Monday, July22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Warsaw, VA

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Sunrise 6:03AMSunset 8:27PM Monday July 22, 2019 6:28 PM EDT (22:28 UTC) Moonrise 10:50PMMoonset 10:12AM Illumination 67% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ537 Tidal Potomac From Cobb Island To Smith Point- 437 Pm Edt Mon Jul 22 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Tuesday morning...
.severe Thunderstorm watch 538 in effect until 10 pm edt this evening...
Rest of this afternoon..SW winds 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. Tstms likely with numerous showers. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. Widespread tstms and periods of showers. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tue..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. Showers with a chance of tstms.
Tue night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..E winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 437 Pm Edt Mon Jul 22 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A cold front will slowly cross the waters through Tuesday morning. High pressure will return for Wednesday and it will remain overhead through the rest of the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Warsaw town, VA
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location: 37.82, -76.69     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 221952
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
352 pm edt Mon jul 22 2019

Synopsis
High pressure remains centered across the southeastern states
through today. A strong cold front crosses the area Tuesday.

High pressure builds in from the north Wednesday through Friday.

Near term until 6 am Tuesday morning
As of 345 pm edt Monday...

isolated thunderstorms have developed across mainly the
piedmont northern tier counties this afternoon. SW flow both at
the surface and aloft has initially kept a lid on more
widespread activity, however expect more development as the
afternoon GOES on as the surface trough just west of the area
moves east. Will need to monitor to see if we need to locally
extend the severe thunderstorm watch, currently across the
northern tier, southward. However, given that the best winds
aloft remain across NRN va and md, it is unclear if a southward
extension of the watch will be needed. Otherwise, any
thunderstorm activity will move east this evening, then diminish
some after sunset. However, the cams suggest that activity will
remain for much of the night mainly across south central SE va
and have opted to increase pops to likely in this area. After a
lull in pcpn behind the leading storms this evening across the
nw, expect more widespread showers and scattered storms later
tonight to move in from the NW along the front and have brought
in categorical pops into the far NW late.

Heat index values remain above 100 at most spots this afternoon,
with 105-110 across the east. Will maintain the heat advisory
through early this evening. Luckily, this will be the last day
of dangerous heat.

Short term 6 am Tuesday morning through Wednesday
As of 345 pm edt Monday...

main concern for Tuesday will be the potential for heavy rain
and marginal severe across the se. The front will be slow to
move through the area, in fact it looks like it will just be
clearing the SE counties by 00z wed. In addition, a weak wave is
forecast to develop along the front which will slow it down
even more, and allow for more increased moisture convergence
along the front. With precipitable water values at or above 2
inches, combined with MLCAPE values of 1000-1500 j kg across the
se and potential training of storms along the ne-sw orientated
front, continue to think there will be the potential for heavy
rain across SE va NE nc. No flash flood watch though as the
ground should be able to handle a decent amount of rainfall
especially over swampy areas. Plus, the GFS and the ecmwf
suggest a faster fropa. Still, the href shows 30-50% prob of >3
inch 3hr so the potential for flash flooding will need to be
monitored and a short fused flash flood watch may be needed when
the details become more clear. There is also a marginal risk
for severe weather across the SE tomorrow afternoon. Wind fields
aloft increase as the upper trough digs across the eastern half
of the country, allowing a 40-50kt 500mb jet to move over the
area. This wind field combined with any afternoon heating will
be enough for a few strong to severe storms. However, the big
limiting factor will be the weak mid level lapse rates owing to
the very moist atmosphere.

The front finally clears the area Tue evening, then stalls out
just south of the area again Tue night into wed. Although we
will be on the cooler side of the front, one cannot rule out
scattered showers and isolated storms right through Wednesday,
especially since it looks like some tropical moisture will be
entrained along the front as the disturbance over the bahamas
moves north. Will need to maintain chance pops through Wednesday
across the se. Otherwise, will go with a dry forecast across
the rest of the area.

Temps will be much cooler starting tomorrow. Highs will range
from the 70s north of the front, to low-mid 80s south of the
front. Wednesday most areas will be in the 80s, but much lower
dew points in the upper 50s lower 60s.

Long term Wednesday night through Monday
As of 345 pm edt Monday...

quiet and quite pleasant weather expected for the extended with
high pressure in control through the week and weekend. Will keep
with a dry forecast thu-Monday. Temps will slowly trend upwards
starting out in the mid 80s Thursday, then gradually rising to
the lower 90s Sun mon. Very seasonable for late july.

Aviation 20z Monday through Saturday
As of 200 pm edt Monday...

gusty SW winds continue at all sites this afternoon ahead of a
cold front. Showers and thunderstorms may impact ric and sby
late this afternoon into early this evening bringing brief
reduced flight conditions and gusty winds to 30-40kt. Timing
still difficult and have opted to maintain vcts for now.

Showers storms will hold off at phf orf and ecg until later this
evening into the overnight hours. The cold front approaches the
area late tonight then passes through Tuesday. Plenty of showers
with MVFR conditions developing late tonight especially at ric,
then spreading to the remaining sites on Tuesday. Reduced flight
conditions expected for much of the afternoon Tuesday at all
sites with heavy rain and thunderstorms possible at phf ecg orf.

Vfr conditions expected wed- fri.

Marine
As of 1145 am edt Monday...

moderate SW winds, 15-20 knots, across the marine zones this
afternoon as the pressure gradient tightens between high pressure
offshore and an approaching trough of low pressure. Waves in the
bay are 1-2 ft with 2-4 ft seas offshore.

Sca headlines in effect through Tuesday morning for all marine zones
except the upper james, york, and rappahannock rivers. SW winds will
increase a bit later this evening and into the overnight hours as
the prefrontal trough and associated shower and storm activity
crosses the waters. Generally, 15-20 knots with gusts to 25 knots
can be expected through sunrise Tuesday with the potential for local
enhancement to winds waves seas in and around areas of
thunderstorms. Waves will build to ~3 ft in the bay while seas range
from 3-5 S to 4-6 ft N late this evening and especially into the
overnight hours. Have extended SCA headlines across the northern
three offshore zones until 16z Tuesday as SW winds will allow
elevated seas to continue north of CAPE charles light.

A cold front will slowly drop southeastward on Tuesday bringing
additional showers storms, with winds becoming N and NW 10-15 knots
behind the boundary. High pressure builds in behind the front for
later Wednesday into Friday with NE winds 5-15 knots. An increase in
seas to 2-4 ft, especially near and south of the mouth of the ches
bay, will accompany the period of NE winds for the late week period.

Climate
No record highs were broken or tied at the 4 main cli sites
Sunday, but ecg and sby set a new record high min (both having a
low of 80) and orf tied their record high min at 80. If orf
reaches 100f today, it will be the first time since july 23-25
2010 that orf had 3 consecutive days at or above 100f. Record
highs and record high mins are listed below:
* richmond: record high record high min
* Mon (7 22): 103 1952 79 2011
* norfolk: record high record high min
* Mon (7 22): 102 2011 82 2011
* salisbury: record high record high min
* Mon (7 22): 104 1930 80 2011
* eliz city: record high record high min
* Mon (7 22) 104 1952 79 2011

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... Heat advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for mdz021>025.

Nc... Heat advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for ncz012>017-
030>032-102.

Va... Heat advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for vaz075>078-
081>086-088>090-092-093-095>100-512-514>525.

Marine... Small craft advisory until noon edt Tuesday for anz650-652-654.

Small craft advisory until 7 am edt Tuesday for anz656-658.

Small craft advisory until 7 am edt Tuesday for anz630>634-638.

Synopsis... Mpr mrd
near term... Mrd
short term... Mrd
long term... Ajb mrd
aviation... Mrd
marine... Rhr
climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 17 mi58 min WSW 13 G 17 92°F 89°F1008.5 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 23 mi58 min W 11 G 15
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 37 mi58 min WSW 13 G 16 90°F 87°F1007.5 hPa
NCDV2 39 mi58 min WSW 11 G 15 89°F 1007.4 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 41 mi58 min 1010 hPa
44041 - Jamestown, VA 42 mi34 min 90°F 89°F1009.9 hPa
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 42 mi58 min SW 11 G 28 94°F 81°F1008.8 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 43 mi58 min WSW 13 G 21 91°F 1008.3 hPa
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 43 mi58 min WSW 21 G 25 93°F 1009.5 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 44 mi58 min SSW 7 G 14 86°F 1008.8 hPa
44072 48 mi68 min WNW 19 G 21 92°F

Wind History for Lewisetta, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tappahannock-Essex County Airport, VA11 mi33 minSW 810.00 miFair90°F69°F51%1009.1 hPa
West Point, Middle Peninsula Regional Airport, VA21 mi53 minSW 610.00 miFair84°F75°F76%1009.8 hPa

Wind History from FYJ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW6W4CalmCalmCalmSW4SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmS3SW6SW6SW7SW9
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1 day agoSW3SW3CalmS4SW4SW3SW3SW3SW5SW3SW5SW3SW4SW5W4W3CalmW3CalmS4S3SW4SW10
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2 days agoS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmW3W3CalmCalmCalmCalmSW3S5SE5SW5S5SW6

Tide / Current Tables for Bowlers Rock, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Bowlers Rock
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:00 AM EDT     1.83 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:12 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 11:47 AM EDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:30 PM EDT     1.79 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:49 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.611.41.71.81.71.51.20.80.50.30.30.40.81.21.51.81.81.61.410.70.5

Tide / Current Tables for Wares Wharf, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Wares Wharf
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:08 AM EDT     1.83 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:12 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 11:55 AM EDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:39 PM EDT     1.79 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:49 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.60.91.41.71.81.81.61.20.90.50.30.30.40.71.11.51.71.81.71.41.10.80.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.