Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for King and Queen Court House, VA

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 235 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Warm and breezy this afternoon after a cool start this morning.

Surface analysis shows 1026mb high pressure translating offshore early this morning with low pressure extending from the southern Plains into the upper Midwest. Aloft, an upper ridge is moving into the area as an upper trough digs into the Four Corners region.

Temps have fallen into the 40s to low 50s this morning with southerly winds and some high level clouds moving over the area.
High pressure continues to move offshore today with a decent pressure gradient resulting in breezy SSW winds across the region.
Winds could gust to 20-25 mph this afternoon. Forecast soundings show deep mixing with some moisture at the top of the mixed layer resulting in scattered cumulus clouds this afternoon. High temperatures will top out in near 80 degrees for most of the area with 60s and low 70s expected for the Eastern Shore where onshore flow should keep temps in check. Mild and dry tonight with low temps around 60 degrees.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
As of 325 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Dry with warming temperatures through the weekend.

The upper ridge axis slides over the US East Coast late Friday into Saturday. Breezy SW winds continue the warming trend, owing to the tightening pressure gradient between the Bermuda Ridge offshore and a cold front well to the W. Temperatures Friday night will be mild for this time of year with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Saturday will be the warmest day of the weekend as high are progged to reach into the middle to upper 80s. The breezy conditions are expected to lower Saturday but sustained winds will still be between 10 to 15 mph with gusts upwards of 20mph. Lows Saturday will be in the middle 60s. Saturday night a cold front will move south and will stall over much of the area on Sunday causing a decent temperature gradient across the area. Temperatures Sunday will be in the lower to middle 80s across the south and upper 70s to lower 80s across the north. Lows for Sunday will be back into the upper 50s as the cold front moves across the area.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 320 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- The next cold front approaches the area Tuesday with chances for showers.

- Above average temperatures continue through the rest of the forecast period.

High pressure off the Carolina coast continues to be pushed further offshore as a low pressure system moves eastward from the Great Plains. The cold front associated with this system continues to appear weak with lower confidence for precip across the area.
Ensemble models have trended the timing of this system to be slower, with the front now moving through the area Tuesday. GEFS and EPS only have 30-40% probabilities of 0.1" or greater of QPF for the area. This weak front likely won't cause the temperatures to dip down much as high pressure returns Wednesday and Thursday, with above average temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s for the majority of the area (slightly cooler on the Eastern Shore) through the extended period. Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Remaining mostly dry through much of the remainder of the forecast period, with the next chances of rain likely not until late in the week or the following weekend.

AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 125 AM EDT Friday...

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period at all terminals. Some SCT/BKN cirrus is noted on satellite imagery streaming in from the NW. Generally light and variable winds through sunrise become S or SSW 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt from mid morning through the afternoon. Forecast soundings shows some moisture at the top of the mixed layer so FEW/SCT CU are possible for all but SBY where moisture is lower. Guidance shows the potential for widespread LLWS across the region just after the 06z forecast period. Have included LLWS at SBY late in the forecast for now.

Outlook: LLWS is possible at all terminals late tonight.
VFR/dry conditions continue through the end of the week.
Remaining mostly dry through the weekend. The next shot at widespread precipitation looks to be early next week.

MARINE
As of 300 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Southerly winds increase on Friday and continue into Saturday ahead of the next cold front.

Latest analysis reveals broad 1024+mb high pressure in place over the eastern seaboard this afternoon. Winds were light and variable, but averaged NNE ~5-8 kt. Waves 1-2 ft with seas 2-3 ft.

Mainly benign conditions across the waters this evening with high pressure overhead, then sliding offshore on Friday. S-SW flow slowly increases Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon in association with tightening pressure gradient ahead of a warm front lifting through the local area, as low pressure lifts across the Great Lakes. Local wind probs continue to indicate high confidence for SCA conditions for the Ches Bay and northern coastal waters during this period with winds ramping up to 15-20 kt Friday afternoon and evening, with gusts to 25 kt (30 kt gusts possible across the northern coastal waters), and a SCA has been issued in these areas. Confidence in seeing sustained SCA conditions is lower for the southern coastal waters and Currituck Sound where the pressure gradient will not be as strong, so will continue to cap winds just below SCA thresholds. Confidence has increased enough to add in the James River tomorrow evening into Sat afternoon, but will hold out the remaining rivers for now with confidence of SCA winds there a bit lower. Waves in the bay will build to 2-3 ft along with the winds by late Friday afternoon into Friday evening, with SSE wind wave also allowing seas to increase during this period with 2-4 ft expected south of Cape Charles Light and 4-6 ft to the north.

The cold front will struggle to make inroads toward the local waters late Saturday into Sunday as the pressure gradient relaxes. Sub-SCA conditions are forecast to return for Sunday into early next week.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 4 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ630>632-634.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ637-638.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ650-652.