Kilmarnock, VA Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kilmarnock, VA

June 18, 2024 12:57 AM EDT (04:57 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:43 AM   Sunset 8:29 PM
Moonrise 4:30 PM   Moonset 1:55 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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ANZ635 Rappahannock River From Urbanna To Windmill Point- 1244 Am Edt Tue Jun 18 2024

Rest of tonight - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt late. Waves 1 to 2 ft, diminishing to around 1 foot late.

Tue - S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se early in the afternoon, then increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt late. Waves around 1 foot, increasing to 1 to 2 ft late.

Tue night - SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming S 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft, diminishing to around 1 foot after midnight.

Wed - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.

Wed night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.

Thu - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.

Thu night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.

Fri - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.

Fri night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.

Sat - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.

Sat night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.

ANZ600 1244 Am Edt Tue Jun 18 2024

Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
high pressure remains offshore this week with generally benign marine conditions apart from elevated southeast winds later this afternoon and evening.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kilmarnock, VA
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Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 180140 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 940 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure drifts off the New England coast through midweek.
A very warm and dry pattern then looks to take hold for much of the week ahead. Heat peaks this weekend with highs in the upper 90s to low 100s.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
As of 940 PM EDT Monday...

Key Message:

- Dry and pleasant tonight.

Latest analysis reveals 1024mb high pressure is centered just offshore of the New England coast, with the surface ridge axis extending S-SW across the lower mid-Atlantic coast. Aloft, well-advertised, and anomalously strong, upper level ridge was centered to our west this evening. Late afternoon/early evening convection in vicinity of the Blue Ridge has remained west of the local area. Partly cloudy west to mostly clear east this evening with temperatures primarily in the 70s. Remaining partly to mostly clear overnight w/early morning lows generally in the mid-upper 60s (highest in the Piedmont and near the coast where some lingering mid-clouds and low-level moisture will be more robust).

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
As of 155 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Continued warm and dry through the midweek period as the core of the upper ridge lifts just north of the local area.

Surface high pressure remains anchored offshore of the mid- Atlantic Tuesday and Wednesday, before weakening slightly as it builds down into the Carolinas by Thu. Weak low-level onshore flow maintains an atypical temperature pattern (warmer NW, cooler SE) in place. Highs each day will be in the upper 80s SE (mid 80s at near the coast) to the low 90s NW, with highs increasing into the upper 80s to low 90s on Thu. Dewpoints will remain in the 60s which will keep heat index values very near the air temp. Clouds, outside of typical afternoon cumulus, will be hard to come by with strong ridging aloft. Low temps mainly in the 60s each night with low 70s possible along the coast.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 155 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Hot and increasingly humid conditions expected Saturday and Sunday.

- Remaining mainly dry through the week.

The anomalously strong upper heat ridge peaks at around ~600 dam over the northeast Friday morning. Highs inland rise into the mid 90s for the NW half of the area on Friday with low 90s to the SE (upper 80s near the immediate coast). Dew points look to mix out into the 60s once again, so max heat index values remain within 1-2 deg F of the air temperature.

Looking ahead, the main weather story this weekend remains the persistent and increasingly oppressive heat. Sfc high pressure slides into a more typical summertime Bermuda Ridge pattern in the western Atlantic. This allows return flow to pull in hot and more humid air into the region over the weekend, with PW rebounding back toward typical climo values for late June.
EPS/GEFS probs and thickness schemes from both the ECMWF and GFS continue to favor widespread highs in the upper 90s and Max Heat Indices creeping into the upper 90s to low 100s on Saturday and potentially 105+ in spots on Sunday (especially eastern sections). Equally as important, relief at night will become increasingly harder to come by, with overnight lows only falling to around 70 degrees Friday night, and into the lower to middle 90s Sat and Sun nights. Therefore, while no heat-related headlines are necessary for much of the forecast period, it is appearing increasingly likely that we will need to ramp up heat messaging to core partners for later this week, with some heat headlines a good bet to be needed over at least a portion of the area by this weekend.

Regarding rain chances, increasing PW and the likely re-emergence of a weak lee trough by next weekend does allow for at least a better chance of some possible showers/storms by Sunday and Monday. Will maintain a slight to low-end chance (20-30%) during the late afternoon and early evening.

AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 750 PM EDT Monday...

High pressure is centered off the coast as of 00z and will continue to prevail through the next 24 hours bringing VFR conditions. SCT mid and high clouds inland will gradually dissipate this evening. There is a potential for some SCT-BKN AC with bases of 6-8kft later tonight into Tuesday morning, with FEW-SCT CU inland during the aftn. The wind will be light out of the SSE tonight, and then become SE ~10kt later Tuesday morning into the aftn.

Dry and VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Saturday as high pressure remains centered off the coast.

MARINE
As of 250 PM EDT Monday...

Key messages:

- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect into early tonight for the Chesapeake Bay, York River, and Rappahannock River

- Southeast winds briefly increase to 15-20 kt across the Chesapeake Bay Tuesday afternoon into early Tuesday evening

-Winds and seas increase late Sunday into Sunday night.

Afternoon surface analysis depicts high pressure offshore with a ridge aloft over the East Coast. This features remain in place through the week with a repeating diurnal pattern each day with winds generally S/SE each day. Winds this afternoon were generally S/SE 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt across the Ches Bay with lower winds across the James River, Currituck Sound, and coastal waters.
12z CAMs have increased consensus and confidence in winds increasing to 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt into the Rappahannock and York Rivers later this afternoon. As such, SCAs have been expanded to included these rivers. While a few gusts to 20 kt are possible over the James River and Currituck Sound late this afternoon into this evening, confidence is too low to expand the SCAs to these areas with most model guidance keeping winds sub-SCA. SCAs will remain in effect until 10 PM for the upper rivers, 1 AM Tue for the lower bay, and 4 AM Tue for the middle and upper bay. Winds become S, diminishing to 5-10 kt late tonight. Winds become SE Tue, increasing to 15-17 kt with gusts to 20 kt across the Ches Bay and rivers Tue afternoon into Tue evening. Will continue to monitor for the potential for marginal SCA conditions Tue afternoon/evening, however, wind probs remain relatively low at this time (<25%).
Relatively benign marine conditions are expected from Tue night into this weekend as a ridge remains over the East Coast with high pressure offshore. Some model guidance suggests a period of elevated seas and high period swell Sun into Mon as a potential wave of low pressure moves towards the Southeast coast. Will continue to monitor.

Waves and seas build to 2-3 ft and 3 ft respectively later this afternoon into this evening. Waves and seas remain 1-3 ft and 2-3 ft through Wed. There is the potential for 3-4 ft seas Thu-Fri night.
However, seas should remain sub-SCA. Some model guidance suggests that seas build Sun into Mon to SCA criteria (~4-6 ft) due to a wave of low pressure moving towards the Southeast coast.

The rip risk is moderate across the N beaches (due to higher period swell of ~11 seconds) on Tue and low across the S beaches (due to a lower period swell of ~6 seconds) with a moderate rip risk across all area beaches on Wed due to building seas and a more onshore flow.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ630-631.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ632-634.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ635- 636.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 11 mi46 minS 16G19 74°F 77°F4 ft
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 20 mi58 minS 9.9G11 75°F 80°F30.20
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 20 mi58 minSSE 16G19 30.25
44042 - Potomac, MD 21 mi46 minS 14G18 73°F 77°F1 ft
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 31 mi58 minSSW 12G15
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 31 mi88 min0 74°F 30.2161°F
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 34 mi58 minSSW 12G15 74°F 80°F30.20
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 36 mi58 minS 6G8 74°F 78°F30.21
44072 37 mi40 minS 16G19 74°F 2 ft
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 37 mi58 minS 15G20 76°F 79°F30.20
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 42 mi58 minS 13G16 74°F 75°F30.24
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 42 mi58 minS 7G8.9 75°F 77°F30.18
44041 - Jamestown, VA 44 mi46 minSE 7.8G12 73°F 82°F
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 47 mi58 minS 15G19 75°F 30.19
44087 49 mi62 min 76°F1 ft


Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KTGI TANGIER ISLAND,VA 17 sm42 minS 10G1610 smClear75°F66°F74%30.21
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Wind History graph: FYJ
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Tide / Current for Dividing Creek, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
   
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Dividing Creek
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Mon -- 02:29 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 02:59 AM EDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:43 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:46 AM EDT     0.90 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:44 PM EDT     0.17 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:25 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 08:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:16 PM EDT     1.15 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Dividing Creek, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia, Tide feet
12
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0.6
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0.4
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1


Tide / Current for Fleet Point, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Fleet Point
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Mon -- 02:29 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:32 AM EDT     0.22 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:42 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:07 AM EDT     0.86 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:17 PM EDT     0.17 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:25 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 08:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:37 PM EDT     1.09 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Fleet Point, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia, Tide feet
12
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0.7
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0.5
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1


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GEOS Local Image of east us   
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Wakefield, VA,




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