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FXUS61 KRNK 081820 AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 120 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

SYNOPSIS
Surface high pressure will influence our weather through much of Saturday before the next weather-maker arrives.
Milder temperatures continue through Saturday. A strong cold front will approach from the west Saturday night and move across the area Sunday, triggering widespread moderate rainfall, and cooler weather Sunday night into Monday, along with snow showers in the mountains.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 1213 PM EST Friday...

Key Message:

- Staying mild with increasing clouds and a few mountain showers Saturday afternoon.

Should be a fairly quiet evening into Saturday morning. A shortwave over the southeast U.S. will shear out over the NC coast tonight but will send mid and high clouds our way at times. A weak surface trough also works across the mountains late tonight through Saturday. Models overall seem to have low chance pops in the mountains of WV/SW VA into NC so overalls have dry weather for most, and if it rains, will not amount to much. With clouds tonight and increasing warm advection, lows will be held up the mid 30s to lower 40s for most.

Saturday despite the cloud cover, highs will 10-15 degrees above normal in the 60s, with some 50s in the higher terrain.

Forecast confidence is above average, except on the chance of showers Saturday, which confidence is average.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 120 PM EST Friday...

Confidence is high for rain on Sunday, then mountain snow showers and gusty winds follow for Sunday night into Monday.

A deep upper level trough over the Plains should move eastward on Saturday night, which will push a cold front toward the Appalachian Mountains. With high pressure offshore, there will be a notable southwest flow to aid in warm air advection and to provide a conveyor belt of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. As a result, rain is expected on Sunday with a breezy southwest wind. Amounts will range from one to two inches with the highest totals along the Blue Ridge. A rumble of thunder is not out of the question east of Route 29 on Sunday afternoon.

Temperatures will still reach the mid 50s to mid 60s on Sunday, but they will nosedive by Sunday night as the cold front moves east of the Mid Atlantic. The wind should turn towards the northwest and become gusty into Monday. While downsloping will dry out the Piedmont, upslope snow showers or flurries should take place west of the Blue Ridge. Snowfall accumulations of one to three inches may occur in western Greenbrier County with lower amounts anticipated elsewhere. The wind and snow showers should fade by Monday night as high pressure arrives.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 120 PM EST Friday...

Confidence is high for dry weather through the remainder of the work week.

After a cold Tuesday morning with temperatures generally in the 20s, the air mass will moderate as the upper level pattern becomes more zonal. While an upper level trough should pass to the north during Tuesday night into Wednesday, strong surface high pressure will keep conditions dry across the Mid Atlantic.
The models continue to show good overall agreement with holding high pressure in place through the end of the work week.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 1215 PM EST Friday...

VFR conditions all terminals with passing cirrus tonight then some increase in mid clouds toward 18z in the mountains.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

Key Messages:

1. VFR Saturday afternoon.

2. Worsening flight conditions in showers with increasing gusts Saturday night through Monday morning.

3. Possible TSRA for LYH and DAN Sunday afternoon.

4. -SHSN possible Sunday night into Monday for the mountains, maybe as far east as LYH-DAN.

Clouds will increase and lower Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning as a cold front begins to cross the area, bringing widespread rain and MVFR to LIFR ceilings for late Saturday through Monday morning. Sunday morning through Monday morning, SHRA are expected, lowering ceilings and visibilities further.
+TSRA will be possible, but not likely, for LYH and DAN Sunday afternoon. Fog may obscure some of the ridges Saturday night into Sunday before winds begin to increase Sunday night through Monday.

Snow showers/flurries will likely impact BLF/LWB Sunday night into Monday, with flurries possible as far east as the LYH-DAN corridor. Winds begin to increase and become southerly beginning Sunday morning, and then southwesterly Sunday afternoon and evening with gusts between 20-25 kts at TAF sites, and stronger winds aloft. West to NW winds develop behind a frontal passage around 11/00Z Sunday night into Monday, with winds gusting to 25-30 kts at TAF sites, and stronger winds aloft.

Should see a turn to VFR Monday afternoon east of the mountains and by late Monday night in the mountains.

RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

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