Friday, August23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Warsaw, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:30AMSunset 7:53PM Friday August 23, 2019 2:28 AM EDT (06:28 UTC) Moonrise 11:24PMMoonset 12:56PM Illumination 48% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ537 Tidal Potomac From Cobb Island To Smith Point- 135 Am Edt Fri Aug 23 2019
Overnight..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Scattered showers with isolated tstms.
Fri..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Numerous showers. Patchy fog.
Fri night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft. Showers likely. Patchy fog.
Sat..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Sat night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Sun..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Sun night..NE winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Mon..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 135 Am Edt Fri Aug 23 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A cold front will approach the waters tonight, then stall over the carolinas on Saturday. High pressure will then settle over the area Saturday into Sunday. Small craft advisories are possible over the southern waters Friday night through Sunday .


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Warsaw town, VA
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location: 37.82, -76.69     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 230600
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
200 am edt Fri aug 23 2019

Synopsis
Trough of low pressure will remain over the local area overnight.

A cold front slowly crosses the area on Friday nearly stalling
out near the nc va line Friday night into Saturday, before
finally pushing through the carolinas late Saturday into Sunday.

Near term until 6 am this morning
As of 925 pm edt Thursday...

convection winding down through the rest of the night. Otw... Vrb
clouds-partly cloudy W lows in the l70s W to the m70s e.

Short term 6 am this morning through Sunday
As of 345 pm edt Thursday...

cold front begins to cross the area from the NW on Friday but will
likely only make it to northern to central va by the afternoon. 0-
6km mean wind will become closely aligned with the stalling front.

This will bring a concern of training storms especially on Friday
evening. Pwat values will be in the 2-2.5 inch range. Wpc has placed
se va and NE nc in a slight risk for excessive rainfall. Right now
have likely pops in this region as numerous showers and
thunderstorms are expected. High temps Friday will be a bit cooler
across the north with upper 70s to lower 80s, but mid to upper 80s
across southern va and NE nc ahead of the front.

The sfc cold front will continue to progress through southern va
in nc on Friday evening with showers expected to the north and
convection still on the southern side of the frontal boundary.

The models are have some difficulty resolving the frontal
position with the NAM a little farther south with the front to
begin the period. So have ramped up pops a little higher to
categorical levels in the south Friday evening into the
overnight hours. By Saturday morning the front will be south of
the county warning area into central and southern nc. But with
the lingering low level moisture the clearing will be slow so
have held on to pops longer in the south and slowed the clearing
of the clouds a bit more. With the lingering clouds,
temperatures will be moving little during the day with highs in
the upper 70s to around 80. Could be a touch cooler should the
rain be more persistent across southern portions of the area.

For Sat night into Sunday the models have been a little
stronger with the impact of the high pressure system over NE and
the great lakes states. This is helping to push the front a
little farther south and push drier air into more of the region
including the southern va piedmont. So have tapered back on the
low chc pops to just ERN nc and parts of the va tidewater sat
night and little northern movement on Sunday. But will need to
watch for what may try to develop across the us SE coast as far
as a tropical system which the ECMWF develops from what is
currently in the bahamas. This could push more moisture back
north of the front and spread rain chances farther north and
west. Temperatures should recover some back into the lower 80s
with some additional sunshine.

Long term Sunday night through Thursday
As of 4 pm edt Wednesday...

the extended period (Monday) will start with below normal temps as
high pressure remains centered over the canadian maritimes with low
pressure off the nc outer banks. There is a chc of a few
showers tstms (mainly across southern eastern portions of the cwa)
on mon. Highs mainly in the low 80s on mon. Expect slowly warming
temperatures throughout next week as the aforementioned area of high
pressure retreats offshore and the low off the outer banks moves to
our northeast. Mainly dry on Tue (although an isolated aftn-evening
tstm cannot be ruled out over the area... Mainly south west). There
is a better chc for aftn-evening showers tstms on Wed as strong low
pressure (sfc-aloft) tracks over ontario and the trailing cold front
slowly approaches the region from the nw. Have pops of 30-35% W 20%
e Wed aftn-wed evening. The frontal boundary potentially lingers
over the area on thu, so kept slight chc low-end chc pops in the
grids (highest during the aftn-evening).

Highs in the mid 80s on Tue warming into the upper 80s by wed-thu.

Low Mon night mainly in the 60s. Slightly warmer Tue night-thu night
with lows in the upper 60s NW low 70s se.

Aviation 06z Friday through Tuesday
As of 200 am edt Friday...

a cold front is located over the ohio valley as of 06z, with
high pressure centered well off the southeast coast.VFR
conditions prevail under sct-bkn high clouds, with a 5-10kt sw
wind. An area of ifr stratus has developed over the piedmont
well NW of ric, and these lower CIGS should remain well removed
from ric early this morning. The cold front will advance to the
southeast today, with the leading edge reaching ric and sby by
15-18z, phf orf 21-00z, and ecg 00-03z. Low pressure will track
along the boundary and showers tstms are expected to become
widespread, primarily after 18z. MVFR ifr vsby is expected in
heavy rain, with MVFR and potentially ifr CIGS developing by
this evening in NE flow behind the front. A few strong wind
gusts are also possible with the initial tstms this aftn.

Degraded flight conditions are expected to continue later
tonight with a 20-30% chc of showers from ric-sby, and 30-60%
over SE va NE nc with some embedded tstms over NE nc.

The cold front settles along the carolina coast Saturday into
Sunday. Low pressure is expected to develop along the front by
Sunday night, before lifting to the NE Monday into Tuesday. A
chc of showers will continue, with the highest probability over
se va NE nc.

Marine
As of 400 pm edt Thursday...

winds have subsided this afternoon with a southerly flow at 5-10 kt.

S to SW winds are expected to increase to 10-15 kt this evening
ahead of a cold front. A line of thunderstorms that is over the blue
ridge may reach the coast after 00z tonight bringing periods of wind
gusts of 20-25 kt.

Cold front will move from north to south late tonight and into
Friday morning. Ahead of the front, SW winds will be 10-15 kt with
gust up to 20 kt. A N wind of 5-10 kt will follow the frontal pass
on Friday. Seas in the atlantic will remain 2-3 ft and waves in the
chesapeake bay will be around 1 ft on Friday.

As a sfc high pressure builds in from the great lakes and a low
begins to develop off the SE u.S. Coast on Saturday, the NE winds
will increase to 15-20 kt with gust up to 25 kt. SCA may be needed
for Sunday-Tuesday as the NE flow persist. Seas may build up to 5-6
ft with possibly 7 ft farther offshore.&&

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... None.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Cmf
near term... Alb
short term... Ess
long term... Eri
aviation... Ajz
marine... Cp


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 17 mi65 min WSW 8 G 8.9 76°F 84°F1013.9 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 23 mi59 min W 7 G 9.9
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 28 mi59 min SW 1 73°F 1015 hPa72°F
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 37 mi59 min SW 8 G 8.9 77°F 83°F1013.7 hPa
NCDV2 39 mi65 min WSW 5.1 G 7 76°F 87°F1013.5 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 41 mi59 min 1014.8 hPa
44041 - Jamestown, VA 42 mi35 min 75°F 85°F1014.8 hPa
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 42 mi59 min WSW 8 G 11 76°F 80°F1014.1 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 43 mi59 min WSW 2.9 G 5.1 78°F 1014.7 hPa
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 43 mi59 min W 13 G 15 78°F 1014.9 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 44 mi65 min WSW 8.9 G 9.9 80°F 85°F1014.5 hPa
44072 48 mi39 min NW 14 G 16 78°F

Wind History for Lewisetta, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tappahannock-Essex County Airport, VA11 mi94 minSSW 410.00 miFair73°F72°F100%1014.9 hPa
West Point, Middle Peninsula Regional Airport, VA21 mi4.6 hrsS 410.00 miMostly Cloudy74°F72°F95%1014.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFYJ

Wind History from FYJ (wind in knots)
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1 day agoS4S3CalmCalmCalmS4S6SW7S6S7SE8SW8S10SW9SW8SW5CalmCalmN5E3CalmCalmS4W6
2 days agoW5SW4W5SW4SW4W5W3SW5CalmCalmS3S4S5S7CalmSE4S6SW9N9
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Tide / Current Tables for Bowlers Rock, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Bowlers Rock
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:13 AM EDT     0.56 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:29 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:35 AM EDT     1.73 feet High Tide
Fri -- 10:58 AM EDT     Last Quarter
Fri -- 01:07 PM EDT     0.43 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:55 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:08 PM EDT     2.03 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.60.60.81.21.51.71.71.61.310.70.50.40.50.81.21.61.9221.81.51.2

Tide / Current Tables for Wares Wharf, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Wares Wharf
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:21 AM EDT     0.56 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:29 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:44 AM EDT     1.73 feet High Tide
Fri -- 10:58 AM EDT     Last Quarter
Fri -- 01:15 PM EDT     0.43 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:56 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:17 PM EDT     2.03 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.60.60.81.11.41.71.71.61.41.10.80.50.40.50.71.11.51.9221.81.51.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.