Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Hardinsburg, KY

UPDATE
Issued at 1000 PM EDT Wed Apr 23 2025

Warm front draped along the KY/TN border will continue to support a few stray showers overnight, but should stay south of the Cumberland Parkway. While we have seen boundary interactions fuel enough regeneration near Nashville for a flash flood threat, available moisture over southern Kentucky is lacking. WIll maintain 20-30% chances for rain overnight across south-central Kentucky, which is well in line with the previous forecast.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
Issued at 312 PM EDT Wed Apr 23 2025

An east-west warm front draped along the length of the Commonwealth this afternoon has introduced a slightly more moist atmosphere and light southerly breezes to the southern half of central Kentucky. A cu field has developed and some of these clouds may become tall enough to produce showers, with a few small echoes starting to pop up from middle Tennessee to eastern Kentucky already. There is some mid-level warmth, extremely dry air above 700mb, and deep layer shear is weak. Cells that develop this afternoon and evening will be short-lived and widely spaced. Mesoscale models suggest that isolated shower activity could continue into the nighttime hours, but the great majority of the activity should be diurnally driven and dissipate after sunset.

The pool of chilly air that gave us our cool temperatures this morning has pushed off to the east, so low temperatures tomorrow morning will be several degrees warmer in the 50s.

Tomorrow the entire region will be in the warm sector as tonight's warm front pushes north into IL/IN/OH. This will result in greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon.
Shear, lapse rates, and instability will be unimpressive, and no severe storms are expected. Precipitable water values will be slightly above normal leading to the possibility of some locally heavy downpours, but they would be brief and not pose a flooding threat. High temperatures Thursday will be from the mid 70s to around 80.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 312 PM EDT Wed Apr 23 2025

Stalled sfc boundary will be to our north stretching across the southern Great Lakes back west towards IA and into central KS. A weak sfc low along with a mid-level shortwave over the Central Plains will move along the boundary and into the Great Lakes by Friday evening. As the sfc low works across the Great Lakes during the day Friday, it will drag a cold front through the Mid Mississippi Valley and then through the Ohio Valley late Friday night into early Saturday morning. A strengthening LLJ ahead of this system will surge PWAT values to around 1.50" by Friday afternoon and evening ahead of the approaching boundary. This corresponds with our highest chance of shower and thunderstorm activity during this time. As was mentioned in the previous discussion, increased cloud cover and cooler temperatures will limit the amount of instability Friday afternoon, with heavy rain being the main impact from any showers and thunderstorms. Forecast rainfall amounts continue to range between a half an inch to just around an inch through Saturday morning. Renewed river flooding remains unlikely with the main impacts coming from localized heavy downpours.

As the cold front sweeps through and pushes south and east on Saturday, strong high pressure will build in from the north. While we may have a few lingering showers, mainly to the east and south Saturday morning, the overall weekend forecast looks to be dry.
Clouds and cooler temperatures along with a northerly flow is expected on Saturday as highs will be in the mid/upper 60s across southern IN and northern KY while upper 60s to near 70 will be likely along the KY/TN border. Winds become more easterly by Sunday with more sunshine with temperatures warming into the low 70s.

Sfc high pressure will shift eastward as upper ridging builds in over the region to start the week. Monday looks to remain dry and warmer with highs getting into the upper 70s/low 80s. By Tuesday and Wednesday, another shortwave trough and associated cold front approach from the west will increase our shower/storm chances, especially for Tuesday. Tuesday could be the warmest day of the week as highs warm into the low/mid 80s ahead of the approaching system then into the 70s for Wednesday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 721 PM EDT Wed Apr 23 2025

A weak warm front has sparked a few light showers between BWG and RGA, but the window of opportunity is closing for precip to affect either terminal. Otherwise light E-NE winds with the exception of BWG which has gone to southerly, and mainly cirrus ceilings this evening. Any remaining precip should fizzle and mid-level clouds should dissipate early this evening, leaving behind weak easterly flow and cirrus.

Look for a wind shift to south late Thursday morning as the warm front lifts north again. Mid-level clouds will return as well, and we can't rule out a few showers breaking out in the warm advection regime in the afternoon. Have included a TEMPO in all but HNB for afternoon showers, but confidence is low to medium at best and cig/vis expected to be no worse than high-end MVFR.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...None.
IN...None.