Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Onancock, VA
May 15, 2024 3:48 PM EDT (19:48 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:48 AM Sunset 8:08 PM Moonrise 11:42 AM Moonset 1:11 AM |
ANZ630 Chesapeake Bay From Smith Point To Windmill Point Va- 322 Pm Edt Wed May 15 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through Thursday afternoon - .
Through 7 pm - N winds 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A slight chance of showers.
Tonight - N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Thu - N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night - N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Fri - N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming ne 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers after midnight.
Sat - SE winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Sat night - E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 foot. Showers likely.
Sun - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Sun night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers in the evening.
ANZ600 322 Pm Edt Wed May 15 2024
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
a low pressure system lingers just offshore into Thursday, moving well offshore Friday through the weekend. The next system may move in this weekend with another round of elevated winds and seas.
a low pressure system lingers just offshore into Thursday, moving well offshore Friday through the weekend. The next system may move in this weekend with another round of elevated winds and seas.
FXUS61 KAKQ 151858 AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 258 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024
SYNOPSIS
Scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms continue today, mainly in the late afternoon and evening. Mainly dry conditions prevail Thursday through Friday afternoon, but showers and storms return Friday night through the weekend.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
As of 1155 AM EDT Wednesday...
Key Messages:
- Isolated/widely scattered showers for most of the area this aftn/evening.
- Any thunderstorms are likely to stay confined to NE NC and fat southern VA from late aftn into the evening.
- Temperatures will struggle to get out of the 60s across the northern 1/2 of the area due to low cloud cover, while it will warm to the upper 70s/ near 80 degrees F along the Albemarle Sound in NE NC.
Sfc low pressure has deepened to near 1000 mb and is now located off the MD coast (just to the ESE of Ocean City). A trough aloft is still to our west (over the OH/TN Valley), with SW flow aloft over the local area. Mainly just spotty light showers or drizzle across the region as of the noon hour, with temperatures mostly in the 60s under low clouds. It is into the lower 70s across portions of NE NC with variably cloudy skies, and through the aftn, as the sfc low moves farther offshore, expect to see ML CAPE values to around 500 J/Kg over NE NC and perhaps into far southern VA near the NC border. In addition, we will see cooling temps aloft as the upper trough approaches so additional showers are expected later this aftn and evening, with the highest PoPs over the S. PoPs rise to 40-60% across the S/SW, with 20-40% elsewhere by late aftn.
The sfc low will likely linger off the DE/NJ coast tonight, with widespread low cloud cover expected but with mainly dry wx after 10- 11 PM (as lingering showers/tstms dissipate with the loss of daytime heating). Lows generally in the upper 50s-60F.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 315 AM EDT Wednesday...
Key Message:
- Drying out on Thursday, though clouds and a few spotty showers may persist. Mainly dry Friday.
The sfc low will likely linger offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast through a good part of Thursday. A bit of a transition day weatherwise for Thursday. Drier conditions overall in subsidence behind the departing trough, though low clouds may linger near the coast through the morning (and potentially longer on the eastern shore). We should see a decent amount of clearing inland by the later aftn. Temps rise to the upper 60s on the eastern shore with mid 70s W of the Bay (possibly upper 70s across the far SW).
There may be just enough instability for an isolated shower inland during the aftn/early evening. Lows Thu night range from the mid 50s- 60F with dry wx expected.
Shortwave ridging and weak sfc high pressure briefly move over the area on Friday before moving offshore Friday evening. The flow will be onshore so temps near the coast will not get higher than the lower 70s (and it likely stays in the mid-upper 60s near the Atlantic coast of MD). On the other hand, temps should top out near 80F inland. Another system approaches late on Friday with a few showers (and maybe a tstm) possible in the Piedmont late in the day, though most areas will stay dry until after 00z/8 PM Friday evening.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 315 AM EDT Wednesday...
Key Messages:
- Increasing chances for showers and storms Friday night and especially over the weekend.
- Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms are likely from Saturday through Saturday night, with at least scattered showers possible on Sunday.
- Dry weather returns early next week.
Better rain chances arrive over the weekend as another low pressure system approaches from the WSW. Scattered showers are possible Saturday morning (especially W), with widespread showers and a few thunderstorms likely from Saturday afternoon through Saturday night.
Not sure how much severe wx we get, but locally heavy rain/localized flooding is definitely a possibility. PWs will once again rise to 1.7-1.8" on Saturday as the system arrives. In addition, the EPS has a 30-50% chc of at least 1" of rain across the area from Saturday through Saturday night. Lingering showers are possible on the back side of the system on Sunday. Temps remain near seasonal averages late this week into the weekend, and Sunday will likely be the coolest day of the period (it may struggle to get out of the 60s across parts of the area). Mainly dry wx returns early next week with temps warming to slightly above average.
AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 620 AM EDT Wednesday...
IFR CIGs prevail at all terminals except for ORF/ECG where it is borderline MVFR/IFR. IFR CIGs should prevail through late morning-midday before improving to MVFR at all sites except SBY (which will likely remain IFR through the period). Could even see a period of VFR this aftn at ECG. Drizzle with MVFR VSBYs is possible this morning at RIC/SBY before dissipating. Additional showers are possible this aftn/evening (though they will likely be light), with a slight chc of a tstm at ECG. CIGs fall back to MVFR at all sites this evening-tonight with a period or two of IFR possible at RIC overnight.
Outlook: Conditions gradually improve Thursday and Friday (though low clouds may prevail at SBY through much of Thu).
Another low pressure system will bring showers, a chc of tstms, and degraded flight conditions Friday night into Saturday, with at least a chc for showers/tstms on Sunday.
MARINE
As of 245 PM EDT Wednesday...
Key Messages:
- Elevated winds will continue into Thursday as low pressure meanders offshore. SCAs remain in effect.
- Lighter winds finally return for Friday/Saturday.
- Winds and seas may increase again this weekend as the next system moves through.
The surface low pressure continues to slide across our northern waters and offshore of the Maryland Eastern Shore. It created periods of 34+ kt gusts across the north through mid-day, but winds have now subsided back into SCA criteria. In the Bay and rest of the coastal waters, winds are mostly northwesterly at 12-18kt with gusts to 20-25kt. Guidance continues to indicate winds increasing tonight into Thursday on the backside of the low as it lingers just offshore. SCAs have been extended for the Bay and lower James until Thursday at 21Z/6pm. Winds will be gusty across the coastal waters too, but should remain below their SCA criteria; however, 5+ ft waves will linger into Thursday, particularly across the north.
Right now, the SCAs for the coastal waters from Cape Charles to Currituck expire at 4pm today due to seas subsiding to 3-4ft and winds expected to remain below SCA thresholds. The SCA from Parramore Island to Cape Charles will drop off at 1AM as seas lower, with the northern tier holding onto their SCA until Thursday afternoon as those 5+ ft seas linger a bit longer. Winds will subside late Thursday as the low pressure finally drifts further southeast, likely allowing all SCAs to end.
Lighter (~10 kt) northeast or east winds are expected Friday afternoon through Saturday. Seas also likely drop to 3-4 ft. Another low pressure system crosses the area Sunday with winds potentially increasing again. Model guidance differs with respect to the position of the low. The ECMWF brings the system and elevated winds in earlier on Saturday, while the GFS waits until Sunday into Monday for the elevated conditions to arrive. Currently leaning towards the ECMWF, but will continue to monitor.
HYDROLOGY
As of 1145 AM EDT Wednesday...
Have added Flood Warnings for Rawlings and Stony Creek along the Nottoway river for minor flooding expected to begin this evening and lasting into Fri (late Fri/early Sat at Stony Creek).
The Flood Warning for Allen Creek near Boydton remains in effect, and that point should fall below flood stage later today.
The Meherrin River near Lawrenceville will very likely exceed minor flood stage this evening-tonight, as the Meherrin near South Hill is cresting above 26 ft. Went ahead and issued a Flood Warning for Lawrenceville.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ630>632- 634-638.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ650-652.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ654.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ656- 658.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 258 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024
SYNOPSIS
Scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms continue today, mainly in the late afternoon and evening. Mainly dry conditions prevail Thursday through Friday afternoon, but showers and storms return Friday night through the weekend.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
As of 1155 AM EDT Wednesday...
Key Messages:
- Isolated/widely scattered showers for most of the area this aftn/evening.
- Any thunderstorms are likely to stay confined to NE NC and fat southern VA from late aftn into the evening.
- Temperatures will struggle to get out of the 60s across the northern 1/2 of the area due to low cloud cover, while it will warm to the upper 70s/ near 80 degrees F along the Albemarle Sound in NE NC.
Sfc low pressure has deepened to near 1000 mb and is now located off the MD coast (just to the ESE of Ocean City). A trough aloft is still to our west (over the OH/TN Valley), with SW flow aloft over the local area. Mainly just spotty light showers or drizzle across the region as of the noon hour, with temperatures mostly in the 60s under low clouds. It is into the lower 70s across portions of NE NC with variably cloudy skies, and through the aftn, as the sfc low moves farther offshore, expect to see ML CAPE values to around 500 J/Kg over NE NC and perhaps into far southern VA near the NC border. In addition, we will see cooling temps aloft as the upper trough approaches so additional showers are expected later this aftn and evening, with the highest PoPs over the S. PoPs rise to 40-60% across the S/SW, with 20-40% elsewhere by late aftn.
The sfc low will likely linger off the DE/NJ coast tonight, with widespread low cloud cover expected but with mainly dry wx after 10- 11 PM (as lingering showers/tstms dissipate with the loss of daytime heating). Lows generally in the upper 50s-60F.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 315 AM EDT Wednesday...
Key Message:
- Drying out on Thursday, though clouds and a few spotty showers may persist. Mainly dry Friday.
The sfc low will likely linger offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast through a good part of Thursday. A bit of a transition day weatherwise for Thursday. Drier conditions overall in subsidence behind the departing trough, though low clouds may linger near the coast through the morning (and potentially longer on the eastern shore). We should see a decent amount of clearing inland by the later aftn. Temps rise to the upper 60s on the eastern shore with mid 70s W of the Bay (possibly upper 70s across the far SW).
There may be just enough instability for an isolated shower inland during the aftn/early evening. Lows Thu night range from the mid 50s- 60F with dry wx expected.
Shortwave ridging and weak sfc high pressure briefly move over the area on Friday before moving offshore Friday evening. The flow will be onshore so temps near the coast will not get higher than the lower 70s (and it likely stays in the mid-upper 60s near the Atlantic coast of MD). On the other hand, temps should top out near 80F inland. Another system approaches late on Friday with a few showers (and maybe a tstm) possible in the Piedmont late in the day, though most areas will stay dry until after 00z/8 PM Friday evening.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 315 AM EDT Wednesday...
Key Messages:
- Increasing chances for showers and storms Friday night and especially over the weekend.
- Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms are likely from Saturday through Saturday night, with at least scattered showers possible on Sunday.
- Dry weather returns early next week.
Better rain chances arrive over the weekend as another low pressure system approaches from the WSW. Scattered showers are possible Saturday morning (especially W), with widespread showers and a few thunderstorms likely from Saturday afternoon through Saturday night.
Not sure how much severe wx we get, but locally heavy rain/localized flooding is definitely a possibility. PWs will once again rise to 1.7-1.8" on Saturday as the system arrives. In addition, the EPS has a 30-50% chc of at least 1" of rain across the area from Saturday through Saturday night. Lingering showers are possible on the back side of the system on Sunday. Temps remain near seasonal averages late this week into the weekend, and Sunday will likely be the coolest day of the period (it may struggle to get out of the 60s across parts of the area). Mainly dry wx returns early next week with temps warming to slightly above average.
AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 620 AM EDT Wednesday...
IFR CIGs prevail at all terminals except for ORF/ECG where it is borderline MVFR/IFR. IFR CIGs should prevail through late morning-midday before improving to MVFR at all sites except SBY (which will likely remain IFR through the period). Could even see a period of VFR this aftn at ECG. Drizzle with MVFR VSBYs is possible this morning at RIC/SBY before dissipating. Additional showers are possible this aftn/evening (though they will likely be light), with a slight chc of a tstm at ECG. CIGs fall back to MVFR at all sites this evening-tonight with a period or two of IFR possible at RIC overnight.
Outlook: Conditions gradually improve Thursday and Friday (though low clouds may prevail at SBY through much of Thu).
Another low pressure system will bring showers, a chc of tstms, and degraded flight conditions Friday night into Saturday, with at least a chc for showers/tstms on Sunday.
MARINE
As of 245 PM EDT Wednesday...
Key Messages:
- Elevated winds will continue into Thursday as low pressure meanders offshore. SCAs remain in effect.
- Lighter winds finally return for Friday/Saturday.
- Winds and seas may increase again this weekend as the next system moves through.
The surface low pressure continues to slide across our northern waters and offshore of the Maryland Eastern Shore. It created periods of 34+ kt gusts across the north through mid-day, but winds have now subsided back into SCA criteria. In the Bay and rest of the coastal waters, winds are mostly northwesterly at 12-18kt with gusts to 20-25kt. Guidance continues to indicate winds increasing tonight into Thursday on the backside of the low as it lingers just offshore. SCAs have been extended for the Bay and lower James until Thursday at 21Z/6pm. Winds will be gusty across the coastal waters too, but should remain below their SCA criteria; however, 5+ ft waves will linger into Thursday, particularly across the north.
Right now, the SCAs for the coastal waters from Cape Charles to Currituck expire at 4pm today due to seas subsiding to 3-4ft and winds expected to remain below SCA thresholds. The SCA from Parramore Island to Cape Charles will drop off at 1AM as seas lower, with the northern tier holding onto their SCA until Thursday afternoon as those 5+ ft seas linger a bit longer. Winds will subside late Thursday as the low pressure finally drifts further southeast, likely allowing all SCAs to end.
Lighter (~10 kt) northeast or east winds are expected Friday afternoon through Saturday. Seas also likely drop to 3-4 ft. Another low pressure system crosses the area Sunday with winds potentially increasing again. Model guidance differs with respect to the position of the low. The ECMWF brings the system and elevated winds in earlier on Saturday, while the GFS waits until Sunday into Monday for the elevated conditions to arrive. Currently leaning towards the ECMWF, but will continue to monitor.
HYDROLOGY
As of 1145 AM EDT Wednesday...
Have added Flood Warnings for Rawlings and Stony Creek along the Nottoway river for minor flooding expected to begin this evening and lasting into Fri (late Fri/early Sat at Stony Creek).
The Flood Warning for Allen Creek near Boydton remains in effect, and that point should fall below flood stage later today.
The Meherrin River near Lawrenceville will very likely exceed minor flood stage this evening-tonight, as the Meherrin near South Hill is cresting above 26 ft. Went ahead and issued a Flood Warning for Lawrenceville.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ630>632- 634-638.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ650-652.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ654.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ656- 658.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA | 8 mi | 48 min | NW 4.1G | 69°F | 65°F | 29.63 | ||
| RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA | 19 mi | 48 min | NNW 18G | 29.70 | ||||
| 44089 | 23 mi | 52 min | 58°F | 6 ft | ||||
| 44058 - Stingray Point, VA | 29 mi | 36 min | N 12G | 64°F | 67°F | 2 ft | ||
| 44042 - Potomac, MD | 38 mi | 36 min | N 12G | 62°F | 64°F | |||
| BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD | 38 mi | 48 min | N 9.9G | 65°F | 66°F | 29.68 | ||
| KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA | 40 mi | 48 min | N 15G | 66°F | 66°F | 29.68 | ||
| LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA | 42 mi | 48 min | N 6G | 64°F | 67°F | 29.69 | ||
| 44072 | 45 mi | 42 min | NNW 9.7G | 66°F | 1 ft |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KMFV ACCOMACK COUNTY,VA | 5 sm | 13 min | NNW 10G17 | 10 sm | Overcast | 29.65 | ||||
| KTGI TANGIER ISLAND,VA | 15 sm | 13 min | NW 13 | 10 sm | Overcast | 66°F | 63°F | 88% | 29.67 | |
| KWAL WALLOPS FLIGHT FACILITY,VA | 21 sm | 18 min | NNW 10 | 10 sm | Overcast | 66°F | 61°F | 83% | 29.64 |
Tide / Current for Onancock, Onancock Creek, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Onancock
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:26 AM EDT 0.37 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:10 AM EDT Moonset
Wed -- 05:52 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 06:28 AM EDT 1.68 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:49 AM EDT First Quarter
Wed -- 12:41 PM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 01:12 PM EDT 0.37 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:01 PM EDT 1.59 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:06 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:26 AM EDT 0.37 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:10 AM EDT Moonset
Wed -- 05:52 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 06:28 AM EDT 1.68 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:49 AM EDT First Quarter
Wed -- 12:41 PM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 01:12 PM EDT 0.37 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:01 PM EDT 1.59 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:06 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Onancock, Onancock Creek, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.4 |
| 1 am |
| 0.4 |
| 2 am |
| 0.6 |
| 3 am |
| 0.9 |
| 4 am |
| 1.2 |
| 5 am |
| 1.5 |
| 6 am |
| 1.7 |
| 7 am |
| 1.7 |
| 8 am |
| 1.5 |
| 9 am |
| 1.3 |
| 10 am |
| 1 |
| 11 am |
| 0.7 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 4 pm |
| 1 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 7 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.8 |
Folly Creek
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:10 AM EDT Moonset
Wed -- 03:03 AM EDT 3.12 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:52 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 07:49 AM EDT First Quarter
Wed -- 09:32 AM EDT 0.63 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:40 PM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 03:51 PM EDT 2.87 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:05 PM EDT Sunset
Wed -- 09:40 PM EDT 1.00 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:10 AM EDT Moonset
Wed -- 03:03 AM EDT 3.12 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:52 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 07:49 AM EDT First Quarter
Wed -- 09:32 AM EDT 0.63 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:40 PM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 03:51 PM EDT 2.87 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:05 PM EDT Sunset
Wed -- 09:40 PM EDT 1.00 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Folly Creek, Metompkin Inlet, Virginia, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 2.2 |
| 1 am |
| 2.6 |
| 2 am |
| 3 |
| 3 am |
| 3.1 |
| 4 am |
| 2.9 |
| 5 am |
| 2.5 |
| 6 am |
| 1.9 |
| 7 am |
| 1.4 |
| 8 am |
| 1 |
| 9 am |
| 0.7 |
| 10 am |
| 0.7 |
| 11 am |
| 0.9 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.9 |
| 2 pm |
| 2.4 |
| 3 pm |
| 2.7 |
| 4 pm |
| 2.9 |
| 5 pm |
| 2.6 |
| 6 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 7 pm |
| 1.7 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 10 pm |
| 1 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.2 |
Dover AFB, DE,
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