Sunrise 6:25 AM   Sunset 8:47 PM Moonrise 3:19 PM   Moonset 2:59 AM

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PZZ530 San Pablo Bay, Suisun Bay, The West Delta And The San Francisco Bay North Of The Bay Bridge- 853 Am Pdt Sat May 18 2024
Today - SW wind 5 to 10 kt, rising to 10 to 15 kt this afternoon. Waves around 2 ft or less. Tonight - SW wind 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft or less. Sun - SW wind 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft or less. Sun night - SW wind 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft or less. Mon - W wind 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft or less. Mon night - W wind 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft or less. Tue - W wind 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft or less. Tue night - W wind 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft or less. Wed - SW wind 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft or less. Wed night - SW wind 10 to 15 kt, easing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft or less.

PZZ500 853 Am Pdt Sat May 18 2024
Synopsis for the central california coast and bays including the Monterey bay - Greater farallones - .and cordell bank national marine sanctuaries - .
winds out of the north strengthen to become strong and slowly spread over the outer waters through the weekend. These stronger winds are expected to last through most of the upcoming work week. Gale force gusts build in the far northern waters today and are expected to last through at least Monday. Expect hazardous conditions and steeper wind waves from these building winds.

FXUS63 KDDC 180920 AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 420 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Updated Aviation

KEY MESSAGES

- A strong warming trend will continue through the weekend, with afternoon temperatures well into the 90s.

- Scattered thunderstorms are expected Sunday afternoon and evening. Some storms are expected to be severe with large hail and damaging winds.

- Cooler air is expected by midweek next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Issued at 205 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

A clear and quiet night across SW KS, as high pressure ridging builds aggressively aloft with rising heights and strong subsidence. A light SWly downslope breeze will develop through sunrise, and coupled with a much warmer lower atmosphere, all locations will easily remain in the 50s through sunrise Saturday.

The warming trend that began Friday will continue Saturday. The entire lower troposphere will continue to warm, with 500 mb heights climbing over 580 dm this afternoon, and 850 mb temperatures warming 3-4C over Friday. Working against the warming trend will be a dry cold frontal passage through Saturday, with surface winds taking on a northeast component and removing any downslope contributions by afternoon. Despite this, the strong warming will support afternoon temperatures in the upper 80s north to the lower 90s south. Some modest instability (CAPE of 1-2k) is noted mainly southeast of DDC Saturday afternoon, as temperatures in the lower 90s combine with dewpoints in the lower 50s. While some high based cumulus buildups with virga/spotty rain are possible, many CAMs are resistent to developing any convection at all without a trigger in a subsident environment. As such, forecast for Saturday remains dry (pops < 15%).

The process of warm/moist advection will kick into high gear Saturday night, with elevated southeast winds and increasing dewpoints. Elevated convection associated with this process is expected to remain north of the DDC CWA, so reduced/eliminated pops for Saturday night/early Sunday. A mild Sunday morning is expected, with many locations remaining at or above 60 thruogh sunrise Sunday.

The threat of severe weather appears to be increasing for Kansas Sunday afternoon/evening. A pronounced dryline is expected to tighten up along the US 83/283 corridors by 5-7 pm, with an unstable, moist and volatile warm sector ahead of this dryline, across the eastern one half of SW KS. 00z NAM is forecasting CAPE on the order of 4000 J/kg across eastern zones 4 pm Sunday. As is often the case as convective events approach, model guidance is trending westward with dryline placement and convective initiation. 00z CAMs are showing a clear trend of initiating west of DDC Sunday afternoon, and this trend cannot be ignored. Shortwave timing still appears favorably timed with the diurnal heating cycle, and any thunderstorms in the expected warm sector will find a CAPE/shear combination clearly supportive of supercells. Concern remains about the strength of the EML/capping inversion, but 00z NAM/GFS have trended 700 mb temperatures down a notch to the 11-12C range, which should be breakable, given 1) strong surface heating into the 90s and 2) strong dryline convergence. Given the current trends, and the fact that we are entering the peak of our climatological severe season, agree with SPC assessment of increasing severe probability to the enhanced category. Large hail (1-2 inch diameter) will be the primary threat initially, with damaging winds becoming likely as supercells congeal and grow upscale (probably as they exit into Wichita's CWA around midnight).
Damaging winds in excess of 70 mph are possible across eastern zones if the strong trend of upscale growth/cold pool expansion shown on CAMs verifies. High end hail/tornado potential exists for any supercell that can remain discrete and interact with the low level jet Sunday evening (most likely southeast of Dodge City), but the discrete supercell window may be brief. Given the trends, increased pops to the chance/likely category Sunday afternoon and evening for the eastern 2/3 of zones, and also mentioned severe wording in the grids and forecast products.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Issued at 205 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

No cold air advection is expected behind Sunday's shortwave, with another hot afternoon expected Monday. A weak wind shift/cold frontal boundary will sag southward through the day, and the hottest temperatures are expected adjacent to Oklahoma ahead of the boundary Monday afternoon. The favored Red Hills through Barber county continue with 00z GEFS highest probability of exceeding 100 degrees, and highs in the upper 90s are forecast for these zones. A new surface cyclone is forecast to develop over southeast Colorado 7 pm Monday, and models show strong instability in the afternoon with CAPE > 2000 J/kg.
Models forecast warm 700 mb temperatures in the 11-12C range, and it is doubtful the expected weak wind shift line would offer enough of a trigger to initiate convection through the cap. NBM is dry daylight Monday and this forecast was accepted.

Model consensus places a strong closed 557 dm low over western Wyoming 7 am Tuesday. This will strengthen midlevel SWly flow over SW KS, and the associated surface low will track northeast to near Hays sunrise Tuesday. Noticeably cooler and drier air will flow into SW KS Tuesday behind the associated cold front on elevated northwest winds. This synoptic evolution is expected to dryslot SW KS, pushing moisture and instability out of the region. The cooler air is forecast to be reinforced Wednesday, with the cold front being shoved south well into West Texas.
NBM has come into agreement with the ensembles and 00z MEX with Wednesday being the coolest day next week, with lows in the 40s and afternoon temperatures reduced to the 70s. As such, high confidence that Wednesday will be dry, but in late May, return flow of Gulf of Mexico moisture is usually quick and easy.
Indeed, south winds and moisture advection return Thursday, with 00z ECMWF and several EPS ensemble members suggesting warm air advection driven rainfall is possible Thursday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 420 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

VFR will continue through this TAF cycle, with increasing midlevel cloud expected after 06z Sun. Light winds will continue through 15z Sat. After 15z Sat, a weak dry cold front will bring a northeast wind shift to all airports, with northeast gusts of 22-25 kts expected. After 00z Sun, winds will diminish, but maintain an easterly component.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 230 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Strong south winds are expected Sunday as a strong dryline develops over southwest Kansas. West of the dryline, minimum relative humidity of 10-15% is expected over far southwest Kansas Sunday afternoon, where southwest winds are expected to gust 30-40 mph. While red flag conditions are probable across Stanton, Morton and Stevens counties Sunday afternoon, greenup in these areas has ended the fire weather season, and no red flag warnings are planned. Any outdoor burning in far southwest Kansas Sunday afternoon is discouraged.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

Point San Bruno
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Sat -- 03:28 AM PDT     Moonset
Sat -- 04:26 AM PDT     1.47 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:57 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:46 AM PDT     4.93 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:50 PM PDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:55 PM PDT     1.40 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:15 PM PDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:10 PM PDT     6.37 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Point San Bruno, San Francisco Bay, California, Tide feet

Oyster Point 2.8 mi E
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Sat -- 01:41 AM PDT     -1.09 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 03:28 AM PDT     Moonset
Sat -- 04:41 AM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:56 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:42 AM PDT     0.68 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 10:24 AM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 01:39 PM PDT     -0.99 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 03:50 PM PDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:36 PM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:44 PM PDT     0.80 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 08:15 PM PDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:38 PM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Oyster Point 2.8 mi E, South San Francisco Bay, California Current, knots

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Dodge City, KS,