Hardinsburg, KY Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Hardinsburg, KY

June 13, 2024 7:31 AM EDT (11:31 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:19 AM   Sunset 9:08 PM
Moonrise 12:13 PM   Moonset 12:44 AM 
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hardinsburg, KY
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Area Discussion for - Louisville, KY
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FXUS63 KLMK 131059 AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 659 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Updated Aviation Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

* Above normal temperatures expected Sunday into next week. Rain chances return early next week as southerly flow draws moisture northward from the Gulf.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 317 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Currently, the skies over southern Indiana and central Kentucky are clear, and with high pressure over the region, this trend will continue through the rest of the day. This morning, after the few dry days, most areas should be dry enough to remain fog free this morning, but the light winds and clear skies could cause enough radiative cooling for a few valleys to see some patchy light fog, mainly across southern Kentucky.

Later today, with the surface high pressure centered to our southeast, a mostly south to southwest 5-10 mph wind will remain over the Lower Ohio Valley. This will help the abundant amount of sunshine lift high temperatures into the mid to upper 80s for most across the region.

Tonight will begin with clear skies, easing winds, and cooling temperatures, but ahead of an approaching cold front, expect a layer of mid-level clouds to work in from the northwest over southern Indiana after midnight. This will bring some light dissipating showers that could make it just south of the river before coming to an end. With a decent dry layer below 700mb, any precipitation will be light with limited accumulations, a few hundredths to an isolated tenth of an inch. Expecting lows to only drop into the mid to upper 60s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 317 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Friday through Sunday Night...

Surface cold front is still progged to push through the region during the day on Friday. Weak convergence along that front may spark isolated to scattered convection across the region Friday afternoon. Not everyone will see rainfall in this scenario however.
Model soundings do show some MLCAPE and weak shear across the region and DCAPE values from the CAMs are still pretty decent, so any storm that goes up could produce gusty winds. Expect convection to fade by sunset with cool advection coming into the region. Highs Friday will generally be in the upper 80s with overnight lows cooling back into the low-mid 60s. A few spots across southern IN and in the valleys could drop into the upper 50s Saturday morning.

For Saturday and Sunday, dry conditions are expected as high pressure at the surface and aloft build into the region. Cooler temperatures are expected for Saturday with lower humidity values.
Will need to watch temps Saturday as there are large differences in the GFS and Euro guidance. The GFS is attempting to hold some cloud cover in across the region behind the front. If this were to occur, highs on Saturday may be as low as the upper 70s to the lower 80s.
On the other hand, the Euro is quite a bit warmer suggesting upper 80s and lower 90s. Will go slightly below NBM here and go lower 80s in the Bluegrass/eastern sections with 85-90 in areas west of I-65.
Lows Saturday night will be in the 60-65 degree range. Sunny and warm temperatures are expected for Sunday. Just how warm we get is still to be determined. While thickness progs would suggest at least 10-13 degrees of additional warmth compared to Saturday, we will still will not have much in the way of humidity just yet and we're still very green from all the May rains, but things are starting to dry out across the region. For now will go with temps in the upper 80s to the lower 90s. Lows Sunday night will be in the upper 60s to the lower 70s.

Monday through Wednesday...

Heading into the new work week, the general consensus of the model guidance shows a fairly strong ridge over the eastern US with a large trough axis over the western US. Some differences continue to show up in the placement of the ridge axis on Monday with the Euro continuing to be a little further west than the GFS/GEM. Still looking at two different scenarios that could occur next week. In the first scenario, the GFS/GEM solutions argue for a ridge axis centered further east over the Mid-Atlantic with a plume of Gulf moisture coming up the MS Valley into the Ohio Valley. Daytime heating with that moisture would lead to diurnally driven convection each afternoon with coverage in the 20-30% range. In the second scenario, the Euro has a much stronger ridge across the eastern/southeastern US and attempts to drive heights up near death ridge levels. With the lack of convection in the Euro, the model simply bakes the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys with excessive heat.

Trying to determine which scenario will win out remains tough.
Taking into account the ensemble data, the ensembles suggest that the GEM/GFS solution looks a bit more likely here with just isolated- scattered convection firing in the afternoon. The Euro had a bad habit last summer of overdoing heat ridges with it's excessive heat not verifying all that well. So for now, will go on the cooler end of the guidance here and keep temps in the lower 90s in the Monday- Wednesday period. The typical heat islands will likely end up being warmer with some mid 90s being possible.

Storms that do fire Monday-Wednesday afternoon look to be of the pulse variety which could produce locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds and plenty of cloud to ground lightning.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 658 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Today, high pressure is expected to keep skies clear which will help lift temperatures as southerly winds increase to around 5-8 knots.

Towards the end of the period, a cold front will push a line of dissipating showers south into southern Indiana and far north central Kentucky. This could bring some light rain to HNB and/or SDF, but believe VFR conditions will remain through the end of the forecast period.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...None.
IN...None.




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