NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 645 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Additional showers and thunderstorms develop today, bringing the potential for locally heavy rainfall.

This morning, weakening low pressure is located over eastern TN.
Meanwhile, ~1022mb high pressure remains centered off the New England coast.

Low pressure will continue to move gradually to the northwest and a new coastal low begins to form offshore. It will be another unsettled day with additional showers and potentially a few thunderstorms (best thunderstorm chances across the southern half of the area). Any showers today may produce locally heavy rainfall, with WPC highlighting much of the area in a Day 1 Marginal ERO. It will also be another day with little in the way of sunshine, with mostly cloudy to overcast skies expected throughout the day. Temperatures today will range from the lower 70s across the NW, to the lower 80s SE. Rain chances decrease overnight, with only a slight chance for an isolated shower.
Additional fog or low clouds are also possible tonight. Lows tonight drop back into the lower 60s NW to upper 60s SE.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
As of 330 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Decreasing rain chances Thursday and Friday

As the coastal low lifts further to the NE on Thursday, expect a drier day compared to today with even some partial clearing (especially west) late in the day. Still, isolated to scattered afternoon showers or storms will be possible, with the best chances across far southern Virginia into northeast North Carolina (30-40% PoPs). High temperatures on Thursday will generally be in the upper 70s area-wide and low temperatures will range from the upper 50s to lower 60s. Sunshine returns Friday with temperatures warming into the upper 70s to around 80. A backdoor cold front pushes south into the area later Friday into Friday night, bringing a slight chance for an afternoon shower (mainly across the MD Eastern Shore). Low temperatures Friday night range from the upper 50s to the lower 60s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 330 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Drier and cooler weather arrives this weekend into early next week.

Aloft, a tall upper level ridge builds well into Canada and Greenland with an upper level trough along the East Coast this weekend into early next week. At the surface, low pressure lingers off the Mid Atlantic coastline through the weekend, gradually shifting south Sunday into early next week. Meanwhile, high pressure remains centered in Quebec through Saturday before dropping south into New England by Monday. Cooler weather is expected by Sunday and especially Monday, with highs only in the low to mid 70s. Overnight lows will generally be in the 50s away from the coast. Given the low off the coast, coastal areas can expect breezy conditions with gusts to 25-30 mph this weekend into Monday along with greater cloud cover and humidity. Additionally, cannot rule out a few isolated showers along the coast (15-25% PoPs).

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 645 AM EDT Wednesday...

Widespread IFR to LIFR CIGs continue across the region this morning. IFR CIGs likely try to hang on during much of the daytime hours, with ECG having the best potential to see a brief window of MVFR CIGs this afternoon. Additional showers develop this morning through this afternoon, leading to the potential for MVFR to IFR VSBY restrictions under any heavier showers. Winds average 5-10 knots out of the NE through the period. IFR to LIFR CIGs redevelop tonight and are expected for the remainder of the forecast period.

Outlook: Sub-VFR CIGs likely stick around into early Thursday afternoon, before a potential improvement late. Gradually improving conditions are then expected on Friday and Saturday.

MARINE
As of 345 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories linger into the evening for the coastal waters due to elevated seas.

- Another round of Small Craft Advisory conditions appears increasingly likely this weekend into early next week.

A weak area of secondary low pressure is forming along the SE coast this morning while high pressure remains anchored to the N. Winds remain onshore, but a relaxing pressure gradient has allowed for diminishing winds overnight. Latest obs indicate winds generally at 10-15kt. Seas are slow to diminish given onshore flow. Early morning buoy obs show 5-6ft seas. Remaining SCAs in the bay will be allowed to expire early this morning. Low pressure will shift the NE through this evening as high pressure wedges in behind it. Winds will shift to the NE this morning, remaining breezy over the upper bay and northern coastal waters at ~15kt. Elsewhere, winds will be 10-15kt today. Seas S of Cape Charles Light should drop back to 3-4ft this afternoon, allowing the SCA there to end. Northern waters will be slower to diminish, so SCAs will likely last into late tonight.
Winds shift to the N at 5-10kt across all waters overnight. These conditions continue through Thurs evening as low pressure lingers offshore Thurs and high pressure remains overhead. SCAs may have to be extended for the northernmost zones for 5ft seas. However, it looks marginal so far with 5ft seas only hanging on out near 20nm.

The offshore low looks to stick around through at least half the weekend with high pressure wedged in behind it. Northerly winds continue Fri, becoming at little breezier at 10-15kt by the afternoon. SCAs are likely to return for at least northern coastal waters Fri afternoon as seas build back toward 5-6ft. Low pressure potentially retrogrades slightly Sat, leading to a tighter pressure gradient and higher winds. NE winds increase to 15-25kt Sat (highest over northern waters). Hazardous marine conditions likely continue through Sun.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 350 AM EDT Wednesday...

Astronomical tides will continue to increase with the approach of the next full moon. Higher astro tides along with prolonged onshore flow will lead to nuisance to low- end minor tidal flooding across much of the area along the bay and tidal rivers through the end of the week. Have extended CF Advisories through the morning high tide cycle tonight for much of the bay, and adjacent tributaries. Have also extended the coastal flood statement for the Eastern Shore given levels hitting minor flood thresholds at Bishop's Head, but remaining under flood thresholds other nearby sites.

Additional advisories/extension of Advisories will likely be needed through the end of the week and into the weekend due to extended periods of onshore flow and high astro tides. Low end moderate flooding is possible at particularly vulnerable spots (Bishop's Head, Oyster), but otherwise staying within minor flood thresholds so far. However, a building flood tide Saturday into Saturday night does bring the potential for tide levels reaching moderate Coastal Flood Thresholds (best chances northern coastal zones and lower bay) for tide cycles over the upcoming weekend.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for VAZ075-077.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for VAZ076-078-085-522.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for VAZ084- 086-089-090-093-095>100-523>525.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ650.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ652-654.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ656- 658.