Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Modest Town, VA

KEY MESSAGES
1) Hot and humid conditions today along with scattered (potentially strong to severe) late day thunderstorms.

2) A cold front crosses the area early Saturday, bringing drier, and somewhat cooler temperatures to the region.

3) Hot and humid again Sunday, then trending cooler and somewhat unsettled next week. Sunday brings another chance of severe storms.

DISCUSSION
As of 305 PM EDT Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Hot and humid conditions today along with scattered (potentially strong to severe) late day thunderstorms.

Another hot day today with temperatures currently in the mid to upper 90s and dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Heat indices are in the lower 100s, nearing or exceeding 105F in some areas. CU clouds have been slow to develop this afternoon across the area, which has helped temperatures near 100F. Records highs will again be in jeopardy, see specifics in the Climate section below. The Heat Advisory remains in place for the majority of the area, outside of the VA/MD Eastern Shore, until 8PM tonight.

A cold front crosses the area tonight with a pre-frontal trough moving over the area this afternoon. This will allow for scattered showers and storms late this afternoon into late evening. Based on the minimal CU field developing over the area and the 18z sounding from RNK, there is a capped environment over the area. This could inhibit storm development, but once initiated, the environment is conducive of strong to severe storms. MLCAPE values are >2000 J/kg with decent lapse rates around 6-7 C/km in the mid-levels based on SPC mesoanalysis. This will give the storms the needed ingredients to become strong to severe. Another limiting factor is the lack of shear across the area, likely highest in the northern portions of the area, but still relatively minimal. Damaging winds are the primary threat, but isolated instances of damaging hail is possible as well. Isolated flash flooding is possible in heavy downpours, but given the quick moving nature expected, these instances should be localized. A Severe Weather Watch has been issued for the northern half of the area, including the cities of Richmond and Petersburg until 9 PM. An expansion of the watch may be needed south if storms based on storm trends.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A cold front crosses the area early Saturday, bringing drier, and somewhat cooler temperatures to the region.

Latest guidance continues to depict the upper level ridge shifting offshore tonight into the weekend as a strong upper trough/low across northern Ontario very slowly moves to the E-SE. While the airmass in the wake of the front will remain warm, the wind shift to N-NE should lead to cooler conditions Saturday, especially at the coast, along with lower dewpoints area-wide (50s/60s compared to the 60s/70s we have been seeing). High temperatures will range from the mid-upper 80s along the coast, to the lower 90s inland.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Hot and humid again Sunday, then trending cooler and somewhat unsettled next week. Sunday brings another chance of severe storms.

Low level southerly flow returns Sunday into early Monday ahead of the next cold front. At this time, most of the model guidance depicts the upper level flow remaining W-SW beyond that, which suggests the front will tend to stall into the middle of next week.
With the front stalling, ample moisture will remain over the area and there will be another chance for severe storms Sunday. There is a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms (2 out of 5) on Sunday for a majority of our VA and MD counties and a Marginal Risk (1 out of 5)
for NE NC. Damaging wind gusts will likely be the main threat with any stronger storms on Sunday. WPC has introduced a small Marginal Excessive Rainfall Outlook for the coastal areas, as well.
Temperatures on Sunday will rebound some with highs in the mid 90s and heat indices in the upper 90s to lower 100s, but a Heat Advisory is not looking likely at this time. It will trend cooler into next week, with highs falling back into the 80s along with at least diurnal showers and storms continuing.

AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 140 PM EDT Friday...

VFR conditions continue this afternoon with mostly clear skies. Some CU has begun developing over the SE area, including ORF and ECG.
Scattered showers and storms are expected this evening across the area moving west to east. Confidence is not high enough to include TEMPOs for the terminals, but PROB30s remain at all terminals staggering start times from west to east beginning at 22z at RIC and SBY to 00z at ECG. Any storms will bring the potential for strong wind gusts, localized VSBY restrictions, and heavy rain. Storms will dissipate late this evening, with VFR conditions returning late tonight into Saturday morning. Outside of convection, winds will turn from the W to N by Saturday morning.

Outlook: Dry and VFR conditions will prevail Saturday. Another chance of showers and storms returns Sunday, which could impact flight restrictions.

MARINE
As of 255 PM EDT Friday...

Benign conditions are expected today and through most of the weekend. Latest obs and buoy reports show S-SW winds of 5-10 kt, with occasional gusts to ~15 kt in the lower Bay and over the coastal waters. Seas are averaging around 2 ft, with waves in the bay and rivers around 1 ft or less.

A weak cold front crosses the area late tonight into early Saturday morning. Scattered showers and storms are possible late this afternoon and into this evening preceding the frontal passage, with the best chances over the middle/upper Bay and northern coastal waters. Convection should wane after 10 PM through the early morning hours as the front drops south across the region, causing winds to shift N-NW post-frontal. Minimal CAA is anticipated and thus, little to no surge of north winds is expected. However, a brief 2-4 hour period of 10-15 kt gusts remains possible in the lower and mid Bay after midnight tonight through sunrise due to localized channeling effects.

High pressure quickly rebuilds over the waters from the west late tonight and Saturday. This will result in light and variable winds for the mid to late morning hours into Saturday afternoon. Winds then back to the SSE-SE late Saturday afternoon and night into Sunday ahead of a stronger cold front, which crosses the waters Sunday evening. Seas increase to 3-4 ft Sunday evening with waves in the Bay at ~2 ft. A brief period of gusts to ~20 kt is possible in the lower Bay during Sunday evening, with a secondary surge of north winds around 15-20 kt forecast behind the front late Sunday night into early Monday.

CLIMATE
Record high temperatures were set on Thursday, 6/11 at RIC (98)
and SBY (98). A record high minimum temperature was tied at ORF (75).

Record high and record high minimum temperatures for today (Friday, 6/12):

Record High Temperatures:

- Date: Fri 6/12

- ORF: 99 (1986)
- RIC: 100 (1914)
- SBY: 98 (1914)
- ECG: 97 (1947)

Record High Min Temperatures:

- Date: Fri 6/12

- ORF: 76 (2016)
- RIC: 74 (1986)
- SBY: 75 (1947)
- ECG: 76 (2016)

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ012>017- 030>032-102.
VA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ048-060>062- 064>069-075>090-092-097-098-509>525-528>531.
MARINE...None.