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PZZ531 San Francisco Bay South Of The Bay Bridge- 230 Pm Pdt Wed Oct 4 2023
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming southeast around 5 knots after midnight.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 knots.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots.
Fri..N winds 5 to 10 knots.
Fri night..W winds 10 to 15 knots.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 15 knots.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 10 knots.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 knots.
Columbus day..W winds 5 to 10 knots.

PZZ500 230 Pm Pdt Wed Oct 4 2023
Synopsis for the central california coast and bays including the Monterey bay..Greater farallones...and cordell bank national marine sanctuaries...
generally light to moderate north winds expected through the weekend. Current northwest swell continues to diminish through the weekend and a new, light northwest swell train arrives early Friday. Light southerly swell continues into next week.

FXUS66 KMTR 042345 AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 445 PM PDT Wed Oct 4 2023

New AVIATION, MARINE

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 239 PM PDT Wed Oct 4 2023

Warm temperatures expected through the end of the week with elevated HeatRisk across much of the interior. A Heat Advisory is in effect for SF Peninsula, SF Bay Shoreline, Santa Clara Valley (including San Jose), and the Santa Cruz Mountains starting at 11 am Thursday lasting until 11 pm Friday. Heat will begin to ease on Saturday but will still 5 to 15 degrees above climatological normals. Cooler temperatures really arrive Sunday into early next week as pattern change will be underway.

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 239 PM PDT Wed Oct 4 2023

Upper level ridging persists offshore with the apex of high pressure (591 dm) west of the Pacific NW. 500 mb heights will slowly rise across the Bay Area and Central coast today as this high pressure feature nudges east today. Associated warmer temperatures aloft are also expected to move in through the day today. In addition, offshore (NE) flow aloft and subsequent downsloping winds is contributing to additional warming for some valley regions (e.g.
North Bay valleys, Santa Clara Valley) and coastal spots (e.g.
Santa Cruz). All these factors in addition to those warmer temperatures aloft plus a compressed/nonexistent marine layer will result in warmer temperatures across the region today.

Today is the start of the anticipated warmup with temperatures already climbing early this afternoon. Temperatures will max out today in the low 90s across interior valleys and mid 90s for the hills (Coastal NB Mtns, East Bay Hills, SC Mtns, for example). Near the coast, temperatures will reach mid 80s. There's more widespread Moderate HeatRisk today across the 101 corridor from the North Bay down to Salinas, meaning those sensitive to heat should use caution today if planning to be outside. Not expecting any official records to be broken today, however.

Warming trend continues into tomorrow. NBM features a high likelihood (70-100%) of max temps over 90 degrees across much of the interior valleys, the Santa Lucias, and the Santa Cruz Mountains.
For temperatures over 100 degrees, NBM highlights the SC Mountains with a high likelihood for hot spots like Ben Lomond tucked in the hwy 9 corridor and a moderate chance for southern Santa Clara Valley (places like Gilroy). Elevated HeatRisk will persist with Moderate HeatRisk blanketing much of the interior tomorrow, while Major HeatRisk is anticipated across the Santa Clara Valley, portions of the bay shoreline as well as the Santa Cruz Mountains. Major HeatRisk means that anyone without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration has a higher chance of being impacted by heat illnesses if precautions are not taken.

Due to widespread elevated HeatRisk tomorrow, a Heat Advisory has been issued for the SF Peninsula, the SF Bay Shoreline, the Santa Cruz Mountains, and the Santa Clara Valley from 11 am tomorrow through 11 pm Friday. Continue to practice heat safety, stay hydrated, and don't perform strenuous activity during peak heating in the afternoon.

LONG TERM
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 239 PM PDT Wed Oct 4 2023

High pressure will continue to gradually build in through the end of the week with warm and dry airmass will persisting over the area.
Airmass aloft will continue to warm and by Thursday night, 850 mb temps approach the 90th percentile values for this time of year at 20-21 deg C (68-69 F) according to OAK sounding climatology.
Overnight lows will be warmer Thursday into Friday with lows in the mid 60s across the Bay Shoreline and up to low 70s near across thermal belts (generally above 1500 feet). Low 60s are forecast for coastal regions and NB Valleys, so there will be some relief for those spots. Moderate to Major HeatRisk continues Friday. As such, the Heat Advisory remains in effect through 11 PM Friday.

By Saturday, warm temperatures will continue but signs of a cooldown will be in sight as apex of ridge shifts east into the Intermountain West. Much cooler temperatures are expected by Sunday into early next week thanks to an incoming upper low that will move across the Pacific NW/NorCal. There's even a very small chance for light rain late Monday into Tuesday. We will continue to monitor closely!

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 445 PM PDT Wed Oct 4 2023

High confidence in VFR through the TAF period across the region.
Breezy offshore flow continues for the inland terminals, with onshore flow closer to the coast. Winds diminish overnight, with generally light winds Thursday afternoon

Vicinity of SFO... VFR through the TAF period. Breezy northwest winds developing for a couple hours today, before resuming on Thursday.

SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals... VFR through the TAF period. Breezy onshore flow, up to 10-12 knots, until the evening hours. Winds diminish and become offshore overnight and Thursday morning, until onshore flow reasserts itself in the afternoon hours.

MARINE
(Tonight through next Monday)
Issued at 445 PM PDT Wed Oct 4 2023

Generally light to moderate north winds expected through the weekend. Current northwest swell continues to diminish through the weekend and a new, light northwest swell train arrives early Friday. Light southerly swell continues into next week.

CLIMATE

Record high data for this week:

Location Oct 4th Oct 5th Oct 6th Oct 7th ------------------------------------------------------------------ Santa Rosa 101 1920 103 1933 102 1930 99 1996 Kentfield 99 1987 100 1987 97 1930 100 1996 Napa 100 1987 101 1987 96 1930 99 1996 Richmond 99 1987 99 1987 91 1996 96 1996 Livermore 106 1980 100 1980 100 2014 101 1980 San Francisco 100 1987 102 1987 94 1992 98 1996 SFO 95 1987 99 1987 92 1992 92 1996 Redwood City 101 1980 99 1987 99 1987 95 1996 Half Moon Bay 87 1953 82 2013 87 1972 89 1992 Oakland City 92 2014 96 1987 93 1976 90 1992 Salinas 100 1987 105 1987 95 1972 94 1996 King City 106 1944 105 1933 100 1996 102 1996

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Thursday to 11 PM PDT Friday for CAZ006- 508-512-513.

PZ...None.

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North Point
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:02 AM PDT     4.71 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:07 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:34 AM PDT     3.09 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:12 PM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 03:33 PM PDT     5.92 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:48 PM PDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:21 PM PDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:36 PM PDT     0.10 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

North Point, Pier 41, San Francisco Bay, California, Tide feet

Alcatraz Island S
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:42 AM PDT     1.66 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 06:00 AM PDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:07 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:02 AM PDT     -1.10 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 11:20 AM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 01:12 PM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 02:18 PM PDT     0.98 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 04:51 PM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:48 PM PDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:13 PM PDT     -2.44 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 10:21 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Alcatraz Island S, San Francisco Bay, California Current, knots

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