Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Montara, CA

SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1202 AM PDT Tue Apr 29 2025

The marine layer is reorganizing with a robust stratus deck offshore. The inland extent is limited mostly to the coast as high pressure keeps the layer of cool-moist air relatively shallow. A SW-NE oriented ridge will dominate the pattern today, allowing fair weather. Max temperatures will reach the mid to upper 70s for inland areas, with low 60s along the coast. A plume of upper level moisture will move in this evening, which will likely bring some high clouds and could make for a fantastic sunset.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 1202 AM PDT Tue Apr 29 2025

The ridge will begin to weaken Wednesday as a short wave trough moves through. The models have been consistent with the existence of this feature, however the timing has shifted from Thursday to Wednesday over the last 24 hours. It now looks like the ridge will start to reorganize on Thursday before a more robust long wave trough approaches on Friday. This trough will likely spawn a cut-off low on Saturday that will move into Southern California by Sunday. This shifting pattern will bring fairly consistent warm and dry weather through the work-week with cooler, wetter conditions expected this weekend. The trough will support a surface cold front that will move through late Friday or very early Saturday. High PWAT anomalies ahead of the front will likely support some light, beneficial rain Friday night through Saturday morning, with some lingering post-frontal showers possible Saturday afternoon. While the rain could be widespread in areal coverage, the front should be moving pretty fast and there's only a 25% chance of exceeding 0.1" outside of the coastal mountains. Temperatures will also drop well below normal as overcast skies and a colder air mass move in. Perhaps the most impactful hazard is strong NW winds. The NBM ensemble mean, which typically has a low bias for these type of events, is showing 30-35 mph wind gusts on Friday, 35-45 mph on Saturday, and 30-40 mph on Sunday. The ECMWF ensemble is still the most aggressive model, with high confidence that SFO will see gusts above 40 mph on Saturday, although Friday and Sunday don't look nearly as bad in this ensemble. The confidence will increase over the next few days as higher resolution models start to resolve the event. As it stands, there is a decent chance for a wind advisory.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 950 PM PDT Mon Apr 28 2025

MVFR-IFR stratus building into the western San Mateo Peninsula and the Monterey Bay region, otherwise generally VFR throughout the region. A compressing marine layer means that inland intrusion of stratus will be weaker tonight, allowing inland terminals to stay generally clear. Moderate confidence that SFO and OAK get ceilings sometime tonight. Clearing should begin around 17-19Z with patchy stratus remaining along the immediate coast. Breezy onshore winds should develop Tuesday afternoon and last into the evening. Some stratus will return to the immediate coast Tuesday evening but coverage will be more limited as high pressure builds over the region, further compressing the marine layer.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR at present with moderate confidence of MVFR overnight. Main source of uncertainty comes from compression of the marine layer, if it compresses more than currently forecast it will be more difficult for stratus to flow to the terminal area.
Clearing should occur around 17-18Z. Breezy west-northwest wind develops Tuesday afternoon into the evening. Low confidence of MVFR-IFR stratus developing at the terminal near or shortly after the end of the TAF period.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals.. MVFR-IFR stratus has settled in and continues through Tuesday morning, with clearing expected to start around 17-18Z. Light onshore breezes will develop Tuesday afternoon, diminishing in the evening. Model data is showing an early return of stratus to MRY near sunset Tuesday, with moderate confidence at this time.

MARINE
(Tonight through next Sunday)
Issued at 844 PM PDT Mon Apr 28 2025

Fresh to strong north to northwest winds continue over the coastal waters through Wednesday as high pressure builds. Near gale force gusts are expected over the far outer coastal waters.
Probabilistic guidance shows a 30 to 40% chance of gale force gusts occurring over the far northern outer waters. Moderate seas are expected over the outer waters as wave heights build to 8 to 11 feet. Winds diminish midweek before another, deeper, upper level trough and surface cold front moves across the coastal waters and bays late Friday with strong winds and hazardous marine conditions returning into the weekend.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT early this morning for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.