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ANZ630 Chesapeake Bay From Smith Point To Windmill Point Va- 915 Am Est Sat Dec 9 2023
.small craft advisory in effect from Sunday morning through Sunday evening...
.gale watch in effect from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon...
Rest of today..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tonight..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sun..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft. A chance of rain in the morning, then rain likely in the afternoon.
Sun night..S winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt, becoming nw 25 to 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt after midnight. Waves 3 to 4 ft. Rain.
Mon..NW winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt, diminishing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt in the afternoon. Waves 4 to 5 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot.
Tue night..SW winds 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Waves 1 foot.
Wed..NW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wed night..N winds 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.

ANZ600 915 Am Est Sat Dec 9 2023
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers..
high pressure remains offshore today. A strong cold front will approach from the west late tonight through Sunday, bringing strong southerly winds to the local waters. The front will cross the region Sunday night, with strong winds shifting to the northwest by early Monday. High pressure builds in from the west Monday night into Tuesday.

FXUS61 KAKQ 091137 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 637 AM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will be center off the coast today. A strong frontal system will impact the region Sunday into early Monday morning. High pressure builds back into the region early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 330 AM EST Saturday...

Remaining dry and turning milder as the high pressure becomes centered off the coast. A positively tilted upper trough will amplifying over the Mississippi River Valley today as a surface cold front slowly tracks east towards the Appalachian Mountains. Highs are forecast to be well into the 60s today with a SSW wind around 10 mph. In addition, dew points will rise into the upper 40s-mid 50s by late in the day. Temperatures will cool into the upper 50s this evening before slowly rising back into the 60s over night as a strong cold front approaches from the W. Expect party sunny skies for most of today, but clouds will increase during the late afternoon and into the evening hours.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 330 AM EST Saturday...

Not much change in the forecast for the storm system that will impact the region on Sunday. Still looks like the strong cold front, with a significant temperatures gradient, will approach from the west on Sunday, and move across the area Sunday evening- Sunday night. Meanwhile, the upper trough will continue to amplify on Sunday and eventually takes on a negative tilt as it approaches and crosses the area late Sunday night- early Monday morning. Anomalous high amounts of deep- layered moisture will advect into the area ahead of the system on Sunday, with PWs expected to surge to 1.50-1.75". There will be a strong southerly flow ahead of the front on Sunday (especially during the aftn/evening). Winds will be 15-25 mph with gusts of 30-40 mph. This will bring warm and moist air north into the area. Dew points are forecast to climb into the lower-mid 60s with temperatures rising into the upper 60s-lower 70s during the afternoon and evening.

Showers are likely during the morning, with numerous showers/isolated tstms expected during the aftn-early evening.
SBCAPE is forecasted to increase to 100-300 J/kg by late Sunday afternoon (highest across SE VA/NE NC). However, a strengthening LLJ may allow for strong to severe winds to mix down to the surface in the strongest cells as early as late aftn. However, the main severe threat will be between 6 PM-3 AM, as the sharp cold front crosses the area. The low-level wind fields will continue to strengthen during the evening-overnight in advance of the front, with 925mb winds potentially reaching 50-70 kt in areas E of I-95 by late evening. Not expecting temperatures/dew points to drop Sunday night ahead of the front with continued warm/moist advection and strong southerly flow.
As a result, we will continue to have a few hundred J/kg of surface-based instability in place until front passes by. A line of showers and tstms will accompany the front, and these will likely cause localized 45-65 mph wind gusts which will have the potential to down trees/power lines. In addition, a tornado or two cannot be ruled out. The best chance of a brief tornado or two will be across interior portions of SE VA/NE NC. Will have to watch if a secondary triple point low can form along the front as it moves across the area Sunday night (a couple of the models suggest this). If this occurs, localized backing of the sfc wind field may enhance the tornado threat near/just to the east of the low track.

In addition to the severe threat, widespread rainfall amounts of 1.5- 3.0" are expected from Sun-Sun night. Lastly, expect a very quick 15- 20 F temperature drop as winds abruptly turn to the NW following the FROPA. Also, winds may gust to 40-45 mph for a couple of hours in any given location (regardless of whether strong storms occur) after the front passes by. Stratiform rain will continue for a few hours early Mon AM behind the front as moisture wraps around the system as it exits and continues to strengthen. The precipitation is forecast to end by 3-5 AM west/5-8 AM east. Cannot completely rule out a few wet snowflakes mixing in closer to Charlottesville right before the pcpn ends. Lows are forecast to fall into the mid 30s-around 40F. Gusty NW winds to 25-40 mph (highest E) will persist through the night. Rapid clearing is expected on Monday with highs in the upper 40 to lower 50s. Breezy WNW winds are expected, with gusts averaging 25-35 mph.

High pressure will become centered over the area Monday night, bringing much quieter weather. Low temperatures will be in the lower to mid 20s inland and upper 20s to lower 30s near the coast.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 330 AM EST Friday...

Dry/seasonably cool wx is expected to continue through the end of next week. The upper-level flow will be mainly zonal during this time frame. Sfc high pressure will become centered over the area on Monday and will remain over the area through the middle of next week. A secondary area of high pressure will reinforce the dry and cool airmass for the second half of the week. Winds will be no higher than ~10 mph through the period with varying directions. Highs Tue- Fri will mainly be in the upper 40s-mid 50s with morning lows in the mid 20s to mid 30s.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 630 AM EST Saturday...

Mainly VFR conditions prevail through the 12z/09 TAF period.
Skies will remain mostly clear outside of high cloud cover (20-25kft AGL) through the day. Light SE to S winds are expected tonight (5 knots or less). Winds become SSW at 5-10 kt on Saturday afternoon. Clouds begin to move in from the west tonight as a cold front approaches. Ceiling will lower overnight. MVFR CIGs are expected at RIC before 12z Sunday, and after 12z Sun. for terminals east. Southerly winds will continue through the night.

Outlook: A strong cold front approaches from the west on Sunday, and crosses the terminals from Sunday evening-early Mon AM. Showers (and perhaps a few tstms) are likely during the day on Sunday, with widespread showers and a few tstms expected Sunday evening- Sunday night as the front comes through.
Precipitation will linger for a few hours following the FROPA (likely into early Mon AM). Sub-VFR conditions are likely from late Sun-early Mon AM. In addition, gusty S winds to 25-35 kt are likely ahead of the front, with gusty NW winds behind it.
There could be a brief (~2 hour) period of 40 kt gusts immediately following the FROPA. In addition, convection along/just ahead of the front could bring very brief 40-50 kt wind gusts to the terminals. VFR/dry on Mon with rapidly clearing skies. Breezy conditions continue on Monday with W-NW winds.

MARINE
As of 330 AM EST Saturday...

High pressure continues to move eastward and away from the region this morning. A filling/occluded area of low pressure is noted north of Lake Superior with a front extending to the south to another area of low pressure over Illinois. Aloft, an upper trough is noted over over the northern Plains with ridging in place over the eastern CONUS. Winds locally are SW around 10 kt with gusts to 15 kt. Waves in the Ches Bay are ~1 ft with seas 2-3 ft.

Southerly flow continues today, generally 10-15 kt into this evening and 15 to 20 kt by Sunday morning as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of the surface cold front. Winds are expected to strengthen further through the afternoon into the early evening with ~20 kt expected in the bay, rivers, and Currituck Sound and 25-30 kt offshore (highest N). 00z guidance shows a slightly faster progression of the front across the region but continues to highlight the northern coastal waters for the greatest potential for gale conditions in the pre-frontal southerly flow regime. Strong winds aloft combined with meager instability will likely result in some deeper convective elements along and ahead of the front which will be capable of mixing down locally stronger winds/gusts. The NAM/GFS are in good agreement showing an impressive pressure fall/rise couplet as secondary cyclogenesis develops along the front Sunday evening with the strongest winds expected to follow the frontal passage as pressure quickly rises. NW winds ~30 kt with gusts 35 to 40 kt are likely for the Ches Bay, lower James River, and Currituck Sound behind the front. Winds will be slightly lower 25-30 kt with gusts 35 kt for the upper rivers. Offshore, NW winds build to 30-35 kt with gusts 40-45 kt with higher magnitude/confidence over the northern waters (closer to the track of rapidly deepening secondary low pressure). High pressure builds into the region behind the front with winds slowly diminishing through the day on Monday. Waves and seas build to 2-4 ft and 4-7 ft on Sunday, eventually building to 5-8 ft S and 7-11 ft N overnight.
Waves drop below SCA criteria by Monday evening with seas remaining elevated into early Tuesday morning. Additionally, will likely need a High Surf Advisory for the MD Eastern Shore, potentially extending S to Accomack, VA Sun night due to nearshore breaking waves around 8 ft.

Headline wise, will leave Gale Watches in place with 24-36 hours before expected onset. Have introduced ramp-up SCA headlines for the coastal waters and Ches Bay starting Sunday morning with the rivers and Currituck Sound going into effect during the afternoon. Will certainly need to issue additional SCA headlines as Gales come down on Monday.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM EST Sunday for ANZ630.
Gale Watch from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon for ANZ630.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to 1 AM EST Monday for ANZ631-632-634.
Gale Watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning for ANZ631-632-634-638.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Sunday to 1 AM EST Monday for ANZ633-638.
Gale Watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning for ANZ633-635>637.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Sunday to 1 AM EST Monday for ANZ635>637.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 4 PM EST Sunday for ANZ650- 652.
Gale Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon for ANZ650-652.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday for ANZ654- 656-658.
Gale Watch from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon for ANZ654-656-658.

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Pungoteague Creek
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Sat -- 02:14 AM EST     0.15 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:34 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:06 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:26 AM EST     1.78 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:22 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 03:10 PM EST     0.23 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:44 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 08:40 PM EST     1.49 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Pungoteague Creek, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia, Tide feet

Chesconessex Creek
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:31 AM EST     0.27 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:34 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:06 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:47 AM EST     2.12 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:21 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 03:27 PM EST     0.43 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:44 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 09:01 PM EST     1.77 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Chesconessex Creek, Schooner Bay, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia, Tide feet

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