Thursday, September19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kilmarnock, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:49AMSunset 7:08PM Thursday September 19, 2019 2:50 PM EDT (18:50 UTC) Moonrise 9:21PMMoonset 10:46AM Illumination 69% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ630 Chesapeake Bay From Smith Point To Windmill Point Va- 102 Pm Edt Thu Sep 19 2019
This afternoon..Waves around 2 ft.
Tonight..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri..NW winds 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot.
Fri night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sun..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sun night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Mon night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
ANZ600 102 Pm Edt Thu Sep 19 2019
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure builds toward the area today before becoming centered over the waters on Friday. The high then moves to the south and east of the waters by Sunday morning.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kilmarnock, VA
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location: 37.73, -76.3     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 191720
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
120 pm edt Thu sep 19 2019

Synopsis
Surface high pressure builds into the region from the north
today, then settles over the local area on Friday. Meanwhile,
hurricane humberto is forecast to remain well off the coast
through the next few days. High pressure becomes anchored along
or just off the carolina coast over the weekend.

Near term through tonight
As of 120 pm edt Thursday...

latest analysis reveals strong sfc high pressure (~1028mb)
centered over eastern new england, ridging south into the
carolinas early this afternoon. Remaining breezy this aftn with
a still-compressed pressure gradient in place along the se
va NE nc coastal plain. The cool e-ne winds continues to bring
marine- induced CU stratocu inland across the eastern third of
the local area. Breezy conditions wane a bit this afternoon and
tonight as gradient continues to slacken with TC humberto
farther offshore. Temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s early
this aftn will top out in the lower to mid 70s by mid aftn,
with upper 60s around 70f for the md atlantic coast.

Clouds once again scour out quickly this evening. A mainly clear
sky, and light wind will combine to bring the coolest night for
most areas in several months tonight. Followed close to mav met
numbers, focusing widespread lows in the 45-50f range for the
interior (lower 50s urban areas). As winds diminish, even
coastal areas will likely fall into the 50s to around 60f toward
under a clear sky.

Short term Friday through Saturday
As of 300 am edt Thursday...

models in good agreement with the placement of the sfc high on
fri, over south central va in the morning shifting to se
va eastern nc by aftn. After a cool start, readings will rebound
and warm a few degrees higher than on thu. Given dry antecedent
conditions went slightly higher than mav met numbers for highs
with mid to upper 70s along the coast and upper 70s around 80f
well inland (warmest from the piedmont to metro ric). With the
sfc high in place across the area, probably will not even see
any cumulus development under full sunshine. The sfc high more
or less remains in place or shifts just slightly off the coast
of nc on sat. Not quite as cool Fri night Sat am but still a
little below avg with lows mainly ranging through the 50s over
all but the immediate coast where lower 60s are expected. Sunny
and continued dry for Sat with temperatures moderating a few
more degrees (to slightly above avg) with highs into the lower
to mid 80s (upper 70s around 80f at the coast). Clear sat
night Sun am with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Long term Saturday night through Wednesday
As of 135 pm edt Wednesday...

temperatures will moderate back near to above normal over the
Sunday into early next week, as sfc high pressure slides
offshore. Aloft, the region will remain on the periphery of an
upper level ridge of high pressure, which will slowly amplify
over the region from the southwest on Sunday.

Above average temperatures likely prevail through this period
with highs in the mid upper 80s to around 90 degrees with early
morning lows generally in the 60s area wide.

Rain chances remain essentially nil through the first half of
the period, and don't go much higher even with the next front
early next week. Aforementioned upper ridge holds strong over
the southeast, and keeps moisture from next (weak) front... And
any remnant moisture from TC imelda... Well north of the local
area late Monday and Tuesday. Pops are no better than slight
chance over far northern CWA Mon night and tue... And silent
(<14%) central and south through the period. Temperatures look
to remain at or above climo normal next week.

Aviation 17z Thursday through Monday
As of 120 pm edt Thursday...

vfr conditions over the region this aftn, though some mid-level
cu sc will keep CIGS in the 3.5 - 4 kft agl range this aftn
along coastal terminals. Winds will remain breeze out of the
ene, with gusts to 20-25kt through 20z or so before winds start
tapering off. Winds inland will avg 10kt or less from the E ne
today under a partly to mostly sunny sky ivof kric terminal.

Outlook: high pressure remains in control tonight through
Monday. Dry conditions will prevail and expect mainlyVFR
conditions during this period with less wind expected.

Marine
As of 340 am edt Thursday...

early this morning, hurricane humberto was tracking to the ne
several hundred miles off the va nc coast. At the same time,
~1029 mb high pressure was centered over new england with sfc
ridging extending ssw into the central carolinas georgia. The
pressure gradient between humberto and the high is continuing to
lead to NE winds of 15-25 kt (sustained) over the waters (with
the exception of the upper rivers). A few gusts to ~30 kt were
noted earlier this morning over the mouth of the ches bay. Waves
are 2-3 ft across the northern bay and 4-6 ft across the south
(highest at the mouth of the bay). Seas remain in the 9-10.5 ft
range in the atlantic waters off the outer banks, with 7-9 ft
seas north of the va nc border.

The high is progged to build ssw toward the area today, and humberto
will be far enough offshore to allow the pressure gradient to relax
some. While not much change in the winds is expected from now
through 12z... The relaxing pressure gradient will allow NE winds to
slowly diminish during the day today. Wind gusts are expected to drop
below SCA thresholds from NW to SE from mid morning to mid
afternoon. However, seas waves in the SRN bay will be very slow
to subside. By 00z fri, seas are forecast to fall to 6-8 ft,
with 3-5 ft waves in the SRN bay mouth of the bay. As for
headlines, scas have been extended through 14z 10 am for the nrn
2 bay zones, 17z 1 pm for the lower james river, 20z 4 pm for
the lower ches bay currituck sound, and 02z Fri 10 pm for the
mouth of the ches bay. There is the potential that 4 ft waves
linger in the mouth of the bay through 12z fri, but not
confident enough to extend the SCA that far out with the current
forecast package.

The high is expected to settle into the region from fri-sat before
moving to the SE of the area by Sat night-sun. Winds turn to
the N then NW on Fri before becoming SW by early Sat am.

Sustained winds will remain AOB 12 kt from Fri through the
weekend. However, seas will be slow to diminish and are forecast
to remain AOA 5 ft through Sat am, so scas remain in effect for
all ocean zones until 12z sat. A weak cold front approaches the
region on Mon before crossing the area from Mon night-tue am.

However, conditions are expected to remain sub-sca from late sat
through early next week.

Tides coastal flooding
As of 515 am edt Thursday...

tidal anomalies have risen to 1.5-2 ft above normal in areas
adjacent to the ches bay rivers. Minor tidal flooding is
expected in areas from the lower md ERN shore to the SRN shore
of the ches bay upper james river during today's high tide.

Therefore, coastal flood advisories have been extended through
late aftn-evening. In addition, all areas that were under
coastal flood statements yesterday early this morning have been
upgraded to coastal flood advisories. Most areas under coastal
flood advisories are expected to see water levels crest above
minor below moderate thresholds. Water levels may approach just
exceed moderate flood thresholds at lewisetta, bayford, and
bishop's head during the high tide cycle this aftn. Lewisetta
will especially have to be watched as water levels crested at
~3.45 ft above mllw early this morning and this aftn's high tide
is the (slightly) higher of the two astronomical tides.

With the persistent (but diminishing) NE wind, tidal anomalies
will remain elevated through late aftn-early evening. After
that, guidance strongly hints at a significant reduction in
tidal anomalies from this evening through Friday night. As a
result, anomalies slowly fall from tonight-fri. However,
lingering nuisance tidal flooding is possible in a few spots
during the high tide early Friday morning.

Most areas along the atlantic coast will see water levels crest just
below minor flood thresholds during today's high tide. However,
there is a chc that water levels reach minor flood thresholds
on the ocean side of the va ERN shore later today.

A high rip current risk is forecast for today, as swell from
humberto propagates toward the coast. The high rip current risk
will likely continue through the end of the work week.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... Coastal flood advisory until 11 pm edt this evening for
mdz021>023.

Nc... High surf advisory until 7 pm edt this evening for ncz102.

Va... Coastal flood advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for vaz089-
090-093-096-099-100-524.

Coastal flood advisory until 5 pm edt this afternoon for
vaz084>086-095-097-098-523-525.

High surf advisory until 7 pm edt this evening for vaz098>100.

Coastal flood advisory until 11 pm edt this evening for vaz075-
077-078.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 8 am edt Saturday for anz650-652-
654-656-658.

Small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for anz634.

Small craft advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for anz632-
633.

Synopsis... Mam
near term... Mam
short term... Lkb mam
long term... Mam
aviation... Lkb mam
marine... Eri
tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 11 mi39 min NE 9.7 G 12 67°F 76°F1030.3 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 20 mi51 min E 5.1 G 7 1027 hPa (-0.3)
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 20 mi51 min N 13 G 15 1027.1 hPa (-0.4)
44042 - Potomac, MD 21 mi27 min NE 3.9 G 3.9 65°F 77°F1029.3 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 31 mi51 min SE 8.9 G 9.9
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 31 mi81 min ENE 1.9 71°F 1027 hPa53°F
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 33 mi51 min NE 9.9 G 12 67°F 1026.8 hPa (+0.0)
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 34 mi51 min NE 14 G 17 66°F 69°F1026 hPa (+0.0)
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 36 mi51 min NE 4.1 G 11 68°F 76°F1026 hPa (+0.0)
44072 37 mi31 min E 12 G 16 67°F
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 37 mi51 min NNW 2.9 G 5.1 1027.1 hPa (-0.6)
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 42 mi51 min NE 7 G 13
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 42 mi51 min ESE 6 G 8 65°F 77°F1026.4 hPa (-0.9)
44041 - Jamestown, VA 44 mi27 min 68°F 79°F1026.5 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 47 mi51 min NW 7 G 12 64°F 1027.5 hPa (-0.9)
44087 49 mi21 min 75°F3 ft

Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
West Point, Middle Peninsula Regional Airport, VA29 mi1.9 hrsE 510.00 miOvercast69°F50°F53%1027.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFYJ

Wind History from FYJ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE8E9E9NE3CalmE5E4NE6NE5NE3CalmCalmNE3N4CalmN3CalmCalmNE4NE8
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1 day agoNE9NE9E9E8E9NE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3N3N4N3NE3NE6NE8NE10E7
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2 days agoS7SE6SE9SE4E5SE4E4SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4NE4E5E9
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Tide / Current Tables for Dividing Creek, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Dividing Creek
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:18 AM EDT     1.16 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:50 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:19 AM EDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:46 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:40 PM EDT     1.32 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:08 PM EDT     0.32 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:20 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.91.11.21.110.80.50.40.30.30.40.70.91.11.31.31.210.80.60.40.30.4

Tide / Current Tables for Fleet Point, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Fleet Point
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:39 AM EDT     1.11 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:50 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:52 AM EDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:46 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:01 PM EDT     1.26 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:20 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:41 PM EDT     0.31 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.70.91.11.110.80.60.40.30.20.30.50.811.21.31.21.10.90.60.40.30.3

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.