Tuesday, January21, 2020
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L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Warsaw, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:19AMSunset 5:22PM Tuesday January 21, 2020 8:45 AM EST (13:45 UTC) Moonrise 4:31AMMoonset 2:27PM Illumination 14% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ537 Tidal Potomac From Cobb Island To Smith Point- 638 Am Est Tue Jan 21 2020
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Today..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Tonight..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Wed..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wed night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Thu night..NE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain through the night.
Sat..SE winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming W 5 to 10 kt. Waves 3 ft... Subsiding to 1 to 2 ft. Rain likely through the day.
ANZ500 638 Am Est Tue Jan 21 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will build eastward from the mississippi valley through Wednesday, then move offshore during the second half of the week. A low pressure system will approach on Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Warsaw town, VA
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location: 37.82, -76.69     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 211148 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 648 AM EST Tue Jan 21 2020

SYNOPSIS. Canadian high pressure builds into the Mid-Atlantic from the northwest today, and then spreads across the area through midweek. High pressure slides offshore later in the week as low pressure approaches from the west.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. As of 345 AM EST Tuesday .

Current wv imagery places a cold upper trough over the ern Conus. At the surface, 1040mb high pressure is centered over the Mid-Mississippi valley and extends ewd into the Ohio Valley and is building into the Mid-Atlantic. Meanwhile, broad low pressure is located well off the Southeast coast. Therefore, a rather strong pressure is situated in vicinity of the Carolina coast, which is maintaining modest NNE flow. Clear and cold early this morning, with a few bands of marine stratocumulus in vicinity of the nrn Outer Banks. Temperatures range from the upper teens/low 20s for much of the area, to the upper 20s/around 30F for coastal SE VA/NE NC.

High pressure will very slowly build in from the NW today as an upper level shortwave trough drops across the Southeast Conus. This will trigger low pressure development well off the Southeast coast, which will help maintain an strong pressure gradient in vicinity of the Carolina coast. Sunny an chilly today with highs in the mid/upper 30s. A N wind of 15-20 mph is expected for coastal SE VA/NE NC, with 5-10mph N wind well inland.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 345 AM EST Tuesday .

High pressure gradually builds across the region Tuesday night into Wednesday as low pressure pushes ewd well off the Southeast coast. Clear and cold tonight with lows in the upper teens/low 20s for much of the area, and upper 20s/around 30F for coastal SE VA/NE NC. Mostly sunny Wednesday with temperatures moderating toward seasonal averages. Forecast highs range from the low to mid 40s.

High pressure becomes centered from the Mid-Atlantic through New England. Clear and dry conditions should allow lows Wednesday night should drop to around 20F/low 20s inland to the upper 20s/low 30s for coastal SE VA/NE NC where low-level NNE flow persists. Mostly sunny Thursday with some increase in high clouds. Temperatures will continue to moderate with highs ranging from the mid/upper 40s N to the low 50s SE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. As of 345 AM EST Tuesday .

The end of the work week will be dry and mild, with high pressure at the sfc and aloft over the region. At the same time, an upper-level trough will be digging south into the Midwest/Central US. The trough will become a closed low and cut off from the main upper-level flow and slowly migrate east. As the closed low pressure aloft moves towards the east coast, it will likely stay northwest of the southern Mid-Atlantic. However, a sfc low will likely develop east of the Appalachian Mountains and track from SW to NE across VA/MD. This will bring an area of rain through the region Friday night into Saturday morning. As the sfc low moves north of the area, rain will exit the area for Saturday evening/night. However, the low pressure system aloft will still be nearby and may give areas across central and northeastern VA and central Delmarva a few rain showers Saturday afternoon/evening. A NW, downslope, low will begin late Saturday/Sunday and dry the area out.

Throughout the Long Term period, temperatures will be near average to above average. Friday's high temperatures will be in the upper 40s W (perhaps mid 40s NW due to in situ CAD wedge) to mid/upper 50s SE after morning lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s Friday morning. As rain moves into the area, temperatures and dew points will increase, temperatures on Saturday morning will range from the upper 40s across northeast NC and southeast VA to the upper 30s across central VA and MD Eastern Shore. Temperatures during the day on Saturday will be dependent on the exact track of the sfc low pressure. Highs may reach 60F across Hampton Roads and northeast NC, while a CAD wedge may persist in the central VA Piedmont, keeping temperatures in the 40s. Temperatures for Sunday and Monday will be close to average for late January, highs in the mid-upper 40s and lows in the 20s/30s.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. As of 645 AM EST Tuesday .

Strong high pressure over the Mississippi Valley is building into the Mid-Atlantic region as of 12z. Meanwhile, broad low pressure is located well offshore. Therefore, the pressure gradient is maintaining a N wind of 5-10kt inland, and 10-15kt along the coast with occasional gusts to 20kt (and up to 25kt at ORF). Some bands of SC ~4-6kft are pushing onshore near ECG. The wind will remain N today ~10kt RIC/SBY/PHF, and 12-15kt at ORF/ECG, with gusts to 20-25kt through mid-aftn. The wind will relax tonight and become very light from the N inland, and NNE 5-10kt toward the coast.

High pressure builds into the region Wednesday into Thursday as low pressure pushes ewd well off the Southeast coast. High pressure slides offshore Friday. Low pressure and an associated cold front impact the region Friday night into Saturday bring a chc of rain and degraded flight conditions.

MARINE. As of 345 AM EST Tuesday .

Early this morning, strong high pressure is centered over Missouri. This is resulting in a northerly flow over the area waters. Winds are 15-20 kts over the bay, southern coastal waters, and Currituck Sound. Winds over the northern coastal waters are 5-15 kts. Waves in the bay are 3-4 ft, and seas are 5-6 ft. SCA for the northern coastal waters and southern James river should be allowed to expire later this morning, however SCA's will remain for the central and southern coastal waters, Currituck Sound, and the bay. Low pressure is expected to develop well off the SE coast on Tuesday, while the previously mentioned high pressure will drift eastward towards the ohio valley. This will result in a N/NE wind direction over the local waters. Wind speeds 15-20 kts with 20-25 kts over the southern coastal waters and Currituck sound. Waves in the bay are likely to remain 3-4 ft. Seas will be 2-4 ft in the northern coastal waters and 5-7 ft in the southern coastal waters.

High pressure builds over the region Wednesday and Thursday. Low pressure and an associated cold front will impact the area waters late Friday into Saturday.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ632-634. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ633-654. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ630-631. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ638- 650-652. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ656-658.

SYNOPSIS . AJZ NEAR TERM . AJZ SHORT TERM . AJZ LONG TERM . CP/AJZ AVIATION . AJZ MARINE . CMF


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 17 mi45 min 27°F 37°F1032.6 hPa (+1.5)
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 23 mi75 min N 11 G 13
44042 - Potomac, MD 24 mi21 min N 18 G 19 28°F 42°F1032.3 hPa
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 28 mi75 min N 2.9 26°F 1032 hPa16°F
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 29 mi21 min NNE 21 G 25 43°F1035.3 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 37 mi45 min 25°F 42°F1032.6 hPa (+1.5)
NCDV2 39 mi45 min 25°F 41°F1033 hPa (+1.7)
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 41 mi45 min 1031.8 hPa (+0.9)
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 42 mi45 min 29°F 44°F1031.1 hPa (+1.3)
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 43 mi45 min 30°F 1031.6 hPa (+1.4)
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 44 mi51 min 24°F 34°F1032.7 hPa
44072 48 mi25 min E 19 G 25 30°F

Wind History for Lewisetta, VA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tappahannock-Essex County Airport, VA11 mi50 minN 10 G 1610.00 miFair25°F10°F54%1032.5 hPa
West Point, Middle Peninsula Regional Airport, VA21 mi50 minNNW 310.00 miFair23°F11°F61%1032.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFYJ

Wind History from FYJ (wind in knots)
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NW5N5NW3NW4N5N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3N3N4N4
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Tide / Current Tables for Bowlers Rock, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Bowlers Rock
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:06 AM EST     -0.22 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:31 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:18 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:16 AM EST     1.88 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:27 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:12 PM EST     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:17 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 10:33 PM EST     1.43 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.90.60.2-0.1-0.2-0.10.20.71.31.71.91.81.61.20.80.40-0.1-00.30.71.11.41.4

Tide / Current Tables for Wares Wharf, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Wares Wharf
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:14 AM EST     -0.22 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:31 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:19 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:25 AM EST     1.88 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:27 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:17 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:20 PM EST     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 10:42 PM EST     1.43 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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10.60.2-0.1-0.2-0.10.20.71.21.61.91.81.61.30.80.40.1-0.1-0.10.20.71.11.41.4

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.