Thursday, April2, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Kilmarnock, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:47AMSunset 7:30PM Thursday April 2, 2020 3:20 PM EDT (19:20 UTC) Moonrise 12:13PMMoonset 2:21AM Illumination 73% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ630 Chesapeake Bay From Smith Point To Windmill Point Va- 121 Pm Edt Thu Apr 2 2020
.small craft advisory in effect through Friday afternoon...
This afternoon..NW winds 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Tonight..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Waves 4 to 5 ft.
Fri..NW winds 20 to 25 kt, increasing to 25 to 30 kt late in the morning, then diminishing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 35 kt. Waves 4 to 5 ft.
Fri night..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft.
Sat..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming ne 5 to 10 kt late. Waves 2 to 3 ft, subsiding to 1 foot late.
Sat night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sun..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sun night..S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Mon night..S winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot.
ANZ600 121 Pm Edt Thu Apr 2 2020
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. Low pressure meanders well offshore of the waters through Saturday. Meanwhile, high pressure slowly builds in from the northwest from today through the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kilmarnock, VA
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location: 37.73, -76.3     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 021722 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 122 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2020

SYNOPSIS. Strong low pressure will remain off the New England coast today as high pressure builds across the Great Lakes. High pressure remains over the Great Lakes tonight and Friday as the low pivots back toward the coast. The low will push farther east Saturday as high pressure builds over the area.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. As of 120 PM EDT Thursday .

Low pressure will continue to spin off the New England coast today as high pressure ridges swd through the Great Lakes. This will maintain a strong pressure gradient over the Mid-Atlantic region. This combined with good mixing will result in dry and breezy conditions. A NW wind is expected to range from 10-15 mph with gusts to 20 mph over the Piedmont, to 15-20 mph with gusts to 20-25 mph from central to SE VA and NE NC, and ~20 mph with gusts to ~30 mph for the Ern Shore. Sunny with a few aftn CU over the Ern Shore, with highs ranging from the mid/upper 50s over the Ern Shore, to the low 60s inland W of the Bay.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/. As of 400 AM EDT Thursday .

The stacked upper low is forecast to retrograde back toward the coast later Thursday night into Friday. This will likely result in variably cloudy/mostly cloudy conditions across the ern half of the area Friday (and there could even be a few light showers along the Atlantic coast of the Ern Shore) , with a partly to mostly sunny sky farther inland. Lows Thursday night range from the mid/upper 30s from the Piedmont to the interior coastal plain, to the low 40s closer to the coast where more mixing is expected. At this time, frost does not appear to be a threat over the Piedmont given light mixing and low dewpoints. Continued breezy Friday with seasonal highs ranging from the mid/upper 50s over the Ern Shore to the low/mid 60s over the Piedmont. The low slowly moves farther offshore Friday night and Saturday, with weak high pressure building into the region. Mostly clear inland to partly cloudy toward the coast Friday night, then partly sunny Saturday. Lows Friday night will generally be 40-45F, followed by highs Saturday ranging from the low/mid 50s along the coast, to the low/mid 60s inland W of the Bay.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 400 PM EDT Wednesday .

Quiet to start the extended forecast period with high pressure in control of the local weather. Skies will average somewhere between partly cloudy (west) and mostly clear (central/east) Saturday night. Overnight lows fall into the low and mid 40s. Mostly clear on Sunday with temperatures warming into the low/mid 60s near the coast to right around 70s for the Piedmont counties.

Diffuse high pressure slips to the south of the local region Sunday night into Monday as weak southerly surface flow continues. Lows fall into the upper 40s and low 50s under partly cloudy skies. Moisture levels tick upward on Monday afternoon as high temps climb into the mid 70s inland (upper 60s/low 70s near the coast). Slight chance of showers by Monday evening into early Tuesday as a series of low amplitude waves in the NW flow aloft traverse the region. This pattern will continue into the mid week period with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s.

AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. As of 120 PM EDT Thursday .

A NW wind continues at 15-20kt with gusts to 25kt at RIC/PHF/ORF/ECG, and 15-20kt with gusts to 25-30kt at SBY as low pressure lingers offshore and as high pressure builds in from the northwest. Sunny today with the exception of FEW-SCT aftn CU. Mostly clear for much of the region tonight with a NW wind of 8-12kt. Gusts remain around 20 kts at ORF, PHF, and ECG tonight.

Continued breezy Friday as high pressure remains NW of the region and low pressure lingers offshore. Variably cloudy/mostly cloudy toward SBY Friday, and partly to mostly sunny farther inland. Weak high pressure prevails Saturday and Sunday, and then pushes offshore Monday.

MARINE. As of 400 AM EDT Thursday .

A very strong area of low pressure is now centered a few hundred miles E of the northern Mid-Atlantic coast early this morning, with a broad area of weak high pressure centered from the wrn Great Lakes S to the Gulf Coast. N-NW winds are starting to increase (due to a secondary nocturnal CAA surge on the back side of the low). Wind speeds are 10-20 kt (highest N), with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves in the bay are 2-4 ft while seas offshore range from 5-7 ft N to 6-9 ft S.

Winds will increase to 20-25 knots with gusts to 30 knots in the bay, Lower James River, Currituck Sound, and coastal waters during the next few hours as the aforementioned CAA surge quickly moves southward. A slight decrease in winds is expected over the bay/ocean today (while remaining near/just above SCA thresholds), but NW winds over the rivers will increase during the day to 15-20 kt (w/ a few gusts to 25 kt) as mixing over land improves. Therefore, went ahead and added an SCA for the Upper Rivers starting at 10 AM this morning (running through 22z/6 PM Friday). SCAs for the Ches Bay/Currituck Sound have also been extended through 22z/6 PM Friday. The offshore low will not move much today before actually retrograding to the SW tonight-Friday. Another nocturnal CAA surge (more energetic with the low a bit closer to the area) is expected to drop southward tonight. While winds may briefly fall below SCA criteria on the rivers/Currituck Sound this evening, they will quickly increase to 15-25 kt by early Fri AM. Over the bay/ocean, NW winds will increase to ~25 kt with frequent gusts to 30 kt by early Fri AM. A few gusts of 35 kt are likely across the nrn Ches Bay zone (near Tangier Island) and the nrn coastal waters (mainly near 20 nm offshore). Do not feel that gale gusts will be frequent enough to warrant a Gale Warning tonight-Fri AM. Local wind gust probabilities for >34 kt are less than 50% over the majority of the marine area, with a few spots in the 40-50% range (mainly over part of the northernmost Ches Bay zone and near 20 nm offshore of the coastal waters N of Cape Charles). Winds slowly diminish Fri-Sat as the low slowly turns south then southeast, while the area of weak high pressure slowly builds toward the area from the NW. Winds may still be around SCA thresholds over the bay/ocean through Fri night (and turn more to the N). Winds finally fall below SCA criteria on Sat as the high moves just to the W of the waters. Winds aob 10 kt are expected during the latter half of the weekend as the high settles over the waters.

Seas will continue to slowly decrease to 4-7 ft (on average) today. However, the low pressure system will meander/loop around the waters off the east coast and will continue to send large swell waves toward the coast through at least this weekend. Seas remain 4-7 ft (on average) through Fri before increasing to 7-9 ft on Sat. Waves near the mouth of the bay may rise above SCA thresholds by Sat as well. Seas are progged to slowly fall during the second half of the weekend, perhaps falling below SCA thresholds by early next week. The SCA for the ocean was extended through 10z Sat (the end of the 4th period) for now, but will need to be extended further in future shifts.

FIRE WEATHER. As of 400 AM EDT Thursday .

Dry and breezy today with high pressure centered NW of the region and strong low pressure off the New England coast. A NW wind is expected to range from 10-15 mph inland to 15-20 mph toward the coast today, with gusts to 20-25 mph inland and 25-30 mph toward the coast. Min RH values are expected to range from 25-30% inland to 30-40% closer to the coast. However, due to recent rain, observed fuel moisture per area RAWS stations is generally in the range of 15-22%. Therefore, this should preclude any fire weather concerns today. Continued dry and breezy over the region Friday. Min RH values are expected to drop to 20-25% over the SW Piedmont Friday along with a 10-15 mph NW wind with gusts to ~20 mph. SPC has included this area in a Day 2 elevated risk. Early green-up will likely be a limiting factor to any fire weather concerns Friday. More cloud cover from the I-95 corridor ewd will result in higher min RH values (30-35% for I-95 corridor to 40-50% toward the coast).

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. As of 705 AM EDT Thursday .

N/NW winds have continued to allow water to exit the bay, and tidal anomalies have continued to fall during the past few hours (averaging around 1.25-1.5 ft as of 7 AM). Have dropped all Coastal Flood Advisories, as Windmill Point has already crested, and Lewisetta/Bishop's Head will crest a few tenths below minor flood thresholds this morning. The only Advisory that is currently in effect is for the bay side of Northampton County, which will be cancelled/allowed to expire as water levels at Bayford will fall below minor flood thresholds by 8-9 AM.

Decent N-NW winds/a few more ebb tides will allow anomalies in the bay to remain relatively low, and no coastal flooding is expected from this aftn-Fri. However, increasing swell (perhaps 7-9 ft) coupled w/ decreasing N winds will likely allow water to again pile up in the bay, resulting in an increase in tidal anomalies. Minor tidal flooding appears likely in many areas adjacent to the Ches Bay (and also Atlantic Ocean) this weekend. Cannot rule out a few occurrences of moderate tidal flooding this weekend in the typical flood-prone sites across the VA Nrn Neck/bay side of the Lower MD Ern Shore.

CLIMATE. March 2020 temperature ranks:

4th warmest at RIC (54.8F), #1 1945 (58.5F) 4th warmest at ORF (57.0F), #1 1945 (59.5F) 8th warmest at SBY (50.7F), #1 1945 (56.2F) 4th warmest at ECG (58.0F), #1 1945 (61.5F)

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ630>638. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ650-652- 654-656-658.

SYNOPSIS . AJZ NEAR TERM . AJZ SHORT TERM . AJZ LONG TERM . RHR AVIATION . AJZ/RHR MARINE . ERI FIRE WEATHER . TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . CLIMATE .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 11 mi260 min NW 18 G 19 53°F2 ft1016.5 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 20 mi272 min NNW 16 G 22 51°F 53°F1013.1 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 20 mi272 min NW 19 G 24 1013.3 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 21 mi260 min WNW 29 G 31 49°F 53°F2 ft1012.3 hPa (-1.0)
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 31 mi272 min NNW 21 G 25
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 31 mi290 min NNW 4.1 52°F 1014 hPa33°F
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 33 mi272 min NNW 19 G 22 51°F 1013.3 hPa
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 34 mi272 min NW 4.1 G 20 53°F 50°F1011.5 hPa
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 36 mi272 min NW 19 G 24 51°F 55°F1012.8 hPa
44072 37 mi260 min NNE 18 G 19 51°F 53°F2 ft
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 37 mi272 min NW 19 G 24 51°F 51°F1011.6 hPa
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 42 mi272 min NW 19 G 21 52°F
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 42 mi272 min NW 13 G 21 51°F 53°F1012.2 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 47 mi302 min NW 18 G 24 1012.7 hPa

Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
West Point, Middle Peninsula Regional Airport, VA29 mi25 minWNW 15 G 2410.00 miFair61°F30°F31%1010.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFYJ

Wind History from FYJ (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Dividing Creek, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Dividing Creek
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:28 AM EDT     0.17 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:21 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:58 AM EDT     1.13 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:13 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:36 PM EDT     0.21 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:32 PM EDT     0.97 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.20.30.50.70.91.11.11.10.90.70.50.30.20.20.30.50.70.8110.90.70.5

Tide / Current Tables for Fleet Point, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Fleet Point
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:01 AM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:21 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:19 AM EDT     1.08 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:12 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:09 PM EDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:53 PM EDT     0.92 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.20.20.40.60.811.11.10.90.80.60.40.30.20.20.40.60.70.90.90.90.70.5

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.