 05:54 AM EDT Sunrise
Fri -- 07:45 AM EDT 1.18 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:13 PM EDT 0.27 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:41 PM EDT Moonrise
Fri -- 08:10 PM EDT Sunset
Fri -- 08:16 PM EDT 1.28 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Mill Creek, Rappahannock River, Virginia, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.5 |
| 1 am |
| 0.3 |
| 2 am |
| 0.3 |
| 3 am |
| 0.4 |
| 4 am |
| 0.6 |
| 5 am |
| 0.8 |
| 6 am |
| 1 |
| 7 am |
| 1.1 |
| 8 am |
| 1.2 |
| 9 am |
| 1.1 |
| 10 am |
| 0.9 |
| 11 am |
| 0.7 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 6 pm |
| 1 |
| 7 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.9 |
Wakefield, VA,
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