Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Fordsville, KY

UPDATE
Issued at 847 PM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

Combination of the deep trough axis, steep low-level lapse rates from this afternoon as very cold air continues to advect into the area. KLVX radar has shown a pretty stout and prolonged band of snow across Floyd Co Indiana across parts of the Louisville Metro with a few additional bands over the area. As we the low-level lapse rates become less steep and the trough axis pushes off to the east the snow showers and bands will start to diminish with some locations picking up to an inch where the bands were able to sit for a prolonged period of time. Still think the vast majority will see a coating to maybe a half inch of snow a few isolated spots may approach an inch. Have upgraded the grids to account for this ongoing and continuing snow showers with increased PoPs and slightly increased snow amounts. Gusty winds of 25 to 35 mph will remain adding low visibility to ongoing snow showers with potential slick spots developing on area roads as temperatures continue to fall into the low 20s.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Issued at 357 PM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

Temperatures across the region have been cooling this afternoon, with upper 30s to low 40s now being reported from KY Mesonet obs.
Strong CAA regime is moving in behind a cold front that has passed through, with gusty NW winds that are gusting over 30 mph. These gusts will continue overnight in a post-frontal flow.

Mesoanalysis shows a pocket of 700mb FGEN across southern IN, located with the light precip moving into our forecast area from the north. With temps cooling in the column, lapse rates are becoming quite steep, with model soundings and ACARs data continuing to show a marginal moisture layer, with saturation just reaching the bottom portion of the DGZ. This should be enough to squeeze out some light precip, which initially could be as brief light mix of p-types before switching over to all snow. Given how steep lapse rates are, we could see some brief but healthy snow rates that could reduce vis for a very short period of time. There is rather good agreement on the snow squall parameter highlighting our area for the afternoon, though there's some reluctance to call these radar returns squalls given we are not fully saturated in the DGZ. Expect to see mainly streaks of light snow accums, mostly on grassy or elevated surfaces, across portions of southern IN, north-central KY, and the Bluegrass area.

Given the warm antecedent conditions, road temps are mainly in the 40s this afternoon, with sub-sfc temps in the 50s. This should help keep our roads un-impacted for the most part, unless any snow rates just overcome those warmer ground temps. Eventually road temps will drop below freezing by tomorrow morning as air temps fall into the upper teens to low 20s, which could pose a low risk for re-freezing any wet surfaces. However, with gusty winds continue overnight, gusts usually do a good job at drying out the roads. The combination of those cold temps and gusty winds will drop our wind chills well into the low teens, with single digits possible too by tomorrow morning.

Precip chances exit to the east overnight, leading to a drier stretch after 06z tonight and continuing throughout tomorrow. Much colder temps are in store for tomorrow as CAA pattern remains in place, with highs struggling to make it above freezing. Most, if not all, of the forecast area could remain below freezing tomorrow, with highs in the upper 20s and low 30s. Should have a sunny day as we will be in between shortwaves.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 357 PM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

===== Friday - Saturday =====

We remain under general upper troughing for Friday, with another shortwave expected to pinwheel around the primary low sitting over the upper Great Lakes. This shortwave will bring a second chance for light snow to the area Friday morning, mainly for southern IN and north-central KY throughout the morning hours. One limitation working in our favor could be limited moisture, with model soundings showing drier air below 850mb, but perhaps enough saturation in the DGZ to produce some light snow. Given the cold air expected to be in place, with temps in the upper teens to low 20s Friday AM, SLRs ranging between 14:1 to 16:1 will be possible. Despite little overall liquid equivalent, those snow ratios would be enough to produce at least some light snow accums. As mentioned in the prior discussion, this round of snow chances could be tough to message as amounts would not meet any 1" criteria, but impact during the morning commute could be enough to warrant some enhanced messaging, such as an impact-based advisory. No decision on that yet, but something to keep an eye on.

After that morning round of snow chances, mostly dry weather is expected for the rest of Friday. A brief period of WAA will help boost our sfc temps above freezing and into the low to mid-40s later on in the day.

By Friday night and into Saturday, a stronger mid-level vort wing will swing down into the TN Valley, supporting a third round of snow chances to the area. Better moisture in the column will provide better chances for snow, with soundings suggesting steeper lapse rates with moisture through the DGZ. Some guidance has been lighting up the snow squall parameter, especially across northern and eastern KY. Combined with some breezy wind conditions, we could see some brief heavy snow showers or squalls move through. Best chance for any light snow accumulations will be across our Bluegrass region.
Confidence remains somewhat limited until we get more into the hi- res window, but there's some signals worth watching.

With more of a CAA regime on Saturday, look for temps to struggle to get above freezing. Best chance for above freezing, but still in the 30s, will be for south-central KY.

===== Sunday - Tuesday =====

We remain cold for Sunday and into the early next week due to broad upper troughing over the eastern half of the country. However, this time frame should feature a mostly dry stretch. Temps for Sunday morning are expected to drop into the teens, with parts of southern IN possibly dropping into the upper single digits. With NW winds, that could translate to wind chills in the single digits and near zero during Sunday morning.

Highs remain in the 20s for each day into next week, with perhaps the coldest morning lows occurring Tuesday morning. We could end up with most of the region in single digits, with some areas seeing wind chills below zero.

Extended Forecast Discussion...

Moving into the extended forecast period, the teleconnection pattern is expected to be in a -NAO/-AO/-EPO/Neutral PNA pattern. This supports the deep trough axis in the eastern CONUS with strong ridging across the western CONUS. The West Pacific Oscillation (WPO) is forecast to remain negative here as well. This would support a continued colder than normal pattern from the northern Plains east into the Great Lakes and into New England. The MJO has been hanging out in the null phase but is expected to pulse out into phase 6 near the beginning of the period. Typically phase 6 in January is mild, but here we will be in a rather cold period initially. However, the MJO spike into phase 6 may result in a short moderation of temperatures and the emergence of the SE ridge.
While the dynamical models build this ridge, I'm not overly confident that it will grow all that much given the -WPO forecast by the models.

It does seem plausible that some retreat of the colder core of air will take place and locally we'll moderate our temps above freezing.
It seems that we may see the development of a large baroclinic zone from the southern Plains into the Ohio Valley and into the Mid- Atlantic around 1/23-1/24. The dynamical models suggest this, but I expect to see rather poor run-to-run continuity here with how the models handle it. The baroclinic zone will lead us to higher than normal precipitation chances here. In theory, we should have a pretty decent cold dome in place which will probably be hard to scour out initially. However, any southern stream system that develops will have the potential to bring moisture and warmer air into the region. The net result here is that all threats could be on the table here (rain/wintry mess/snow). Signal analysis from early January has been pointing to a period of active weather in the 1/24-1/27 period.

While the MJO is forecast emerge in phase 6 at the beginning of the period, most model forecasts show a strong orbit into phase 7/8 by the end of January and into phase 1/2 by early February. This would be strongly suggestive another bout of cold weather for the eastern US to close out the month and into February.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 847 PM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

Cold front will continue to push through the region this evening and overnight. Some lingering light snow, mainly in the form of flurries but we are seeing CIGs lifting to VFR and expect that to stay there through the forecast period. Any snow will taper off and clouds are expected to linger over RGA and LEX. Winds will remain gusty through the period out of the northwest gusting to 25 and a few isolated 30kts.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...None.
IN...None.