Thursday, July18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Tangier, VA

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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 5:51AMSunset 8:25PM Thursday July 18, 2019 5:16 PM EDT (21:16 UTC) Moonrise 8:50PMMoonset 6:23AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ630 Chesapeake Bay From Smith Point To Windmill Point Va- 354 Pm Edt Thu Jul 18 2019
Through 7 pm..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Isolated showers and tstms.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S late. Waves 1 foot.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sun night..SW winds 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers and tstms likely in the afternoon.
Mon night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers and tstms likely. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ600 354 Pm Edt Thu Jul 18 2019
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure will remain off the southeast coast through the weekend. A cold front will move across the waters Monday night into Tuesday. Otherwise, hot and humid weather will continue until Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tangier, VA
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location: 37.84, -76.22     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 182025
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
425 pm edt Thu jul 18 2019

Synopsis
High pressure remains off the southeast coast through the weekend.

A trough of low pressure lingers across the area tonight, then
pushes south into the carolinas Friday. A cold front approaches from
the west Monday, ending the current heat wave.

Near term until 6 am Friday morning
As of 345 pm edt Thursday...

latest msas shows the remnant low of barry pushing off the nj coast
with a trailing sfc trof extending SW across the va nc piedmonts.

High res data shows convection continuing along this bndry this eve,
slowly pushing but lingering along the coast through the overnight
hours. Best support and coverage progged across the va NRN neck and
the lwr md ERN shore so will keep likely pops across those areas
late this aftrn erly eve. Otw, chc pops this eve taper off across
the west after midnite. Warm and muggy with lows in the mid-upr 70s.

Short term 6 am Friday morning through Sunday
As of 345 pm edt Thursday...

old fashion heat wave setting up this weekend with the highest heat
index values around these parts since july 2012. It starts Fri but
lingering trof boundary may spark off some late day storms across
sern va NE nc. Will carry low chc pops across the se, otw mstly
sunny hot. Highs 95-100 combined with dew points in the mid-up 70s
results in heat index values 105-110 over most of the fa except arnd
110 (excessive heat warning criteria) across portions of the east
and se. Warm and muggy Fri nite. Lows 75-80.

The heat peaks Sat as the airmass stays capped. Mstly sunny hot and
humid with highs upr 90s-lwr 100s except mid 90s along the coast.

Widespread heat index values btwn 110-115 will likely lead to an
excessive heat warning across most of the fa. Warm and Sat nite.

Lows mid 70s-lwr 80s.

Continued mstly sunny hot and humid sun. The cap breaks down a bit
late in the day allowing for sct convection to drift east off the
blue ridge and into the piedmont. Highs 95-100 with heat index
values 105-112.

Heat related headlines include a heat advsry (105-110) Fri for all
zones except sern va NE nc where an excessive heat warning (around
110) will be issue from Fri thru late Sat given the high confidence
in the Sat forecast and little if any cooling at Fri night. Sunday
is still a bit in question at this point so plan on holding off on
any headlines for now. Plenty of time to extend them as needed.

Long term Sunday night through Thursday
As of 415 pm edt Thursday...

guidance continues to suggest a fairly abrupt cool down by
Tuesday as a long wave trough sets up across the eastern half of
the country. The associated cold front will approach the area
Monday and then slowly move across the region Monday afternoon
into Monday night. This will lead to another hot day on Monday,
although likely not as hot as Saturday and Sunday, especially
due the clouds and numerous showers storms in the afternoon in
advance of the front. Still, expect highs well into the lower-
mid 90s with dew points in the middle 70s, so especially the
eastern half of the forecast area may need another heat related
headline. In addition, with the frontal passage, there is
certainly a risk for severe weather with stronger wind fields
aloft due to the lowering heights.

The front takes some time to pass south of the area with it
really not passing south of the area until Tuesday morning per
the gfs. The front then stalls south just south of the area
until it finally pushes further south on Thursday. As such,
there should be plenty of clouds and some showers especially
south on Tuesday. Will continue with chance pops across the
area, with likely pops far south Tue afternoon. Perhaps less
showers and clouds on Wednesday, but with the front nearby will
need to maintain chance pops across the south. Much of the area
dry Thursday, although small chance pops south. Highs generally
dropping back to the low-mid 80s for Tue and wed, then mid-upper
80s Thursday with more sunshine.

Aviation 21z Thursday through Tuesday
As of 130 pm edt Thursday...

vfr conditions to start off the forecast period with sct-bkn cu
and ac across the area. Still expect to see sct convection dvlp
over the west then traverse east after 21z as storms fire up on
a lingering trof that is located over the area. Once again, MVFR
cigs, gusty winds and varying vsbys in local heavy downpours are
possible in any storm. Storms end over the piedmont this eve, but
may linger along the sern coastal areas thru early fri. SW winds
10-20 kts outside of tstms.

Outlook...

bermuda high (heat dome) dominates over the weekend capping any
convection from developing Fri sat. This breaks down a bit sun
allowing for some late day convection over the piedmont. A better
and more widespread chc for convection comes later Mon as a cold
front apprchs the area.

Marine
As of 400 pm edt Thursday...

generally quiet marine conditions through the weekend with the
bermuda high remaining parked SE of the area through the
weekend. Still seeing south- southwest wind at 10-15kt this
afternoon. However, these southerly winds should relax to 5-10kt
tonight and remain at 5-10 Friday into Fri evening. Will
increase winds to south- southwest 10-15 kt Saturday into
Monday. A cold front will pass across the waters Monday night
into Tue morning leading to winds shifting to the N to NE for
tue into wed. SE swell of 3-4 ft will continue over the open
waters with waves 1-2 ft in the bay.

Climate
Upcoming heatwave may challenge or break record highs and or
record high lows (esp from Fri through sun).

Richmond record high record high low
thu (7 18) 101 1977 77 2005
fri (7 19) 101 1942 77 2013
sat (7 20) 103 1930 78 2013
sun (7 21) 104 1930 77 1930
mon (7 22) 103 1952 79 2011
norfolk record high record high low
thu (7 18) 104 1942 79 1995
fri (7 19) 101 1942 84 1942
sat (7 20) 102 1942 79 1977
sun (7 21) 101 1926 80 1983
mon (7 22) 102 2011 82 2011
salisbury record high record high low
thu (7 18) 100 2012 78 2012
fri (7 19) 99 1977 78 2013
sat (7 20) 104 1930 83 2013
sun (7 21) 106 1930 77 2017
mon (7 22) 104 1930 80 2011
elizabeth city record high record high low
thu (7 18) 107 1942 79 2012
fri (7 19) 105 1942 80 2012
sat (7 20) 104 1942 78 2012
sun (7 21) 102 1987 79 1983
mon (7 22) 104 1952 79 2011

Equipment
As of 130 pm edt Thursday...

kakq radar is back to normal operation.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... Heat advisory from 11 am to 8 pm edt Friday for mdz021>025.

Nc... Excessive heat warning from 11 am Friday to 8 pm edt Saturday
for ncz012>017-030>032-102.

Heat advisory until 7 pm edt this evening for ncz012>017-
030>032-102.

Va... Heat advisory from 11 am to 8 pm edt Friday for vaz048-060>062-
064>069-075>086-099-100-509>522.

Excessive heat warning from 11 am Friday to 8 pm edt Saturday
for vaz087>090-092-093-095>098-523>525.

Heat advisory until 7 pm edt this evening for vaz077-078-
081>090-092-093-095>100-518-520-523>525.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Mpr
near term... Mpr
short term... Mpr
long term... Mrd
aviation... Mpr
marine... Mrd
climate...

equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 17 mi52 min W 6 G 8 91°F 83°F1010.8 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 24 mi46 min 1012.2 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 26 mi46 min NW 7 G 7
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 28 mi52 min S 8 G 9.9 88°F 88°F1011.5 hPa
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 33 mi46 min SW 8.9 G 16 89°F 1011.2 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 35 mi46 min W 6 G 9.9 91°F 84°F1010.4 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 40 mi46 min WNW 2.9 G 8 89°F 1011.5 hPa
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 41 mi46 min SW 7 G 8 87°F 1012.2 hPa
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 45 mi46 min WSW 8 G 12 91°F 85°F1011.1 hPa
44089 47 mi46 min 81°F3 ft
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 48 mi52 min WSW 8.9 G 11 85°F

Wind History for Lewisetta, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St. Inigoes, Webster Field, Naval Electronic Systems Engineering Activity, MD24 mi23 minWSW 610.00 miFair95°F75°F53%1010.5 hPa

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2 days ago3E4E3E4E3Calm3CalmSE3S3S4S5S5S3SW5SW4SW4W33SW6SW4W4S6SE6

Tide / Current Tables for Fleet Point, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Fleet Point
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:39 AM EDT     1.19 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:57 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:23 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:15 AM EDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:01 PM EDT     1.01 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:09 PM EDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:50 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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11.21.21.10.90.60.30.100.10.20.50.80.9110.80.60.30.20.10.10.30.6

Tide / Current Tables for Glebe Point, Great Wicomico River, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Glebe Point
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:56 AM EDT     1.42 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:57 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:23 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:38 AM EDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:18 PM EDT     1.21 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:32 PM EDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:50 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.11.31.41.31.10.80.50.20.10.10.20.50.81.11.21.210.80.50.30.10.10.30.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.