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FXUS63 KDDC 100531 AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1131 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

Updated Aviation Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- There is increasing confidence for rain development across portions of southwest Kansas late Wednesday into early Thursday.

- A warming trend is expected into early next week with well above normal temperatures Monday afternoon.



SHORT TERM
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 203 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

WV imagery indicates a broad scale upper level trough of low pressure transitioning eastward through the Upper Midwest and Central Plains.
Near the surface, high pressure is sliding southeast across the Colorado Rockies.

Dry/tranquil conditions are forecast tonight into Sunday as a broad scale upper level trough pushes farther east out of the Central Plains, giving way to a northwesterly flow aloft across the high plains of western Kansas. Meanwhile, a more westerly downslope flow developing across the Western High Plains as a surface high in Colorado shifts into west Texas, will help reinforce a much drier air mass throughout the region. Fairly seasonal temperatures are expected tonight with very little change to the prevailing air mass across western Kansas. Under clearing skies with lighter winds during the later overnight hours, look for lows dropping down into the teens(F)
in west central Kansas to the lower 20s(F) in south central Kansas.
Above normal temperatures are forecast Sunday as a developing lee side trough brings about a southwesterly downslope flow to western Kansas, pushing H85 temperatures well above 0C in central Kansas to near 5C closer to the Oklahoma border in southwest Kansas. Look for afternoon highs generally up into the lower/mid 50s(F).

LONG TERM
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 203 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

A prevailing drier pattern through Tuesday night gives way to increasing confidence of elevating precip chances (40-60%) Wednesday into Wednesday night as medium range ensembles indicate an upper level trough dipping southeast out of the Pacific Northwest into the Four Corners Region, setting up an increasingly difluent southwest flow aloft across the Western High Plains. As the system approaches, broad surface high pressure sliding southeast through the Upper Midwest into Upper Ohio River Valley will bring about an east- southeasterly upslope flow, supplying increased moisture transport into the Texas Panhandle, western Oklahoma, and southern Kansas.
Favorable support aloft combined with increased lift will support rain development (based on temperatures) by late Wednesday/early Thursday as suggested by the NBM 4.1 showing the best chance for rainfall closer to the Oklahoma border with a 40-60% probability of 12-hr QPF exceeding 0.1 of an inch by Thursday morning. The GEFS 31-Ensemble Members indicate a 60-80% probability of precipitation exceeding 0.1 of an inch across much of southwest Kansas.

A prevailing warming trend continues into Monday as warmer air spreading into western Kansas within a downslope flow pushes H85 temperatures up around 5C in central Kansas to near 10C in far southwest Kansas. Under enough sunshine, look for afternoon highs well up into the mid/upper 50s(F) to near 60F. A drop in temperatures to more seasonal levels are then forecast into the middle part of the week with increased cloud cover and elevating precip chances.

AVIATION
(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1125 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

Northwest winds at less than 10 knots at 05z Sunday will back to the southwest by early Sunday morning as a surface ridge axis crosses western Kansas. The southwest winds will then increase into the 15 to 20 knot range by 18z Sunday as surface pressure falls across eastern Colorado and stronger winds in the 900mb to 850mb level mixes down to the surface.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DDC 19 51 26 58 / 0 0 0 0 GCK 18 50 26 57 / 0 0 0 0 EHA 20 53 27 58 / 0 0 0 0 LBL 17 52 26 58 / 0 0 0 0 HYS 17 51 25 57 / 0 0 0 0 P28 22 52 28 58 / 0 0 0 0

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.

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