Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Union, WV
May 6, 2024 9:20 PM EDT (01:20 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:19 AM Sunset 8:17 PM Moonrise 4:16 AM Moonset 5:54 PM |
Area Discussion for - Blacksburg, VA
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FXUS61 KRNK 062155 AFDRNK
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 555 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024
SYNOPSIS
The weather pattern will remain unsettled for much of the week with a daily threat of afternoon and evening thunderstorms.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 545 PM EDT Monday...
Key Messages:
1. Scattered showers and thunderstorms through this evening.
Some may bring locally heavy rainfall.
2. Showers and thunderstorms again Tuesday afternoon and evening, with potential to be severe.
Keeping close to latest HRRR which has better handle on meso situation. Should be a lull in activity in the southwest through early evening so have cancelled the flood watch. A few more showers, possible storms expected toward 10pm-midnight but thinking is flash flood threat is too isolated/spotty at best to have a watch. Only a few locations received over 2 inches of rain.
Previous discussion...
A mid level shortwave crosses the area late tonight, as a low surface tracks along a boundary oriented roughly northeast to southwest across the Ohio Valley. Showers and thunderstorms are already developing in west along and west of the Blue Ridge today. Expect coverage to increase through this afternoon and evening, as the shortwave approaches and as instability over the area increases with daytime heating. Precipitable water on this morning's sounding was 1.15 inches, which is above the 90th percentile relative to climatology for today. Forecast soundings for this evening show an increase in PWATs, anywhere from 1.25 inches to 1.55 inches, depending on the high res model. Thus, there is strong potential for locally heavy rainfall with any of the storms today, which could lead to flash flooding, especially in urban and low lying areas. Coverage of storms will decrease after sunset with the loss of solar heating, and any lingering showers should dissipate by midnight.
Weak mid and upper level ridging builds into the area briefly tomorrow, and the warm front lifts northward into the lower Great Lakes. Another shortwave will move through the upper Midwest ahead of a deep upper low over the northern Plains Tuesday, which will trigger some showers and thunderstorms over the Mid Atlantic and Ohio Valley again later in the day. While the ridging aloft will help to suppress a widespread severe threat, less cloud cover tomorrow will result in more instability, and deep layer shear will be sufficient enough to support more organized convection, with a marginal threat for damaging wind and severe hail. The stronger storms look to be mainly west of the mountains on Tuesday, closer to the better dynamics, and where terrain can add an additional source of lift.
Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 70s in the west and around 80 in the east. Tuesday will be a few degrees warmer.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
As of 130 PM EDT Monday...
Key Messages:
- Increasing flash flood threat - Periods of numerous showers and thunderstorms
Short range starts with south west flow between large upper low over the Northern Plains and upper ridging over the western Atlantic. Then by Thursday a long wave troughing digs over the eastern United States. The upper trough axis moves the coast for Sunday and Monday.
At the surface the main cold front will cross the area Thursday.
Temperatures remain above normal ahead of the front, especially overnight. Precipitable water values remain just above two standard deviations above normal ahead of the front through Thursday as forecast by the North American Ensemble. Plus multiple days of numerous thunderstorms will steadily saturate the soil leading to a higher probability of flooding by Thursday.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 130 PM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
- Temperatures cool off - Daily threat of thunderstorms continues
Overall synoptic scale pattern during this time frame features broad troughing in the eastern United States and lower 5000 mb heights. No particular focus to aid in development of precipitation but region remains cooler than earlier in the week, but warm enough for a daily chance of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. For now, enough of a break from the deep moisture to the forecast for Monday dry.
AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 550 PM EDT Monday...
Showers/few storms may impact BLF/LWB/BCB in the 03z-06z time frame but overall coverage tonight into Tuesday will be limited.
Fog and low stratus appears to become more of an issue overnight. IFR to LIFR or lower is likely in places where it rained and where any breaks in the cloud cover occur which could be almost any site. Will lean toward MVFR/IFR east and lower in the west.
Any fog will likely erode by 14z. Ceilings will be variable through at least midday Tuesday, but improve to VFR for much of the area by Tuesday afternoon.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected again Tuesday afternoon, but coverage looks too limited to have in the tafs.
Forecast confidence is average.
Extended Aviation Outlook...
Unsettled weather is expected for much of the week. Daily threat of SHRA/TSRA through Friday. This will bring periods of MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities at times. Winds through Wednesday will favor a SW direction and may be gusty at times.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 555 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024
SYNOPSIS
The weather pattern will remain unsettled for much of the week with a daily threat of afternoon and evening thunderstorms.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 545 PM EDT Monday...
Key Messages:
1. Scattered showers and thunderstorms through this evening.
Some may bring locally heavy rainfall.
2. Showers and thunderstorms again Tuesday afternoon and evening, with potential to be severe.
Keeping close to latest HRRR which has better handle on meso situation. Should be a lull in activity in the southwest through early evening so have cancelled the flood watch. A few more showers, possible storms expected toward 10pm-midnight but thinking is flash flood threat is too isolated/spotty at best to have a watch. Only a few locations received over 2 inches of rain.
Previous discussion...
A mid level shortwave crosses the area late tonight, as a low surface tracks along a boundary oriented roughly northeast to southwest across the Ohio Valley. Showers and thunderstorms are already developing in west along and west of the Blue Ridge today. Expect coverage to increase through this afternoon and evening, as the shortwave approaches and as instability over the area increases with daytime heating. Precipitable water on this morning's sounding was 1.15 inches, which is above the 90th percentile relative to climatology for today. Forecast soundings for this evening show an increase in PWATs, anywhere from 1.25 inches to 1.55 inches, depending on the high res model. Thus, there is strong potential for locally heavy rainfall with any of the storms today, which could lead to flash flooding, especially in urban and low lying areas. Coverage of storms will decrease after sunset with the loss of solar heating, and any lingering showers should dissipate by midnight.
Weak mid and upper level ridging builds into the area briefly tomorrow, and the warm front lifts northward into the lower Great Lakes. Another shortwave will move through the upper Midwest ahead of a deep upper low over the northern Plains Tuesday, which will trigger some showers and thunderstorms over the Mid Atlantic and Ohio Valley again later in the day. While the ridging aloft will help to suppress a widespread severe threat, less cloud cover tomorrow will result in more instability, and deep layer shear will be sufficient enough to support more organized convection, with a marginal threat for damaging wind and severe hail. The stronger storms look to be mainly west of the mountains on Tuesday, closer to the better dynamics, and where terrain can add an additional source of lift.
Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 70s in the west and around 80 in the east. Tuesday will be a few degrees warmer.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
As of 130 PM EDT Monday...
Key Messages:
- Increasing flash flood threat - Periods of numerous showers and thunderstorms
Short range starts with south west flow between large upper low over the Northern Plains and upper ridging over the western Atlantic. Then by Thursday a long wave troughing digs over the eastern United States. The upper trough axis moves the coast for Sunday and Monday.
At the surface the main cold front will cross the area Thursday.
Temperatures remain above normal ahead of the front, especially overnight. Precipitable water values remain just above two standard deviations above normal ahead of the front through Thursday as forecast by the North American Ensemble. Plus multiple days of numerous thunderstorms will steadily saturate the soil leading to a higher probability of flooding by Thursday.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 130 PM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
- Temperatures cool off - Daily threat of thunderstorms continues
Overall synoptic scale pattern during this time frame features broad troughing in the eastern United States and lower 5000 mb heights. No particular focus to aid in development of precipitation but region remains cooler than earlier in the week, but warm enough for a daily chance of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. For now, enough of a break from the deep moisture to the forecast for Monday dry.
AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 550 PM EDT Monday...
Showers/few storms may impact BLF/LWB/BCB in the 03z-06z time frame but overall coverage tonight into Tuesday will be limited.
Fog and low stratus appears to become more of an issue overnight. IFR to LIFR or lower is likely in places where it rained and where any breaks in the cloud cover occur which could be almost any site. Will lean toward MVFR/IFR east and lower in the west.
Any fog will likely erode by 14z. Ceilings will be variable through at least midday Tuesday, but improve to VFR for much of the area by Tuesday afternoon.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected again Tuesday afternoon, but coverage looks too limited to have in the tafs.
Forecast confidence is average.
Extended Aviation Outlook...
Unsettled weather is expected for much of the week. Daily threat of SHRA/TSRA through Friday. This will bring periods of MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities at times. Winds through Wednesday will favor a SW direction and may be gusty at times.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KLWB GREENBRIER VALLEY,WV | 17 sm | 5 min | calm | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 63°F | 61°F | 94% | 29.97 |
Blacksburg, VA,
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