Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Tangier, VA

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
As of 650 PM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- An Arctic cold front crosses the area late this evening-early tonight.

- Cold Weather Advisories have been issued for most of the eastern shore from 1 AM to 9 AM Wednesday as wind chills are forecast to drop to around 5F across portions of the lower Maryland eastern shore.

An Arctic cold front, currently over West Virginia, will quickly approach and cross the area later this evening into the first part of the night. Along and ahead of the boundary expect increasing clouds and a few flurries, but with the dry air at the surface would not expect much more than flurries. No accumulation is expected. Behind the front, an Arctic airmass will filter in and winds will freshen considerably, with the highest gusts being realized on the Eastern Shore. Wind chills are forecast to drop to around 5-10F in a majority of the Eastern Shore counties, so a Cold Weather Advisory is in effect starting late tonight through tomorrow morning. For the remainder of the area, wind chills are forecast to range from ~10-15F so additional Cold Weather Advisories are not expected at this time. Low temperatures will range from the mid to upper teens across the northwest and northern half of the area, to the low to mid 20s across the southeast.

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
As of 311 PM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Breezy conditions will continue on Wednesday, especially near the coast.

- Cold conditions are expected on Wednesday and Wednesday night with widespread teens for lows Wednesday night. Winds diminish Wednesday night, so wind chills will not be much lower than actual air temperatures.

- Temperatures begin to moderate some on Thursday and Friday.

Breezy conditions will continue through a majority of the day on Wednesday, with gusts of 15 to 20 mph inland and 25 to 30 mph along the coast and Eastern Shore. The Arctic airmass behind tonight's front will bring cold temperatures to the region tomorrow, with high temperatures remaining in the 30s. The increased winds will keep wind chills across the local area in the 20s, so a cold day is on tap. Winds will begin to taper off tomorrow evening as high pressure currently centered over the Northern Plains slides southeastward and builds into our area. Temperatures Wednesday night will plummet into the teens to low 20s overnight as clear skies and lighter winds allow for good radiational cooling. Luckily with winds slackening, the threat of reaching Cold Weather Advisory is not quite as high because apparent temperature will not deviate much from the actual temperature.

Heading into Thursday, an upper-trough will move across the region, bringing increased cloudiness during the day. Temperatures will start to gradually moderate, and most areas will see highs reaching the upper 30s to lower 40s. As the upper-low transits off into the western North Atlantic on Thursday night, cloud cover will wane.
Mostly clear skies and highs in the lower to mid 40s will prevail on Friday ahead of our next chance of rain on Saturday.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 305 PM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Temperatures moderate by the end the week and into the weekend.

- Rain chances increase this weekend with a slight chance of rain becoming snow Monday.

- Behind a cold front this weekend, colder weather arrives early next week.

High pressure moves quickly off shore from the southeast Friday evening as multiple low pressure systems tracks across the continental United State. Temperatures Saturday will start out in the upper 20s to lower 30s and quickly warm up into the middle to upper 40s across the north and upper 40s to lower 50s across the south and southeasterly flow returns to the region. By Saturday evening a subtle cold front will move through the area causing winds to shift out of the northwest. Low temperatures Saturday into Sunday will not be as cold as the days a head with temperatures falling into the lower to middle 30s inland and upper 30s along the coast.
By mid-day Sunday a second surge of much colder air will move into the area. Highs will reach into the lower to middle 40s across the north and upper 40s to lower 50s across the south. Night time lows Sunday will be much colder than previous nights with temperatures falling into the lower to middle 20s across the north and upper 20s to lower 30s across the north. The 14/12z ensembles continue to hint on a strong high pressure coming out of the west ushering much colder air across the Mid-Atlantic by the start of next week. Highs for Monday will reach into the lower to middle 30s across the northwest and upper 30s to lower 40s along the coast. Nighttime lows Monday will be much colder with temperatures plummeting into the lower to upper teens across the area. Tuesday next week could be much colder with highs nearly making it to freezing with highs in the upper 20s to lower 30s.

Rain chances are reintroduced back into the forecast Saturday into Sunday as a cold front associated with a low pressure system to the north tracks across the CWA Categorical POPs remain in the forecast through the weekend as 14/12z ensemble guidance continues to hint on a potential shortwave behind the cold front Saturday into Sunday.
Sunday into late Monday the ensemble guidance from both the Euro and GFS hint on a weak low pressure system forming just off the coast.
This system could bring another chance of rain showers early Sunday morning before possibly transitioning into a rain/snow mix. Some of the operational model soundings do show a a saturated column up to the DGZ that would be optimal for ice crystal formation. However, there should not be any accumulation as temperatures will be hovering above freezing. Confidence at this time is still low on placement and timing of this possible transition. Trends will continue to be monitored. After Monday chances of Pops decrease as much colder and drier air returns to the CWA

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 650 PM EST Tuesday...

VFR conditions will prevail through the 00z/15 forecast period.
SKC skies will be replaced by increasing cloudiness tonight as a cold front moves through the area. CIGs will remain at or above 5 kft, so no issues with flight categories are expected. A few flurries could develop mainly along the eastern VA counties into the Eastern Shore, but no impacts are expected. Skies become SKC later tonight, remaining SKC through the forecast period. Behind the front, WNW winds will increase, and gusts of 20 to 25 knots are expected through tomorrow.

Outlook: VFR with mainly clear skies from Wed-Fri. The elevated WNW- NW winds continue through Wednesday with gusts of 20 to 25 kt expected (highest across the MD eastern shore). Lighter winds are expected on Thu/Fri. A low pressure system will likely bring rain to the terminals from Sat-Sat night, along with a period of sub-VFR conditions.

MARINE
As of 700 PM EST Tuesday...

- Gale Warnings are in effect tonight for gusts to 35 kt behind a strong cold front for the Bay and coastal waters. SCAs remain in effect for the rivers and sound. Light freezing spray is also expected after midnight in some areas.

- Winds slowly decrease Wednesday, with sub-SCA conditions Wednesday night and most of Thursday.

Relatively light winds prevail this aftn with the approaching cold front still off to our NW. The much stronger cold front passage is expected later this evening and overnight, bringing gale- force wind gusts to all of the coastal waters and Chesapeake Bay. Gale Warnings are now in effect for the Chesapeake Bay and coastal waters (including the NC coastal waters), though the strongest winds are expected after midnight.
Generally, NW winds are forecast in the 25-30 kt range with gusts up to around 35 kt. Brief higher gusts are possible along the leading edge of the strongest cold advection, though trends are generally down this cycle. SCAs are in effect for the rivers and Currituck Sound as wind gusts should fall shy of gales for these areas. Another area of concern is light freezing spray tonight/early Wednesday given the cold/windy conditions and cool water temps. Seas build to 4-7 ft during this surge, highest in the srn waters due to the NNW wind direction, while waves in the bay build to 3-5 ft. Winds gradually decrease during the day Wednesday, though SCAs are likely to be needed during the ramp- down period.

Lighter winds then return overnight Wednesday into early Thursday as transient high pressure slides over the region, also allowing seas to reduce to 2-3 ft. Yet another (weaker) cold front approaches Thursday afternoon, passing through sometime Thursday evening or night. Marginal SCAs are possible just ahead of and behind the front, with the highest confidence of this on the coastal waters. A stronger front is expected by Sat and SW winds increase ahead of it, followed by NNW winds increasing later Sunday into next Monday.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Wednesday for MDZ021>025.
NC...None.
VA...Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Wednesday for VAZ099.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ630>632-634-650- 652-654-656-658.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ633- 635>638.