Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Urbanna, VA
May 18, 2024 3:40 PM EDT (19:40 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:55 AM Sunset 8:16 PM Moonrise 2:40 PM Moonset 2:22 AM |
ANZ635 Rappahannock River From Urbanna To Windmill Point- 319 Pm Edt Sat May 18 2024
Through 7 pm - E winds 10 kt. Waves around 1 ft. Showers likely.
Tonight - NE winds 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. A chance of showers early in the evening.
Sun - NE winds 10 kt with gusts up to 15 kt. Waves around 1 foot.
Sun night - NE winds 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.
Mon - NE winds 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.
Mon night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.
Tue - NE winds 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less and light chop, increasing to around 1 foot in the afternoon.
Tue night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.
Wed - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.
Wed night - S winds 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.
ANZ600 319 Pm Edt Sat May 18 2024
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
a low pressure system moves across the carolinas this evening, then pushes off the coast tonight into Sunday, before slowly moving offshore Monday. High pressure returns by Tuesday.
a low pressure system moves across the carolinas this evening, then pushes off the coast tonight into Sunday, before slowly moving offshore Monday. High pressure returns by Tuesday.
FXUS61 KAKQ 181914 AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 314 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024
SYNOPSIS
Cool and dreary conditions across the area today with the potential for a few thunderstorms in NC. The widespread rain will shift south tonight into Sunday, though at least light rain or drizzle will still be possible. Dry weather returns Monday, with a warming trend leading to a more summerlike pattern by the middle of the week.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
As of 310 PM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
-Cool and dreary this evening with overcast skies and spotty light showers
-Showers and a thunderstorm or two expected in NC counties this evening
Cool and dreary conditions are ongoing across the forecast area this afternoon. Latest analysis indicates a boundary is situated just to the south of the area with cool high pressure ridging into the Mid- Atlantic from Atlantic Canada. Aloft, SW flow is in place with a trough/low pressure to the W and a shortwave traveling over the area. Very light echos on radar and obs indicate that drizzle/light showers are ongoing across eastern portions of the area. Overcast skies, rain, and the onshore flow have kept temps well below normal today. Afternoon obs show temps in the low 60s with a couple of sites even in the upper 50s. The extreme southern portion of the area is slightly warmer, with temps in the mid-upper 60s.
Redevelopment of showers and perhaps isolated rumbles of thunder are expected this afternoon in NC as the trough shifts east and a shortwave moves over the area. However, initiation of showers may prove difficult given the rain this morning and cool, misty conditions this afternoon. Indeed, the trend of high-res guidance today has been to keep the vast majority of precip to the south.
Therefore, have tightened up PoPs to keep anything above 55% to the extreme southern edge. If thunderstorms manage to develop, there is a marginal risk for isolated severe wind. Showers gradually diminish overnight, lingering longest in the far SE. Overcast skies continue tonight and lows will be in the upper 50s.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 325 AM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
- Low chance for showers across SE VA and NE NC Sunday, with dry weather elsewhere. High temperatures will remain below normal, though may warm into the 70s for northern portions of the area.
- Partly to mostly cloudy skies and below normal temperatures Monday across coastal areas. Near-normal temperatures expected well inland.
Drying out Sunday as weak low pressure gradually moves ESE off the Carolina coast. There may be quite a difference in weather Sunday across the area as drier air attempts to filter into from the north and the cooler maritime airmass persists across the SE and along the coast. Thus, we may see some clearing for northern portions of the area away from the immediate coast (especially in the later aftn hrs). In response to this potential, the guidance is trending up with temps across this area. Given looming uncertainty and the fact that these airmasses are sometimes hard to scour out, will blend the previous forecast's highs w/ the NBM, which yields temps in the low 70s across the N (a couple degrees below NBM). However, temps could certainly be warmer w/ 75th percentile highs approaching the mid 70s. Highs likely to stay in the 60s in SE VA/NE NC and along the Atlantic coast (where it also remains breezy). PoPs also continue to trend down, with just slight chc for the srn half of the area (30% along the Albemarle Sound). Lows Sun night in the mid 50s.
Low pressure gradually shifts offshore Monday, though an additional low may develop S of the upper feature offshore. High pressure also nudges south into the Mid-Atlantic. NE flow is still expected (breeziest across southern coastal areas), keeping temperatures below normal across the SE, and slight below normal elsewhere. The low levels dry out enough well inland, allowing temperatures to warm into the mid-upper 70s. Upper 60s are expected along the coast. The majority of the area stays dry with PoPs below 20% areawide. Lows Mon night in the 50s with some upper 40s possible well inland.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 325 AM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
- A substantial warming trend is expected Tuesday through Thursday with mainly dry weather.
- Thunderstorm chances return Thursday afternoon and again Friday afternoon, with some stronger storms possible.
Low pressure gets pushed offshore rather quickly Mon night, with upper level ridging moving in by Tue. As such, much warmer temps are expected midweek, with highs Tue in the upper 70s/lower 80s inland and in the low-mid 70s at the coast. The warming trend continues Wed into Thu with mid/upper 80s making a comeback. An isolated shower is possible across the NW Wed night w/ a shortwave sliding through the ern Great Lakes.
However, vast majority of the moisture stays well to our NW.
There is decent agreement among the global models that a cold front will cross the area in the later Thursday/early Friday timeframe. Will have a chc of showers and storms over most of the area. CAPE fields from the GFS/ECMWF show impressive instability so could see some stronger storms. A little cooler behind the front to end the week, though will need to watch another disturbance ejecting out of the Plains Friday into Saturday. Depending on the track of the sfc feature, will again need to monitor for some stronger storms. Overnight lows will be in the 50s Tue night and 60s for the remainder of the week.
AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 200 PM EDT Saturday...
Degraded flight conditions continue this afternoon and look to prevail for the 18z TAF period. Latest obs indicate that most terminals are in IFR. MVFR at SBY likely continue through the evening, then CIGs will drop below 1kft late tonight. While heavier rain ended earlier today, light showers/drizzle continues across eastern portions of the area, which may degrade vsby at times. ECG could see heavier showers this afternoon and perhaps a rumble or two of thunder, but the majority of the activity looks to stay to south of the forecast area. E winds become NE overnight. May be gusty at times near the coast.
Outlook: Conditions improve through the day Sun with the forecast now looking mainly dry, though BKN-OVC skies are slow to scatter out. Dry conditions and scattered cloud cover then expected through mid- week.
MARINE
As of 325 AM EDT Saturday...
Key Message:
- Increasing NE wind and seas for the weekend. Small craft advisories will go into effect for southern portions of the marine area later tonight.
Weak high pressure is centered in vicinity of the Mid-Atlantic coast early this morning, with weak low pressure centered well inland and slowly approaching from the W. The wind in mainly E to NE at 5-10kt with seas 3-4ft. Low pressure will track ESE across NC today and become more organized off the Carolina coast tonight into Sunday, before very slowly pulling away from the coast through Monday.
Meanwhile, high pressure slowly builds in from the N. The wind is expected to become E 10-15kt today, and then become NE by tonight into Sunday ranging from 10-15kt N to 15-20kt with gusts to 25kt S.
Seas build to 4-5ft N to 5-6ft S (potentially 6-8ft if the wind reaches 20-25kt). SCAs will go into effect later tonight from Cape Charles S for the ocean, the mouth of the Bay, and the Currituck Sound. High pressure builds across the Mid-Atlantic coast Tuesday into Wednesday as weak low pressure lingers off the Southeast coast.
High pressure slides offshore later in the week with the wind becoming SSW but remaining sub-SCA. Seas gradually subside to 3-4ft by Monday night/Tuesday, and then 2-3ft by midweek.
A moderate risk for rip currents continues for today, with moderate for the northern beaches Sunday, and high for the southern beaches due to increasing NE flow and building seas.
HYDROLOGY
As of 325 AM EDT Saturday...
Flood Warnings remain in effect for Nottoway River near Stony Creek for minor flooding. Lawrenceville crested last night and has now fallen below flood stage. Stony Creek remains in flood and is expected to crest tonight. See FLSAKQ for additional information.
Latest forecasts indicate rainfall amounts from today will lead to a secondary rise in water level late in the weekend/early next week, but that most places stay just below Minor Flood thresholds. Will still need to monitor as a slight over- performance would lead to additional flooding.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 325 AM EDT Saturday...
Tidal anomalies have dropped a few tenths of a foot across the middle Chesapeake Bay and tidal Potomac and Rappahannock Rivers in the wake of a modest ebb tide. Therefore, nuisance to minor tidal flooding is largely not expected during the next high tide cycle later this morning to mid-afternoon. However, astronomical high tides will gradually increase over the next several days, and this combined with increasing onshore flow will result in nuisance to minor tidal flooding later this weekend into early next week, particularly for the middle Chesapeake Bay and tidal portions of the Rappahannock River and southern shore of the tidal Potomac.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ633.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Sunday to 1 AM EDT Monday for ANZ634.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Sunday to 7 PM EDT Monday for ANZ652-654.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Sunday to 7 PM EDT Monday for ANZ656-658.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 314 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024
SYNOPSIS
Cool and dreary conditions across the area today with the potential for a few thunderstorms in NC. The widespread rain will shift south tonight into Sunday, though at least light rain or drizzle will still be possible. Dry weather returns Monday, with a warming trend leading to a more summerlike pattern by the middle of the week.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
As of 310 PM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
-Cool and dreary this evening with overcast skies and spotty light showers
-Showers and a thunderstorm or two expected in NC counties this evening
Cool and dreary conditions are ongoing across the forecast area this afternoon. Latest analysis indicates a boundary is situated just to the south of the area with cool high pressure ridging into the Mid- Atlantic from Atlantic Canada. Aloft, SW flow is in place with a trough/low pressure to the W and a shortwave traveling over the area. Very light echos on radar and obs indicate that drizzle/light showers are ongoing across eastern portions of the area. Overcast skies, rain, and the onshore flow have kept temps well below normal today. Afternoon obs show temps in the low 60s with a couple of sites even in the upper 50s. The extreme southern portion of the area is slightly warmer, with temps in the mid-upper 60s.
Redevelopment of showers and perhaps isolated rumbles of thunder are expected this afternoon in NC as the trough shifts east and a shortwave moves over the area. However, initiation of showers may prove difficult given the rain this morning and cool, misty conditions this afternoon. Indeed, the trend of high-res guidance today has been to keep the vast majority of precip to the south.
Therefore, have tightened up PoPs to keep anything above 55% to the extreme southern edge. If thunderstorms manage to develop, there is a marginal risk for isolated severe wind. Showers gradually diminish overnight, lingering longest in the far SE. Overcast skies continue tonight and lows will be in the upper 50s.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 325 AM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
- Low chance for showers across SE VA and NE NC Sunday, with dry weather elsewhere. High temperatures will remain below normal, though may warm into the 70s for northern portions of the area.
- Partly to mostly cloudy skies and below normal temperatures Monday across coastal areas. Near-normal temperatures expected well inland.
Drying out Sunday as weak low pressure gradually moves ESE off the Carolina coast. There may be quite a difference in weather Sunday across the area as drier air attempts to filter into from the north and the cooler maritime airmass persists across the SE and along the coast. Thus, we may see some clearing for northern portions of the area away from the immediate coast (especially in the later aftn hrs). In response to this potential, the guidance is trending up with temps across this area. Given looming uncertainty and the fact that these airmasses are sometimes hard to scour out, will blend the previous forecast's highs w/ the NBM, which yields temps in the low 70s across the N (a couple degrees below NBM). However, temps could certainly be warmer w/ 75th percentile highs approaching the mid 70s. Highs likely to stay in the 60s in SE VA/NE NC and along the Atlantic coast (where it also remains breezy). PoPs also continue to trend down, with just slight chc for the srn half of the area (30% along the Albemarle Sound). Lows Sun night in the mid 50s.
Low pressure gradually shifts offshore Monday, though an additional low may develop S of the upper feature offshore. High pressure also nudges south into the Mid-Atlantic. NE flow is still expected (breeziest across southern coastal areas), keeping temperatures below normal across the SE, and slight below normal elsewhere. The low levels dry out enough well inland, allowing temperatures to warm into the mid-upper 70s. Upper 60s are expected along the coast. The majority of the area stays dry with PoPs below 20% areawide. Lows Mon night in the 50s with some upper 40s possible well inland.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 325 AM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
- A substantial warming trend is expected Tuesday through Thursday with mainly dry weather.
- Thunderstorm chances return Thursday afternoon and again Friday afternoon, with some stronger storms possible.
Low pressure gets pushed offshore rather quickly Mon night, with upper level ridging moving in by Tue. As such, much warmer temps are expected midweek, with highs Tue in the upper 70s/lower 80s inland and in the low-mid 70s at the coast. The warming trend continues Wed into Thu with mid/upper 80s making a comeback. An isolated shower is possible across the NW Wed night w/ a shortwave sliding through the ern Great Lakes.
However, vast majority of the moisture stays well to our NW.
There is decent agreement among the global models that a cold front will cross the area in the later Thursday/early Friday timeframe. Will have a chc of showers and storms over most of the area. CAPE fields from the GFS/ECMWF show impressive instability so could see some stronger storms. A little cooler behind the front to end the week, though will need to watch another disturbance ejecting out of the Plains Friday into Saturday. Depending on the track of the sfc feature, will again need to monitor for some stronger storms. Overnight lows will be in the 50s Tue night and 60s for the remainder of the week.
AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 200 PM EDT Saturday...
Degraded flight conditions continue this afternoon and look to prevail for the 18z TAF period. Latest obs indicate that most terminals are in IFR. MVFR at SBY likely continue through the evening, then CIGs will drop below 1kft late tonight. While heavier rain ended earlier today, light showers/drizzle continues across eastern portions of the area, which may degrade vsby at times. ECG could see heavier showers this afternoon and perhaps a rumble or two of thunder, but the majority of the activity looks to stay to south of the forecast area. E winds become NE overnight. May be gusty at times near the coast.
Outlook: Conditions improve through the day Sun with the forecast now looking mainly dry, though BKN-OVC skies are slow to scatter out. Dry conditions and scattered cloud cover then expected through mid- week.
MARINE
As of 325 AM EDT Saturday...
Key Message:
- Increasing NE wind and seas for the weekend. Small craft advisories will go into effect for southern portions of the marine area later tonight.
Weak high pressure is centered in vicinity of the Mid-Atlantic coast early this morning, with weak low pressure centered well inland and slowly approaching from the W. The wind in mainly E to NE at 5-10kt with seas 3-4ft. Low pressure will track ESE across NC today and become more organized off the Carolina coast tonight into Sunday, before very slowly pulling away from the coast through Monday.
Meanwhile, high pressure slowly builds in from the N. The wind is expected to become E 10-15kt today, and then become NE by tonight into Sunday ranging from 10-15kt N to 15-20kt with gusts to 25kt S.
Seas build to 4-5ft N to 5-6ft S (potentially 6-8ft if the wind reaches 20-25kt). SCAs will go into effect later tonight from Cape Charles S for the ocean, the mouth of the Bay, and the Currituck Sound. High pressure builds across the Mid-Atlantic coast Tuesday into Wednesday as weak low pressure lingers off the Southeast coast.
High pressure slides offshore later in the week with the wind becoming SSW but remaining sub-SCA. Seas gradually subside to 3-4ft by Monday night/Tuesday, and then 2-3ft by midweek.
A moderate risk for rip currents continues for today, with moderate for the northern beaches Sunday, and high for the southern beaches due to increasing NE flow and building seas.
HYDROLOGY
As of 325 AM EDT Saturday...
Flood Warnings remain in effect for Nottoway River near Stony Creek for minor flooding. Lawrenceville crested last night and has now fallen below flood stage. Stony Creek remains in flood and is expected to crest tonight. See FLSAKQ for additional information.
Latest forecasts indicate rainfall amounts from today will lead to a secondary rise in water level late in the weekend/early next week, but that most places stay just below Minor Flood thresholds. Will still need to monitor as a slight over- performance would lead to additional flooding.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 325 AM EDT Saturday...
Tidal anomalies have dropped a few tenths of a foot across the middle Chesapeake Bay and tidal Potomac and Rappahannock Rivers in the wake of a modest ebb tide. Therefore, nuisance to minor tidal flooding is largely not expected during the next high tide cycle later this morning to mid-afternoon. However, astronomical high tides will gradually increase over the next several days, and this combined with increasing onshore flow will result in nuisance to minor tidal flooding later this weekend into early next week, particularly for the middle Chesapeake Bay and tidal portions of the Rappahannock River and southern shore of the tidal Potomac.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ633.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Sunday to 1 AM EDT Monday for ANZ634.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Sunday to 7 PM EDT Monday for ANZ652-654.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Sunday to 7 PM EDT Monday for ANZ656-658.
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KFYJ MIDDLE PENINSULA RGNL,VA | 13 sm | 25 min | calm | 3/4 sm | Overcast | 61°F | 59°F | 94% | 29.96 | |
| KXSA TAPPAHANNOCKESSEX COUNTY,VA | 22 sm | 25 min | E 06 | 3 sm | Overcast | Mist | 61°F | 61°F | 100% | 29.97 |
Urbanna
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:16 AM EDT 0.30 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:22 AM EDT Moonset
Sat -- 05:53 AM EDT Sunrise
Sat -- 08:58 AM EDT 1.27 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:24 PM EDT 0.26 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:40 PM EDT Moonrise
Sat -- 08:12 PM EDT Sunset
Sat -- 09:25 PM EDT 1.45 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:16 AM EDT 0.30 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:22 AM EDT Moonset
Sat -- 05:53 AM EDT Sunrise
Sat -- 08:58 AM EDT 1.27 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:24 PM EDT 0.26 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:40 PM EDT Moonrise
Sat -- 08:12 PM EDT Sunset
Sat -- 09:25 PM EDT 1.45 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Urbanna, Rappahannock River, Virginia, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.8 |
| 1 am |
| 0.6 |
| 2 am |
| 0.4 |
| 3 am |
| 0.3 |
| 4 am |
| 0.3 |
| 5 am |
| 0.5 |
| 6 am |
| 0.8 |
| 7 am |
| 1 |
| 8 am |
| 1.2 |
| 9 am |
| 1.3 |
| 10 am |
| 1.2 |
| 11 am |
| 1 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 7 pm |
| 1 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.3 |
Orchard Point
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:58 AM EDT 0.30 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:22 AM EDT Moonset
Sat -- 05:53 AM EDT Sunrise
Sat -- 08:42 AM EDT 1.27 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:06 PM EDT 0.26 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:39 PM EDT Moonrise
Sat -- 08:11 PM EDT Sunset
Sat -- 09:09 PM EDT 1.45 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:58 AM EDT 0.30 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:22 AM EDT Moonset
Sat -- 05:53 AM EDT Sunrise
Sat -- 08:42 AM EDT 1.27 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:06 PM EDT 0.26 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:39 PM EDT Moonrise
Sat -- 08:11 PM EDT Sunset
Sat -- 09:09 PM EDT 1.45 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Orchard Point, Rappahannock River, Virginia, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.8 |
| 1 am |
| 0.5 |
| 2 am |
| 0.4 |
| 3 am |
| 0.3 |
| 4 am |
| 0.4 |
| 5 am |
| 0.6 |
| 6 am |
| 0.8 |
| 7 am |
| 1.1 |
| 8 am |
| 1.2 |
| 9 am |
| 1.3 |
| 10 am |
| 1.2 |
| 11 am |
| 1 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 7 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.2 |
Wakefield, VA,
NOTICE: Some pages have affiliate links to Amazon. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE