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FXUS66 KHNX 102330 AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 330 PM PST Sun Dec 10 2023


UPDATE
Updated air quality issues section.

SYNOPSIS
Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 28 degrees will continue in rural areas of the San Joaquin Valley each night and early morning through Wednesday morning. A warming trend is anticipated Wednesday through Saturday. Dry weather will persist through at least the end of the week.

DISCUSSION
Under a ridge of high pressure extending northward over central California, the San Joaquin Valley experienced minimal fog development this morning, but overnight lows fell into freezing territory again. Currently we have plenty of sunshine, with just some scattered high clouds dropping over the top of the ridge, and our temperatures are on track to top out a few degrees above climatological normal temperatures this afternoon.

The upper ridge will be flattened as a shortwave trough moves into central California by later Monday, with a developing low pressure center dropping southward through the Great Basin region and into Arizona Tuesday and Wednesday. In this pattern, models continue to indicate limited significant fog development in the San Joaquin Valley. For tonight and early Monday morning, high resolution ensemble forecasts show the highest probabilities for visibilities of 1/4 mile or lower to be at around 30-50 percent in a narrow strip from around Merced to the Madera area. Colder than normal minimum temperatures will meanwhile continue for the next several days, with freezing early morning conditions in the San Joaquin Valley through Wednesday morning. Probabilities are around 30-50 percent for minimum temperatures of 32 degrees or lower in much of the non urban areas of the San Joaquin Valley Monday morning, and up to 40-70 percent for Tuesday morning. A Freeze Warning remains in effect for these areas through Wednesday morning.

High pressure rebuilds over the west coast ahead of a developing low pressure system for the second half of the week, and temperatures will trend upward to around 9-12 degrees above normal into next weekend. Dry conditions generally continue through the period, although blended model guidance suggests around 20 percent probabilities for some light precipitation over the area by next Sunday.


AVIATION
Areas of MVFR visibilities with local IFR or lower conditions will be possible in the San Joaqin Valley tonight and early Monday morning due to mist and fog. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail across Central California through at least the next 24 hours.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES
ISSUED: 12/10/2023 14:10 EXPIRES: 12/11/2023 23:59 On Monday December 11 2023, Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups in Fresno and Kern Counties. Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status is: No Burning For All in Fresno and Kern Counties. No Burning Unless Registered in Kings, Madera, Merced, and Tulare Counties. Burning Discouraged in Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia National Park and Forest.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low
medium
and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Freeze Warning until 8 AM PST Wednesday for CAZ301>303-305-306- 309>312-315.

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San Joaquin Valley, CA,