Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Wilroads Gardens, KS
May 31, 2024 8:55 PM CDT (01:55 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:18 AM Sunset 8:57 PM Moonrise 1:45 AM Moonset 1:35 PM |
Area Discussion for - Dodge City, KS
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FXUS63 KDDC 312227 AFDDDC
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 527 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Several more opportunities of rain in the forecast from tonight through Monday morning
- Highest severe risk looks to be Saturday with downburst winds being the main threat
- High confidence in 90 degree temperatures in southwest Kansas early next week
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024
18z observation show residual cloud cover from last nights storms and a passing shortwave in central and southwest Kansas keeping temperatures down across the region. In the upper levels a shortwave moving over the Colorado rockies is developing and thunderstorms are starting to form along the I-25 corridor.
For tonight storms are expected to develop from the Denver metro south to near Trinidad through the afternoon and approach southwest Kansas between 00-02Z. CAPE values at this time are forecast to be around 750-1000 J/kg and bulk shear will be in the 40 kt range so marginal severe storms are possible with hail up to quarters and gusty winds mainly from the Colorado border to US 83. Highest rainfall amounts will also be in these areas as we could see 0.25-0.75 inches of rain in the stronger storms.
Storms should progress eastward after midnight and become more isolated to widely scattered before ending by sunrise.
Saturday we will start out with residual cloud cover in the east and sunshine in the west. By mid to late morning short term models are showing an upper level shortwave in southwest Kansas and HRRR/RAP models both have a line of convection breaking out around 18Z along the US283 corridor. Storms will most likely have an low CAPE in the lower levels and around 1500 J/kg CAPE in the mid to upper levels and 40 kts bulk shear. These initial storms could have the threat of hail to golf ball size and wind gusts to 60 mph. Storms should quickly move into central Kansas by late afternoon.
Saturday night another 700 mb shortwave should develop thunderstorms in eastern Colorado and enter western Kansas by around 03Z. If this area isn't affected by the afternoon convection we should have enough CAPE and shear that severe storms with quarter hail and winds over 60 mph are possible. As the storms move further east the HRRR has the complex evolving into a long squall line moving through much of western Kansas during the overnight hours spreading widespread rainfall and downburst potential through 08Z. Depending on how much instability we have remaining from the afternoon convection will largely determine the severe threat for the overnight storms.
SPC has the whole area under a slight risk mainly for wind gusts and this is certainly the case Saturday night.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024
Ensembles show the upper level pattern in the long term staying mainly zonal through next Tuesday and then a large ridge developing for Wednesday and Thursday. Overall it should be mainly quiet with the exception of Sunday where another passing shortwave will develop in northeast Colorado and thunderstorms are expected to move across mainly northwest and north central Kansas. These storms should also drop an outflow boundary/cold front for Monday.
Ensemble clusters for temperatures next week are showing higher confidence of 90 degree temperatures next week with the mean of the ensembles in the lower 90s and some of the outliers in the upper 90 degree range. With the warmer air mass in the desert southwest expanding into the central and southern plains forecasting 850 mb temperatures in the 22-25(C) range and the lack of clouds and storms we have high confidence in this warmer stretch of weather.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 526 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024
Light easterly wind this evening with VFR conditions as the cu field remains around 7kft. Clusters of high plains convection may be coming out of Colorado after about 5z and spreading across west central KS, potential reaching vicinity of GCK/LBL and possible even DDC between 7 and 9z. Low chance for briefly reduced visibility in moderate to heavy rain. HRRR model suggest some risk for LIFR type stratus or fog development near or at KHYS around 10-14 UTC.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 527 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Several more opportunities of rain in the forecast from tonight through Monday morning
- Highest severe risk looks to be Saturday with downburst winds being the main threat
- High confidence in 90 degree temperatures in southwest Kansas early next week
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024
18z observation show residual cloud cover from last nights storms and a passing shortwave in central and southwest Kansas keeping temperatures down across the region. In the upper levels a shortwave moving over the Colorado rockies is developing and thunderstorms are starting to form along the I-25 corridor.
For tonight storms are expected to develop from the Denver metro south to near Trinidad through the afternoon and approach southwest Kansas between 00-02Z. CAPE values at this time are forecast to be around 750-1000 J/kg and bulk shear will be in the 40 kt range so marginal severe storms are possible with hail up to quarters and gusty winds mainly from the Colorado border to US 83. Highest rainfall amounts will also be in these areas as we could see 0.25-0.75 inches of rain in the stronger storms.
Storms should progress eastward after midnight and become more isolated to widely scattered before ending by sunrise.
Saturday we will start out with residual cloud cover in the east and sunshine in the west. By mid to late morning short term models are showing an upper level shortwave in southwest Kansas and HRRR/RAP models both have a line of convection breaking out around 18Z along the US283 corridor. Storms will most likely have an low CAPE in the lower levels and around 1500 J/kg CAPE in the mid to upper levels and 40 kts bulk shear. These initial storms could have the threat of hail to golf ball size and wind gusts to 60 mph. Storms should quickly move into central Kansas by late afternoon.
Saturday night another 700 mb shortwave should develop thunderstorms in eastern Colorado and enter western Kansas by around 03Z. If this area isn't affected by the afternoon convection we should have enough CAPE and shear that severe storms with quarter hail and winds over 60 mph are possible. As the storms move further east the HRRR has the complex evolving into a long squall line moving through much of western Kansas during the overnight hours spreading widespread rainfall and downburst potential through 08Z. Depending on how much instability we have remaining from the afternoon convection will largely determine the severe threat for the overnight storms.
SPC has the whole area under a slight risk mainly for wind gusts and this is certainly the case Saturday night.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024
Ensembles show the upper level pattern in the long term staying mainly zonal through next Tuesday and then a large ridge developing for Wednesday and Thursday. Overall it should be mainly quiet with the exception of Sunday where another passing shortwave will develop in northeast Colorado and thunderstorms are expected to move across mainly northwest and north central Kansas. These storms should also drop an outflow boundary/cold front for Monday.
Ensemble clusters for temperatures next week are showing higher confidence of 90 degree temperatures next week with the mean of the ensembles in the lower 90s and some of the outliers in the upper 90 degree range. With the warmer air mass in the desert southwest expanding into the central and southern plains forecasting 850 mb temperatures in the 22-25(C) range and the lack of clouds and storms we have high confidence in this warmer stretch of weather.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 526 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024
Light easterly wind this evening with VFR conditions as the cu field remains around 7kft. Clusters of high plains convection may be coming out of Colorado after about 5z and spreading across west central KS, potential reaching vicinity of GCK/LBL and possible even DDC between 7 and 9z. Low chance for briefly reduced visibility in moderate to heavy rain. HRRR model suggest some risk for LIFR type stratus or fog development near or at KHYS around 10-14 UTC.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KDDC DODGE CITY RGNL,KS | 8 sm | 19 min | calm | 8 sm | Clear | 70°F | 61°F | 73% | 29.98 |
Dodge City, KS,
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