Marine Weather and Tides
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|Sunrise 6:33AM||Sunset 8:20PM||Monday August 10, 2020 2:14 PM EDT (18:14 UTC)||Moonrise 11:11PM||Moonset 12:02PM||Illumination 58%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Union, WVHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Blacksburg, VA  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS61 KRNK 101807 AFDRNK
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 207 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2020
SYNOPSIS. Weak high pressure slides out of the region today with just a few afternoon and evening isolated showers and storms. Shower and storm chances increase as we head into midweek as a surface trough of low pressure drifts in from the Ohio River Valley. The surface trough will merge with a stalled front to our north and west and an upper level trough swinging in from the Great Lakes to keep precipitation chances on the high side through late week. Temperatures will remain at or slightly above average through the period.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/. As of 200 PM EDT Monday .
Scattered showers and thunderstorms have formed along and east of the Blue Ridge, and satellite imagery indicated the more vigorous Cu development is east of the Ridge, though much more vigorous convection continues to slide along the lazy frontal boundary just off to our west. Expect there should be enough surface based instability with support from weak short wave energy aloft to keep showers/thunder going mainly along/east of the Ridge, with a few orographically forced cells in the mountains, before dissipating this evening.
The diffuse frontal boundary will slowly be creeping in our direction as low amplitude northern stream energy moves into the upper midwest. This will allow upstream remnants/debris from upstream convective activity to keep a chance for precipitation going overnight, especially in the mountains west of the Blue Ridge. This may also affect timing of convective potential for Tuesday as it appears that early showers/thunder may limit redevelopment primarily to locations east of the Ridge. Confidence in location/timing is not high so structure of POPs may have to be reevaluated as new meso guidance becomes available.
Temperatures will remain mild with lows tonight generally in the 60s and highs tomorrow around 90 east, 80s west.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/. As of 200 PM EDT Monday .
A weak and chaotic upper atmospheric pattern will prevail over the region during the next several days. This pattern will feature a broad diffuse upper trough covering much of the eastern U.S. with a broad upper ridge anchored in the southwest to south central U.S. The weak northwest flow will keep weather conditions across the eastern U.S. increasingly unsettled during the later half of the week. Meanwhile, a weak cold front will move across the Ohio River Valley and stall across the southern part of the CWA by Wednesday. This front will linger and gradually dissipate through the later half of the week as the trough aloft persists. PWATS, which had dropped below one inch today, will increase to tropical levels by Wednesday. This pattern will lead to a marked increase in diurnal showers and thunderstorms, especially by Wednesday but even to some extent on Tuesday. Convection ramps up in coverage and intensity through the later half of the week. However, the main concern will be heavy rainfall and an increased threat for localized flooding. Very weak steering currents aloft, generally less than 10kts, and high PWATS will lead to efficient and very slow moving showers and thunderstorms, thus the increased threat for localized flooding. The overall pattern is weak with convection largely diurnally and thermodynamically driven, so severe thunderstorms will be isolated and generally any severe weather will be locally damaging downburst winds.
Otherwise, the temperatures will remain warm and near to just a a degree or two above normal for max temperatures, but perhaps average as much as 5 degrees above normal for minimum temperatures. High humidity levels will result in warm and muggy nights all week. Look for highs mostly in the upper 70s to lower 80s west to the mid and upper 80s east, with a few lower 90s, mainly in the Piedmont. Low temperatures will be mostly in the upper 60s to lower 70s, except mid 60s in the western mountains.
/Confidence in Forecast Parameters/ Temperatures - High, Precipitation Probabilities - Moderate to High, Winds - Low, Thunderstorm Probabilities - High.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. As of 200 PM EDT Monday .
The pattern established during the first half of the week will continue into at least Saturday and likely much of the weekend. At this point, Thursday and Friday appear to be the days which offer the most widespread coverage of showers and thunderstorms and the threat for heavy rainfall and isolated severe as the upper trough axis shifts from the OH/TN Valley more into the Mid-Atlantic region. With any luck, a deepening upper trough across the Great Lakes by the weekend will push a new cold front into the area and attempt to push the very warm/humid air further south, but odds of this occurring appear low at this point, so just plan on more of the same day-to-day summerlike weather for now. Showers and thunderstorms likely each day with locally heavy rainfall, localized flooding, and isolated severe.
The cloud cover and precipitation will hold daytime temperatures mostly in the upper 70s to mid 80s, but low temperatures will continue to remain warm and muggy with lows mostly mid 60s to lower 70s.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. As of 200 PM EDT Monday .
Expect showers/thunderstorms will be most prevalent this afternoon into this evening from KROA eastward, including KLYH and KDAN. However, due to the scattered nature of the convection will go with VCTS and amend when radar trends can provide more certainty for prevailing conditions or tempo groups.
Anticipate there will be some lingering showers wafting around tonight, followed by some convective remnants approaching from the west late tonight/toward daybreak. However, there will be a window ahead of this to allow for formation of IFR conditions in fog/stratus. Expect a lull in the action mid/late morning as the atmosphere transitions from nocturnal convection before storms start to form once again toward the end of the valid period.
Winds will generally be light though stronger/variable gusts can be expected near thunderstorms.
Extended Aviation Discussion .
From Wednesday and into late week expect diurnally driven shower and storm chances to continue as a front stalls across the area. Sub-VFR conditions for brief periods mostly in the 17Z- 02Z time frame and then again in late night/early morning fairly widespread dense fog 08Z-12Z daily. Winds will be light through most of the period.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. VA . None. NC . None. WV . None.
SYNOPSIS . mbS NEAR TERM . mbS SHORT TERM . RAB LONG TERM . RAB AVIATION . mbS
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|Lewisburg / Greenbrier, WV||18 mi||19 min||N 0||10.00 mi||Clear||82°F||60°F||48%||1021.7 hPa|
Link to 5 minute data for KLWB
Wind History from LWB (wind in knots)
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|2 days ago||NW||NW||NW||Calm||NW||NW||NW||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||W |
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Wind Forecast for Blacksburg, VA (14,3,4,5)(on/off)  Help
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