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ANZ630 Chesapeake Bay From Smith Point To Windmill Point Va- 936 Pm Est Wed Nov 29 2023
.small craft advisory in effect until 4 am est Thursday...
Overnight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt late. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of rain in the afternoon.
Fri night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of rain in the evening.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sat night..S winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of rain.
Sun..W winds 5 kt, becoming nw. Waves 1 foot. A chance of rain in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon.
Sun night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers in the evening.

ANZ600 936 Pm Est Wed Nov 29 2023
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers..
high pressure remains over the region through tonight, before gradually shifting offshore tomorrow. A couple areas of low pressure will affect the area later Friday into Monday morning.

FXUS61 KAKQ 300330 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1030 PM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

SYNOPSIS
High pressure remains centered south of the area through Thursday.
Temperatures moderate on Thursday, and remain mild through the weekend. The next chance for rain arrives Friday and again Sunday into Monday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
As of 1025 PM EST Wednesday...

Late evening sfc analysis shows high pressure centered over the Gulf Coast ridging up the East Coast into extreme SE VA and ern NC. This will remain the case overnight as the high slides east and becomes situated over the Carolinas and VA. Temps tonight will be cold again, though not as cold as last night. Went with the lower side of guidance given the dry air in place, clear skies, and the high overhead. Lows will be in the low-mid 20s except near the immediate coast where lows will be in the upper 20s-low 30s.

SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 245 PM EST Wednesday...

High pressure remains in control of our weather pattern (centered just south of the local area) during the day on Thursday.
Temperatures moderate Thursday afternoon, with highs ranging through the 50s area-wide due to southwest flow at the surface and warming/ridging developing aloft. Partly-mostly sunny with just some high clouds. Partly cloudy, with increasing clouds Thu night and lows in the low-mid 30s for most, around 40F near the coast.

The center of high pressure will be well offshore by Friday morning.
Meanwhile, low pressure will be tracking ENE from the the mid MS Valley into the lower OH Valley by the evening. The trough aloft will weaken quite a bit before reaching Appalachia and models continue to trend drier for the local area, so even light rain is looking less likely on Friday. As such, have bumped the PoPs down and now have mostly Chc PoPs with Likely maintained for far northern counties Friday evening. QPFs will be light with most places likely seeing less than 0.1". It will be mild Friday with highs ranging from the lower 50s NW (where clouds and precip arrive earliest) to the low- mid 60s SE where most of the day may end up dry.

A cold front weakens as it moves into the area Friday night, bringing an end to most of the remaining precipitation, though the trend is for lingering clouds and mild temperatures Fri night with lows in the low 40s NW (where it may partially clear out), to the low-mid 50s SE. The weak front will become quasi-stationary just to the south, so Schc PoPs will linger across SE VA and NE NC through Saturday afternoon. Saturday will be rather mild with highs in the 60s and may perhaps touch 70 in the far SE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 245 PM EST Wednesday...

Overall, the pattern for Sunday and Monday looks unsettled with above normal temperatures, though with continued disagreement amongst the operational global models, it remains rather uncertain as to timing and with respect to rain chances. As is typical in progressive flow pattern likes this, timing shortwaves and fronts at this range is very difficult. Nevertheless, the general consensus involves low pressure forming along the weakened front to the south and traveling ENE. This will bring additional chances for rain/showers on Sunday/Sunday night.

The models in general then track a northern stream system across the Great Lakes to the NE CONUS Mon-early Tue. A lot of uncertainty here, but will show PoPs again into the 30-40% range for Monday. Remaining mild Sun-Mon with lows in the 40s/50s, and highs mostly into the 60s both days (possibly staying in the 50s across the N). Drying out and turning cooler Tuesday with highs in the 50s.

AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 655 PM EST Wednesday...

VFR conditions will prevail for the 00z/30 TAF period. With high pressure nearby, skies will be clear for most of the period (outside of SCT clouds around 8kft AGL near SBY overnight). SCT-BKN high clouds will move in late in the period ahead of a system that will affect the area Friday. Winds will generally be S-SW aob 10 kt.

Outlook: High pressure remains centered S of the region Thursday, pushing off the Carolina coast into Thu night, bringing dry wx and VFR conditions. Winds remain SW at around 10 kt on Thu. The next chance for rain (and flight restrictions) will be Friday, then drying out Saturday. Another chance for rain Sunday.

MARINE
As of 245 PM EST Wednesday...

High pressure is centered along the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast coasts this afternoon. The wind is generally WSW 5-10kt, with 2-3ft seas, and 1-2ft waves in the Bay. A SW wind is expected to increase to 15-20kt with gusts to 25kt across the Bay/northern ocean by this evening, with SW 10-15kt with gusts up to 20kt elsewhere. Waves in the Bay build to 2-3ft this evening, while seas remain 2-3ft. SCAs are in effect for the Bay from 7 PM to 4 AM. High pressure lingers near the coast Thursday into early Friday. Another late aftn/evening diurnal increase in a SW wind is expected for the Bay/northern ocean Thursday, but should generally stay sub-SCA with wind speeds of 10-15kt with gusts to 20kt. A weak low pressure system slides across the coast later Friday into Saturday, with an upper trough and cold front approaching from the W later in the weekend. Sub-SCA conditions are expected during this time period.

CLIMATE
As of 655 PM EST Wednesday...

* Record Low Temperatures for today/Wed 11/29:

* RIC: 10 (1930)
* ORF: 21 (1955)
* SBY: 10 (1930)
* ECG: 23 (1996) *actual low of 21F, sets a new record low*

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for ANZ630>632- 634.

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Dividing Creek
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:28 AM EST     1.03 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:22 AM EST     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:59 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:28 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 12:53 PM EST     1.32 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:47 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:34 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:22 PM EST     0.01 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Dividing Creek, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia, Tide feet

Fleet Point
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:49 AM EST     0.98 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:55 AM EST     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:59 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:28 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 01:14 PM EST     1.26 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:46 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:33 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:55 PM EST     0.01 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Fleet Point, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia, Tide feet

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