Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Coal City, WV

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 130 PM Saturday...

Key Point:

* Isolated strong to severe storms possible late this afternoon/evening across SE OH and NW WV.

Southwesterly flow in an expansive warm sector covering most of the east coast has allow surface temperatures to rise in the upper 70s/lower 80s across the lower elevations early this afternoon with an eventual destination in the mid to upper 80s later this afternoon. At this hour, the warm sector remains largely capped due to relatively dry low level conditions, but moisture pooling ahead of a cold front draped over Central Ohio will continue to advect eastward as the front slowly approaches late this afternoon into this evening. This should yield a narrow corridor of MLCAPE 1000- 1500J/kg with minimal capping across SE OH into NW WV heading into the late afternoon/evening hours amid strong deep layer and near surface kinematic fields supportive of both updraft/downdraft separation and storm rotation. Think storms will remain pretty well rooted to this ribbon of enhanced moisture given storm motions that roughly parallel it and increasingly hostile conditions for sustaining storms away from the enhanced pool of surface moisture.
Storm mode should begin as isolated supercells, but given storm motions and increasing westerly flow this evening this could turn into more of a broken line with embedded super-cellular structures.
The primary threat will be damaging wind gusts and marginally severe hail. Fairly wide surface dew point depressions should limit the overall meso-cyclonic tornado risk, although it will not be zero, with storm scale interaction or a brief window as the LLJ begins to strengthen before storms become rooted aloft this evening.

Any lingering activity becomes increasingly sparse overnight before completely dissipating early Sunday morning.

A nebulous frontal zone is expected to be draped across our area by Sunday morning. Guidance has come into a little better alignment positioning this feature across our far south around daybreak, and slowly starting to lift back to the north late morning into the afternoon as southerly flow begins to increase ahead of the next system slated for Monday. As far as sensible weather impacts, they will be relatively minimal - perhaps a few showers near the mountains and a decent gradient in afternoon highs depending on how far it makes it back to the north before daytime heating fades.
Central guidance generally takes it just north of the Metro Valley by Sunday afternoon with highs in the lower to mid 80s south of the boundary and mid to upper 70s north of it - around 10 to 15 degrees above normal values for late April.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 155 PM Saturday...

Generally dry but mild conditions can be expected Sunday night with a southerly wind flow in advance of an approaching cold front. The cold front will push through on Monday into Monday night, providing a band of showers and thunderstorms. The front should be south of the area by Tuesday morning, but depending on how far south the front pushes, some showers could linger over southern and eastern West Virginia and southwestern Virginia.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 1205 PM Saturday...

A cold front should be located south of the area by Tuesday morning. Models do vary on how far south the front pushes, and hence, if enough moisture remains over southern and eastern West Virginia and southwest Virginia for some showers to develop on Tuesday and Wednesday. The moisture will eventually return northward later in the work week as a southerly flow develops.
There are some timing differences between the models with this moisture return but this will allow for chances of precipitation throughout the area either Thursday or Friday.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 130 PM Saturday...

Much of the region remains in an expansive warm sector through late this afternoon with mainly scattered to broken mid level clouds beneath thin broken high clouds. A cold front bisecting Ohio will continue to slowly approach late this afternoon into this evening.
Thunderstorms are expected to sprout out of an enhanced pool of low level moisture in advance of this feature and slowly work across the northern periphery of our forecast area through tonight. This will primarily affect PKB/CKB/EKN with thunderstorms, potentially strong and/or heavy at PKB. Given relatively high confidence here terminals, will cover with a TEMPO with PROB30 at CKB/EKN in this package.

MVFR ceilings are expected to build in from north to south in the wake of cold frontal passage tonight. Couldn't completely rule out some patchy fog if the boundary happens to stall on any given terminal Sunday morning. This would be most likely at CRW or BKW, but given low confidence will not include any fog in this package.

Winds generally southwesterly ahead of cold frontal passage, 8-12KTs with gusts up to around 20, becoming light and northerly behind the front and eventually back to southerly on Sunday as it lifts back to the north as a warm front.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Highly variable conditions are possible in any heavy thunderstorms this evening. Fog may form where the frontal stalls out tonight between CRW and BKW.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
Brief IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms with a cold front on Monday.

RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.