Montezuma, KS Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Montezuma, KS

June 15, 2024 6:23 AM CDT (11:23 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:16 AM   Sunset 9:05 PM
Moonrise 2:06 PM   Moonset 1:23 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Montezuma, KS
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Area Discussion for - Dodge City, KS
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FXUS63 KDDC 151058 AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 558 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) of severe storms later in the day today with thunderstorm coverage expected to be isolated to widely scattered in nature.

- Windy to very windy today through Monday and perhaps into Tuesday with 25 to 35 mph sustained winds common, especially Sunday and Monday afternoon.

- Increasing precipitation chances Tuesday-Wednesday as the next cold front pushes south into Kansas.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 316 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

The overnight water vapor loop and RAP analysis overlay revealed a mid-tropospheric shortwave trough centered over far eastern Colorado. This small shortwave trough was within a larger scale, broad ridge axis centered across the north central CONUS. A mesoscale convective system (MCS) tied to this disturbance was over far eastern Nebraska into north central Kansas, continuing to move away from our southwest Kansas region.

Several convection-allowing models are showing weak redevelopment of showers/isolated thunderstorms around daybreak or shortly thereafter, seemingly tied to broad, rather weak convergence/deformation of the flow field around 700mb. We pulled back a bit on the morning POPs, limiting them to 20 percent. Not too long after sunrise, south to southwest winds will increase to 20 to 25 mph as the MSLP gradient tightens east of a southwest to northeast oriented leeside trough. Later in the day, there will likely be enough low level convergence along this trough axis to initiate surface-based convection. The remnants of last night's shortwave trough will be around, however jet streak dynamics and very weak thermal advections in the lower troposphere will limit coverage and intensity of thunderstorm activity later in the afternoon, thus the reason the latest SWODY1 outlook from SPC keeps our forecast area in a Marginal (1 of 5) Risk. Since the forecast coverage will be more isolated/widely scattered in nature, there will be enough of a CAPE/Shear combination to support at least a marginal supercell or two capable of large hail, but the probability of any significant severe reports is extremely low.

On Sunday, the larger scale pattern will transition to one of broad southwest flow aloft as a large cyclonically-curved jet enters the Pacific Northwest region. This pattern will favor deep leeside troughing and a tight pressure gradient across much of the Great Plains, including southwest Kansas. The result will be wind, wind, and more wind. Sunday and Monday both are forecast to be windy to very windy with sustained south to southwest winds 20 to 35 mph gusting to 45 mph at times, particularly in the afternoon. Neither of these days will be favored for any thunderstorm activity, so the forecast will remain dry. We will be heating back up again, though, with afternoon highs upper 90s to around 100 across the western half of the forecast area. Dewpoint temperatures will not be that high, so resulting Heat Index values will be at or only slightly above the actual air temperature.

As we head deeper into the week, thunderstorm chances increase by late Tuesday/Tuesday Night as a cold front pushes south into Kansas.
Pretty good model consensus on this front and thunderstorm development along it has resulted in NBM POPs increasing to 30 to 45 percent for the Tuesday Night period. This front will likely stall out near southwest Kansas Wednesday which would keep precipitation chances in the forecast through Wednesday Night.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 553 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

VFR conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites through late afternoon. A few isolated thunderstorms will be possible this evening, potentially affecting the vicinity of KHYS, KDDC, and KGCK. Otherwise, expect widespread VFR conditions to continue through early Sunday. Light southerly winds through mid-morning are expected to turn more southwesterly while increasing 15 to 25 with gusts up to 30kt generally after 15-17Z as a lee side trough of low pressure strengthens in extreme eastern Colorado.
Winds will subside this evening with loss of daytime heating.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.




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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KDDC DODGE CITY RGNL,KS 22 sm31 minSSW 0510 smClear68°F61°F78%29.94
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Dodge City, KS,




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