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ANZ630 Chesapeake Bay From Smith Point To Windmill Point Va- 955 Pm Est Sat Dec 2 2023
.dense fog advisory in effect until 7 am est Sunday...
Overnight..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. Showers. Areas of dense fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Sun..S winds 10 kt, becoming sw late. Waves 1 foot. Areas of dense fog in the morning. Patchy fog early in the afternoon. Showers until late afternoon, then a chance of showers late. Vsby 1 nm or less in the morning.
Sun night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers in the evening. Patchy fog in the evening.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Mon night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tue..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 foot. A chance of rain.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of rain in the morning.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves around 3 ft.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.

ANZ600 955 Pm Est Sat Dec 2 2023
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers..
high pressure will remain centered offshore through early Sunday. A warm front will slowly lift north through the area tonight, as weak low pressure also lifts northeast along the boundary. Meanwhile, low pressure tracks across the great lakes region tonight into Sunday, pushing a cold front across the region later Sunday into Monday.

FXUS61 KAKQ 030256 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 956 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

SYNOPSIS
A chance for more rain is expected tonight through Sunday morning, as a weak area of low pressure slowly moves through the region. Mainly dry weather is expected for Sunday night through Tuesday. Cooler weather is expected on Wednesday and Thursday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
As of 955 PM EST Saturday...

Widespread fog continues to spread across the area overnight.
Fog continues to increase in coverage and density with locally dense fog. Have expanded Dense Fog Advisory for S VA, NE NC, E VA, and all of the Eastern Shore until 4 AM. Model guidance suggests this may need to be extended both spatially and temporarily through the night, but will wait to see how obs trend before doing so. A SPS further inland continues where occasional locally dense fog may occur. Marine Dense fog is also expected to continue tonight which will push onshore.

Temps as of 955 PM ranged from the low-mid 50s NW to the mid 60s SE with dew points essentially the same as temps. Lows tonight will range through the 50s. A moist airmass continues to lift into the area overnight as a warm front located across SE VA slowly lifts N into Sun morning to around RIC by daybreak.
Meanwhile, low pressure will track NE from the Gulf coast states/ TN Valley into the Mid Atlantic from this evening- Sun morning, bringing widespread showers across the FA (especially N/NW) tonight. The best chance of rain is between 10 PM and 7 AM, and have maintained likely to categorical PoPs (60-80%).
There will be a small amount of instability even during the night, which may result in brief heavy downpours (as PWs climb to 1.4-1.7"). QPFs through tonight are around 0.5" from LKU-SBY, between 0.2-0.4" from FVX-RIC- WAL, and 0.1-0.3" in far SE VA/NE NC.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 300 PM EST Saturday...

Low pressure will push NNE of the area on Sun followed by a cold frontal passage Sun evening into Sun night. Showers are possible during the first part of the day, and any lingering precipitation ends from west-east during the latter part of the day. Milder temps are expected again on Sun, as highs will range from the mid 60s to lower 70s (lower 60s NW). Also, some clearing is expected from NW to SE later in the aftn. Partly cloudy Sun night with lows ranging through the 40s. A shortwave trough will approach from the W Mon, before tracking over the local area Mon evening. Moisture will be limited, but the trough is rather vigorous, so at least an increase in clouds are expected, with just an isolated shower possible during the aftn/evening. For now, have kept PoPs aob 14%. Highs will still be above normal Mon, ranging from the mid 50s-lower 60s. Becoming clear or mostly clear Mon night with lows ranging through the 30s.
Dry/seasonable wx is expected on Tue, as high pressure builds across the region. Forecast highs are in the 50s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 300 PM EST Saturday...

Another potent shortwave trough will swing across the region Tue night into early Wed aftn, and could produce isolated to scattered showers (mainly east of I-95). Becoming breezy with NNW winds by Wed aftn as the pressure gradient tightens on the back side of low pressure deepening well offshore. Highs Wed in the upper 40s-lower 50s with partly to mostly cloudy skies. Lingering showers quickly push offshore by early Wed evening as high pressure will build into and over the region from Wed night-Thu night. The high then slides off the Mid-Atlantic/SE Coast on Fri (and will remain offshore on Sat). Lows Wed night in the mid 20s-lower 30s. Highs Thu mainly in the mid-upper 40s. Lows Thu night in the lower-mid 30s in most areas. Milder by Fri/Sat with highs in the mid 50s-lower 60s.

AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 715 PM EST Saturday...

IFR/LIFR CIGs and VIS continue to overspread the area this evening into tonight, impacting all terminals. ECG is the lowest confidence as they are S of a warm front with higher CIGs to the S this evening. Even so, they will likely drop to IFR/LIFR from CIGs and/or VIS from fog. Fog is expected to be widespread overnight with VIS 0.25-1SM. Locally dense fog is also possible with VIS less than 0.25SM. Fog lifts from S to N late tonight into Sun morning as the warm front lifts N.
However, fog may linger over the Eastern Shore into the early afternoon. CIGs will be slower to lift with IFR/LIFR CIGs lingering into the early afternoon for most of the area and until the evening at SBY. SCT light showers will continue to expand in coverage overnight with showers likely at all terminals (best chance N). QPF looks to be light though with any moderate showers likely N of RIC. Showers taper off from SW to NE Sun.

MARINE
As of 300 PM EST Saturday...

Dense fog is expected across all the waters through this evening and overnight. A marine dense fog advisory has issued through 12Z/7 AM EST Sunday, with visibility reductions below 1 NM, and occasionally as low as 1/4 NM, possible through this time.

Otherwise, rather benign conditions on the marine front this afternoon with light winds. Surface analysis shows a stationary boundary draped SW-NE through the Chesapeake Bay, which is causing the wind direction to be fairly variable. The front, along with a weak area of low pressure, eventually lift N through the area late tonight. Winds N of Cape Charles will likely turn to the E-SE at ~5- 10 kt after ~00Z. Some hi-res guidance shows the potential for a brief period of elevated easterly winds (15-20 kt) N of Chincoteague right around 10-12Z. However, confidence is low regarding this scenario. Winds gradually shift to the S-SW at 10-15 kt for all marine areas Sunday afternoon as the front moves further N. A cold front then moves through the area Sunday night, turning winds to the NW. However, winds should stay ~10 kt through the day Monday before eventually increasing to 15-20 kt (highest over the ocean) Mon night/early Tues as a shortwave aloft slides through with stronger CAA. Most areas look to stay below SCA criteria, however, a brief period of SCAs are possible across the nrn coastal waters early Tues. Another (stronger) cold front will cross the area Wednesday.
SCAs look rather likely from Wed aftn into Thurs morning as winds become 20-25 kt with higher gusts.

Seas this aftn are 2-4 ft with waves in the Bay 1-2 ft. Similar wave/sea conditions are expected through the middle of next week.
Seas and waves then potentially increase to 3-6 ft and 2-3 ft, respectively, later Wed.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...Dense Fog Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for MDZ021>025.
NC...Dense Fog Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for NCZ012>017- 030>032-102.
VA...Dense Fog Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for VAZ065-077>079- 084>088-092-093-095>100-523>525.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for ANZ630>638-650- 652-654-656-658.

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Pungoteague Creek
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Sat -- 02:29 AM EST     1.45 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:00 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:42 AM EST     0.19 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:35 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 02:50 PM EST     1.75 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:44 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 09:37 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 09:41 PM EST     0.23 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Pungoteague Creek, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia, Tide feet

Chesconessex Creek
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:50 AM EST     1.72 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:00 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:59 AM EST     0.36 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:35 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 03:11 PM EST     2.08 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:44 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 09:36 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 09:58 PM EST     0.44 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Chesconessex Creek, Schooner Bay, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia, Tide feet

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