Saturday, July11, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Kilmarnock, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:53AMSunset 8:28PM Saturday July 11, 2020 1:05 AM EDT (05:05 UTC) Moonrise 11:35PMMoonset 11:05AM Illumination 68% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ630 Chesapeake Bay From Smith Point To Windmill Point Va- 1259 Am Edt Sat Jul 11 2020
Rest of tonight..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A slight chance of showers.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S 5 to 10 kt in the late morning and afternoon. Waves around 2 ft.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sun..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sun night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Mon night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ600 1259 Am Edt Sat Jul 11 2020
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. Tropical storm fay will continue away to the north overnight. A surface trough and cold front approach from the west on Saturday and move through in the evening.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kilmarnock, VA
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location: 37.73, -76.3     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 102319 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 719 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

SYNOPSIS. Tropical Storm Fay will continue to pull away from the local area this evening. A weak frontal boundary will push across most of the area on Saturday before dissipating along the coast Saturday night. Hot and humid conditions are expected to continue through much of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/. As of 700 PM EDT Friday .

Only minor tweaks to the near term forecast, mainly bumped up pops across the far west from slight chance to chance. Otherwise, forecast remains on track.

Previous discussion .

Tropical Storm Fay is now centered just offshore of the southern New Jersey coast. Radar mosaic is just showing isolated- scattered light showers over the Lower MD Ern Shore. Some isolated showers were noted over ern VA/the VA Ern shore earlier this aftn. All Flood Warnings have been allowed to expire. The larger scale upper pattern features broad troughing over the Great Lakes/ern CONUS, with a shortwave moving E into the OH Valley. There is an associated sfc low over Michigan, with a weak/trailing frontal boundary extending southward into wrn OH, ern KY, and ern TN. Temperatures are generally in the upper 80s-low 90s, with upper 70s-low 80s over the MD Ern Shore. Could see temperatures rise a degree or two in the next couple of hours. Winds are aob 10 mph over most areas, but still seeing gusts to ~25 mph over the Ern Shore. Scattered-numerous tstms have developed over OH/WV/KY immediately in advance of the aforementioned shortwave, with a few tstms beginning to develop over the mountains of VA.

Additional tstms are expected to develop to our west during the next few hours. These storms may hold together as they move into the VA Piedmont (most likely timing after 6 PM), but will struggle to make it to the I-95 corridor/RIC metro due to the loss of daytime heating (and also the fact that the eastward progression will be quite slow given the weak flow aloft). Not expecting a whole lot of organization with any tstms this evening. The chc of severe wx this evening is very low. Cannot rule out a stray shower or two during the second half of the night (will cap PoPs at 15% after 06z/2 AM). Otherwise, partly cloudy, warm, and humid overnight with lows mainly in the low- mid 70s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/. As of 345 PM EDT Friday .

The large scale pattern will continue to feature broad upper troughing over the Great Lakes/ern CONUS through the short term period as multiple upper shortwaves pass by to our N. The flow aloft from Sat-Mon will be W or SW. On Friday, the weak frontal boundary that is currently moving through the OH Valley will cross most of the area but will remain near the coast Sat aftn (while the associated upper shortwave axis crosses the region). The weak frontal boundary will be focus for afternoon thunderstorm development (most likely across far SE VA/NE NC). Expect mainly hot/dry conditions (w/ slightly less humidity) along/west of I-95 with more of a westerly component to the sfc flow behind the weak boundary. Will maintain PoPs of 40-50% for NE NC, with PoPs of 30-40% from Hampton Roads to most of the Lower Ern Shore. Most likely timing for tstms on Sat is from 18-00z/2-8 PM. Highs generally between 91-95F. Heat indices will peak around 100 degrees on Saturday across Hampton Roads/NE NC. Dew points will be low enough across central/wrn zones to keep heat indices from being much higher than the actual temperature. While SPC has the area outlooked in general thunder, cannot rule out an isolated strong storm across far SE VA/NE NC given adequate instability and somewhat stronger flow aloft (~25 kt at 500 mb/40-55 kt at 300 mb). Will only carry a slight chc of tstms across far SE VA/NE NC after 00z Sun, with PoPs falling below 15% across all zones after 06z. Lows Sat night mainly in the upper 60s-low 70s (w/ mid 70s near the coast).

Despite broad upper troughing over the ern CONUS, the local area will be in between shortwaves on Sunday. This will likely result in a hot and mostly dry day. Only a slight chance for afternoon tstms across coastal SE VA/NE NC and also over the far NW tier of counties. Otherwise, highs on Sunday will be in the low to mid 90s. Cannot rule out an isolated shower/tstm across wrn zones during the first part of Sun night, with slight chances for showers continuing after 06z Mon.

Another shortwave trough in the flow aloft is expected to move just north of the area Sunday night into Monday. Meanwhile, the associated sfc frontal boundary approaches the area from the NW on Monday. 12z/10 model consensus is forecasting the boundary to be in the vicinity of central/ern VA Mon aftn. This will likely allow for a better chance of tstms on Monday (mainly east of I-95). Pops are 30-50% east of I-95 after 18z Mon. The chc of severe wx on Monday is low. Highs mainly in the low 90s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 355 PM EDT Friday .

In typical mid-July fashion, the extended period can be described in two words: "hot" and "humid".

Tues will be the "coolest" day with highs in the upper 80s near the coast and in the Eastern Shore with low 90s inland. A strong ridge builds over the south Wed. The southern ridge combined with a strengthening Bermuda High will result in very warm, moist air advecting into the region through at least Fri. Therefore, highs in the low to mid 90s Wed will increase into the upper 90s inland with low to mid 90s near the coast on Thurs and Fri.

Lows also reflect the heat and will range from the upper 60s to the low 70s Mon and Tues nights, rising into the low to mid 70s on Wed night, and rising even more into the mid to upper 70s on Thurs and Fri nights. Dewpoints start off in the mid 60s to low 70s early on, but they too will increase into the low to mid 70s on Thurs and Fri. The combination of low to mid 70s dewpoints with temps in the upper 90s will result in high to potentially very high heat indices by Wed, Thur, and Fri. Heat indices could approach 100 degrees Wed, 100 to 105 degrees Thurs, and 105+ on Fri.

There is a very slight chance of diurnal thunderstorms Wed and Thurs afternoons/evenings (15-20% PoPs), but the only substantial chance for rain will come on Fri as a short wave pivots through the region. The euro is quicker/weaker with this feature and brings it through Thurs night into Fri morning, whereas the GFS is slower/stronger with the feature and develops a line of storms that acts as a pseudo cold front and moves through late Fri. Will introduce 25-35% PoPs for this feature due to uncertainty with strength and timing this far out.

AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 150 PM EDT Friday .

Mainly VFR conditions expected through the period. Widely scattered convection overnight across the area, however pops are too low for any precip mention at any particular terminal. Additional scattered convection tomorrow evening, with the highest chances at ORF/ECG, but held off mention with this TAF cycle. Any convection over or near a terminal may result in brief flight restrictions. Winds S/SW tonight becoming SW on Saturday with wind speeds 10 kts or less.

OUTLOOK . Mainly VFR conditions continue through the end of the weekend and into early next week with just widely scattered convection which may result in brief flight restrictions.

MARINE. As of 345 PM EDT Friday .

Afternoon surface map shows TS Fay moving northward just off the NJ coast. Winds remain out of the NW 10-15 knots for the northern half of the waters with flow turning southerly across the southern half of the area. Waves have subsided to 2-3 ft in the bay. Seas near and south of the mouth of the bay are 3-4 ft but remain in the 4-6 ft range N.

An upper level trough and cold front approach the region from the west in the wake of TS Fay. Flow turns S or SSW 10-15 knots for all waters tonight into Saturday in advance of the front. Seas will be slow to subside across the northern coastal waters tonight and have extended the SCA headlines in the northern 2 coastal zones through 7am. Expect this boundary to cross the waters late Saturday evening into the overnight period with flow becoming westerly for a few hours Sunday morning. Lee troughing and a return to S or SSW flow resumes on Sunday afternoon as another trough aloft approaches from the west. This will force a more robust cold front through the region Monday night and early Tuesday with winds turning NW. Thereafter, an upper ridge builds into the region with sub-SCA conditions. Model guidance shows the potential for seas to increase to 4-5 ft out near 20 nautical miles for the northern coastal waters in the southerly flow this weekend into early next week. Waves in the bay will stay in the 1-3 ft range.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ650-652.

SYNOPSIS . ERI NEAR TERM . CMF/ERI SHORT TERM . CP/ERI LONG TERM . RMM AVIATION . CMF/RMM MARINE . AJZ/RHR


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 11 mi24 min SW 14 G 16 83°F1012.4 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 20 mi48 min SSW 8.9 G 9.9 84°F1008 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 20 mi48 min S 14 G 15 1009.2 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 31 mi48 min SW 15 G 18
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 31 mi81 min Calm 80°F 1010 hPa72°F
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 33 mi48 min SW 13 G 15 1009.3 hPa
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 34 mi48 min SW 8.9 G 13 84°F1008.8 hPa
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 36 mi48 min SSW 8 G 11 83°F1008.4 hPa
44072 37 mi26 min W 14 G 16 83°F
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 37 mi48 min SSW 15 G 17 83°F1007.6 hPa
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 42 mi48 min SSW 14 G 15 81°F
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 42 mi48 min SSW 12 G 14 82°F1007.3 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 47 mi90 min S 8.9 G 12 1007.9 hPa
44087 49 mi40 min 82°F2 ft

Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
West Point, Middle Peninsula Regional Airport, VA29 mi71 minS 47.00 miFair81°F73°F78%1009.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFYJ

Wind History from FYJ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE3CalmN4NW3CalmNW3NW6NW5N3NW5W9
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3E4CalmE5SE4E6E4E6E9E10SE7E10E5E3E3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Dividing Creek, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Dividing Creek
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:09 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:41 AM EDT     1.04 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:59 AM EDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 12:05 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:16 PM EDT     1.05 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:28 PM EDT     0.22 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.50.70.9110.90.80.60.30.20.10.20.30.60.81110.90.70.50.30.2

Tide / Current Tables for Fleet Point, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Fleet Point
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:09 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:02 AM EDT     0.99 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:52 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:32 AM EDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 12:04 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:37 PM EDT     1.00 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.40.60.80.910.90.80.60.40.20.10.10.20.40.70.9110.90.80.60.40.3

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.