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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ozora, MO

February 17, 2025 3:19 PM CST (21:19 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:46 AM   Sunset 5:44 PM
Moonrise 10:51 PM   Moonset 9:00 AM 
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ozora, MO
   
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Area Discussion for St. Louis, MO
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FXUS63 KLSX 171710 AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 1110 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025

KEY MESSAGES

- Light snow is likely (60 to 80 percent chance) mid-morning through afternoon across central, northeastern MO and west- central IL with 1 to locally 2" of snowfall.

- Although there is potential for a band of accumulating snowfall overnight tonight, more widespread accumulating snowfall is expected (80 to near 100 percent chance) Tuesday afternoon into early Wednesday morning, mainly along/south of I-70. Confidence in heavy snowfall (5"+) is highest across southeastern MO.

- Prolonged bitter cold is expected much of this week with dangerous winds chills at times. Temperatures are not expected to warm back above 32 F until this weekend.

SHORT TERM
(Through Late Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 402 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025

Upper-level zonal flow will remain in place over the Mid-Mississippi River Valley today, with multiple perturbations navigating this flow through tonight. Aside from quickly increasing upper/mid-level moisture and clouds this morning, a frontogenetically driven band of light snow, ongoing across NE and northern KS early this morning, is anticipated to lift through portions of central, northeastern MO and west-central IL from mid-morning through the afternoon, before gradually dissipating. In these areas, the latest HRRR LPMM indicates QPF less than 0.10" of total QPF. Forecast soundings depict a deep DGZ but generally weak or transient ascent and only partial saturation of the layer. Considering these factors, around 1" to locally 2" of snowfall is anticipated. Although these amounts are light, cold ground temperatures with the established cold airmass and temperatures in the teens F, should permit efficient snow accumulation on roadways. For this reason a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for those areas from 6 am this morning through 6 pm this evening. Across east-central MO and south-central IL, confidence is lower in accumulating snow occurring with weaker forcing and greater low-level dry air to overcome. Otherwise, clouds will blanket much of the CWA today, with well-below average temperatures slightly cooler than Sunday.

This evening through tonight, short-term model guidance is indicating that low to mid-level transient frontogenesis will ebb and flow beneath passing upper-level perturbations and jet streak entrance regions, resulting in the potential for one or more additional bands of snow ahead of more widespread snow expected to arrive on Tuesday with an approaching upper-level trough. Model guidance vary on the exact placement and intensity of these snow bands, but has had the most consistency south of I-70 and across southeastern MO/southwestern IL with the HRRR LPMM of QPF between 0.10 and 0.20", supporting 1" to locally 3" within this snow band through sunrise Tuesday considering SLRs above climatological averages. Therefore, the start time of the Winter Storm Watch/Warning has not been changed, but may need to be delayed in future forecast packages outside of those areas, where at least flurries or light snow accumulating up to a dusting are possible, but confidence is lower in accumulating snowfall through Tuesday morning.

In addition to snow, dangerous wind chills are also expected across central, northeastern MO and west-central and south-central MO tonight into Tuesday morning where temperatures in the single digits to just below 0 F will combine with sustained northerly surface winds of 10 to 14 mph to produce wind chills as low as -20 F.

Pfahler

LONG TERM
(Tuesday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 402 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025

An upper-level trough is progged to track across the Central Plains and Mid-Mississippi River Valley Tuesday afternoon through early Wednesday morning, leading to more widespread accumulating snowfall across much of the CWA There is still variability in the amplitude of the trough and track of the attendant 850-hPa cyclone, ranging from central to northern AR. The track of this cyclone will influence the most favorable corridor of heaviest snowfall. Based on past research (Browne & Younkin 1970) these tracks would favor a corridor of heaviest snowfall somewhere across southern MO, and in many scenarios southeastern MO.

Broad low to mid-level WAA/isentropic ascent will lead to a broad shield of accumulating snow spreading northeastward into the CWA Tuesday afternoon through evening, but how quickly this process occurs and its northern limit is still uncertain as it encounters drier, increasingly northeasterly low-level flow. These factors lead to lower confidence in snowfall amounts close to the I-70 corridor, where the Winter Storm Watch has been maintained. To the south, across southeastern MO, confidence is much higher in accumulating snow, with signals for strong mid-level frontogenesis and some conditional symmetric instability increasing support for one or more bands of heavy snowfall Tuesday evening. In fact, HRRR probabilities of 0.5"+/hour snowfall rates in southeastern MO reach 50 to 70 percent Tuesday evening, which are even underdone since a 10:1 SLR is assumed. Overnight Tuesday night, snow will gradually decrease in intensity as the strongest forcing translates to the east with the trough, then end from west to east through early Wednesday morning.

The interquartile range of total QPF in the NBM ranges from 0.35 to 0.75" in southeastern MO and closer to 0.15 to 0.50" along the I-70 corridor. Per forecast soundings, the cold airmass in place will result in a very deep DGZ with ascent throughout, most vigorous in the corridors of strong mid-level frontogenesis. Above climatological average (10-12:1) SLRs are favored in these conditions, but strong winds (30+ kt) in the top portion of the DGZ where ascent is maximized could fracture developing dendrites and limit SLRs from significantly exceeding climatology and generally 14- 17:1. NBM probabilities of total snowfall 5"+ are highest (70 to 80 percent) in southeastern MO and with signals for heavy snowfall, that part of the CWA has been upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning.
However, to the north and along the I-70 corridor, the Winter Storm Watch has been maintained where probabilities of total snowfall 5"+ are closer to 30 to 50 percent, there is more uncertainty, and there is the greatest sensitivity to any northward or southward shifts in model guidance over the next 12 to 24 hours.

Some light snow showers and flurries are possible (20 percent chance) on Wednesday with another upper-level trough passing, but the main story will be the invasion of an anomalously strong arctic anticyclone into the Central Plains and Mid-Mississippi River Valley late Wednesday into Friday morning. With 850-hPa temperatures in the accompanying arctic airmass settling near the 1st climatological percentile, a prolonged period of bitter cold temperatures is expected to grasp the area with high temperatures in the teens F and low temperatures in the single digits to below 0 F, nearing daily records Thursday morning. With even light northerly winds along the eastern periphery of the anticyclone, wind chills are likely to reach dangerous levels once again, but across most, if not all of the CWA Over the weekend, the upper-level flow pattern across the Central CONUS is expected to become more progressive with a potential upper-level trough acting to both weak and dislodge the anticyclone with a stark warming trend toward average, supported unanimously by ensemble model guidance and the NBM.

Pfahler

AVIATION
(For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1106 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025

The primary concern during the 18Z TAF period continues to be the timing of rounds of light snow, which is expected to impact all terminals on and off through the end of the period. Light snow is already ongoing at many terminals at the start of the period, and will continue to do so as it drifts northeast and weakens this afternoon. Additional light snow is likely to impact terminals this evening and overnight, with minor accumulations and visibility reductions possible, along with ceiling reductions to MVFR. Snow rates are likely to diminish tomorrow morning, especially at UIN, but additional snow is likely to impact I-70 corridor terminals near or just beyond the end of the period. This latter round has a greater chance of producing impactful accumulations/visibility reductions.

BRC

CLIMATE
Issued at 230 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2025

Record low temperatures are possible late this week. Here's a list of some of the record low temperatures during the coldest period of the forecast.

ST LOUIS COLUMBIA QUINCY Feb 19 -3 in 1936 -6 in 1903 -11 in 1903 Feb 20 -4 in 1885 0 in 1929 -3 in 1929



LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to noon CST Tuesday for Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO- Lincoln MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO- Pike MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO.

Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through late Tuesday night for Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO- Jefferson MO-Lincoln MO-Moniteau MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO- Saint Charles MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Warren MO.

Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for Audrain MO-Boone MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO- Shelby MO.

Winter Storm Warning from 3 AM Tuesday to 6 AM CST Wednesday for Crawford MO-Iron MO-Madison MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Francois MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Washington MO.

IL...Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to noon CST Tuesday for Adams IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL- Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL.

Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through late Tuesday night for Bond IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Madison IL-Marion IL- Monroe IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington IL.

Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for Adams IL.


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Airport Reports
   
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KPCD PERRYVILLE RGNL,MO 12 sm24 minN 0510 smOvercast25°F14°F63%30.37
KFAM FARMINGTON RGNL,MO 20 sm23 minNNW 0410 smOvercast25°F10°F54%30.31

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