Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ozora, MO

SHORT TERM
(Through Late Friday Night)
Issued at 135 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Benign weather can be expected for the next couple of days as we await this weekend's potential rain. Lingering high surface pressure, low humidity, and the slow eastward migration of an upper ridge are the main drivers of this pleasant end to the work week, but it is not likely to last beyond Saturday morning as a low pressure system arrives from the west.

In the meantime, there is little to discuss in the short term aside from a few relatively minor features. Early this afternoon, a subtle shortwave impulse is slowly traversing the ambient northwesterly flow aloft and through the middle Mississippi Valley, and this is producing some mid level cloud cover and perhaps some very light rain and/or virga both just to perhaps our northeast and southwest.
However, little, if any precipitation is reaching the surface in our area, and most areas are still managing to see plenty of sun as well. Temperatures as of noon are already in the low 50s in most places, and are expected to rise another 2-4 degrees before plateauing later this afternoon.

Overnight, lingering cloud cover is expected to diminish, and weakening winds should allow for some relatively efficient radiative that will result in morning lows near the freezing mark. During the day tomorrow, the upper ridge will slide further east and even amplify slightly, which will combine with the persistent light south to southwest flow to boost temperatures into the mid 50s to mid 60s.
While this isn't threatening daily temperature records, it is nonetheless well above seasonal averages, and in some cases by as much as 15 to 20 degrees. Meanwhile, another dry day is expected, with perhaps some increasing cirrus to hint at Saturday's low pressure system.

BRC

LONG TERM
(Saturday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 135 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Once again, the main focus of the long term forecast period is the arrival of a low pressure system from the west between Saturday and Sunday. While there is still some lingering uncertainty regarding the expected rainfall amounts and distribution, confidence continues to incrementally increase that a large footprint of our area will see at least some measurable rainfall, with the potential for a meaningful and much needed soaking rain generally across the southern half of Missouri and southern third of Illinois.

As we begin the day Saturday, high confidence exists that a shortwave and attendant surface low will move through the southern plains and into the lower Mississippi River Valley as the day wears on. Increasing warm air advection ahead of this low will drive isentropic ascent, particularly as it meets and overruns a stalled warm front (or stationary front) located somewhere across southern Missouri. This will also transport a moisture rich airmass northward and into our area, with ensemble mean precipitable water values reaching or exceeding the 95th percentile of climatology. While ensemble guidance has been relatively slow to converge on a common solution for the track and strength of this system, this has improved considerably in the past couple of days, and now all four derived LREF ensemble clusters reduce at least some precipitation across a majority of our area, with a notable decrease in variability between them. Meanwhile, these clusters have also shown a more equitable distribution among the various model suites, and both factors add confidence to the idea that precipitation is likely (70-90+%) in all but our northernmost areas between early Saturday and early Sunday.

What remains less certain is the exact amounts, as there remains some considerable QPF spread among clusters, even in the southern areas where rain is nearly certain. Deterministic model data strongly suggests that this rain will be generally stratiform in nature, which will limit the rain rates and take the higher end impacts (like flash flooding) off the table for the most part. Even still, even a slight shift toward the more northerly or southerly cluster solutions could make a big difference in the distribution of the more substantial rain totals. As noted in the previous discussion, the spread in precipitation totals remains relatively large, even though this gap has narrowed slightly since this morning's forecast. In the areas with the highest ceiling for precipitation (south of I-70 and into the heart of the Ozarks), the difference between the 25th and 75th percentiles is now about 3/4 of an inch, which rises significantly to about 1.5 inches between the 10th and 90th percentiles. All of that is to say that while there is a reasonable upper end potential (50 to 90th percentile)
to see anywhere from 1 to 2.5 inches of beneficial, soaking rain in these areas, a lower end scenario (10th to 50th) with amounts of only 1/4 to 1 inch is also well within reason.

Farther north, while the chance of seeing at least some measurable rain has increased, the potential for meaningful amounts (more than 1/2 inch) remains relatively low (~10 to 30%), and may still even be overdone in ensemble forecasts in spite of this increase. The main reason for this is that we continue to expect a sharp gradient in precipitation amounts along the northern flank of this system, and this is likely not being adequately captured in blended ensemble fields. As such, a sharp dropoff in rain amounts somewhere north of the Ozarks remains likely, and areas north of that gradient will largely miss out on rain amounts that would provide any meaningful drought improvement.

Finally, there is also some variability in the timing of precipitation, but this window has remained relatively consistent overall and we continue to expect that the most substantial rain will fall between Saturday afternoon and late Saturday night. On the front and back end of the main precipitation window, some rain may begin as early as sunrise Saturday morning in central/southeast Missouri, and the last of the rain is expected to finally wind down from west to east sometime Sunday morning.

After the rain ends, confidence remains high that we will enter an extended period of seasonably warm temperatures and a lack of precipitation that will carry through mid week. This will be thanks to both a quickly building ridge from the west and the resumption of robust southerly and eventually southwesterly flow. On Tuesday and Wednesday, ensemble mean (LREF) 850mb temperatures reach the 98th percentile of climatology, translating to surface temperatures very likely (70+%) to climb above 60 degrees by Wednesday, and possibly (20 to 40%) near or above 70 degrees in many areas. We will also need to keep an eye on the potential for fire weather concerns during the mid-week period, particularly Wednesday when breezy southwesterlies are likely to develop in tandem with the warmest day of the week.

Over the latter half of the work week, forecast confidence decreases considerably due to the arrival of one or more cold fronts. Ensemble spread is very high during this period, but while we don't have much confidence in the day to day details, an overall cooling trend is favored Thursday through the weekend.

BRC

AVIATION
(For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening)
Issued at 520 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Dry and VFR conditions are forecast through the end of the period.

Jaja

LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...None.
IL...None.