Sunrise 6:13 AM   Sunset 7:48 PM Moonrise 6:45 PM   Moonset 4:58 AM

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ANZ630 Chesapeake Bay From Smith Point To Windmill Point Va- 1010 Pm Edt Tue Apr 23 2024
.small craft advisory in effect until 10 am edt Wednesday - .
Overnight - S winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft. A slight chance of showers late. Wed - SW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt in the morning. Waves 3 to 4 ft, subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon. A chance of showers. Wed night - W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft. Thu - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Thu night - E winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot or less. Fri - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 foot or less. Fri night - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 foot or less, then around 2 ft after midnight. Sat - SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 foot or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Sat night - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.

ANZ600 1010 Pm Edt Tue Apr 23 2024
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
high pressure builds over the region through Tuesday. A weak, mainly dry cold front crosses the area Wednesday evening. High pressure builds north of the area to end the week.

FXUS61 KAKQ 232313 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 713 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will slide off the Carolina coast this evening. A weak cold front pushes through the region on Wednesday, with a few showers expected. Strong high pressure then builds from the eastern Great Lakes eastward to off the New England coast Thursday through Friday. A marked warming trend is then expected for Sunday into early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
As of 710 PM EDT Tuesday...

Overall, a very nice late-April day across the region will give way to a pleasant evening. Clouds will be on the increase from NW to SE overnight, becoming overcast N/NW prior to daybreak and partly cloudy across Hampton Roads by 12z Wed. It will also be milder tonight due to the increase in cloud cover and persistent south to southwest winds. Lows in the upr 40s to mid 50s. A cold front will be encroaching on N/NW portions of the FA by 12z Wed and models do show scattered isold/wdly showers developing.
Will have some low chc PoPs (~25-30%) across northern areas late tonight to account for this.

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 300 PM EDT Tuesday

Deterministic models remain in good agreement with an upper trough and main sfc low tracking east across Ontario/Quebec into northern New England on Wednesday, dragging its cold front through the local area during the late morning/aftn hours.
Most of the moisture with this system gets scoured out in the Appalachians to the west, as the low-level flow turns downslope (westerly) rather quickly. As such, only scattered light rain showers are anticipated. PoPs will only be 30-40%, with QPF on the order of a few hundredths to a tenth of an inch. Most of the shower activity will be over by 21z Wed or at most just slight chc PoPs. Highs in the low to mid 70s, except upper 60s for the immediate coast.

The front pushes SSE of the area Wed night, with sfc high pressure building eastward across the Great Lakes. There still seems enough mixing to keep temperatures from dropping off too much except over the far N/NW zones Wed night. Lows will be around 40F NW to around 50F SE. High pressure builds east from the eastern Great Lakes to off the New England coast Thu through Fri. Mostly sunny and cool Thu/Fri with highs ranging from the mid 50s to mid 60s (coolest along the coast Thu due to modest onshore flow).
Clear/mostly clear Thu night with lows ranging from the upr 30s to mid 40s. Patchy frost may be possible once again, mainly over the northern 1/2 of the FA from the piedmont to e-central VA and the eastern shore. A bit milder Fri night as the airmass modifies (but remains near to below normal) courtesy of persistent onshore flow. Lows Friday night range through the 40s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 300 PM EDT Tuesday...

The medium range forecast period begins with an amplifying upper ridge from the Gulf of Mexico to the upper midwest, expanding to the east coast over the weekend. This ridge continues to look a bit stronger than modeled earlier this week, which should keep the FA mainly dry through the weekend.
Temperatures trend back upward through the period; from near normal Sat (highs in the 70s, except 60s Eastern Shore), to above normal Sun-Mon (low-mid 80s inland, upper 70s to around 80 coast) as the upper ridge remains across the ern CONUS. The next system will approach Monday and Tuesday of next week.
Showers and isold storms will be possible with the frontal passage itself next Tuesday.

AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 710 PM EDT Tuesday...

Some high level clouds noted on satellite moving in from the west and northwest. Expect VFR conditions to prevail through the 00z TAF period. Winds will generally be SW through the evening and overnight with some gusts possible late tonight, especially at the coastal terminals. Showers will be possible ahead of an approaching cold front as it passes on Wednesday. Will limit mention to VCSH and -SHRA with flight categories remaining VFR.
Winds generally become westerly behind the frontal passage.

Dry/VFR conditions then persist for the late week period into the weekend.

MARINE
As of 335 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- SCAs remain in place for all local waters this evening into Wednesday.

- Another round of SCA conditions is likely late Wednesday night into Thursday behind a cold front.

Sfc low pressure is well offshore this afternoon with high pressure situated over the far SE CONUS. This high will slide east into the Atlantic overnight. Latest wind obs show SE winds of 10-15kt with a few sites in the lower bay already gusting to around 20kt. Latest buoy obs reflect seas of 2-3ft and waves 1-2ft. SCAs in the bay will start at 4pm with the other zones following later this evening.

As the high slides offshore, winds become S with gusts to 25 kt this evening into early tonight, becoming SW 15-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt late tonight ahead of a cold front. Winds diminish below SCA criteria by Wed afternoon. The cold front crosses the local waters Wed evening into early Wed night with winds becoming N/NE 15-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt late Wed night into Thu. Another round of SCAs will likely be needed for this surge. NE winds diminish Thu morning across the N waters but remain 15-20 kt across the S coastal waters (and potentially the lower bay/mouth of the bay) into the afternoon.
High pressure builds in across New England Thu night into Fri before gradually sliding off the coast Sat. Winds generally remain NE/E 10- 15 kt with occasional gusts to 20 kt into Sat, becoming SE late Sat and S Sat night into early next week.

Waves and seas build to 3-4 ft and 4-7 ft tonight. Seas gradually subside below 5 ft by Tue evening before building back to 4-6 ft late Tue night into Thu behind the cold front.

FIRE WEATHER
As of 300 PM EDT Tuesday...

An Increased Fire Danger Statement remains in effect until 7 PM for much of central/eastern VA and the lower MD Eastern Shore due to RH values in the 25-35% range, wind gusts to 20 mph and low fuel moisture levels.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 500 AM EDT Tuesday...

Winds become SE/S this afternoon into early tonight before becoming SW after midnight. As such, water will be pushed into the upper bay before being redirected towards the western coast of the Maryland Eastern Shore later tonight during high tide.
Tidal anomalies of 1-1.6 feet are expected which should allow Bishops Head and Cambridge to reach solidly into Minor Flood stage. As such, a Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for tonight's high tide across portions of the Maryland Eastern Shore. Winds diminish Wednesday along with tidal anomalies.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Wednesday for MDZ021>023.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ630-631- 633-635>638.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ632-634.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ650-652- 654.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ656-658.

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Onancock
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:15 AM EDT     2.05 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:58 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:57 AM EDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:36 PM EDT     1.81 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:52 PM EDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:45 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:46 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 07:51 PM EDT     Full Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Onancock, Onancock Creek, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia, Tide feet

Pungoteague Creek
Click for Map
Tue -- 05:58 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:25 AM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:06 PM EDT     1.71 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:20 PM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:45 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:46 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 07:51 PM EDT     Full Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Pungoteague Creek, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

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