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PZZ545 Coastal Waters From Point Reyes To Pigeon Point California Out To 10 Nm- 818 Pm Pst Sun Dec 10 2023
Tonight..NW winds 15 to 25 knots. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. W swell 4 to 6 ft at 13 seconds.
Mon..NW winds 10 to 15 knots. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. W swell 4 to 5 ft at 12 seconds.
Mon night..NW winds 10 to 15 knots. Wind waves 4 to 5 ft. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 12 seconds. A slight chance of rain.
Tue..N winds 5 to 10 knots. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 11 seconds.
Tue night..N winds 5 to 10 knots. Wind waves 2 to 3 ft. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 10 seconds.
Wed..NE winds 5 to 10 knots. Wind waves 2 to 3 ft. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 10 seconds.
Wed night..NE winds 5 to 10 knots. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. W swell around 2 ft at 14 seconds.
Thu..E winds 5 to 10 knots. Wind waves 2 to 3 ft. SWell W 6 to 8 ft.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 knots. Wind waves 1 to 2 ft. W swell 3 to 5 ft and W 3 to 5 ft.
...san francisco bar/fourfathom bank forecast.....
in the deep water channel...mixed seas of 3 to 4 ft at 12 seconds.
across the bar...mixed seas of 4 to 5 ft at 12 seconds. Maximum ebb current of 1.1 kt at 02:45 am Monday and 3.8 kt at 02:26 pm Monday.

PZZ500 818 Pm Pst Sun Dec 10 2023
Synopsis for the central california coast and bays including the Monterey bay..Greater farallones...and cordell bank national marine sanctuaries...
quiet pattern over the next several days with high pressure dominating. Gusty winds build over the southern waters early this week as an upper level low deepens into the great basin. Slight chance of showers over the waters late Monday into Tuesday morning. Winds diminish into the later half of the week as high pressure builds once again. NEw storm system approaches next weekend.

FXUS66 KMTR 102358 AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 358 PM PST Sun Dec 10 2023

New AVIATION, MARINE

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 1140 PM PST Sat Dec 9 2023

Quiet weather this week with mild days and cool nights. A pattern change takes hold for next weekend into early next week with a likely return to wet and unsettled conditions.

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 125 PM PST Sun Dec 10 2023

Filtered sunshine across the Bay Area and Central Coast this afternoon. A pleasant afternoon with temps in the upper 50s to lows 70s.

After several nights of cold weather prompting Frost/Freeze headlines temperatures tonight will be warmer thanks to the cloud cover and approaching surface front from the NW. That being said, interior locations will still be chilly and in the mid to upper 30s.

A weak cold front off the OR coast will continue to track southward over the next 24 hour. This front will be weakening and ultimately wash out over the Bay Area and coastal waters. As this happens a few showers will be possible over the coastal waters Monday with some patchy drizzle along the immediate coast. While land areas look mostly dry, the front will bring some clouds and cooler conditions on Monday.

LONG TERM
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 133 PM PST Sun Dec 10 2023

For the upcoming work week - looks relatively quiet with mild and dry conditions. An upper level shortwave trough deepens into an upper low over NV and AZ Monday night through Tuesday. This low will result in a period of offshore flow midweek. Winds will be locally breezy over the North and East Bay Mts. The offshore flow will keep mild and dry conditions in place. As the low moves farther east midweek high pressure builds over CA. This building ridge will keep the warming trend in place. In fact, by Thursday and Friday well above normal temperatures will develop around the region. ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index gives confidence in this occurring and also highlights that it's unusual for this time of year. Highs will generally be in the 60s to mid 70s Thu/Fri. San Jose will be near record values for Friday.

A notable pattern shift in the weather is still expected next weekend. As noted before, both deterministic and ensemble guidance continue to advertise a robust jet moving across the Pacific. This upper level jet will bring a more active period to the West Coast, including CA this time. Current forecast brings rain back tot he region as early as Saturday. Additionally, latest Atmospheric River guidance gives about a 40-60% chance for an AR to reach CA late next weekend into the following. Exact details like: timing, amounts, intensity, will be fine tuned over the upcoming week.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 357 PM PST Sun Dec 10 2023

Currently seeing VFR at all terminals. Most terminals will retain this status throughout the TAF period; however, OAK and STS may not.
There is some hinting by hi-res models that OAK may obtain an MVFR or even potentially an IFR ceiling towards the end of the TAF period; however, confidence was not high enough to include such in the TAF. There is more hinting for STS to see something similar to what they saw last night in terms of low fog and low visibility; however, the passage of high clouds from a shortwave may hinder that opportunity, thus not giving high enough confidence to include in the TAF.

Vicinity of SFO... Currently VFR with calm winds and high clouds.
VFR will persist throughout the TAF period. Winds will remain breezy and onshore throughout the TAF period with northwesterly winds giving way to westerly winds by 22Z tomorrow afternoon.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR at both MRY and SNS, this will be the case throughout the TAF period. Winds will turn offshore and remain light overnight before returning to breezy onshore flow tomorrow.

MARINE
(Tonight through next Friday)
Issued at 357 PM PST Sun Dec 10 2023

The quiet weather over the waters continue to be under a high pressure system. Gusty wind continue to build in the southern waters as well as south of Point Sur creating hazardous conditions for small craft vessels with winds diminishing near the mid-week.
Slight chance for a shower or two tonight into Tuesday in the outer waters as a weak weather disturbance passes by.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM PST Tuesday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

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San Francisco Bar
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Sun -- 02:02 AM PST     2.59 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:56 AM PST     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:14 AM PST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:19 AM PST     5.97 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:03 PM PST     Moonset
Sun -- 03:18 PM PST     -0.39 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:51 PM PST     Sunset
Sun -- 10:23 PM PST     4.14 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

San Francisco Bar, California, Tide feet

South Channel
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Sun -- 12:36 AM PST     -0.82 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 03:27 AM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:55 AM PST     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:25 AM PST     0.99 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 07:14 AM PST     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:37 AM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 12:52 PM PST     -1.81 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 03:03 PM PST     Moonset
Sun -- 04:34 PM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:51 PM PST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:37 PM PST     1.33 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 11:22 PM PST     -0.01 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

South Channel, San Francisco Bay Approach, California Current, knots

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