Tuesday, September17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Irvington, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:47AMSunset 7:11PM Tuesday September 17, 2019 4:38 PM EDT (20:38 UTC) Moonrise 8:16PMMoonset 8:48AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ631 Chesapeake Bay From Windmill Point To New Point Comfort Va- 342 Pm Edt Tue Sep 17 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday evening...
Through 7 pm..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves around 3 ft.
Tonight..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves around 3 ft.
Wed..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves around 3 ft.
Wed night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft.
Thu..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Fri night..S winds 5 kt, becoming W after midnight. Waves 1 foot.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
ANZ600 342 Pm Edt Tue Sep 17 2019
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. Hurricane humberto is forecast to track well east of the southeast coast through midweek as high pressure builds north of the region.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Irvington town, VA
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location: 37.65, -76.45     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 172024
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
424 pm edt Tue sep 17 2019

Synopsis
A backdoor cold front will slide south of the area through this
evening. Surface high pressure gradually builds down into the
region from the north late tonight through Thursday. Meanwhile,
hurricane humberto is forecast to track well east of the
southeast coast through midweek.

Near term until 6 am Wednesday morning
As of 220 pm edt Tuesday...

latest sfc analysis reveals backdoor cool front dropping across
the area this aftn... As hurricane humberto continues to churn
off to the ene, farther away from the SE coast. Regional radar
mosaic showing only sct showers along the front from NE nc back
into the eastern va piedmont as the front drops through our far
southern tier of counties. Have maintained iso- sct shower
wording mainly south of ric metro tidewater areas... To include
south central va and interior NE nc through late this aftn. Sfc
cpd and time- lagged hrrr have done a decent job of timing
showers... And have run pops through 6pm 22z for now, with dry
conditions thereafter tonight. Drier air builds in from the ne
with time overnight, as high pressure builds across new england.

Clouds decrease from NE to sw. Forecast lows range from the mid
50s to low 60s as some persistent low-level mixing should
inhibit full radiational cooling despite the clearing sky.

Short term 6 am Wednesday morning through Wednesday night
As of 220 pm edt Tuesday...

high pressure continues to build swd from the eastern great
lakes new england Wednesday. Forecast soundings show some
lingering low level moisture with the onshore flow, which should
result in partly cloudy conditions along the coast, with mostly
sunny conditions west of i-95 to the piedmont. However, dry
conditions should prevail with limited deep layer moisture.

Comfortable conditions are expected, with highs topping out in
the 70s to near 80f... And dewpoints falling into the 50s for
most areas. Remaining rather breezy along the coast, due to the
cooler airmass over the warm water and a strong pressure
gradient between the high to the N and humberto well offshore.

Pleasant Wednesday night with lows in the low mid 50s inland,
and upper 50s low 60s closer to and along the coast.

Long term Thursday through Tuesday
As of 220 pm edt Tuesday...

cooler, drier conditions look to persist for the mid to latter
portion of the week. Ridge of sfc high pressure will prevail
over the mid-atlantic into the southeastern us for the late week
period. Aloft, the region will remain on the periphery of an
upper level ridge of high pressure, which will rebuild over the
region from the southwest during the upcoming weekend, bringing
a gradual warm- up late in the weekend into early next week.

Warm days and cool nights persist into the weekend, with high
temperatures Thursday through Saturday near to slightly below
seasonal averages with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

Overnight lows falling back into the low to mid 50s inland
(though a smattering of upper 40s possible in typical cool spots
thu Fri mornings)... With low to mid 60s at the coast. The
warming trend begins Saturday into early next week, with high
pressure at the surface and building heights aloft. Above
average temperatures likely prevail through this period with
highs in the mid upper 80s to around 90 degrees with early
morning lows generally in the 60s area wide.

Aviation 20z Tuesday through Sunday
As of 220 pm edt Tuesday...

a backdoor cold front is oriented south of the terminals early
this afternoon. A NE wind has developed post-frontal on the
order of 10-12kt (12-15kt coastal terminals). Gusts of 20-25kt
are expected into this evening before briefly diminishing
overnight. A few showers remain just w-sw of terminals this
afternoon, but should diminish through the next few hours... With
dry conditions expected thereafter. High end MVFR noted W of the
ric terminal and tempo MVFR possible into late aftn kric kecg.

Vfr conditions return all terminals this evening into the
overnight.

Outlook: high pressure builds in from the northeast tonight,
with the sky gradually clearing, although some sct sc could
linger toward the coast. Some sct to occasionally bkn CU are
possible Wednesday (especially toward the coast) after 10z 6a
edt wed, as onshore flow continues. A period of MVFR cigs
possible at sby... And eventually phf orf towards later wed
morning. High pressure settles into the region Thursday through
Saturday bringingVFR, mostly clear, and dry conditions.

Marine
As of 355 pm edt Tuesday...

afternoon surface analysis shows high pressure migrating eastward
from the great lakes region with hurricane humberto continuing to
organize off the southeast coast. The gradient between these two
features is leading to northeasterly winds of 15-20 knots with a few
gusts at elevated sensors nearing 25 knots this afternoon. Waves are
1-2 ft across the northern bay and 2-3 ft across the south. Seas
offshore are continuing to increase with 5-6 ft S and 4-5 ft n.

By late this aftn, NE winds increase to 17-20 kt (sustained) on the
bay and lower james river 20-25 kt on the ocean and currituck sound.

Additionally, seas increase to 5-6 ft (w 2-4 ft waves on the ches
bay) by this evening. The high becomes centered over NRN new england
by Wed am as humberto continues to track to the ene. Winds increase
slightly (by a few knots) tonight and a few gusts to 30 kt are
likely over the mouth of the ches bay SRN coastal waters by late
tonight Wed am. The potential for ~30 kt gusts in these areas
continues through the day on wed. Sustained winds of ~20 kt on the
bay 25 kt on the ocean are expected on Wed (lasting through the
first part of Wed night). There is a chc that scas may be needed for
the upper rivers for a time on wed, with at least a few gusts of ~20
kt likely. Seas build from 5-7 ft early Wed am to 7-10 ft by 00z thu
(highest S of the va nc border). A high surf advisory has been
hoisted for va beach and points south from Wednesday morning through
Thursday evening and will potentially need to be extended northward
and later in time in subsequent forecasts. Scas remain in effect
through 7 pm Wed for the ches bay, lower james river and currituck
sound (and may need to be extended further in subsequent forecast
packages). The SCA for the ocean extends through 7 pm Thu (due to
very high confidence in seas remaining AOA 5 ft).

On Thursday, the high is expected to build ssw toward the area as
humberto continues to slowly pull away to the ene. This will finally
allow for winds to turn to the N slowly diminish from Thu am-thu
night. The current forecast has wind gusts dropping below sca
thresholds by late Thu afternoon. The high is expected to settle
into the region from fri-sat before moving to the SE of the area on
sun. Winds are expected to become light (aob 10 kt) by late Fri and
remain that way through much of the weekend. However, seas (and
waves near the mouth of the bay) will be slow to diminish. Scas may
need to be extended for the mouth of the ches bay through Fri ocean
through Sat (due to waves seas).

Tides coastal flooding
As of 420 pm edt Tuesday...

a strong NE wind will push tidal anomalies to 1.0-1.5ft above
normal by Wednesday and Thursday. This has the potential to
produce minor tidal flooding, particularly on the south and west
sides of the ches bay, james river, and associated tributaries.

In addition... With the persistent NE wind swell... Water likely
gets trapped in the upper ches bay by thu. This will lead to
steadily increasing anomalies on the bayside of the lower md ern
shore. Borderline minor moderate tidal flooding is possible in
vulnerable areas of southern dorchester county by the high tide
Thursday evening, with a chc of minor flooding at
cambridge crisfield. Water levels are forecast to crest just
above minor flood thresholds at bishop's head by late Wed aftn.

The current forecast keeps water levels just below minor flood
thresholds along the atlantic coast of md, va, and nc. However,
there is a slight chc that water levels exceed minor flood
thresholds on the oceanside of the va ERN shore nc during the
higher astronomical tides on Wed thu.

A high rip current risk is forecast for today and Wednesday,
and will likely continue into Thursday, as swell from humberto
propagates toward the coast.

Equipment
Kdox radar remains offline due to an equipment issue. Technicians
at the site hope to have needed parts today, with a return to
service by tonight. Further updates will be passed along as they
become available... And will also be available through local
site free text message (ftmdox).

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... High surf advisory from 7 am Wednesday to 7 pm edt Thursday
for ncz102.

Va... High surf advisory from 7 am Wednesday to 7 pm edt Thursday
for vaz098.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 7 pm edt Wednesday for anz630>634-
638.

Small craft advisory until 7 pm edt Thursday for anz650-652-
654-656-658.

Synopsis... Mam
near term... Mam
short term... Ajz mam
long term... Mam
aviation... Ajz
marine... Eri rhr
tides coastal flooding... Akq
equipment... Akq


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 12 mi39 min NNE 16 G 18 75°F 78°F2 ft1020.8 hPa
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 21 mi69 min ENE 1.9 76°F 1019 hPa66°F
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 24 mi51 min ENE 16 G 18 1018.6 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 24 mi57 min ENE 7 G 8.9 1018.1 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 27 mi33 min NE 12 G 14 75°F 78°F1020.5 hPa
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 28 mi51 min E 16 G 19 75°F 1017.9 hPa
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 29 mi51 min ENE 15 G 19 75°F 80°F1017.2 hPa
44072 33 mi39 min SSE 16 G 19 75°F 79°F3 ft
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 34 mi51 min E 6 G 8.9
44041 - Jamestown, VA 35 mi33 min 75°F 82°F1017.6 hPa
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 41 mi51 min ENE 15 G 22 1017.8 hPa
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 42 mi57 min E 12 G 18 78°F
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 45 mi57 min ENE 9.9 G 13 1018.6 hPa
44087 46 mi39 min 78°F3 ft
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 46 mi51 min NNE 8 G 12 76°F 78°F1017.9 hPa
CHBV2 47 mi57 min ENE 18 G 20 1016.1 hPa
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 47 mi57 min ENE 16 G 18 75°F 1016.7 hPa
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 48 mi57 min NE 4.1 G 9.9 77°F 1017.4 hPa
44064 49 mi39 min E 18 G 21 75°F 77°F3 ft1016.6 hPa (-0.4)
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 49 mi57 min 80°F1017.2 hPa

Wind History for Lewisetta, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
West Point, Middle Peninsula Regional Airport, VA19 mi44 minE 1110.00 miMostly Cloudy79°F63°F60%1017.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFYJ

Wind History from FYJ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE9SE4E5SE4E4SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4NE4E5E9
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1 day agoN4E4E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmSW4SW3SW5S5S7SE6
2 days agoSE7SE7SE4SE5E4CalmCalmCalmS3SE5SE4S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4W5N4NW5W6Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Orchard Point, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Orchard Point
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:56 AM EDT     1.64 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:49 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:21 AM EDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 09:48 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 02:17 PM EDT     1.75 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:10 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:54 PM EDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 09:16 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.31.61.61.61.310.70.40.30.30.50.91.31.61.71.71.51.20.90.60.40.30.50.7

Tide / Current Tables for Urbanna, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Urbanna
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:12 AM EDT     1.64 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:49 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:39 AM EDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 09:49 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 02:33 PM EDT     1.75 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:11 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:12 PM EDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 09:16 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.21.51.61.61.41.10.80.50.30.30.40.81.21.51.71.71.61.310.70.50.30.40.6

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.