Sunrise 6:25 AM   Sunset 8:47 PM Moonrise 3:19 PM   Moonset 2:59 AM

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PZZ530 San Pablo Bay, Suisun Bay, The West Delta And The San Francisco Bay North Of The Bay Bridge- 822 Pm Pdt Sat May 18 2024
Tonight - SW wind 10 to 15 kt, easing to 5 to 10 kt late. Waves around 2 ft or less. Sun - SW wind 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft or less. Sun night - SW wind 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft or less. Mon - SW wind 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft or less. Mon night - W wind 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft or less. Tue - W wind 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft or less. Tue night - SW wind 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft or less. Wed - SW wind 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft or less. Wed night - W wind 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft or less. Thu - SW wind 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft or less. Thu night - SW wind 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft or less.

PZZ500 822 Pm Pdt Sat May 18 2024
Synopsis for the central california coast and bays including the Monterey bay - Greater farallones - .and cordell bank national marine sanctuaries - .
high pressure building in from the north will lead to increasing northerly winds over the coastal waters this weekend and early next week. Gale force gusts are likely north of point reyes through at least Monday. Gale force conditions will begin to spread southward over the outer waters later Sunday. Expect hazardous conditions and steeper wind waves from these building winds throughout the week.

FXUS63 KDDC 190334 AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1034 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Updated Aviation/Key Messages

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot temperatures in the 90s and strong south winds are expected Sunday afternoon.

- Scattered thunderstorms are expected Sunday afternoon and evening. Some storms are expected to be severe with large hail and damaging winds.

- The highest risk of straight line wind damage will be east of Dodge City Sunday evening, where gusts of 60-80 mph are probable.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

18Z observations and upper air analysis shows a cold front located from central Kansas to around Liberal which is slowly progressing to the south and east. Winds behind the front have increased to 20-30 mph. A 1006 mb surface low is located in the Texas panhandle in association with an upper level shortwave while mid level winds are generally zonal.

Tonight the main feature of interest is a forecast MCS to develop in northeast Colorado around sunset. Ahead of the storm complex a 700 mb shortwave and surface low will develop and the present cold front will lift back to the north as a warm front which should allow the return of more robust moisture as the winds switch back to the southeast. Through the evening and overnight hours BUFKIT soundings in northwest and northcentral Kansas show the storm will be quite elevated and the main threat would be downburst winds up to 60 mph and as a result there is a marginal risk of severe weather. These storms will likely affect areas along an north of a Syracuse to Hays line through sunrise Sunday morning.

Sunday there should be a brief outflow boundary from the overnight convection which will stabilize the atmosphere through mid morning. Afterwards as the winds turn back to the southeast we will have growing moisture and instability ahead of a developing dryline along the Kansas-Colorado border. Mid level temperatures will be quite warm at 10-11(C) however with forecast highs reaching to the mid 90s around the dryline this should be warm enough to erode any cap we have. A 700 mb shortwave should move into the vicinity of the dryline around 20-21Z and thunderstorm initiation should quickly result around the Kansas/Colorado border. If we do have any supercells they will quickly evolve into a linear squall line within a couple hours. With short term models forecasting 3,000 J/kg or more CAPE these storms will have plenty of energy to work with as the progress eastward. Main threat for severe weather on Sunday will be straight line winds as the 12Z HRRR has hints of wind gusts approaching 75-80 kts once the line gets into the most robust moisture along and east of highway 183. Secondary threat with any squall line could be some brief QLCS spin up tornadoes embedded in the line. Hail threat will be the most with initial storm development and then lessen as the storms become more linear. The bulk of the line should be through by Sunday evening.

Sunday evening as the main line of storms moves into central Kansas HRRR models hint at a secondary line of storms developing on an outflow/frontal boundary along K-96. If there is any instability left after the initial line this could certainly be a possibility. Storms look to fester between K-96 and I-70 through close to sunrise on Monday.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Issued at 205 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Monday medium range ensembles have a large longwave trough in the western CONUS and southwest winds at 700 mb will push a shortwave into western Kansas by 00Z. With how the track of the surface to 850 mb the majority of the rain and storms will be concentrated in northwest and north central Kansas into Nebraska.

Tuesday into Wednesday the longwave trough will be concentrated in the northern plains with a strong cold front moving into Kansas Tuesday. High temperatures on Wednesday will be in the 70s.

A warming trend will return towards the end of the week as highs get into the middle 80s. The more active part of the jet stream looks to be in the northern plains.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
Issued at 1034 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Outside of the influences of any convection, VFR is expected to continue through this TAF period. KDDC radar at 0330z showed strong thunderstorms near the CO/KS line well west of GCK. These storms are expected to track primarily north of GCK/HYS through 12z Sun, so kept any mention out of this set of TAFs. Light east winds will prevail overnight. After 15z Sun, south winds will increase quickly at all airports, gusting 30-35 kts. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to initiate on a dryline near US 83 (GCK-LBL) around 21z Sun, then rapidly spread eastward to impact DDC/HYS through 00z Mon. Using 00z ARW as a guide, only mentioned VCTS/CB for now, with the expectation that TEMPO groups will eventually be required, once the expected squall line is trackable on radar. Some thunderstorms Sunday are expected to be severe, with the primary risk to aviation being outflow wind gusts in excess of 50 kts.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

Seaplane Harbor
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Sat -- 03:28 AM PDT     Moonset
Sat -- 04:19 AM PDT     1.37 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:57 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:50 AM PDT     5.23 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:48 PM PDT     1.30 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:50 PM PDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:15 PM PDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:14 PM PDT     6.67 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Seaplane Harbor, San Francisco Bay, California, Tide feet

Oyster Point 2.8 mi E
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Sat -- 01:41 AM PDT     -1.09 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 03:28 AM PDT     Moonset
Sat -- 04:41 AM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:56 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:42 AM PDT     0.68 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 10:24 AM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 01:39 PM PDT     -0.99 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 03:50 PM PDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:36 PM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:44 PM PDT     0.80 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 08:15 PM PDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:38 PM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Oyster Point 2.8 mi E, South San Francisco Bay, California Current, knots

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