Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Warsaw, VA
November 28, 2023 2:12 PM EST (19:12 UTC)
Sunrise 7:00AM Sunset 4:53PM Moonrise 5:40PM Moonset 8:29AM
ANZ537 Tidal Potomac From Cobb Island To Smith Point- 1233 Pm Est Tue Nov 28 2023
.gale warning in effect until 6 pm est this evening...
.small craft advisory in effect from 6 pm est this evening through Wednesday morning...
This afternoon..NW winds 20 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Waves 4 ft.
Tonight..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt... Diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Waves 4 ft...subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming W 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft. Rain likely through the night.
Sat..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of rain through the night.
.gale warning in effect until 6 pm est this evening...
.small craft advisory in effect from 6 pm est this evening through Wednesday morning...
This afternoon..NW winds 20 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Waves 4 ft.
Tonight..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt... Diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Waves 4 ft...subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming W 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft. Rain likely through the night.
Sat..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of rain through the night.
ANZ500 1233 Pm Est Tue Nov 28 2023
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay..
high pressure gradually builds toward the waters through tonight. Hazardous marine conditions expected through Tuesday evening, with small craft advisories likely needed through Wednesday morning. Another frontal system moves through the area by late in the week, with small craft advisories possible Thursday night and Friday. High pressure returns briefly Saturday before another front arrives Sunday into early next week.
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay..
high pressure gradually builds toward the waters through tonight. Hazardous marine conditions expected through Tuesday evening, with small craft advisories likely needed through Wednesday morning. Another frontal system moves through the area by late in the week, with small craft advisories possible Thursday night and Friday. High pressure returns briefly Saturday before another front arrives Sunday into early next week.
Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 281758 AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1258 PM EST Tue Nov 28 2023
SYNOPSIS
A dry cold front moves through this morning, ushering in the coldest airmass of the season today into Wednesday. Temperatures moderate late week into the weekend with the next chance for rain arriving Friday and again Sunday into Monday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 1000 AM EST Tuesday...
The latest analysis indicates ~1030mb sfc high pressure centered from the southern plains to the western Gulf of Mexico, with strong low pressure across eastern Canada. Aloft, a deep area of low pressure is anchored over Hudson Bay Canada, with the trough extending south through the Great Lakes and OH Valley and into the NE CONUS. Latest satellite shows increasing cloud cover, though skies are still mostly sunny. Temps are in the low 40s and likely will not increase more than a couple degrees before the cold front crosses.
The cold front at the VA/WV border will move through the region later this morning, pushing off the coast during the afternoon.
This will usher in another round of markedly colder and drier air. Gusty W-NW develop late this morning through the aftn, ranging from 15 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 to 30 mph inland and up to 35 mph over the Eastern Shore and along the coast. Highs will barely reach 40F across the far north, with low- mid 40s across central portions of the area, and mid- upper 40s south.
The cold temperatures in combination with the breezy conditions will bring a "winter chill" to the area, with wind chills staying in the 30s during the afternoon hours. With shortwave energy passing through the region, expect SCT clouds to develop later this morning through the aftn,with a period of BKN cloud cover likely over NE sections. Any remaining clouds should diminish after sunset with mainly clear skies tonight. The sfc high is progged to be ~1028mb tonight, centered from the Gulf coast states to the Carolinas and southern VA by 12Z/Wed. For much of the local area, this is not an ideal radiational cooling setup, with winds continuing through the evening and even towards daybreak into NE portions of the FA. As such, will forecast the coldest temperatures well inland and over rural areas of southern VA and NE NC, with somewhat warmer readings closer to the Bay and across the eastern shore. Nonetheless, this will be the coldest night so far this season, with lows ranging from 15-20F across the piedmont and rural interior VA/NE NC, to the low-mid 20s closer to the coast (and in the upper 20s at the immediate coast). Urban places like Richmond will tend to stay at or above 20F. Record Lows have been included in a Climate section below, with only ECG having a decent chance at challenging the record.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
As of 350 AM EST Tuesday...
Winds become SW ~10 mph Wednesday with gusts to 15-20 mph and highs in the mid 40s most places. This will once again keep wind chills cold (albeit not as cold as today) all day with afternoon wind chills in the upper 30s to around 40F. Lows Wednesday night/Thursday morning will be warmer compared to the previous night but still cold in the mid- upper 20s inland and upper 20s/lower 30s in urban areas and along the coast. High pressure remains in control of our weather pattern (centered just south of the local area) during the day on Thursday.
Temperatures moderate Thursday afternoon into the mid to upper 50s for much of the area due to southwest flow at the surface and ridging developing aloft. Partly-mostly sunny with just some high clouds. Partly cloudy, with increasing clouds Thu night and lows mostly in the 30s to around 40F.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 405 AM EST Tuesday...
The center of high pressure will be well offshore by Friday morning. Meanwhile, low pressure will be tracking ENE from the the mid MS Valley to the lower OH Valley by aftn. Rain chances increase from west to east during the day on Friday with the highest chances area wide likely during the afternoon/evening hours. The trough aloft looks to dampen with time as it reaches the Appalachians later Friday, so even with a period of likely PoPs Fri aftn into Fri evening, QPF amounts are not expected to be a lot, generally in the 0.10" to 0.25" range. It will be mild Friday with highs ranging from the lower 50s NW to the mid 60s SE. A cold front moves through the region Friday night, bringing an end to any remaining precipitation for most of the region, though the trend is for the front to stall just S of the CWA on Saturday which would keep a fair amount of clouds around. Raised low temperatures Fri night/Sat morning (lows upper 30s NW to the lower 50s SE). Will have ~20% PoPs over NE NC Sat closer to the front. Unsettled weather returns again Saturday night into Monday as another shortwave approaches. The operational GFS and ECMWF are quite different at this range and w/ a fairly progressive flow aloft, a lot of uncertainty prevails for this period. Will have chc PoPs all zones later Sat night through Sunday and into Monday along with mild conditions (lows Sat night in the 40s to around 50F with highs Sunday in the mid 50s NW to the mid 60s SE). Highs Monday upper 50s NW to the 60s elsewhere.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 1255 PM EST Tuesday...
VFR conditions are expected through the 18z/28 TAF period.
SCT-BKN cloud cover will clear out through the evening as a cold front crossing the region pushes offshore. Behind the front, winds are turning to the NW and gusting 25-30kt. These will diminish overnight as high pressure builds in, though gustiness will linger near the coast through the first part of tonight.
Winds turn to the SW early tomorrow morning, starting out light, then increasing to 5-10kt in the afternoon.
Outlook: High pressure becomes centered S of the region Wed through Thursday, bringing dry WX and VFR conditions. Winds shift around to the SW and will average around 10 kt both days.
The next chance for rain (and flight restrictions) will be Friday, then drying out Saturday.
MARINE
As of 425 AM EST Tuesday...
Early this morning, a dry cold front was pushing into the mtns, while sfc high pressure was centered over the midwest/cntrl Plains. Winds were generally W 5-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt across the waters. Waves were 1-2 ft and seas were 2-4 ft.
A strong upper-level disturbance and associated cold front will usher in the coldest air of the season for today into Wed morning. This strong cold advection, in combination with deep mixing, will lead to a period of strong SCA conditions, with W then NW winds 20-25 kt with gusts to 30-35 kt possible across most of the local waters. SCAs are in effect for all marine zones for this event into early Wed morning (except the nrn coastal water zones; see forthcoming discussion). The one exception is over the nrn coastal water zones where the tightest pressure gradient will reside. Winds of 20-30 kt and gusts 35-40 kt are expected here (highest out 20 nm) and the Gale Warning for these zones remains in effect from later this morning into tonight. A SCA will be needed after the Gale Warning drops off, due to lingering 15-25 kt winds and 4-5 ft seas. Given the offshore component to the wind continuing, seas will only increase to 4-6 ft N and 4-5 ft S despite the strong winds. Waves in the Bay increase to 3-4 ft, with 2-3 ft in the Rivers and Currituck Sound.
Winds diminish to 10-15 kt for Wed and turn to the SW by the aftn. SW winds then increase to 15-20 kt over the Bay and ~20 kt over the coastal waters Wed evening into early Thu morning as another upper-level disturbance slides through the area.
Another round of SCAs may be possible for at least the Ches Bay during this period. Sub SCA conditions then expected for Thu through Sat.
CLIMATE
As of 650 AM EST Tuesday...
* Record Low Temperatures for Wed 11/29:
* RIC: 10 (1930)
* ORF: 21 (1955)
* SBY: 10 (1930)
* ECG: 23 (1996)
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ630>632- 634-638-654-656.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ633- 635>637-658.
Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ650-652.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1258 PM EST Tue Nov 28 2023
SYNOPSIS
A dry cold front moves through this morning, ushering in the coldest airmass of the season today into Wednesday. Temperatures moderate late week into the weekend with the next chance for rain arriving Friday and again Sunday into Monday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 1000 AM EST Tuesday...
The latest analysis indicates ~1030mb sfc high pressure centered from the southern plains to the western Gulf of Mexico, with strong low pressure across eastern Canada. Aloft, a deep area of low pressure is anchored over Hudson Bay Canada, with the trough extending south through the Great Lakes and OH Valley and into the NE CONUS. Latest satellite shows increasing cloud cover, though skies are still mostly sunny. Temps are in the low 40s and likely will not increase more than a couple degrees before the cold front crosses.
The cold front at the VA/WV border will move through the region later this morning, pushing off the coast during the afternoon.
This will usher in another round of markedly colder and drier air. Gusty W-NW develop late this morning through the aftn, ranging from 15 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 to 30 mph inland and up to 35 mph over the Eastern Shore and along the coast. Highs will barely reach 40F across the far north, with low- mid 40s across central portions of the area, and mid- upper 40s south.
The cold temperatures in combination with the breezy conditions will bring a "winter chill" to the area, with wind chills staying in the 30s during the afternoon hours. With shortwave energy passing through the region, expect SCT clouds to develop later this morning through the aftn,with a period of BKN cloud cover likely over NE sections. Any remaining clouds should diminish after sunset with mainly clear skies tonight. The sfc high is progged to be ~1028mb tonight, centered from the Gulf coast states to the Carolinas and southern VA by 12Z/Wed. For much of the local area, this is not an ideal radiational cooling setup, with winds continuing through the evening and even towards daybreak into NE portions of the FA. As such, will forecast the coldest temperatures well inland and over rural areas of southern VA and NE NC, with somewhat warmer readings closer to the Bay and across the eastern shore. Nonetheless, this will be the coldest night so far this season, with lows ranging from 15-20F across the piedmont and rural interior VA/NE NC, to the low-mid 20s closer to the coast (and in the upper 20s at the immediate coast). Urban places like Richmond will tend to stay at or above 20F. Record Lows have been included in a Climate section below, with only ECG having a decent chance at challenging the record.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
As of 350 AM EST Tuesday...
Winds become SW ~10 mph Wednesday with gusts to 15-20 mph and highs in the mid 40s most places. This will once again keep wind chills cold (albeit not as cold as today) all day with afternoon wind chills in the upper 30s to around 40F. Lows Wednesday night/Thursday morning will be warmer compared to the previous night but still cold in the mid- upper 20s inland and upper 20s/lower 30s in urban areas and along the coast. High pressure remains in control of our weather pattern (centered just south of the local area) during the day on Thursday.
Temperatures moderate Thursday afternoon into the mid to upper 50s for much of the area due to southwest flow at the surface and ridging developing aloft. Partly-mostly sunny with just some high clouds. Partly cloudy, with increasing clouds Thu night and lows mostly in the 30s to around 40F.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 405 AM EST Tuesday...
The center of high pressure will be well offshore by Friday morning. Meanwhile, low pressure will be tracking ENE from the the mid MS Valley to the lower OH Valley by aftn. Rain chances increase from west to east during the day on Friday with the highest chances area wide likely during the afternoon/evening hours. The trough aloft looks to dampen with time as it reaches the Appalachians later Friday, so even with a period of likely PoPs Fri aftn into Fri evening, QPF amounts are not expected to be a lot, generally in the 0.10" to 0.25" range. It will be mild Friday with highs ranging from the lower 50s NW to the mid 60s SE. A cold front moves through the region Friday night, bringing an end to any remaining precipitation for most of the region, though the trend is for the front to stall just S of the CWA on Saturday which would keep a fair amount of clouds around. Raised low temperatures Fri night/Sat morning (lows upper 30s NW to the lower 50s SE). Will have ~20% PoPs over NE NC Sat closer to the front. Unsettled weather returns again Saturday night into Monday as another shortwave approaches. The operational GFS and ECMWF are quite different at this range and w/ a fairly progressive flow aloft, a lot of uncertainty prevails for this period. Will have chc PoPs all zones later Sat night through Sunday and into Monday along with mild conditions (lows Sat night in the 40s to around 50F with highs Sunday in the mid 50s NW to the mid 60s SE). Highs Monday upper 50s NW to the 60s elsewhere.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 1255 PM EST Tuesday...
VFR conditions are expected through the 18z/28 TAF period.
SCT-BKN cloud cover will clear out through the evening as a cold front crossing the region pushes offshore. Behind the front, winds are turning to the NW and gusting 25-30kt. These will diminish overnight as high pressure builds in, though gustiness will linger near the coast through the first part of tonight.
Winds turn to the SW early tomorrow morning, starting out light, then increasing to 5-10kt in the afternoon.
Outlook: High pressure becomes centered S of the region Wed through Thursday, bringing dry WX and VFR conditions. Winds shift around to the SW and will average around 10 kt both days.
The next chance for rain (and flight restrictions) will be Friday, then drying out Saturday.
MARINE
As of 425 AM EST Tuesday...
Early this morning, a dry cold front was pushing into the mtns, while sfc high pressure was centered over the midwest/cntrl Plains. Winds were generally W 5-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt across the waters. Waves were 1-2 ft and seas were 2-4 ft.
A strong upper-level disturbance and associated cold front will usher in the coldest air of the season for today into Wed morning. This strong cold advection, in combination with deep mixing, will lead to a period of strong SCA conditions, with W then NW winds 20-25 kt with gusts to 30-35 kt possible across most of the local waters. SCAs are in effect for all marine zones for this event into early Wed morning (except the nrn coastal water zones; see forthcoming discussion). The one exception is over the nrn coastal water zones where the tightest pressure gradient will reside. Winds of 20-30 kt and gusts 35-40 kt are expected here (highest out 20 nm) and the Gale Warning for these zones remains in effect from later this morning into tonight. A SCA will be needed after the Gale Warning drops off, due to lingering 15-25 kt winds and 4-5 ft seas. Given the offshore component to the wind continuing, seas will only increase to 4-6 ft N and 4-5 ft S despite the strong winds. Waves in the Bay increase to 3-4 ft, with 2-3 ft in the Rivers and Currituck Sound.
Winds diminish to 10-15 kt for Wed and turn to the SW by the aftn. SW winds then increase to 15-20 kt over the Bay and ~20 kt over the coastal waters Wed evening into early Thu morning as another upper-level disturbance slides through the area.
Another round of SCAs may be possible for at least the Ches Bay during this period. Sub SCA conditions then expected for Thu through Sat.
CLIMATE
As of 650 AM EST Tuesday...
* Record Low Temperatures for Wed 11/29:
* RIC: 10 (1930)
* ORF: 21 (1955)
* SBY: 10 (1930)
* ECG: 23 (1996)
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ630>632- 634-638-654-656.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ633- 635>637-658.
Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ650-652.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA | 17 mi | 54 min | W 17G | 44°F | 48°F | 29.96 | ||
| PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD | 23 mi | 54 min | NNW 22G | |||||
| 44042 - Potomac, MD | 24 mi | 48 min | NNW 18G | 40°F | 52°F | 2 ft | ||
| YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA | 28 mi | 102 min | W 5.1 | 44°F | 29.98 | 19°F | ||
| 44058 - Stingray Point, VA | 29 mi | 48 min | 43°F | 52°F | ||||
| SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD | 37 mi | 54 min | WNW 8.9G | 42°F | 53°F | 29.96 | ||
| NCDV2 | 39 mi | 54 min | NNW 12G | 42°F | 49°F | |||
| RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA | 41 mi | 54 min | W 19G | 30.01 | ||||
| 44041 - Jamestown, VA | 42 mi | 48 min | NW 25G | 43°F | 53°F | |||
| YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA | 42 mi | 54 min | W 15G | 44°F | 54°F | 29.93 | ||
| COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD | 43 mi | 54 min | WSW 22G | 41°F | 29.97 | |||
| BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD | 44 mi | 54 min | NW 18G | 42°F | 44°F | 29.96 | ||
| 44072 | 48 mi | 48 min | WNW 19G | 41°F | 53°F | 4 ft |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KXSA TAPPAHANNOCKESSEX COUNTY,VA | 11 sm | 17 min | W 10G17 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 46°F | 14°F | 27% | 29.99 | |
| KFYJ MIDDLE PENINSULA RGNL,VA | 21 sm | 17 min | W 14G26 | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 46°F | 18°F | 31% | 29.99 |
Wind History from FYJ
(wind in knots)Tide / Current for Bowlers Rock, Rappahannock River, Virginia
EDIT Weekend mode (on/off) (on/off) Help
Bowlers Rock
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:59 AM EST 1.75 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:00 AM EST Sunrise
Tue -- 07:22 AM EST -0.14 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:29 AM EST Moonset
Tue -- 01:25 PM EST 2.27 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:48 PM EST Sunset
Tue -- 05:40 PM EST Moonrise
Tue -- 08:22 PM EST -0.05 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:59 AM EST 1.75 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:00 AM EST Sunrise
Tue -- 07:22 AM EST -0.14 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:29 AM EST Moonset
Tue -- 01:25 PM EST 2.27 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:48 PM EST Sunset
Tue -- 05:40 PM EST Moonrise
Tue -- 08:22 PM EST -0.05 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Bowlers Rock, Rappahannock River, Virginia, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.6 |
| 1 am |
| 1.8 |
| 2 am |
| 1.6 |
| 3 am |
| 1.3 |
| 4 am |
| 0.9 |
| 5 am |
| 0.4 |
| 6 am |
| 0.1 |
| 7 am |
| -0.1 |
| 8 am |
| -0.1 |
| 9 am |
| 0.3 |
| 10 am |
| 0.8 |
| 11 am |
| 1.5 |
| 12 pm |
| 2 |
| 1 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 2 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 3 pm |
| 2 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 8 pm |
| -0 |
| 9 pm |
| 0 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.8 |
Wares Wharf
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:07 AM EST 1.75 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:00 AM EST Sunrise
Tue -- 07:30 AM EST -0.14 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:30 AM EST Moonset
Tue -- 01:34 PM EST 2.27 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:48 PM EST Sunset
Tue -- 05:40 PM EST Moonrise
Tue -- 08:30 PM EST -0.05 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:07 AM EST 1.75 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:00 AM EST Sunrise
Tue -- 07:30 AM EST -0.14 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:30 AM EST Moonset
Tue -- 01:34 PM EST 2.27 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:48 PM EST Sunset
Tue -- 05:40 PM EST Moonrise
Tue -- 08:30 PM EST -0.05 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Wares Wharf, Rappahannock River, Virginia, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.6 |
| 1 am |
| 1.8 |
| 2 am |
| 1.7 |
| 3 am |
| 1.4 |
| 4 am |
| 1 |
| 5 am |
| 0.5 |
| 6 am |
| 0.1 |
| 7 am |
| -0.1 |
| 8 am |
| -0.1 |
| 9 am |
| 0.2 |
| 10 am |
| 0.7 |
| 11 am |
| 1.4 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.9 |
| 1 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 2 pm |
| 2.3 |
| 3 pm |
| 2 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 8 pm |
| -0 |
| 9 pm |
| -0 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.7 |
Wakefield, VA,
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