Wednesday, July8, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Tangier, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:45AMSunset 8:30PM Wednesday July 8, 2020 6:44 PM EDT (22:44 UTC) Moonrise 10:14PMMoonset 8:07AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ630 Chesapeake Bay From Smith Point To Windmill Point Va- 427 Pm Edt Wed Jul 8 2020
Through 7 pm..SE winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Tonight..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming E 5 to 10 kt in the late evening and overnight. Waves 1 foot.
Thu..E winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Fri night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. Showers likely, mainly in the evening.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ600 427 Pm Edt Wed Jul 8 2020
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure centered off the mid atlantic coast today gets nudged east as low pressure approaches from the southwest. The low moves up the coast from Thursday night into Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tangier, VA
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location: 37.84, -76.22     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 082119 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 519 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure slowly drifts northeast along the Carolina overnight through Thursday before lifting northeast along the Mid Atlantic coast Friday and Saturday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 340 PM EDT Wednesday .

Latest analysis indicates ~1010mb sfc low pressure just off the southeast coast of NC near Wilmington. The system remains fairly disorganized but NHC is monitoring for potential tropical development through the next 24 hrs+. Aloft, the flow is very light as a minimal upper low (H5 heights ~586dm) is centered from southwest VA to the NC coast. Locally, a very warm/humid airmass is in place, but the deeper moisture is confined to southern VA and NE NC. The 12Z morning sounding from MHX had an observed Precipitable Water value of 2.35" while to the N, WAL was only 1.23". SPC mesoanalysis indicates that the current PWAT are 2.00" or greater over far SE VA/NE NC and are about 1.40" over NE portions of the CWA where a weak upper ridge is still in place. Scattered to numerous showers with isolated tstms continue in the south, while there is little to no precipitation from about FVX to RIC to the eastern shore. Locally heavy rain can be expected into the early evening over the south, but with weak shear, the showers/storms have been short-lived in any one location so only minor flooding has been observed thus far. Likely to high chance PoPs (highest from south central VA to interior NE NC) are tapered to just 20% (or less) across central/eastern Va and the eastern shore. After sunset, as the sfc low will be very slow to move NNE along the coast of southeast NC expect instability to diminish shortly after sunset so PoPs will tend to drop off during the evening with mainly just 20-40% PoPs remaining in NE NC and far southern VA. Overnight, as the low gradually moves farther NE to near Cape Hatteras, expect to see increasing PoPs (to likely) moving back into NE NC and possibly far SE VA between 06-12Z. Locally heavy rain threat will be increasing closer to 12Z as well but the bulk of the heavy rain will probably stay confined to NE NC until later Thu morning. Will have some low chance PoPs reaching as far N as the VA eastern shore and metro RIC (with minimal QPF) prior to 12Z. Warm/humid with lows mainly 70-75F.

WPC Day 2 excessive rain outlook highlights the eastern 1/2 of the CWA in a Marginal Risk for Thu (though 12Z/Fri). Some of the high res model data shows extreme rainfall amts reaching the eastern shore and even into eastern VA W of the Bay later thu/thu night. The GFS/ECMWF have trended a little heavier in their QPF output as well so have trended the forecast upward to show heavy rain later Thu AM into Thu aftn across NE NC/SE VA, and eventually the eastern shore as a consensus forecast of the sfc low is near or just off the coast or ern NC/SE VA by 00z/Fri. This brings PWAT values in excess of 2.00" to the SE 1/2 of the CWA by 12Z and to most of the CWA by 00Z/Fri with SE 1/2 of the CWA approaching 2.50" during the aftn. Noting that the 12z/08 GFS is faster (and likely too fast) in pushing the system N compared to the NAM/ECMWF and WPC progs. Will continue with likely PoPs SE with chance Pops N and W. Highs upper 80s/near 90F NW to the lower- mid 80s SE. Total QPF amounts through 00Z Fri will avg 1-2" over far SE VA/NE NC to 0.25" or less over the 1-95 corridor and west and on the MD eastern shore.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/. As of 415 PM EDT Wednesday .

The center of the system tracks NNE Thu night/Fri AM, hugging the coast somewhere in the vicinity of SE VA or the Va eastern shore by 12Z/Fri. This period will see the potential for the heaviest rain shifting N and through the day Fri, The event total QPF (through Sat) will avg 2-3" along the coast, with less than 1" along/W of I-95. Slight shifts in the track could lead to significant changes so this will continue to be monitored closely (more offshore track would keep the higher amounts off the coast while an inland track could spread heavy rain all the way to the I-95 corridor. In general, the wind impacts will be minimal except at the immediate coast (see Marine section for more detail). Highs Fri around 90F well inland with 80s to the E.

The system should mostly be off to the NE of the local area by Fri night and Sat, but a lagging upper trough will bring above climo PoPs (~50%) for Sat aftn/early evening tstms. Highs Sat into the upper 80s/lower 90s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 315 PM EDT Wednesday .

Overall the operational models are in decent agreement with a Eastern US Trough being the dominant weather feature in the extended period, but the strength of the trough differs. The GFS is sharpest and deepest during the period while the ECMWF is quicker to begin lifting the trough out toward the end of the period. For now have blended between the two with having more convective activity early in the period on Sunday and Monday with a stronger trough and an associated sfc cold front moving into the area. Then begin to lessen the chances for convection by mid week as the surface front dissipates and the Bermuda High starts to rebuild into the SE US. The pops are mainly diurnal with the best chances for pcpn late in the afternoon into the early evening. For temperatures have kept readings in the low 90s through the period, but should the trough deepen a little more on Sunday into Monday, would not be surprised to see temperatures held down just a touch into the upper 80s for early in the week. But overall should not be far from normal with highs in the lower 90s and lows in the low to mid 70s.

AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. As of 200 PM EDT Wednesday .

Scattered/numerous showers (and isolated embedded tstms) will continue across southern VA and NE NC through 00Z. Flight restrictions will mostly be from MVFR CIGs and VSBYs in these showers but brief IFR VSBYs will occur in the heaviest rain. Partly sunny/mainly dry at RIC/SBY. Winds are from the E/SE at around 10kt, but from the E at 10-15kt at the coast.

Mainly VFR conditions this evening as showers diminish (a low chance will persist across NE NC). Patchy fog will be possible overnight across the Piedmont and on the eastern shore and have included this in the TAf at SBY from 06-12Z. Low pressure off the southern NC coast will bring a steady increase in low level moisture Thu AM. While most of the rain will stay confined to far SE VA/NE NC until late Thu morning, there is a good chance for flight restrictions in low clouds to develop at all sites prior to 12Z and for now have mainly MVFR CIGs early Thu AM. Rain becomes fairly widespread with MVFR CIGs/VSBYs during the day Thu (may not be until the aftn for RIC/SBY).

OUTLOOK . Shower chances remain high (especially along the coast) Thu night through Fri as low pressure moves NNE from NE NC to the Delmarva coast. Breezy E/NE winds become NE to N Fri. Scattered tstms possible Sat, generally less coverage Sun.

MARINE. As of 445 PM EDT Wednesday .

Afternoon surface analysis shows high pressure well offshore into the Atlantic with a broad area of low pressure off the Carolina/GA coast. Winds are generally out of the east 10-15 kts across the southern half of the area. Across the northern waters, winds remain SE 5-10 kts. Waves in the bay are 1-2 ft (highest at the mouth of the bay) with seas generally 2-3 ft.

Persistent easterly flow today across the southern bay and especially lower James river will continue this evening with continued potential for a few gusts approaching 20 knots. Think this threat will be best handled with Marine Weather Statements as needed given the marginal magnitude and limited geographic area affected. Winds in this area are forecast to relax near or shortly after sunset with general 10-15 knots expected for the lower bay and southern coastal waters through midnight. Thereafter, winds begin to slowly increase from south to north with 15-20 knots becoming prevalent after 12z Thursday morning for the southern coastal waters and Currituck Sound, an hour or two later for the southern bay and lower James river as low pressure deepens and moves very slowly northeast. The NHC is monitoring this low for potential tropical development but the current broad nature of the low and proximity to land (and drier continental air) are limiting factors. Uncertainty increases markedly by Thursday afternoon as models show a variety of potential scenarios. The 12z GFS is by far the fastest model with the low near the mouth of the Ches bay by Thursday evening while the NAM, GEM, and ECMWF show the low centered near or just north of Cape Hatteras. Differences compound from there with significant deviations in timing and track through Friday morning and beyond. The 12z NAM is on the western edge of the model consensus with a track right up the Ches bay, while the ECMWF and GEM are the farther offshore. Preferred the somewhat slower/farther east track of the ECMWF for this forecast with a nod toward the overall westward shift in the 12z guidance. Will show winds increasing to 20-25 knots offshore and 15-20 knots across the bay from late Thursday morning through the evening with seas increasing to 4-6 ft offshore. Waves will range from 2-3 ft in the northern bay to 3-5 ft across the southern bay (5ft most likely at the mouth of the bay). As the low moves north of the region, winds will become NW across the bay. Seas remain in the 4-6 ft range N through Friday evening before decreasing into Saturday morning.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Nuisance to minor coastal flooding is possible around high tide cycles on Thursday and Friday. Water level rises of around 1 ft above normal tide possible.

High risk of rip currents on Thursday for Virginia Beach and NE NC beaches. Moderate risk of rip currents for the MD/VA eastern shore.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Thursday to 7 AM EDT Friday for ANZ632-634-656-658. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 10 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ638. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Thursday to 7 AM EDT Friday for ANZ650-652-654.

SYNOPSIS . LKB NEAR TERM . LKB SHORT TERM . LKB/MPR LONG TERM . ESS AVIATION . LKB/MPR MARINE . RHR TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . AKQ


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 17 mi116 min ESE 11 G 13 81°F1013.8 hPa
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 19 mi98 min SSE 9.7 G 9.7 84°F1017.9 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 24 mi116 min ESE 12 G 13 1014.3 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 26 mi116 min SE 11 G 12
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 28 mi116 min S 9.9 G 12 87°F1013.9 hPa
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 33 mi116 min E 8.9 G 11 1014.3 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 35 mi116 min SE 9.9 G 14 83°F1013.7 hPa
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 39 mi134 min SE 1.9 88°F 1015 hPa75°F
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 40 mi116 min SSE 9.9 G 12 1014.3 hPa
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 41 mi116 min SE 11 G 13 1014.3 hPa
44072 44 mi114 min S 9.7 G 12 80°F
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 45 mi116 min E 9.9 G 13 81°F1013.5 hPa
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 48 mi116 min ESE 9.9 G 14 80°F

Wind History for Lewisetta, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St. Inigoes, Webster Field, Naval Electronic Systems Engineering Activity, MD24 mi51 minESE 810.00 miFair87°F73°F63%1013 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNUI

Wind History from NUI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE8SE9SE5SE5SE6S6SE7S6S6S4S4CalmCalmSW5S45S7E7E7E7SE4SE7E7SE8
1 day agoSE6SE7SE6SE5NE104NE12
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2 days agoS5S6S4S5S4S6S9S4S5S5S4SW6--S5SW7SW6SW8S5S5SE9SE9S8
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Tide / Current Tables for Fleet Point, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Fleet Point
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:56 AM EDT     1.18 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:50 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:07 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 09:31 AM EDT     -0.00 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:22 PM EDT     1.02 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:33 PM EDT     0.05 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:14 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.91.11.21.10.90.70.40.2000.20.40.70.9110.90.70.40.20.10.10.2

Tide / Current Tables for Glebe Point, Great Wicomico River, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Glebe Point
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:13 AM EDT     1.40 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:51 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:08 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 09:54 AM EDT     -0.00 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:39 PM EDT     1.21 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:56 PM EDT     0.06 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:14 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.611.31.41.41.20.90.60.30.1-00.10.40.711.21.21.10.90.60.30.10.10.2

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.