Sunday, March7, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Onancock, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:23AMSunset 6:03PM Sunday March 7, 2021 7:57 PM EST (00:57 UTC) Moonrise 2:40AMMoonset 12:11PM Illumination 31% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ630 Chesapeake Bay From Smith Point To Windmill Point Va- 645 Pm Est Sun Mar 7 2021
Tonight..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 foot.
Mon..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Mon night..S winds 5 kt, becoming sw in the late evening and overnight. Waves 1 foot.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw in the late evening and overnight. Waves 1 foot.
Wed..S winds 5 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Wed night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Thu..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Fri night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
ANZ600 645 Pm Est Sun Mar 7 2021
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure settles over the area tonight, then becomes centered off the mid atlantic coast through the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Onancock, VA
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location: 37.72, -75.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 072358 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 658 PM EST Sun Mar 7 2021

SYNOPSIS. High pressure slowly builds into the area through tonight with dry weather continuing through much of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/. As of 345 PM EST Sunday .

Surface analysis depicts high pressure centered over Indiana and Kentucky. High pressure will continue to build into the area this afternoon and tonight before become centered over the FA Monday morning. Temps as of 3 PM ranged from the mid 40s to around 50F across the FA with dews in the teens for most (mid 20s for the immediate coastline). Mostly sunny this afternoon apart from a few cu in the piedmont and SE which will quickly dissipate after sunset. Mostly clear tonight with another near- ideal night for radiational cooling (especially inland). Lows are still forecast to be cold with low to mid 20s inland and mid to upper 20s along the coast. Isolated teens cannot be ruled out in typically colder locations such as Louisa.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 345 PM EST Sunday .

High pressure over the FA Mon will gradually drift off the SE coast late Mon into Tues and remain centered off the SE coast through Wed. This will allow for a warming trend through the week with highs ranging from the upper 50s W to the low to mid 50s E (upper 40s for the Eastern Shore) Mon, mid to upper 60s Tues, and upper 60s to low 70s Wed. Lows will also warm with low 30s Mon night and upper 30s to around 40F Tues night. Mostly sunny through Wed with cloud cover increasing late afternoon into the evening (especially N) Tues before moving offshore Tues night.

The early week will remain dry with dews in the teens for most (low 20s in the SE and along the coast) Mon, upper 20s to mid 30s Tues, and in the 30s Wed. Minimum RH values are expected to be 15-20% inland and 25-30% along the coast Mon, 20-28% inland and 30-35% along the coast Tues, and 25-30% inland (30-35% inland for the Eastern Shore) and 30-40% along the coast.

Winds will shift from NW 5-10 MPH (10-15 MPH over the Eastern Shore) Mon to SW Mon night, remain light (5-10 MPH) Tues, and then become S and increase to 10 to 15 MPH with gusts perhaps to 20 MPH over the Eastern Shore Wed. Although fuel moisture is drying out, generally light winds will help mitigate fire weather potential with Wed appearing to be the highest threat if winds are stronger than expected.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 315 PM EST Sunday .

The medium range period continues to feature dry and warm conditions Thu-Fri, with increasing confidence that the pattern breaks down by the upcoming weekend. Above average temperatures prevail Thu-Fri followed by cooler temperatures over the weekend.

The model consensus is strong for the Thu-Fri period, and therefore confidence in this portion of the forecast is high. An upper level ridge will be centered over the Gulf of Mexico, and the ridge axis will extend ENE to the Carolinas. At the sfc, strong high pressure will be centered just off the mid-Atlantic/SE US coast Wed night/Thu, eventually weakening and moving farther offshore Fri-Sat as a cold front tries to approach from the NW. with a W to SW flow aloft and a SW flow in the low levels, temperatures will warm well above avg (though not to record levels). Mostly clear Wed night with lows mostly in the 40s, followed by mostly sunny conditions Thu with highs into the low- mid 70s most areas (65-70F eastern shore). With the somewhat breezy/well mixed airmass on Thu, a continued potential for increased fire danger exists as dew pts tend to be slow to moderate this time of year (only into the upper 30s to mid 40s). with corresponding min RH values potentially down to ~30%. Mild with lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s Thu night, with another warm day likely on Fri. All of the deterministic 12Z/07 models keep a SW low level flow going as the upper ridge will be slow to break down. Thus, have highs forecast into the 70s again for all but sections of the eastern shore along the Bay/Ocean. Also have a dry forecast throughout with partly sunny skies N to mostly sunny S.

For the upcoming weekend, forecast confidences decreases significantly given a lot of model spread with regard to timing and spatial differences with the approaching cold front. At this point, the forecast remains close to the NBM which is a general compromise between the much slower (and more northerly position of the front per the GFS/GEFS) and the much faster (and more southerly position of the ECMWF). This yields a frontal passage during the day Sat, with highs ranging from around 70F across the south to the mid-upper 50s NE. This will almost certainly need to be fine tuned as we get closer in time. Given the uncertainty and with the front expected to lose moisture as it moves into the local area, PoPs will be capped at 20-30% and confined mainly to the day Sat and beyond. Lows in the 40s Sat night and highs Sun mostly ranging through the 50s. Skies will avg partly to mostly cloudy Sat-Sun.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 700 PM EST Sunday .

1032mb high pressure over the Eastern Great Lakes will build across the Mid-Atlantic region tonight into Monday morning, and then settle across the Southeast coast by Monday afternoon. This will result in a clear/sunny sky tonight into Monday. A light N to NE wind will become calm to very light later this evening through Monday morning, and then become NW 5-8kt later Monday morning, and then W by later afternoon.

High pressure will remain over the Southeast coast Monday night, and then will become centered off the Southeast coast Tuesday through Friday. VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the week along with a SW wind.

MARINE. As of 315 PM EST Sunday .

This afternoon, high pressure is centered over the area with low pressure located well to the southeast. Winds are generally N to NE around 10 to 15 knots. Seas are generally 1 to 3 feet, while waves in the Bay are 1 to 2 feet. High pressure slowly drifts further east through Monday and becomes centered offshore Tuesday through mid- week. Winds become S to SW Tuesday through much of the week. Sub-SCA conditions are forecast through mid-week.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . ERI/RMM NEAR TERM . RMM SHORT TERM . RMM LONG TERM . ERI/LKB AVIATION . AJZ MARINE . AJB


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 8 mi58 min Calm G 1 35°F 46°F1028.3 hPa (+1.5)
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 19 mi58 min N 12 G 13 1028.8 hPa (+1.4)
44089 23 mi62 min 41°F1 ft
44042 - Potomac, MD 38 mi34 min NE 1.9 G 1.9 39°F 40°F1028.7 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 38 mi58 min N 2.9 G 5.1 38°F 44°F1028.4 hPa (+1.4)
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 42 mi58 min E 4.1 G 5.1 41°F 43°F1028.3 hPa (+1.1)
44072 45 mi38 min E 7.8 G 12 40°F
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 45 mi58 min NE 8.9 G 9.9 41°F

Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Melfa / Accomack Airport, VA5 mi63 minNW 310.00 miFair34°F20°F56%1028.1 hPa
Wallops Flight Facility Airport, VA21 mi64 minE 310.00 miFair35°F26°F70%1028 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMFV

Wind History from MFV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalm--CalmCalmNE5NE5NE5NE4N5--N4CalmN4NW9NW8
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W7NW5N5NW5NW3--Calm
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Tide / Current Tables for Onancock, Onancock Creek, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Onancock
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Sun -- 12:28 AM EST     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:40 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:25 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:48 AM EST     1.85 feet High Tide
Sun -- 12:11 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 01:42 PM EST     0.13 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:02 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:14 PM EST     1.46 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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000.20.61.11.51.81.81.71.51.10.70.40.20.10.30.611.31.51.41.20.90.6

Tide / Current Tables for Folly Creek, Metompkin Inlet, Virginia
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Folly Creek
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Sun -- 02:40 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:17 AM EST     3.39 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:25 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:52 AM EST     0.20 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 12:11 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 03:52 PM EST     2.73 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:02 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 10:03 PM EST     0.32 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.92.53.13.43.32.82.11.40.90.40.20.511.62.22.62.72.521.410.50.30.5

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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