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ANZ630 Chesapeake Bay From Smith Point To Windmill Point Va- 650 Pm Est Mon Dec 4 2023
.small craft advisory in effect from midnight tonight to 6 am est Tuesday...
Tonight..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Tue..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft, subsiding to 1 foot in the afternoon.
Tue night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers after midnight.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat..SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sat night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 foot, building to 2 to 3 ft after midnight. A chance of showers after midnight.

ANZ600 650 Pm Est Mon Dec 4 2023
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers..
high pressure builds over the area through midweek. Quick-moving low pressure and its associated strong cold front crosses the area Wednesday into Wednesday night, with high pressure rebuilding over the area for late week.

FXUS61 KAKQ 042331 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 631 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

SYNOPSIS
A weak upper trough will swing across the region this evening.
High pressure will return for later tonight through Tuesday afternoon. A stronger upper trough will swing into and across the area late Tuesday night into Wednesday evening, then high pressure will build in for Wednesday night and Thursday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
As of 630 PM EST Monday...

Scattered clouds (due to a shortwave) continue over the area for the next couple of hours before moving offshore. Any light returns on the radar are likely not making it to the ground given dew points in the mid 30s and temps in the mid-upper 40s.
Behind these clouds, clear skies and light/calm winds are expected overnight as high pressure builds into the area. Lows tonight in the low-mid 30s for most and upper 30s to lower 40s near/along the coast.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 300 PM EST Monday...

Dry wx and slightly below normal temps are expected on Tue, as high pressure builds across the region. Highs will be mainly in the lower to mid 50s. Sunny to start the day, but clouds will be on the increase from the NW in advance of our next shortwave (with cloud bases potentially lowering to 8-12kft AGL by late aftn).

That next (deeper) shortwave trough will approach from the NW Tue night, and cross the area Wed into early Wed evening. Shower chances will arrive from the northwest by 10 PM-2 AM Tue night/early Wed AM, with a 20-40% PoP across much of the region (for rain showers)
during the remainder of the morning. Precipitation ends from NW-SE Wed aftn-early evening as the shortwave moves to our SE. While 1000- 500mb thicknesses will be ~530dm, the lowest ~2000ft appear to be too warm for any wintry precipitation to reach the ground.
Regardless, it will be cool and cloudy for much of the day, with highs only rising into the mid to upper 40s after starting in the mid 30s-lower 40s during the morning. Total QPFs are generally less than 0.10". Drying out (and colder) Wed night with diminishing winds inland, as high pressure builds in from the west. Lows Wed night in the mid to upper 20s inland/Piedmont, with lower to mid 30s near the immediate coast. Cool, mostly sunny, and dry on Thursday with light winds as high pressure settles over the area. Forecast highs are in the mid 40s-50F.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 300 PM EST Monday...

The surface high slides off the Mid Atlantic/SE Coast Thu night- early Fri before moving well out to sea by the weekend. Dry wx will prevail through Sat. However, during the second half of the weekend, widespread precipitation appears increasingly likely as a strong low pressure system quickly deepens as it tracks well to our NW. This feature will drag a cold front through the area on Sunday or Sunday night. At this time, there are significant differences between the global models with respect to track/timing of the system. For now, will go with likely (60%) PoPs for showers area-wide from Sun-Sun evening. As we get closer, specifics will become more clear. In addition to the showers, breezy south winds are possible in advance of the cold front. Lows Thu night in the lower to mid 30s in most areas. Increasingly milder from Fri through the weekend. Highs in the mid-upper 50s Fri, and in the lower to mid 60s Sat, and lower- upper 60s on Sun.

AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 625 PM EST Monday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 00z taf period. SCT clouds move through the area over the next couple of hours (~12000 ft CIGs) before clear skies into Tue afternoon. On Tue, cloud cover increases from NW to SE during the afternoon and evening as a clipper system approaches with CIGs gradually lowering.
Winds remain generally light/variable tonight, increasing to 5-7 kt at ORF after midnight. Winds become N and eventually NE Tues at <7 kt as high pressure lingers overhead.

Outlook: An upper level trough will bring clouds (MVFR and potentially some IFR CIGs) and scattered showers Tue evening into early Wed afternoon.

MARINE
As of 300 PM EST Monday...

A weak pressure gradient exists across the area this afternoon, leading to light and variable winds across the waters. Seas are generally 2-3 ft w/ waves in the Bay 1 ft or less. A surge of cooler and drier air is expected to push S late tonight with winds increasing to 15-20 kt over the Chesapeake Bay and northern coastal waters. Gusts up to 25 kt will be possible, especially N of Windmill Point in the Bay and N of Parramore Island over the ocean. A small craft advisory has been issued from 05z-11z Tuesday from Windmill Point to Smith Point in the Chesapeake Bay. Further S, occasional gusts to 20-25 kt will also be possible, but wind probs are much lower here so will continue to monitor if a SCA eventually becomes necessary. Winds will diminish heading into Tues aftn as weak high pressure sits overhead. A stronger upper-level disturbance will dive SE towards the area Tues night-Wed, initiating low pressure formation off the Carolina coast. Winds turn N-NE early Wed at ~10 kt and then eventually turn NNW-NW at 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt later Wed into Thurs morning as the low moves further offshore and the pressure gradient tightens. Small craft advisories are likely during this period, with a short period of gale-force gusts possible over the coastal waters S of the NC/VA border. Given the marginal and short duration nature, decided to hold off on a gale watch at this time (local wind probs are 25-50% for 34 kt gusts). Winds gradually turn to the SW and become ~10 kt Thursday aftn, increasing to 10-20 kt Thursday night. Uncertainty remains heading into the weekend as a dynamic system looks to approach the region, with elevated southerly winds ahead of the cold front and elevated westerly/northerly winds behind the front Sunday through Monday. At least SCA conditions are probable, but significant timing differences remain among the guidance.

Waves in the Bay are expected to increase to 2-3 ft tonight with the surge in NNW winds, before diminishing to ~1 ft later Tues. Seas are expected to remain 2-3 ft through early Wed. Seas will increase quickly to 4-6 ft (3 ft nearshore) Wed aftn-early Thurs, with waves in the Bay increasing to 2-4 ft during this period. 3-4 ft seas and 1-2 ft waves are expected until ~Sat.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ630.

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Onancock
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Mon -- 04:39 AM EST     1.49 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:02 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:58 AM EST     0.40 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:28 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 04:44 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 04:53 PM EST     1.66 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:36 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:44 PM EST     0.32 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Onancock, Onancock Creek, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia, Tide feet

Folly Creek
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Mon -- 01:42 AM EST     2.61 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:01 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:05 AM EST     0.80 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:28 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 01:40 PM EST     2.90 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:43 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:03 PM EST     0.52 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:35 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Folly Creek, Metompkin Inlet, Virginia, Tide feet

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