Wilroads Gardens, KS Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Wilroads Gardens, KS

June 18, 2024 3:27 AM CDT (08:27 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:16 AM   Sunset 9:06 PM
Moonrise 5:09 PM   Moonset 2:32 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wilroads Gardens, KS
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Area Discussion for - Dodge City, KS
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FXUS63 KDDC 180724 AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 224 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Severe weather risk this afternoon with large hail, damaging winds, and an isolated tornado possible (mainly landspouts if they occur)

- Flash flooding risk later tonight through Wednesday with 1-3 inches of rain possible.



DISCUSSION
Issued at 209 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

07z observations and upper air analysis shows a large longwave trough over the western CONUS leading to southwest winds aloft in the central plains. At the surface a 983-985 mb low is located from northeast Colorado through north central Nebraska leading to strong surface to 850 mb winds and with the well mixed layer temperatures have only fallen into the upper 70s.

For today as another 700 mb shortwave moves over the Colorado Rockies a surface low will develop and move into northwest Kansas by early this afternoon. As the 500 mb longwave trough moves into the northern plains the leading edge of colder air will track into northwest Kansas by the noon hour. This cold front and upper level wave will set the stage for thunderstorms to develop starting in north central Kansas and then extending south and westward along the front by sunset. With the upper level winds oriented parallel to the front the storms will grow upscale and become linear quickly and there is high confidence the storms will train along the front and start dumping heavy rain roughly along an Elkhart to Hays line. With CAPE values in the 2000-3000 J/kg range and 0-6 km bulk shear values at 30-40 kts and CAMs showing some embedded supercells in the line...hail up to 2 inches in diameter and 60 mph winds are possible. The storms will be high based so tornado risk will be low...however given that a strong surface cold front and lower level shear will be high we can't rule out the possibility of some brief landspouts with the storms.

Tonight through Wednesday the risk will turn more towards the flash flooding. With the cold front likely to become stationary and the upper level winds out of the southwest providing more 700 mb shortwaves to provide lift...we could see a widespread area of rain and storms with little to no movement and training over the same areas through much of Tuesday night into Wednesday. Short term models have some variance north or south of where the frontal boundary will be but there is probabilities (around 20%) of receiving 3 inches or more from the storms and high probabilities (70-80%) of 1-2 inches of rain. The location of the rain will be concentrated between the highway 50 and I-70 corridors. This combined with these areas receiving 3-6 inches of rain earlier in the month and having higher soil moisture...leads to an increased risk of localized flash flooding and a watch is issued for these areas. Wednesday will also be cool with clouds and periodic rain and storms all day that highs could only be in the 70s to around 80.

Rain should end by Thursday as ensemble upper level air patterns have a large high over the southeast US and the upper level trough in the northern plains exiting. This southerly flow in the boundary layer should push the stationary front north as a warm front and take the better lift into the northern plains.
Long term ensembles are hinting at the return of hotter temperatures and NBM forecast output is responding in kind with highs around 100 by early next week.



AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Strong winds will continue through the time period with sustained winds at 20-30 kts and gusts 40 kts or greater at times. By late afternoon a cold front will enter into northwest and north central Kansas and we should see a line of thunderstorms develop starting around HYS at 21Z and then into the GCK and DDC areas around 00Z. These storms could contain gusty winds and downpours from heavy rainfall. VFR flight category for the most part for all terminals however as the cloud cover increases with the storm coverage we could be approaching or be in MVFR flight category between 03-06Z for GCK, HYS, and DDC.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Flood Watch from this evening through Wednesday evening for KSZ030-031-043>046-063>066-077>080.




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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KDDC DODGE CITY RGNL,KS 8 sm35 minS 21G339 smClear77°F68°F74%29.63
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Dodge City, KS,




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