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FXUS63 KLSX 302335 AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 535 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread rain will fall tonight with some areas picking up over 1 inch in total. Clouds and light rain or drizzle will linger into Friday, but the bulk of the wet weather occurs tonight.

- Seasonable temperatures are expected through the weekend and into early next week, but as we get deeper into next week warmer temperatures become more likely. Precipitation chances are low after this weekend.



SHORT TERM
(Through Late Friday Night)
Issued at 208 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

Low level warm, moist advection has led to showery weather across the southern half of the forecast area today. While this hasn't amounted to much so far, a more steady and significant rainfall is on the way shortly. As an upper trough is exiting the Rockies and into the Plains, Gulf of Mexico moisture is being pulled northward through Texas. Widespread rain has already begun across Oklahoma and Arkansas to the north of a warm front lifting out of Texas. It's this more substantial round of warm, moist advection that will cause the bulk of our rainfall tonight as this moisture lifts through our region tonight. The bulk of the rain falls within a smaller 6 hour window roughly from 10PM to 4AM, with some variation from west to east as it progresses through the region.
While this will be the most substantial rainfall we've seen since October with widespread 0.5 - 1.25 amounts, it is not expected to cause any significant impacts. A rumble of thunder is possible where low level moist advection leads to brief periods of elevated instability, but the main story here is the rain.

Surface low pressure tracks northeast along a developing surface front from Oklahoma northeast into central Illinois. The rain south of the front will shut off as a dry slot moves through, but north of the the low track rain persists longer into Friday morning across northeast Missouri and western Illinois. We have been watching for the potential for cold air to infiltrate the north side of this system and bring some wintry precipitation, but all indications are that this will remain north of our area tonight into Friday morning.
As the low pulls away on Friday, clouds and possibly some light rain or drizzle will linger through the day, but a drying trend takes hold by evening.

Kimble

LONG TERM
(Saturday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 208 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

Southwesterly flow aloft continues across the area this weekend while the primary upper trough axis remains to the west. This will finally pull off to the east and cross through our region Saturday night into Sunday morning. This wave takes a similar track to the last one, but it lacks the deep moisture connection this time. While there is a good chance of precipitation (about 50 percent) as this moves through it, the bulk of it is likely to fall north of the low track. Amounts will be much less than the previous system. While the forecast calls for all rain with this one at the moment, there are some probabilities in the latest ensemble data that suggest snow is possible (about 20 percent) across the northern half of the forecast area. This will all depend on the availability of the cold air and where precipitation is able to develop. Models are still honing in on how this one will evolve with much of the forcing being driven by the mid and upper level trough axis.

In the wake of this trough we begin to transition to northwest flow aloft across the central US in between the trough in the East and a ridge in the West. While there remains a good degree of uncertainty in the temperature forecast next week, the general idea is for temperatures to be near or slightly above normal to start the week as the core of the colder air within the trough remains to the northeast of us. Precipitation chances are low but not zero as there may be a wave or two that drops southeast through the northwest flow with limited moisture to work with. Eventually, though, by the end of the week the western ridge nudges far enough east that we get more solidly in on the warmer air. This will be most pronounced by Thursday with temperatures warming well above normal.

Kimble

AVIATION
(For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening)
Issued at 526 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

Ceilings are expected to remain IFR or LIFR through the period with MVFR or IFR visibilities in rain and fog through midday on Friday. South to southeasterly winds will veer out of the west on Friday as a cold front moves through the terminals.

Britt

LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...None.
IL...None.

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