Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Montezuma, KS
May 19, 2024 7:29 PM CDT (00:29 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:24 AM Sunset 8:48 PM Moonrise 4:17 PM Moonset 3:20 AM |
Area Discussion for - Dodge City, KS
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FXUS63 KDDC 192330 AFDDDC
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 630 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Intense squall line with wind gusts of 60-100 mph potential is on track for this afternoon and evening.
- Residual moisture along with another shortwave could lead to a few stronger storms along the I-70 corridor Monday evening.
- Cooler temperatures mid week.
UPDATE
Issued at 623 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
A well developed line of storm with 60-90 mph winds was in progress from Pawnee county south into Kiowa county and then southwest into Clark county. 0-3 km shear was increase to 30-35 kts as these storms move east. The central and northern part of the line will be more susceptible to QCLS tornadoes in segments that become near normal to the shear vector and where outflow and shear are balanced. However, chances for QLCS tornadoes are low at this point. Farther southwest the line normal shear will be too weak and the outflow will be too far ahead of the storms for QLCS spinups.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024
17Z obs and upper air analysis shows widespread low 60 dewpoints along and ahead of the dryline which is located in the far western Oklahoma panhandle. A cu field is starting to show up on satellite near Clayton, NM which will be monitored over the next couple of hours for storm initiation. CAMs have been consistent with storms forming and intensifying just west of the CO-KS border around 2 pm and quickly expanding and growing linear as they move eastward. HRRR wind gusts have been showing 60-80 kt wind potential at 10m starting near the K-25 corridor and growing eastward through the late afternoon and evening for the rest of southwest Kansas. Storm warnings will most likely reflect this with WEA activation for 80+ mph destructive wind threat. Another threat that will be monitored as the squall line matures east of highway 83 is QLCS tornadoes. 0-3 km bulk shear values are already SW at 35 kts east of highway 281 and are expected to increase with the intensification of the low level jet after 00Z. QLCS tornadoes will be very hard to have lead time on warnings as they are usually quick spin ups and along with the already destructive straight line wind threat regardless if the winds are rotating or straight they will be over 80 mph. The squall line should be out of DDC CWA by 03Z.
Lower confidence of a rogue supercell this evening is still in play mainly in NW Oklahoma around Woodward however this could be as far north as Coldwater-Medicine Lodge. If this happens with the low level jet, the moisture, and instability...this particular feature could have giant hail and supercell tornado potential.
Monday most of the day will be the atmosphere recharging as we should have a weak frontal boundary and southeast winds bringing in the return of some moisture. By the late afternoon and evening a shortwave trough is forecast to develop in northwest to north central Kansas and we could see another round of some strong to severe storms capable of hail and gusty winds.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
Issued at 137 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024
Short long term discussion due to upcoming severe weather event today. Main feature in the medium term model ensembles is a large longwave trough over the western CONUS which will bring a stronger cold front across Kansas Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. Most of the moisture and instability ahead of the front will be in central Kansas and thus the severe weather potential in southwest Kansas looks low. The longwave trough hangs on in the central and northern plains through the late workweek and with the upper level lows more in the northern plains the storm threat will be mostly due to frontal passages in northwest and north central Kansas Friday into Saturday.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 531 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024
Scattered thunderstorms will be possible across the HYS and DDC terminal over the next hour. Otherwise expect decreasing cloudiness overnight. Winds will generally be from the southeast at less than 10 knots after 01Z.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 630 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Intense squall line with wind gusts of 60-100 mph potential is on track for this afternoon and evening.
- Residual moisture along with another shortwave could lead to a few stronger storms along the I-70 corridor Monday evening.
- Cooler temperatures mid week.
UPDATE
Issued at 623 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
A well developed line of storm with 60-90 mph winds was in progress from Pawnee county south into Kiowa county and then southwest into Clark county. 0-3 km shear was increase to 30-35 kts as these storms move east. The central and northern part of the line will be more susceptible to QCLS tornadoes in segments that become near normal to the shear vector and where outflow and shear are balanced. However, chances for QLCS tornadoes are low at this point. Farther southwest the line normal shear will be too weak and the outflow will be too far ahead of the storms for QLCS spinups.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024
17Z obs and upper air analysis shows widespread low 60 dewpoints along and ahead of the dryline which is located in the far western Oklahoma panhandle. A cu field is starting to show up on satellite near Clayton, NM which will be monitored over the next couple of hours for storm initiation. CAMs have been consistent with storms forming and intensifying just west of the CO-KS border around 2 pm and quickly expanding and growing linear as they move eastward. HRRR wind gusts have been showing 60-80 kt wind potential at 10m starting near the K-25 corridor and growing eastward through the late afternoon and evening for the rest of southwest Kansas. Storm warnings will most likely reflect this with WEA activation for 80+ mph destructive wind threat. Another threat that will be monitored as the squall line matures east of highway 83 is QLCS tornadoes. 0-3 km bulk shear values are already SW at 35 kts east of highway 281 and are expected to increase with the intensification of the low level jet after 00Z. QLCS tornadoes will be very hard to have lead time on warnings as they are usually quick spin ups and along with the already destructive straight line wind threat regardless if the winds are rotating or straight they will be over 80 mph. The squall line should be out of DDC CWA by 03Z.
Lower confidence of a rogue supercell this evening is still in play mainly in NW Oklahoma around Woodward however this could be as far north as Coldwater-Medicine Lodge. If this happens with the low level jet, the moisture, and instability...this particular feature could have giant hail and supercell tornado potential.
Monday most of the day will be the atmosphere recharging as we should have a weak frontal boundary and southeast winds bringing in the return of some moisture. By the late afternoon and evening a shortwave trough is forecast to develop in northwest to north central Kansas and we could see another round of some strong to severe storms capable of hail and gusty winds.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
Issued at 137 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024
Short long term discussion due to upcoming severe weather event today. Main feature in the medium term model ensembles is a large longwave trough over the western CONUS which will bring a stronger cold front across Kansas Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. Most of the moisture and instability ahead of the front will be in central Kansas and thus the severe weather potential in southwest Kansas looks low. The longwave trough hangs on in the central and northern plains through the late workweek and with the upper level lows more in the northern plains the storm threat will be mostly due to frontal passages in northwest and north central Kansas Friday into Saturday.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 531 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024
Scattered thunderstorms will be possible across the HYS and DDC terminal over the next hour. Otherwise expect decreasing cloudiness overnight. Winds will generally be from the southeast at less than 10 knots after 01Z.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KDDC DODGE CITY RGNL,KS | 22 sm | 25 min | N 14G25 | 9 sm | A Few Clouds | 66°F | 54°F | 64% | 29.68 |
Dodge City, KS,
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