Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Wilroads Gardens, KS

DISCUSSION
Issued at 201 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

Earlier this morning a cold front was moving across western Kansas as the first in a series of upper level waves crossed the Central Plains. North of this cold front this morning, 925 and 850 mb winds ranged from 30-40 knots with strong cold air advection occurring, especially east of highway 83.

For the remainder of the day...Gusty winds and dewpoints at or below zero continue to support critical or near critical fire weather conditions west of Highway 83. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for this area through late day. Latest guidance remains consistent showing the lower humidity values rapidly improving by early this evening as gusty northwest winds diminish. Red Flag Warning criteria is not expected after 6 PM.

Cold temperatures will be the primary concern overnight. Short term models agree on a cold dome of high pressure crossing western Kansas tonight. By Sunday morning, this cold air mass will be centered over Central Oklahoma. A developing southwest to westerly flow across southwest Kansas will help moderate temperatures slightly after midnight. However, southwest Kansas should still see lows bottom out between 10 and 15 degrees before the southwest to west winds develop. Wind chills as low as zero to +5F possible.

Despite a cold start to the day on Sunday, improving downslope flow will lead to a nice warmup across southwest Kansas by early Sunday afternoon. Temperatures at 850mb are forecast to rebound from near zero to -5C at 00z Sunday into the single digits by 21z Sunday as a wedge of warmer air moves in ahead of the next cold front. This warming trend suggests afternoon high temperatures will climb back into the upper 40s to lower 50s before the next cold front arrives late in the day. There is a greater than 60% chance that some locations, mainly southwest of Dodge City, could reach the mid 50s. The most favorable areas for this warmth will be along the Oklahoma border and west of Highway 83.

Our next cold front will cross southwest Kansas Sunday night, ending the late weekend warm up and bringing our next round of colder air. Following the front, a period of light snow will be possible early Monday. Confidence is high (over 70%) that any light snow that does occur will develop very late Sunday night into Monday morning. This snow will occur along an area of developing 850-700mb frontogenesis ahead of an approaching upper level trough. At this time however, confidence is lower (30-50%) regarding the exact snow amount and location of this better forcing for snowfall. Models still disagree on where this frontogenetic band will set up and how much moisture will be available. We will continue to monitor this closely but for now, we are favoring the latest consensus between the WPC and models for the snow band location and trend towards the lower precipitation amounts now expected. Based on this the latest consensus indicates that up to one inch of snow will be possible in the area stretching from near Scott City and Garden City to near Dodge City. Although the most likely scenario is for less than one inch, there is a 25-50% chance for one inch or more to be possible in this snow band, especially north of Garden City.

Looking ahead to the remainder of the work week, a brief warmup is expected Tuesday as this next current shot of cold air moves east and what snow that does occur melts. Northwest flow will continue aloft through the end of the work week as the upper ridge axis, located near or just west of the British Columbia coast, remains nearly stationary. Several disturbances will rotate around this upper ridge and dive south into the Plains mid to late week. As the next upper trough crosses the Plains midweek, another surge of cold air will aim for western Kansas.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 515 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

Winds will diminish after 00Z to 5-10 kts and then increase after 12Z starting at 2,000 ft to 45 kts as a low level jet develops and then extending to the surface with better mixing through the mid to late morning hours. After 15Z-00Z sustained winds will be 12-22 kts with higher gusts at times. VFR flight category for all terminals during the time period.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CST /6 PM MST/ this evening for KSZ061-062-074>076-084>086.