Marine Weather and Tides
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|Sunrise 6:45AM||Sunset 8:02PM||Sunday August 25, 2019 11:19 AM EDT (15:19 UTC)||Moonrise 12:23AM||Moonset 3:16PM||Illumination 24%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Union, WVHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Blacksburg, VA  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
|Fxus61 krnk 251335|
area forecast discussion
national weather service blacksburg va
935 am edt Sun aug 25 2019
High pressure over the northeast united states will remain wedged
down the appalachians through Monday. The wedge will weaken with the
approach of a cold front that will cross through the mid atlantic
region on Wednesday. High pressure will follow for Thursday and
Near term through tonight
As of 935 am edt Sunday...
morning satellite imagery shows that clouds have broken up a
good bit, but are holding tough across southside and in the
mountains. Expect any sunshine we do see early will serve
mainly to generate a robust CU field for the afternoon, so a
mix of Sun and clouds sounds about right for most of the area.
Do not see enough instability to support any showers and low
level moisture seems a bit lacking for any upslope precipitation
so will continue with basically a dry forecast. Temps should be
a few ticks warmer than yesterday.
layer of cooler air was well defined on the 00z rnk sounding under a
strong inversion about 6kft agl. Southeast surface and low level
winds were banking moisture up along the eastern slopes of the
southern appalachians. Mid level clouds covered the rest of southern
virginia and northern north carolina. The upslope weakens this
morning and mid level moisture is forecast to exit to the southeast.
Deeper moisture begins to spread into the region from the
southwest tonight. Surface dew points were in the lower 50s to
lower 60s. Little change in air mass is expected today and
tonight. National blend will be the preferred guidance for highs
today. Will stay at or below met mav guidance for lows tonight.
Short term Monday through Wednesday
As of 330 am edt Sunday...
into Monday, cooler than normal temperatures associated with the
wedge will begin to modify. Models still show shallow moisture and
light showers being advected in on enhanced 925-700 mb east-
northeast flow over the mid-atlantic coast, offering chances for
showers across the piedmont. On the western extent of the wedge, an
elongated shortwave trough across the tennessee valley should
encourage limited chances for showers into the nc mountains into far
southwest va, but better chances for rains are more into the
cumberland plateau in ky tn then into this side of the appalachians
from this feature. By evening, pops then are closer to chance for
showers in these far western southwestern areas as forcing
associated with the trough begins to approach further. Still a
considerable amount of clouds through Monday, with highs in the 70s
and lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s.
Wedge then still looks to weaken in entirety by Tuesday, with 850 mb
temperatures moderating to around +13 to +16c. Appears that there
still will be a considerable extent of clouds given the deamplifying
upper trough will progress across the region. Cloud cover extent
should limit heating enough to only permit weak destabilization,
but enough to offer slight chances for afternoon thunderstorms.
Pops are closer to the 30-50% range Tuesday, though QPF is
pretty limited to a tenth or less. Should see decreasing pops
(sub-15%) by evening as the trough shifts into coastal md va,
though still a good amount of rh still left behind suggesting
that at least partly to mostly cloudy skies should linger into
the nighttime. Late in the evening, a cold front associated with
a powerful upper trough begins to trail into central wv. This
will mainly impact our weather moving into midweek, but will
still have solid chance for showers mainly into our WV counties
and the i-77 corridor.
By Wednesday, a powerful upper trough (with vertically-stacked
surface cyclone) over the upper midwest great lakes digs into the
ohio valley and into the appalachians. Still a generous amount of
clouds to begin Wednesday over our area out ahead of the cold front,|
which should be nearing our far western counties by daybreak per the
00z ECMWF and gfs. Strength of mid- and upper-level diffluence will
help augment background vertical motion, in addition to what should
be at best weakly-to-moderately unstable conditions (mucapes closer
to 1000-1200 j kg) as clouds break by afternoon. Wind fields in the
mid-levels also improve to the 30 to 40 kt range supporting
effective bulk shear values between 25-30 kts. Other than cloud
cover at least delaying destabilization by a few hours, flow is
pretty westerly but this is a more strongly-forced frontal passage.
Showed chance pops, with an area of lower likelies collocated with
the ecmwf's depiction of the front where storms may be the
strongest. At the moment, not envisioning this as a potential active
severe weather day, though a few strong storms isolated severe
storms collocated with the front are possible. If we can destabilize
to a greater extent than presently envisioned, then the severe
weather threat could stand to increase but at the moment that's not
looking like it is in the cards. Certainly Wednesday looks to be
much busier weather-wise than prior days. With 850 mb temps in the
upper teens and after clouds break, highs should return to the upper
70s to mid-upper 80s areawide.
Long term Wednesday night through Saturday
As of 1214 pm edt Saturday...
looks like the front from Wednesday should be able to clear the
forecast area by Wednesday night.
Going to start to see drier conditions Thursday into Friday as high
pressure builds in with temps running close to normal for late
august. 500 mb heights begin to rise Friday into Saturday with temps
warming. Should still be between systems, with high pressure in the
area, but enough heating should build a few storms over the
mountains Sat afternoon.
Confidence is high for trending drier beyond Wednesday night.
Aviation 14z Sunday through Thursday
As of 715 am edt Sunday...
wedge of high pressure will remain locked in east of the
mountains today. This will result in an easterly component to
the winds and maintain low level moisture against the eastern
slopes of the blue ridge. There is band of MVFR clouds along
the blue ridge parkway. East of the mountains ceilings were
generally 6-7kft agl.
Satellite pictures fog in the mountain valleys. Expect ifr or
lower fog at klwb through mid morning. Ceilings over the
mountains will lift back to predominantlyVFR this afternoon.
Models showed ceilings lowering again overnight with ifr to MVFR
conditions across spreading from southwest to northeast after
midnight. Confidence is lower that MVFR ceilings will reach kdan
and klyh before the 12z 8am end of the TAF forecast period.
Confidence was average for ceilings, visibility and wind.
Extended aviation discussion
Some MVFR showers are possible in the southwest virginia and
northwest north carolina on Monday. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms with MVFR conditions are expected Tuesday. On
Wednesday, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
along and ahead of a cold front crossing through the region.
Conditions will beVFR behind the front on Thursday.
Rnk watches warnings advisories
near term... mbs ams
short term... Al
long term... Wp
aviation... AMS pm
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|Lewisburg / Greenbrier, WV||18 mi||44 min||ESE 5||10.00 mi||Mostly Cloudy||65°F||54°F||67%||1024.4 hPa|
Link to 5 minute data for KLWB
Wind History from LWB (wind in knots)
|1 day ago||W||W||SW||W||W||NW||NW||N||N||NW||NW||Calm||Calm||NE||Calm||E||Calm||E||NE||Calm||NE||NE||NE||E|
|2 days ago||SW||NW||NW||W||W||W||W|
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Wind Forecast for Blacksburg, VA (11,2,3,4)(on/off)  Help
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