Monday, November18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kilmarnock, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:45AMSunset 4:55PM Monday November 18, 2019 1:38 AM EST (06:38 UTC) Moonrise 10:35PMMoonset 12:17PM Illumination 65% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ630 Chesapeake Bay From Smith Point To Windmill Point Va- 104 Am Est Mon Nov 18 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 10 am est this morning...
Rest of tonight..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft. Areas of fog. A slight chance of rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..N winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft, subsiding to 1 to 2 ft late. A chance of showers late.
Mon night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. Showers likely in the evening.
Tue..W winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Tue night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt late. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..W winds 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri night..NW winds 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
ANZ600 104 Am Est Mon Nov 18 2019
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. Low pressure well off the carolina coast will lift north remaining well off the mid atlantic coast late tonight and Monday. High pressure gradually builds in from the west Tuesday and Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kilmarnock, VA
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location: 37.73, -76.3     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 180615
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
115 am est Mon nov 18 2019

Synopsis
Low pressure well off the carolina coast will lift northeast
while remaining well off the mid atlantic coast late tonight
and Monday. High pressure gradually builds in from the west
Tuesday and Wednesday.

Near term until 6 am this morning
As of 95 pm est Sunday...

latest analysis reveals nearly vertically stacked low pressure
about 350-400 miles off the sc nc coastline. Strong 1028+mb sfc
high pressure over atlantic canada continues to ridge south into
the mid-atlantic region, with ongoing cool air wedge allowing
for redevelopment of stratus across the piedmont.

Meanwhile, occasional light rain or drizzle continues along the
coast, as potent low pressure offshore gets a nudge NE from
next upper trough, currently digging south across the mid miss
valley. Remaining overcast along the coast... Mostly cloudy
inland.

Will maintain a chance pop at the coast overnight, with plenty
of llvl moisture over the fa through the night, and spotty
drizzle light rain likely to persist into early Mon morning.

Will also keep in sprinkles wording from i-95 east given
aforementioned llvl moisture. Winds continue to gradually
diminish but will remain gusty at the coast overnight. Lows in
the l-m30s central and W to the l-m40s at the coast.

Short term 6 am this morning through Wednesday
As of 215 pm est Sunday...

lo pres continues to move nne (well e) of the mid atlantic
coast Mon morning, rapidly lifting nne to E of new england by
afternoon evening. Meanwhile... Upper level trough to the west
digs from the mid-south to the central appalachians Monday,
crossing the local area toward evening. There will still be
some lingering moisture... ESP toward the coast Mon morning... So
there is the chance for spotty -ra E but most of the area should
remain dry. Then... W the upper level feature will have pops to
20-30% late Mon aftn and evening. Highs Mon from the u40s NE to
50-55f elsewhere. N NW winds will diminish along the coast but
may be a bit be breezy with gusts to 20-25 mph... ESP in the
morning.

A secondary trough aloft crosses the region Tue bringing vrb
clouds partly cloudy conditions... However dry low levels mean
very lo prob for shras. Lows Mon night in the l-m30s inland to
the u30s-l40s at the coast. Mainly partly sunny Tue W highs in
the m-u50s. Finally by wed... Nw aloft and sfc hi pres will be in
control over the region... Leading to dry and near seasonable wx.

Lows Tue night in the l30s W to the l40s at the immediate coast
in SE va-ne nc. Highs Wed in the m-u50s.

Long term Wednesday night through Sunday
As of 205 pm est Sunday...

dry milder wx expected Wed night through Thu night Fri morning.

By fri... A cold front approaches from the NW increasing clouds
and pops - shras by late in the day night (w the front off the
coast sat). A trailing system may affect the region by
sun... Though there are rather significant differences in the
extended guidance (12z GFS keeps that system S tracking through
the carolinas... While the ECMWF is farther N and slower - though
the GFS ensembles agree more W the ECMWF solution). Will use a
blend of the guidance for now which results in increasing
clouds pops Sat night... Then remaining unsettled sun. Lows wed
night in the l30s W to the u30s-l40s at the coast. Highs Thu in
the u50s to around 60f N to the l60s s. Lows Thu night ranging
through the 40s. Highs Fri mainly in the l-m60s. Lows Fri night
in the l-m30s N and W to around 40f at the coast in SE va-ne nc.

Highs Sat in the l-m50s. Highs Sun from the l50s N to around
60f far se.

Aviation 06z Monday through Friday
As of 100 am est Monday...

conditions have deteriorated early this morning with main
terminals now mostly reporting ifr CIGS from 500-700 ft, though
kric is still barely MVFR (~1000 ft). Some drizzle and reduced
vsbys are also observed closer to the coast. Expect primarily
ifr conditions through 12-15z E of i-95 to affect main
terminals. At kric have the cig dropping to ifr by 09z. Gusty
mainly N winds to remain... To 20-30 kt... At orf ecg... 10-15 kt
elsewhere. Slow improvement later this morning into the aftn,
with improvement toVFR conditions by ~18z at kric, and to MVFR
at the other TAF sites. An upper level system to move into the
region late aftn through the evening will bring scattered to
numerous light rain showers, followed by a return to
ifr possibly lifr conditions overnight into early Tue am (winds
will be rather light).

MainlyVFR conditions will then prevail after Tue morning and
last into the late week period.

Marine
As of 115 am est Monday...

gales for the ocean have been replaced with scas this morning
and continue through 6 pm Tuesday. Scas have ended for the
upper james, york and rappahannock rivers this morning and will
end over the lower james by 7 am. Scas for the upper bay will
end at 10 am and for the lower bay (minus the mouth) by 4 pm.

Sca for the mouth of the bay doesn't end until 1 am tues due to
lingering waves AOA 4 ft.

Low pressure will continue to track quickly nne today,
reaching the waters off SRN new england by this evening. Winds
slowly decrease (and turn more to the nw) this morning into the
afternoon as the low exits to the NE and the pressure gradient
finally starts to relax over the area. Therefore, anticipate
that winds fall below SCA criteria by late this morning on the
bay and this aftn over the ocean. Winds then remain sub-sca
through at least Tue evening.

Seas are currently running 10-15 ft offshore with waves in the
ches bay in the 3-6 ft range (up to 8 ft at the mouth) and will
be slow to subside early this week. Seas likely remain above 5
ft through late Tuesday. In addition, waves near the mouth of
the bay will most likely remain above 4 ft through late tonight.

Extended the high surf advisory until 21z Mon for all area
beaches (although seas may remain AOA 8 ft nearshore S of the
va-nc border through the first part of tonight).

Tides coastal flooding
As of 715 pm est Sunday...

coastal flood warnings for portions of southeast virginia have
been replaced with coastal flood advisories on this update.

Previous discussion: tidal anomalies are generally 1.75-2.5 ft
over the lower ches bay, james river, and bayside of northampton
county this aftn. Winds have turned more to the N (compared to
ne on Saturday). Minor to moderate flooding was observed with
today's high tide cycle from the va middle peninsula ERN shore
swd to va beach outer banks currituck. Water levels at jamestown
are currently cresting ~0.1 ft above moderate flood thresholds,
while water levels have receded elsewhere where warnings were
in effect.

Therefore, have replaced all warnings with advisories (in
effect through Monday's high tide). In addition, extended the
advisory for the NRN neck middlesex county through Monday's high
tide. Will likely replace the warning with an advisory for
areas along the james river once water levels at jamestown fall
well below moderate flood thresholds (most likely sometime later
this evening). Coastal flood statements remain in effect for
the bayside of the lower md ERN shore through this evening's
high tide (where water levels will crest just below minor flood
thresholds). Will likely need an advisory for Monday's high
tide, but will let the statement expire before issuing any new
headlines.

Despite relatively high tidal anomalies, expect nuisance to
minor tidal flooding (at most) during tonight's high tide, given
that it is the smaller of the two astronomical tides. While
anomalies are expected to fall a bit over SRN portions of the
area on Monday, they will slowly rise in the mid upper ches
bay. Widespread minor tidal flooding is expected during Monday's
high tide cycle (as it is the higher of the two astronomical
tides). In fact, water levels could crest around moderate flood
thresholds at a couple of locations during the day on mon.

However, not confident enough to extend issue new warnings attm.

The threat for coastal flooding gradually diminishes across the
lower ches bay ocean by Tue (but continues in areas adjacent to
the mid upper ches bay). Therefore, advisories may need to be
extended in future forecast packages.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... Coastal flood advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for
mdz024-025.

High surf advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for mdz025.

Nc... Coastal flood advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for
ncz102.

High surf advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for ncz102.

Va... Coastal flood advisory until 7 pm est this evening for vaz089-
090-093-096-099-100-524.

Coastal flood advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for
vaz095-097-098.

High surf advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for
vaz098>100.

Coastal flood advisory until 10 pm est this evening for vaz075-
077-078-084>086-523-525.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 pm est Tuesday for anz650-652-654-
656-658.

Small craft advisory until 10 am est this morning for anz630-
631-633.

Small craft advisory until 1 am est Tuesday for anz634.

Small craft advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for anz632.

Small craft advisory until 7 am est this morning for anz638.

Synopsis... Lkb
near term... Alb mam
short term... Alb lkb
long term... Alb
aviation... Lkb mam
marine... Eri jdm
tides coastal flooding... Akq


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 11 mi44 min N 19 G 21 46°F 50°F1016.1 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 20 mi62 min NNE 8 G 12 44°F 46°F1013.7 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 20 mi50 min N 27 G 28 1012.6 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 21 mi38 min 44°F 52°F1015.5 hPa (-1.1)
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 31 mi50 min NNE 8 G 13
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 31 mi68 min NNW 2.9 42°F 1014 hPa42°F
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 33 mi50 min N 19 G 22 45°F 1012 hPa
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 34 mi56 min N 8.9 G 13 44°F 48°F1011 hPa
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 36 mi50 min N 12 G 14 44°F 52°F1011.8 hPa
44072 37 mi38 min E 21 G 25 46°F 52°F3 ft
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 37 mi62 min N 11 G 18 42°F 45°F1013.4 hPa
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 42 mi62 min N 16 G 19 49°F
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 42 mi50 min N 11 G 13 43°F 51°F1013.4 hPa
44041 - Jamestown, VA 44 mi38 min 41°F 50°F1012.8 hPa (-1.8)
44087 49 mi38 min 53°F6 ft

Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
West Point, Middle Peninsula Regional Airport, VA29 mi43 minNNW 45.00 miOvercast42°F41°F97%1013.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFYJ

Wind History from FYJ (wind in knots)
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2 days agoNE3CalmCalmN4N4CalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN5

Tide / Current Tables for Dividing Creek, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Dividing Creek
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:21 AM EST     1.03 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:48 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:18 AM EST     0.14 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:17 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 03:44 PM EST     1.26 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:52 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 10:22 PM EST     0.13 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:35 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.70.9110.90.70.40.20.10.20.30.60.81.11.21.31.210.70.40.20.10.2

Tide / Current Tables for Fleet Point, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Fleet Point
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:42 AM EST     0.99 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:48 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:51 AM EST     0.14 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:17 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 04:05 PM EST     1.20 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:51 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 10:35 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:55 PM EST     0.13 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.60.8110.90.70.50.30.20.10.20.40.70.91.11.21.210.80.50.30.20.1

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.