Sunrise 5:39 AM   Sunset 8:21 PM Moonrise 1:08 AM   Moonset 12:55 PM

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ANZ630 Chesapeake Bay From Smith Point To Windmill Point Va- 715 Pm Edt Fri May 31 2024
Tonight - NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Sat - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Sat night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Sun - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Sun night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers. Mon - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers in the morning. Mon night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. Tue - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. Tue night - SE winds 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.

ANZ600 715 Pm Edt Fri May 31 2024
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
high pressure builds in from the northwest tonight and Saturday. The high will then move offshore by Sunday, and is expected to become anchored well off the southeast coast into early next week.

FXUS61 KAKQ 010139 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 939 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure builds over the area tonight into Saturday with dry conditions expected. A weak low system will bring the chance for showers and a few storms late Sunday into Monday. Warm and more humid conditions are expected by the mid to late portion of next week with the potential for daily scattered showers and storms.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 940 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Pleasantly cool and dry tonight, continued dry and a bit warmer Saturday.

The latest WX analysis indicates ~1025 mb sfc high pressure centered across the upper OH Valley. Aloft, a shortwave trough has pushed offshore of the SE VA/NC coast with an upper level ridge across the TN/lower OH Valley. A clear sky prevails this evening. Very low humidity/pleasant for the last day of May with temperatures ranging from the mid 50s to lower 60s this evening. Clear tonight as the sfc high eventually settles overhead, allowing for efficient radiational cooling. Lows tonight range from the mid- upper 40s inland (lower 50s for urban areas) and in the 50s closer to the coast. High pressure moves offshore Sat aftn, with winds becoming S/SSW. This will allow for temps to rise back into the lower 80s on Sat (though dew pts remain quite low in the mid 40s to low 50s). Mostly sunny with just a few high clouds by aftn.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 345 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- There is a chance for showers and storms late Sunday afternoon through Sunday night into Monday.

The latest 12Z/31 models are in decent agreement with the upper ridge flattening and shifting off the coast on Sunday, as a weakening shortwave traverses across the region Sunday night/early Monday. Instability parameters are rather weak, but with some semblance of a cold pool aloft, will maintain 30-40% PoPs late Sun/Sun night across the north tapered to ~20% PoPs in the south. Partly/variably cloudy Sunday with highs around 80F NW to the mid 80s SE. Dew pts will be higher, but not exactly humid in the upper 50s to lower 60s. The models show increasing disagreement for Monday, with the NAM/GFS lingering precip and moisture while the ECWMF shows more a subsidence zone developing as the upper trough shifts off the coast. Given the upper level pattern, will go a bit drier than the NAM/GFS but will still have lingering slight chc PoPs (~20%) for most areas. Highs lower 80s near the coast to the mid 80s inland.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 350 PM EDT Friday...

Key Message:

- Turning more humid with daily chances for showers and storms mid to late week.

Aloft, weak upper ridging is expected Tuesday, gradually breaking down mid to late week as an anomalous upper trough moves from the upper midwest to the Great Lakes and NE/mid Atlantic. There remains a fair amount of model spread with respect to timing and and location of the main features, so uncertainty is still rather high as to how much moisture reaches the local area, especially Tue-Wed. Overall, will have PoPs lowest Tue, ramping up later Wed through Thu. The 12Z/31 ECMWF would suggest a drier forecast until Thu while the GFS shows at least chc PoPs Tue-Thu and dry Friday. The forecast will follow close to the NBM given the disagreement, favoring mainly 20% PoPs Tue, 30-50% later Wed/Thu, and ~30% Friday. Temperatures will be near to a little above average with highs generally in the mid to upper 80s and lows in the 60s through the period.

AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 740 PM EDT Friday...

High pressure is centered over the region as of 00z and will prevail through the TAF period bringing VFR conditions under a clear/sunny sky. The wind will mainly be light and variable tonight into early Saturday morning, and then become W-NW 5-10kt later Saturday morning, before becoming S-SW by afternoon (locally NE at ORF).

High pressure slides offshore Saturday night/Sunday. Dry and VFR conditions are expected to prevail through most of Sunday, with a chc for showers/storms late Sunday through Sunday night (highest chc RIC-SBY). Mainly dry and VFR Monday and Tuesday with a minimal chc (20% or less) of aftn/evening showers/tstms.
A slightly increased chc of aftn/evening showers/tstms is forecast by Wednesday (20-40%).

MARINE
As of 325 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

-High pressure will build over the region this weekend with light offshore flow expected.

-An area of low pressure will arrive late in the weekend into early next week with southerly flow increasing with a chance for showers and thunderstorms.

High pressure that is centered over Eastern portions of the Ohio Valley this afternoon will continue to push into the area waters tonight and Saturday. This will continue the trend seen this afternoon of the weakening Northerly flow, which is currently around 15 kt on the Bay and southern coastal waters. As the high builds eastward, expect the westerly winds to drop back to 5 - 10 kt tonight and tomorrow. By Saturday night the area of high pressure will slide off the coast allowing the flow to turn back to the south ahead of an approaching low pressure system that arrives late in the weekend into Monday. This will kick the winds back up to the 10 - 15 kt range with some showers and thunderstorms expected.

Conditions should remain benign into the middle of next week as high pressure build southward through the Mid-Atlantic states on Tuesday and Wednesday. The flow will turn to a northerly or northeasterly flow, but with the pressure gradient relaxed, not anticipating wind above 15 kt. Overall for the period not anticipating any conditions that would require SCA headlines at this time.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

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Great Wicomico River Light
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Fri -- 12:58 AM EDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:08 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:44 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:59 AM EDT     1.10 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:27 PM EDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:55 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:39 PM EDT     1.16 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Great Wicomico River Light, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia, Tide feet

Glebe Point
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Fri -- 01:24 AM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:08 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:16 AM EDT     1.25 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:53 PM EDT     0.05 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:55 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:56 PM EDT     1.32 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Glebe Point, Great Wicomico River, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia, Tide feet

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