Saturday, October19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Warsaw, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:19AMSunset 6:28PM Saturday October 19, 2019 3:27 PM EDT (19:27 UTC) Moonrise 9:36PMMoonset 11:45AM Illumination 64% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
ANZ537 Tidal Potomac From Cobb Island To Smith Point- 135 Pm Edt Sat Oct 19 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from late tonight through late Sunday night...
This afternoon..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Tonight..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain.
Sun..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 3 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun night..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 3 ft.
Mon..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Mon night..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Tue..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely .
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.
ANZ500 135 Pm Edt Sat Oct 19 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will shift offshore today as post-tropical storm nestor moves into the southeastern u.s. The remnants of nestor will move across the carolinas Sunday, then offshore of the outer banks by Sunday evening. A cold front will approach from the ohio valley Monday, then cross the region Tuesday. High pressure will follow for Wednesday. Small craft advisories may be required Tuesday night into Wednesday. Gale conditions are possible over the lower tidal potomac river and over the chesapeake bay south of north beach maryland Sunday afternoon and early evening.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Warsaw town, VA
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 37.82, -76.69     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus61 kakq 191717
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
117 pm edt Sat oct 19 2019

Synopsis
Post tropical cyclone nestor will track northeast across the
carolinas tonight and Sunday morning, then push off the delmarva
coast Sunday afternoon. A strong cold front will cross the area
Tuesday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 1010 am edt Saturday...

mid morning msas has high pressure over NRN va with TS nestor
just abt making landfall across the fla panhandle. Clouds will
be slow to increase for the next svrl hrs then overspread the
area from the south after 18z. High res data shows nestor
rapidly transitioning to an extra-tropical cyclone with little
if any rainfall making it into the local area until around if
not after 00z. Thus, sunshine will fade behind increasing high
and mid level clouds this aftrn. Highs mid-upr 60s.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Monday
As of 400 am edt Saturday...

high pressure centered close to the region will keep things dry
on Saturday. Mid and high clouds from tropical storm nestor
will move into the region during the day. Winds will remain
light and variable this morning and eventually become S se
during the afternoon as the high shifts east. After a cold
start to the morning, temperatures this afternoon will rebound
to the mid and upper 60s this afternoon.

Attention then turns to tropical storm nestor for Sunday. The
system is expected to make landfall in the fl panhandle early
Saturday and race to the NE throughout the day. The storm is
expected to quickly become post tropical. By early Sunday the
system is forecast to be centered over eastern nc. Rain showers
should begin over the far SW of the area sometime between 00-06z
Sunday and quickly overspread the region throughout the morning.

While the entire region will see rain, the heaviest should be
focused across the southeast portions of the forecast area.

Guidance has been fairly consistent with showing an area of
frontogenetic rainfall north of the center during the day on
Sunday, which based on the current track would place this
enhanced area of rainfall over NE nc and SE va. Current
rainfall totals for Sunday are forecast to be 0.5-1 inch north
of i-64, 1-2 inches in the richmond area, and in excess of 2
inches across SE va and NE nc. Rainfall should taper off by late
Sunday night as the system continues east and away from the
area. The other story with this system on Sunday will be the
winds. They will be quite gusty beginning with the storms
arrival Sunday morning and continuing on the backside of the
storm as it pulls away. Expect gusts of 20-30 mph across the
western portions of the forecast area and gusts up to 40-45 mph
near the coast. High temps on Sunday will remain cooler than
normal, only reaching the low to mid 60s, and near 70 close to
the coast.

Monday will be a dry and fairly quiet day across the region, as
high pressure briefly builds in. Winds will be much lighter out
of the north but there may still be some gusts of 20-25 mph
near the coast mainly in the morning until the remnants of nestor
get further away and the pressure gradient relaxes across the
region. Low temps Monday morning will range from the
upper 40s to lower 50s and high temps up near 70 degrees.

Long term Monday night through Friday
As of 400 pm edt Friday...

a closed low will be moving NE across the upper plains with a cold
front extending south to the gulf of mexico Monday night. The low
pressure system will continue to move north towards the hudson bay
as a cold front approaches the area. Second sfc low pressure system
developing in the region at the same time, bringing the next chance
of widespread rainfall for va, md, and nc. Timing of the frontal
passage will be Tuesday afternoon into the evening. ECMWF remains
slower than the GFS but both models moves all the rain off the coast
by sunrise on Wednesday, with dry condition expected during the day
Wednesday through the end of the work week.

Since the main area of low pressure will be moving north into
central canada, we will not see strong cold air advection as sfc
high pressure system builds into the area behind the front, although
temperatures will be cooler. Low temperatures will be in the 40s
inland and low 50s near the immediate coast. Coldest morning for the
week will be Thursday morning as the center of the sfc high will be
over SE va NE nc, with lows in the mid 40s (near 50 along the
immediate coast).

Aviation 18z Saturday through Wednesday
As of 115 pm edt Saturday...

vfr conditions along with light winds to start off the forecast
period as high pressure moves off the coast. The remnant low of
tc nestor will move NE along the carolina coast Sun morn then
off the DELMARVA coast Sun aftrn. Expect lowering thickeningVFR
cigs this eve with widespread rain and MVFR CIGS overspreading
the area south to north after midnite tonite and continuing thru
the end of this forecast period. CIGS will likely lwr to ifr Sunday
over most of the area along with rain of varying intensities. Se
wind becomes NE and gusty to btwn 20-30 kts across va md while a
gusty south wind continues at ecg until the low passes by to the ne.

Outlook...

lwr CIGS rain and gusty winds (strongest along the coast) with
nestor will continue Sunday evening with slowly improving conditions
late Sunday night. Monday will be dry as high pressure briefly builds
in ahead of a cold front that is expected to cross the area Tuesday.

Scattered showers are expected ahead of the front which may result
in brief periods of subVFR conditions.

Marine
As of 335 am edt Saturday...

latest analysis reveals ridge of sfc high pressure over the region
this morning. Generally light variable winds noted across the waters
early this morning. Winds do eventually increase become e-ne ~10 kt
later this morning, before veering around to the SE by this evening
as the sfc high slides offshore. Seas 2-3 ft, waves 1-2 ft through
early evening.

Meanwhile to the south, tropical storm nestor will reach the fl
panhandle fl great bend area later this morning, before becoming
extratropical shortly thereafter and lifting just inland along the
coastal carolinas tonight early Sunday, before pushing off the NE nc
coast by Sunday evening. Continue to avoid the NAM solution which is
a bit north of the remainder of guidance, and have continued to side
towards an ecmwf-weighted blended solution. This will translate to
deteriorating conditions late tonight over southern waters, with s-
se winds increasing to 20-25 kt. The remnants of nestor will be
along the eastern nc coast at sunrise Sunday morning, and will
accelerate ene through the day Sunday. Local wind probabilities do
show a 40-50% chance of gale force gusts over southern waters and
perhaps into the lower bay Sunday morning as the remnant low passes
offshore. Winds should briefly diminish over southern waters and
veer around to the nnw and increasing again behind the departing
low. At the same time, e-ne winds increase to 25-30 kt (with 35-40
kt gusts) over the lower ches bay coastal waters N of the va-nc
border. There is the potential of a brief period of gale force gusts
across the bay coastal waters Sun evening (driven by CAA on the back
side of the low). Seas build to 6-9 ft by late Sunday waves to ~4 ft
(4-5 ft at the lower bay mouth of the bay).

So with that in mind... A few headline changes have been made. A gale
watch is now in effect for all atlantic coastal waters, the
currituck sound, and the ches bay south of new point comfort. A
small craft advisory is now in effect for the rivers from late
(Saturday) night through early Monday morning.

Northerly winds quickly diminish below SCA thresholds all zones
Monday morning (although seas may remain elevated through at least
mon aftn). Winds seas likely remain below SCA thresholds through
much of Tue before another cold front crosses the waters Tue evening-
later Tue night.

Tides coastal flooding
As of 330 am edt Saturday...

no coastal flooding is expected through tonight. However, water
levels are expected to rise as the remnant low of t.C. Nestor tracks
from SE nc to offshore of the va nc coast Sun aftn and night.

Guidance continues to show the potential for minor coastal flooding
across parts of the area by high tide on Sunday (best chances are in
areas adjacent to the lower ches bay james river).

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 6 am Sunday to midnight edt Sunday
night for anz635>637.

Gale watch from late tonight through Sunday evening for anz632-
634.

Gale watch from late tonight through Sunday evening for anz633-
656-658.

Small craft advisory from 6 am Sunday to 6 am edt Monday for
anz630-631-638.

Gale watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for
anz650-652-654.

Synopsis... Mpr
near term... Cmf
short term... Cmf
long term... Cp
aviation... Mpr
marine... Mam
tides coastal flooding... Akq


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 17 mi58 min E 7 G 8.9
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 23 mi58 min SSE 6 G 8
44042 - Potomac, MD 24 mi34 min SE 9.7 G 9.7 60°F 66°F1020.8 hPa
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 28 mi58 min N 1 66°F 1020 hPa46°F
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 29 mi58 min SSE 9.7 G 12 71°F 65°F1021.9 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 37 mi58 min E 7 G 8 61°F 66°F1018 hPa
NCDV2 39 mi58 min ESE 1 G 2.9
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 41 mi58 min SW 7 G 8 1019.6 hPa
44041 - Jamestown, VA 42 mi34 min 65°F 67°F1018.5 hPa
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 42 mi58 min NE 7 G 8 63°F 67°F1018.3 hPa
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 43 mi58 min SE 6 G 8 63°F 1019.3 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 44 mi58 min S 6 G 7
44072 48 mi38 min S 5.8 G 5.8 62°F

Wind History for Lewisetta, VA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
Last
24hr
NW13
G17
NW9
W6
W5
W4
NW4
NW6
N7
G11
N9
G13
N4
NW4
W5
W5
NW5
W3
W3
NW4
NE4
E4
SE4
E6
G9
E6
E8
E5
1 day
ago
W12
G19
NW13
G19
N12
G17
N10
G14
NW10
G13
NW12
G16
NW19
G28
NW19
G26
W9
G13
NW11
G16
NW12
G15
NW13
G18
NW13
G21
NW13
G18
NW12
G16
NW12
G15
NW18
G23
N14
G22
N11
G19
N11
G17
NW14
G21
NW12
G17
NW13
G17
2 days
ago
W8
G12
NW11
G14
NW15
G19
NW17
G21
NW21
G29
NW18
G25
NW17
G23
NW17
NW15
G20
W14
W16
G23
W13
G16
W14
G17
W13
G16
W10
W12
W11
G14
W13
G17
W11
G14
W14
G19
W13
G17
W18
G22
W18
G24
W13
G16

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tappahannock-Essex County Airport, VA11 mi33 minS 410.00 miFair65°F43°F46%1018.3 hPa
West Point, Middle Peninsula Regional Airport, VA21 mi33 minSSW 310.00 miFair65°F43°F46%1018.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFYJ

Wind History from FYJ (wind in knots)
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
-12
PM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
Last 24hrW6NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3SE5SW3S4SE4
1 day agoW15
G21
W8
G16
W6NW4CalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW6NW6
G14
N7
G15
NW5
G19
N8
G17
W8
G16
W5
G18
2 days agoW5W5W12
G20
NW8
G14
W8
G14
W10
G17
W9W9
G16
W11
G20
W9
G17
W12W10
G15
W7
G14
W9SW7W8W9W10W12W12
G19
W14
G18
W12W16
G23
SW13
G18

Tide / Current Tables for Bowlers Rock, Rappahannock River, Virginia
   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Bowlers Rock
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:55 AM EDT     1.84 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:19 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:20 AM EDT     0.41 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 12:44 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:18 PM EDT     2.23 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:35 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12
am
1
am
2
am
3
am
4
am
5
am
6
am
7
am
8
am
9
am
10
am
11
am
12
pm
1
pm
2
pm
3
pm
4
pm
5
pm
6
pm
7
pm
8
pm
9
pm
10
pm
11
pm
0.50.71.11.41.71.81.71.51.20.80.60.40.50.71.21.622.22.221.71.30.90.6

Tide / Current Tables for Wares Wharf, Rappahannock River, Virginia
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Wares Wharf
Click for Map
Sat -- 05:04 AM EDT     1.84 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:19 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:28 AM EDT     0.41 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 12:45 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:27 PM EDT     2.23 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:35 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12
am
1
am
2
am
3
am
4
am
5
am
6
am
7
am
8
am
9
am
10
am
11
am
12
pm
1
pm
2
pm
3
pm
4
pm
5
pm
6
pm
7
pm
8
pm
9
pm
10
pm
11
pm
0.50.711.41.71.81.81.51.20.90.60.40.40.71.11.622.22.221.71.310.7

Weather Map
       (on/off)   Help Weather Map
wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (15,3,4,5)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.