Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for King and Queen Court House, VA

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 325 AM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

- Temperatures will not be quite as cold tonight but still well below average.

-Temperatures increase slightly Today but still stay below average.

Latest weather analysis shows a broad 500mb trough across Canada and into the Great Lakes, with a decently strong southern stream wave stretching down into the far southern planes. A strong upper level jet is in place from the western Gulf coast to New England, this has allowed for some high level clouds to move into the far south eastern region of the CWA The upstream shortwave has already begun to phase and the higher level clouds have slowly begun to move out of the area. Across the NW region of the CWA a batch of lower clouds have moved across the Appalachian and Blue Ridge mountains. These clouds will slowly linger across the NW and potentially keep temperatures slightly warmer tonight.
Temperatures across the area are ranging between the upper teens to lower 20s. While across the Eastern Shore temperatures are in the lower to middle teens as winds have died down allowing for strong radiational cooling to occur. With fairly light winds and continued clearing tonight, dropped low temperatures a few degrees where the snow cover lingers over SE VA and NE NC, and also across the eastern shore. Lows overnight will range from the mid/upper teens to lower 20s for most areas (no need for any Cold Weather Advisory headlines given little wind). Over the course of the day cloud cover will increase slightly across the area giving way to partly cloudy skies. The extra cloud cover will keep temperatures slightly cooler with highs in the upper 30s across the north and lower 40s east and south of I-64.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 325 AM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

- Temperatures continue to increase through the weekend.

- Dry weather conditions continue.

The strong upper trough will continue to move across the Mid- Atlantic and New England late Friday and into Saturday. With the trough exiting the area this will give way to slight ridging aloft and a high pressure will move in from the west at the surface. This will allow temperatures to bounce back near normal by the weekend.
Before the temperatures warm back up there will be another night with temperatures in the upper teens to lower 20s. Friday night will be the coldest night in the short term with lows in the upper teens and lower 20s with mostly clear skies. By Saturday as high pressure moves in allowing skies to clear and winds will shift out of the south. This will give way to slightly "warmer" temperatures with highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Cloud cover will return on Saturday night as another less amplified trough digs southward across the region. The extra cloud cover will not allow temperatures to cool down much. Lows Saturday will be in the middle to upper 20s. A weak frontal boundary will transverse across the region Sunday bringing partly cloudy skies. Highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s are forecast during they day, leading to a relatively mild end of the weekend. By Sunday night clouds will continue to linger again halting radiational cooling. Lows will be in the middle 20s across the region. By Monday a weak 700mb shortwave will bring a weak system across the south. However, a weak cold front will make its way across the CWA keeping us dry. Cloud cover will decrease through the day and highs will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 325 AM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

- Mainly dry conditions are expected through early next week with moderating temperatures.

The latest 0z/24 ensemble;e guidance is in decent agreement with each other. Even with a weak cold front moving across the area late Monday temperatures will bounce back Tuesday with Highs in the lower to middle 50s. High pressure will then move quickly off to the east allowing temperatures to stay in the lower to middle 50s Wednesday.
However, across the Ohio River Valley a potential low pressure system will begin to take shape and move through the Great Lakes vicinity. No precipitation is expected from this system as high pressure will keep the CWA dry. Across the New England a strong high pressure will potentially begin to take shape behind the frontal passage. This High will potentially give way to much cooler temperatures across the CWA with highs in the upper to middle 40s Thursday and middle to lower 40s Fridays with lows in the middle 20s.

AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 1205 AM EST Friday...

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through the 06Z/24 TAF period. High clouds linger closer to the coast early this morning, but are beginning to clear well inland, and the sky should become mostly clear except in the far SE. Winds will be generally be light and variable overnight, then becoming N-NW Friday morning as modest pressure rises move in from the W. An upper level trough will lead to some increase in clouds Fri aftn, but all CIGs will remain VFR. Winds likely back to more of a westerly direction at 5-10 kt Fri aftn, then shift to the N Friday evening as a weak cold front drops S of the area.

VFR and dry conditions will prevail through the weekend into next week, with no notable flight restrictions and rain or snow makers in the forecast at this time.

MARINE
As of 245 AM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

- There is another chance for light freezing spray Friday night into Saturday morning.

- Sub-SCA conditions are expected into the early part of the weekend. There is a chance for some short-lived SCAs on the bay and northern coastal waters with S-SW winds Saturday night, before more benign boating conditions return for Sunday and Monday.

Relatively benign boating conditions across the region this morning. Winds were W-SW 5-10 kt. Seas 2-3 ft w/ 1-2 ft waves on the bay, rivers, and sound. High pressure will continue to build across the gulf coast region, with winds becoming NNW. A weak front crosses the area tonight, with winds to increase to ~10-15 kt (w/ occasional gusts to 20 kt) around and after midnight tonight- early Sat AM. Wind probabilities for sustained 18 kt winds remain quite low, and have held winds aob 15 kt.
Some light freezing spray is possible during this period, but not anticipated to require any headlines at this time.

Winds become variable and quickly decrease to below 10 kt during the day on Sat as transient high pressure crosses into the region, before pushing offshore of the Carolina coast toward Bermuda Sunday into Monday. There is a slightly better shot at SCAs over the bay in SSW flow Saturday night into early Sunday, owing to tightening pressure gradient on the back side of the high. Local wind probs for sustained 18 kt winds in the upper bay have increased slightly to 30-40% on the bay Sat night, with slightly higher probs for 25 kt gusts across the northern coastal waters. Still a bit soon for SCA headlines at this point, but worth monitoring. Any SCA would be quite brief, with persistent W-SW setting up Sunday through Monday night/Tue with high pressure in place offshore in the western Atlantic. Seas are expected to remain below 5 ft through at least next Monday.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 245 AM EST Friday...

Low water levels are gradually returning closer to normal as expected this morning, with further recovery expected through tonight. We will therefore allow the Low Water Advisory to expire on time at 4 AM EST.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Low Water Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for ANZ633.