Thursday, July9, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Warsaw, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:55AMSunset 8:34PM Thursday July 9, 2020 3:34 AM EDT (07:34 UTC) Moonrise 10:45PMMoonset 9:10AM Illumination 85% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ537 Tidal Potomac From Cobb Island To Smith Point- 138 Am Edt Thu Jul 9 2020
.small craft advisory in effect from noon edt today through Friday morning...
Overnight..SE winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A slight chance of showers.
Thu..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. Scattered showers.
Thu night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 3 ft. Showers likely. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Fri..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely.
Fri night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 138 Am Edt Thu Jul 9 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Low pressure over the southeastern u.s. Will lift northward toward the carolinas through Thursday, moving near or just east of the delmarva peninsula on Friday. A cold front is poised to encroach on the waters late Saturday into Sunday, lingering nearby into early next week. Gale force wind gusts will be possible over portions of the waters overnight Thursday into Friday, potentially requiring the need for a gale warning during this time period.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Warsaw town, VA
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location: 37.82, -76.69     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 090538 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 138 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure slowly moves northeast along the North Carolina coast today and tonight before lifting northeast along the Mid Atlantic coast Friday and Saturday. A frontal boundary will linger along the coast through the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/. As of 130 AM EDT Thursday .

Adjusted the grids thru sunrise per current trends. Dropped PoPS except across sern VA / nrn OB as the latest high res data shows this activity pushing nnw thru the pre-dawn hrs. Otw, mstly clr to pt cldy with ptchy fog in places. Lows upr 60s-mid 70s. Appears the heavy rain threat holds off until after 12Z.

PVS DSCN: WPC Day 2 excessive rain outlook highlights the eastern 1/2 of the CWA in a Marginal Risk for Thu (though 12Z/Fri). Some of the high res model data shows extreme rainfall amts reaching the eastern shore and even into eastern VA W of the Bay later thu/thu night. The GFS/ECMWF have trended a little heavier in their QPF output as well so have trended the forecast upward to show heavy rain later Thu AM into Thu aftn across NE NC/SE VA, and eventually the eastern shore as a consensus forecast of the sfc low is near or just off the coast or ern NC/SE VA by 00z/Fri. This brings PWAT values in excess of 2.00" to the SE 1/2 of the CWA by 12Z and to most of the CWA by 00Z/Fri with SE 1/2 of the CWA approaching 2.50" during the aftn. Noting that the 12z/08 GFS is faster (and likely too fast) in pushing the system N compared to the NAM/ECMWF and WPC progs. Will continue with likely PoPs SE with chance Pops N and W. Highs upper 80s/near 90F NW to the lower- mid 80s SE. Total QPF amounts through 00Z Fri will avg 1-2" over far SE VA/NE NC to 0.25" or less over the 1-95 corridor and west and on the MD eastern shore.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/. As of 415 PM EDT Wednesday .

The center of the system tracks NNE Thu night/Fri AM, hugging the coast somewhere in the vicinity of SE VA or the Va eastern shore by 12Z/Fri. This period will see the potential for the heaviest rain shifting N and through the day Fri, The event total QPF (through Sat) will avg 2-3" along the coast, with less than 1" along/W of I-95. Slight shifts in the track could lead to significant changes so this will continue to be monitored closely (more offshore track would keep the higher amounts off the coast while an inland track could spread heavy rain all the way to the I-95 corridor. In general, the wind impacts will be minimal except at the immediate coast (see Marine section for more detail). Highs Fri around 90F well inland with 80s to the E.

The system should mostly be off to the NE of the local area by Fri night and Sat, but a lagging upper trough will bring above climo PoPs (~50%) for Sat aftn/early evening tstms. Highs Sat into the upper 80s/lower 90s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 315 PM EDT Wednesday .

Overall the operational models are in decent agreement with a Eastern US Trough being the dominant weather feature in the extended period, but the strength of the trough differs. The GFS is sharpest and deepest during the period while the ECMWF is quicker to begin lifting the trough out toward the end of the period. For now have blended between the two with having more convective activity early in the period on Sunday and Monday with a stronger trough and an associated sfc cold front moving into the area. Then begin to lessen the chances for convection by mid week as the surface front dissipates and the Bermuda High starts to rebuild into the SE US. The pops are mainly diurnal with the best chances for pcpn late in the afternoon into the early evening. For temperatures have kept readings in the low 90s through the period, but should the trough deepen a little more on Sunday into Monday, would not be surprised to see temperatures held down just a touch into the upper 80s for early in the week. But overall should not be far from normal with highs in the lower 90s and lows in the low to mid 70s.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. As of 130 AM EDT Thursday .

Weak high pressure over the area erly this morning with low pressure dvlpng just ene of ILM. Sct SC btwn 1-2K FT along with ptchy fog dvlpng in some places and will cont to do so thru the pre-dawn hrs. Shwrs from the coastal low will overspread the sern TAF sites by or shortly aftr 12Z them spread n along the coast thru out the day and tonite. Lclly hvy downpours will result in MVFR CIGS with pockets of IFR VSBYS at times along the coast. RIC sees little rain chcs. Gusty ene winds btwn 15-25 kts along the coast late today and tonite.

OUTLOOK . Degraded flight conditions will continue through Friday along the coastal TAF sites as the low moves up the Mid Atlantic coast. Conditions generally improve on Saturday, although afternoon/evening showers and storms may result in brief flight restrictions.

MARINE. As of 445 PM EDT Wednesday .

Afternoon surface analysis shows high pressure well offshore into the Atlantic with a broad area of low pressure off the Carolina/GA coast. Winds are generally out of the east 10-15 kts across the southern half of the area. Across the northern waters, winds remain SE 5-10 kts. Waves in the bay are 1-2 ft (highest at the mouth of the bay) with seas generally 2-3 ft.

Persistent easterly flow today across the southern bay and especially lower James river will continue this evening with continued potential for a few gusts approaching 20 knots. Think this threat will be best handled with Marine Weather Statements as needed given the marginal magnitude and limited geographic area affected. Winds in this area are forecast to relax near or shortly after sunset with general 10-15 knots expected for the lower bay and southern coastal waters through midnight. Thereafter, winds begin to slowly increase from south to north with 15-20 knots becoming prevalent after 12z Thursday morning for the southern coastal waters and Currituck Sound, an hour or two later for the southern bay and lower James river as low pressure deepens and moves very slowly northeast. The NHC is monitoring this low for potential tropical development but the current broad nature of the low and proximity to land (and drier continental air) are limiting factors. Uncertainty increases markedly by Thursday afternoon as models show a variety of potential scenarios. The 12z GFS is by far the fastest model with the low near the mouth of the Ches bay by Thursday evening while the NAM, GEM, and ECMWF show the low centered near or just north of Cape Hatteras. Differences compound from there with significant deviations in timing and track through Friday morning and beyond. The 12z NAM is on the western edge of the model consensus with a track right up the Ches bay, while the ECMWF and GEM are the farther offshore. Preferred the somewhat slower/farther east track of the ECMWF for this forecast with a nod toward the overall westward shift in the 12z guidance. Will show winds increasing to 20-25 knots offshore and 15-20 knots across the bay from late Thursday morning through the evening with seas increasing to 4-6 ft offshore. Waves will range from 2-3 ft in the northern bay to 3-5 ft across the southern bay (5ft most likely at the mouth of the bay). As the low moves north of the region, winds will become NW across the bay. Seas remain in the 4-6 ft range N through Friday evening before decreasing into Saturday morning.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Nuisance to minor coastal flooding is possible around high tide cycles on Thursday and Friday. Water level rises of around 1 ft above normal tide possible.

High risk of rip currents on Thursday for Virginia Beach and NE NC beaches. Moderate risk of rip currents for the MD/VA eastern shore.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 AM EDT Friday for ANZ632-634-656-658. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ630-631. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ638. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EDT Friday for ANZ650-652-654.

SYNOPSIS . MPR NEAR TERM . MPR SHORT TERM . LKB/MPR LONG TERM . ESS AVIATION . MPR MARINE . RHR TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . AKQ


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 17 mi47 min SSE 4.1 G 5.1 78°F 82°F1013.1 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 23 mi47 min SE 9.9 G 11
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 28 mi65 min Calm 76°F 1014 hPa74°F
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 29 mi29 min SE 7.8 G 9.7 83°F1016.8 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 37 mi47 min E 6 G 7 79°F 82°F1013.3 hPa
NCDV2 39 mi47 min N 1.9 G 1.9
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 41 mi47 min E 8 G 8.9 1013.3 hPa
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 42 mi47 min ESE 8 G 9.9 79°F 82°F1012.1 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 43 mi71 min SE 7 G 8 1014.1 hPa
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 43 mi47 min ESE 9.9 G 11 79°F 1013 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 44 mi47 min ESE 8 G 8.9 78°F 83°F1013.4 hPa
44072 48 mi35 min S 9.7 G 12 78°F 81°F1 ft

Wind History for Lewisetta, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tappahannock-Essex County Airport, VA11 mi40 minN 07.00 miFair70°F69°F100%1013.5 hPa
West Point, Middle Peninsula Regional Airport, VA21 mi40 minN 07.00 miFair73°F72°F99%1013.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFYJ

Wind History from FYJ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmE3E4CalmE5SE4E6E4E6E9E10SE7E10E5E3E3CalmCalmE3CalmNE3
1 day agoE3E3E4S4S4S3SW5S6SE6SE7SE8SE5SE6SE5E9E7E6E4SE3E3CalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoS4CalmCalmS4S4S4SW5S3SE5SE6S5SW7S8S5S4S6SE3CalmS5S6S4S3NE3NE3

Tide / Current Tables for Bowlers Rock, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Bowlers Rock
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Thu -- 04:32 AM EDT     1.94 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:10 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 11:23 AM EDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:00 PM EDT     1.75 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:31 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:32 PM EDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:45 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.71.21.61.91.91.71.410.60.30.10.10.40.81.31.61.81.71.41.10.70.40.2

Tide / Current Tables for Wares Wharf, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Wares Wharf
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:41 AM EDT     1.94 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:10 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 11:31 AM EDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:09 PM EDT     1.75 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:31 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:40 PM EDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:45 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.61.11.61.91.91.81.51.10.60.30.10.10.40.81.21.61.71.71.51.10.80.40.2

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.