Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Gargatha, VA

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 350 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Flood Watch has been extended into late tonight for NE NC as additional rounds of rainfall is expected today.

- Mostly cloudy and cooler. Highs in the low to mid 70s north, mid to upper 70s central VA, upper 70s to low 80s south central and southeast VA into NE NC.

Unsettled weather continues as the stationary front remains just to the south of the CWA Sfc low pressure associated with the frontal boundary will develop offshore this morning, which will help prevent instability to the north. Heavy rainfall with the front remains to be a concern today, mostly for the NE NC counties as PW values remain well above climo. Rainfall totals for today are less than yesterday (1-2" expected, with locally higher amounts possible), but with the ground saturation from yesterday and last night's showers, this area is more prone to flash flooding. Expected timing for these showers will be in the afternoon to late evening. WPC has issued a Slight ERO for the NE NC to account for the rainfall today. The Flood Watch for NE NC has been extended through late tonight. North of the boundary will be drier, but slight chc PoPs remain up to the RIC metro. High temps today will range from the lower 70s in the piedmont and Eastern Shore to the lower 80s in NE NC.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 350 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Remaining unsettled Tuesday with a few late day strong to severe storms possible.

- Hot and mainly dry Wednesday.

Another shortwave, this one a bit stronger, is expected to approach from the west with the upper trough on Tuesday. The stationary front will be pushed out of the area, allowing afternoon instability to return. Shear values are not impressive (20-30 kt at best), but decent mid level lapse rates may make up for the lack of shear. The primary threat from any severe storm is damaging winds, with the threat mostly limited to the piedmont. SPC has placed a Marginal Risk for severe weather in this area.

Tuesday's highs will be warm in the mid to upper 80s (lower 80s on the Eastern Shore). Precip chances will decrease into Wednesday as upper air ridging expands north towards the region. This will allow highs on Wednesday to be in the lower 90s. With a humid airmass, heat indices may rise above 100F. Given the wet soils, suspect the temperatures may not get quite as hot as guidance, but that the humidity will remain high.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 350 AM EDT Monday...

Key Message:

- Temperatures trending back above normal by mid to late week.

- Rain chances return to near climo.

Model 850 mb temperatures rise to 19-21C Thursday, which would support highs into the low- mid 90s, along with continued moderate to high humidity. Heat indices will be the highest on Thursday, likely above 100F, possibly close to headline criteria in the SE (though this is several days out so confidence is not high). Latest ensemble guidance continues to support an upper level trough pushing a cold front through the region Thursday. There is a Slight Risk of severe weather with this front. Friday through the weekend appear to be mostly dry (and slightly cooler on Friday). Hot temperatures return into early next week based on model agreement on upper level ridging.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 700 AM EDT Monday...

Widespread IFR/LIFR CIGs across area terminals to begin the 12z TAF period are likely to persist through at least the mid to late morning hours at area terminals today, with IFR to persist through much of the day. At this time, trends are keeping ECG CIGs in MVFR range through the day, with the remaining terminals to remain in IFR to low- end MVFR through Monday evening. A lower shower/tstm coverage is expected this afternoon, mainly impacting ECG through this afternoon. Winds remain NNE 5-8 kt today, becoming light/variable this evening.

Outlook: CIGs quickly fall back into IFR/LIFR range this evening into early Tuesday, with patchy fog again likely. Additional shower/tstm chances are expected Tue aftn/evening, with a lower coverage Wednesday. A cold front will bring another round of scattered showers/tstms later Thu/Thu night.

MARINE
As of 310 AM EDT Monday...

Key Message:

- Relatively benign across the marine area through midweek outside of convection.

Early this morning, wavy frontal boundary was oriented just south of the local waters. Latest obs reveal NE winds ~10kt across the northern waters, with more variable winds over southern waters closer to the front. Latest buoy reports indicating seas of 3-4ft, highest north of Parramore Island, with waves 1-2ft.

The quasi-stationary frontal boundary will meander just south of the area through midweek. Another round of showers and thunderstorms are expected across southern waters this afternoon, which may lead to additional MWS/SMWs this evening and overnight. Farther north, winds remain E-NE ~10-15kt. Seas remain at 3-4ft through tonight. Onshore flow continues into Tuesday, but ~10kt through the afternoon. Winds veer around to the S-SE, then SW Tuesday night into Wednesday, as the front lifts back north as a warm front in response to high pressure settling out into the western Atlantic. Expecting warmer and breezier conditions for Wed/Thurs ahead of an approaching cold front. Current forecast is for ~15kt with gusts to ~ 20 kt, but cannot totally rule out a brief SCA at this point.

Rip current risk is moderate N and low S today and low rip risk tomorrow.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...Flood Watch through late tonight for NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.