Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Coal City, WV
December 10, 2023 7:24 PM EST (00:24 UTC)
Sunrise 7:27AM Sunset 5:07PM Moonrise 5:03AM Moonset 3:15PM
Area Discussion for - Charleston WV
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FXUS61 KRLX 102354 AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 654 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023
SYNOPSIS
Strong cold front exits to the east, though a wave moves along it today. Upslope flow tonight into Monday. High pressure Monday night/Tuesday. Dry cold front Tuesday night/Wednesday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 615 PM Sunday...
Tweaked POPs a bit using a blend of the latest and greatest model guidance. I pushed POPs out of the area slightly faster than the previous forecast simply using the new guidance and current situational awareness. Noticed that much of the lowlands has stopped precipitating and there is nothing forming around the vicinity to implicate that anymore will occur.
I did lower probabilities as well going into the overnight along the higher terrain around the mountains but kept the northeast mountains the same as we still have that chance of upslope snow through the morning.
Just recently the rain has changed over to snow down near Beckely's area and south, along the higher terrain. Elsewhere, in the lower elevations, temperatures are still a little too high but in the higher elevations and northeast mountains it is safe to say that snow is occurring as their temperatures are cold enough.
As of 230 PM Sunday...
Light to moderate rain continues primarily to the east of the Ohio River as a wave lifts up along a frontal boundary to the east.
Additional moisture is expected to feed into the area as a shortwave trough shifts east overhead late today through tonight. Precipitation chances will erode from the lowlands overnight, with drier conditions expected for Monday as high pressure begins to build in from the southwest. Meanwhile, moisture and upslope flow should allow precipitation to linger into Monday afternoon along the mountains.
Rain will transition to snow as temperatures turn colder this evening into tonight. Once this transition occurs, snow remains the dominant precipitation type until precipitation comes to an end on Monday. Snowfall amounts of 1-3 inches are expected along the mountains, with 4-7 inches possible for the higher elevations (>3000 ft.). Accumulations trail off further to the west, though flurries or a light dusting could spill over into the lowlands.
Reduced visibility is likely within snow showers. Snow could also initially melt and then freeze, potentially creating slick spots on roadways. No significant changes have been made to the already issued Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather Advisory. Both products remain in effect from 7PM today into Monday afternoon.
A tightening pressure gradient is expected to develop as the shortwave approaches from the west. This, and a strong jet moving overhead, should support gusty winds overnight into early Monday. Gusts up to 40 mph are possible for the higher ridges.
Temperatures are expected to bottom out in the 20s to low 30s across the area overnight. Monday remains chilly, with highs projected to be in the upper 30s to low 40s in the lowlands, and 20s to mid 30s along the mountains.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
As of 120 PM Sunday...
Low level warm air advection Monday night will cause clouds to erode as a high pressure system builds into the area. This high will provide dry weather for Tuesday with moderating temperatures.
A moisture starved cold front will then push into the area from the northwest Tuesday night. Models show that moisture in insufficient for precipitation.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 1115 AM Sunday...
A dry cold front will push through Tuesday night into Wednesday. Models still differ on how much cold air will push into the region behind the cold front on Wednesday. GFS remains the warmest while the Canadian is the coldest. The NAM and ECMWF are in between. Will hedge temperatures downward some in the Wednesday through Thursday time frame.
Models do agree that a high pressure system will build over the area for Thursday and Friday.
Models still struggling on whether the northern and southern stream systems will interact with each other or not for the next weekend. ECMWF and Canadian keep the systems separate, which leads to a dry weekend here. The GFS however still phases the systems which creates a strong system that brings precipitation to the area, and then pulls very cold air into the region for the beginning of the next work week. Obviously, confidence is very low in the forecast for next weekend.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 650 PM Sunday...
The rain has pushed east out of the way of our western sites therefore no VIS restrictions are expected for this period. CIGs will bounce a little but stay in the MVFR range through the morning and then will turn VFR by early to mid afternoon. As for our eastern sites, they will endure rain changing over to snow just as BKW has already. VIS restrictions will accompany any shower in the MVFR to IFR range. CIGS at CKB/EKN will lower under showers to near IFR then rise up to MVFR by mid to late morning and will not see VFR until Monday evening. BKW is under LIFR conditons and will see MVFR by late morning and rise to VFR by the late afternoon. Westerly flow will continue to slowly turn out of the northwest and pick up slightly in intensity through the period. Winds will then settle down and eventually become fairly light by Monday evening.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EST 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 CRW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H M H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M H H H L L PKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H M H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Monday for WVZ039-040- 516-518>521-525.
Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST Monday for WVZ522-523-526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 654 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023
SYNOPSIS
Strong cold front exits to the east, though a wave moves along it today. Upslope flow tonight into Monday. High pressure Monday night/Tuesday. Dry cold front Tuesday night/Wednesday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 615 PM Sunday...
Tweaked POPs a bit using a blend of the latest and greatest model guidance. I pushed POPs out of the area slightly faster than the previous forecast simply using the new guidance and current situational awareness. Noticed that much of the lowlands has stopped precipitating and there is nothing forming around the vicinity to implicate that anymore will occur.
I did lower probabilities as well going into the overnight along the higher terrain around the mountains but kept the northeast mountains the same as we still have that chance of upslope snow through the morning.
Just recently the rain has changed over to snow down near Beckely's area and south, along the higher terrain. Elsewhere, in the lower elevations, temperatures are still a little too high but in the higher elevations and northeast mountains it is safe to say that snow is occurring as their temperatures are cold enough.
As of 230 PM Sunday...
Light to moderate rain continues primarily to the east of the Ohio River as a wave lifts up along a frontal boundary to the east.
Additional moisture is expected to feed into the area as a shortwave trough shifts east overhead late today through tonight. Precipitation chances will erode from the lowlands overnight, with drier conditions expected for Monday as high pressure begins to build in from the southwest. Meanwhile, moisture and upslope flow should allow precipitation to linger into Monday afternoon along the mountains.
Rain will transition to snow as temperatures turn colder this evening into tonight. Once this transition occurs, snow remains the dominant precipitation type until precipitation comes to an end on Monday. Snowfall amounts of 1-3 inches are expected along the mountains, with 4-7 inches possible for the higher elevations (>3000 ft.). Accumulations trail off further to the west, though flurries or a light dusting could spill over into the lowlands.
Reduced visibility is likely within snow showers. Snow could also initially melt and then freeze, potentially creating slick spots on roadways. No significant changes have been made to the already issued Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather Advisory. Both products remain in effect from 7PM today into Monday afternoon.
A tightening pressure gradient is expected to develop as the shortwave approaches from the west. This, and a strong jet moving overhead, should support gusty winds overnight into early Monday. Gusts up to 40 mph are possible for the higher ridges.
Temperatures are expected to bottom out in the 20s to low 30s across the area overnight. Monday remains chilly, with highs projected to be in the upper 30s to low 40s in the lowlands, and 20s to mid 30s along the mountains.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
As of 120 PM Sunday...
Low level warm air advection Monday night will cause clouds to erode as a high pressure system builds into the area. This high will provide dry weather for Tuesday with moderating temperatures.
A moisture starved cold front will then push into the area from the northwest Tuesday night. Models show that moisture in insufficient for precipitation.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 1115 AM Sunday...
A dry cold front will push through Tuesday night into Wednesday. Models still differ on how much cold air will push into the region behind the cold front on Wednesday. GFS remains the warmest while the Canadian is the coldest. The NAM and ECMWF are in between. Will hedge temperatures downward some in the Wednesday through Thursday time frame.
Models do agree that a high pressure system will build over the area for Thursday and Friday.
Models still struggling on whether the northern and southern stream systems will interact with each other or not for the next weekend. ECMWF and Canadian keep the systems separate, which leads to a dry weekend here. The GFS however still phases the systems which creates a strong system that brings precipitation to the area, and then pulls very cold air into the region for the beginning of the next work week. Obviously, confidence is very low in the forecast for next weekend.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 650 PM Sunday...
The rain has pushed east out of the way of our western sites therefore no VIS restrictions are expected for this period. CIGs will bounce a little but stay in the MVFR range through the morning and then will turn VFR by early to mid afternoon. As for our eastern sites, they will endure rain changing over to snow just as BKW has already. VIS restrictions will accompany any shower in the MVFR to IFR range. CIGS at CKB/EKN will lower under showers to near IFR then rise up to MVFR by mid to late morning and will not see VFR until Monday evening. BKW is under LIFR conditons and will see MVFR by late morning and rise to VFR by the late afternoon. Westerly flow will continue to slowly turn out of the northwest and pick up slightly in intensity through the period. Winds will then settle down and eventually become fairly light by Monday evening.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EST 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 CRW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H M H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M H H H L L PKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H M H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Monday for WVZ039-040- 516-518>521-525.
Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST Monday for WVZ522-523-526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KBKW RALEIGH COUNTY MEMORIAL,WV | 13 sm | 24 min | NNW 11 | 2 sm | Overcast | Lt Snow Mist | 32°F | 30°F | 93% | 29.90 |
| KBLF MERCER COUNTY,WV | 22 sm | 32 min | WNW 07 | 1/2 sm | Overcast | Lt Snow Mist | 32°F | 30°F | 93% | 29.88 |
Wind History from BKW
(wind in knots)
Blacksburg, VA,
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