Toronto, KS Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Toronto, KS

June 22, 2024 10:47 PM CDT (03:47 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:00 AM   Sunset 8:53 PM
Moonrise 9:05 PM   Moonset 5:11 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Toronto, KS
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Area Discussion for - Wichita, KS
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FXUS63 KICT 222334 AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 634 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms in Eastern Kansas this afternoon and evening

- Hot and humid conditions across the region into next week

- Next chance for rain looks to be Tuesday afternoon/evening

DISCUSSION
Issued at 221 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Current satellite shows a weak frontal system slowly moving across the region this afternoon and is accompanied by a monsoonal plume of moisture from the Desert Southwest. This stream of moisture has served to bring PW values into 1.5 to 2.1 inch range this afternoon which is well above normal for this time of year. Combine this moisture with approaching front and the risk of showers and thunderstorms increase for this afternoon and into the evening. Most of the short term ensembles and the CAMS are having difficultly resolving this frontal system as the mid and upper level support is rather weak. Additionally, deep layer shear is not that great over the CWA at this time. The better shear values are further to the north and east of the CWA As such, there does not seem to be enough forcing available or instability to really get a bunch of showers and thunderstorms to start. That said, do expect isolated showers and thunderstorms to be present this evening. This will mainly be along and east of the Turnpike (I-35). Given the high PW values, any storm that does develop will be capable of heavy downpours which could cause ponding on roadways or brief localized flooding. Another concern is the DCAPE values in Eastern Kansas this afternoon which is in the 400-800 J/KG range. This indicates a strong potential, if storms develop, for storms to produce some strong gusty winds into the 60 mph range. Wind appears to be the main threat but some small hail is also possible with any storm that develops. Any activity that does occur is expected to abate by early morning Sunday.

Sunday through Tuesday will have some ridging building into the region. This will keep the chances for showers and thunderstorms to a minimum if at all but it will have the consequence of hot conditions. Temperatures are likely to breech the century mark for most areas of the CWA for the first time this year. This will also create heat indices of 105-110 across the CWA Monday and Tuesday will have the best chance for these higher temperatures. Tuesday afternoon, many of the ensembles are indicating an increased potential for showers and thunderstorms which is likely to provide some relief to the region. This will likely bring temperatures down below the century mark for the remainder of the weekend.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
Issued at 626 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

There are minimal concerns for this forecast period for most locations. A cool front is dropping southeast and just went through KHUT. Breezy winds will diminish quickly this evening before becoming light and variable for the overnight into Sunday period. Isolated to scattered showers and storms may further develop in eastern Kansas as the front tracks southeast.
Confidence is low in the occurrence for any given location thus it was decided to use a tempo group for KCNU instead of VCTS especially given the radar trends of the last couple of hours.
If a storm were to impact the site, it could produce downburst winds of 60 mph, up to quarter sized hail and a period of heavy rain. Otherwise VFR conditions should prevail.

CLIMATE
Issued at 222 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Record highs for Monday and Tuesday:

Monday Tuesday

Wichita 103 (1980) 107 (1911)
Salina 107 (1937) 114 (1911)
Chanute 105 (1918) 104 (1933)
Russell 112 (2012) 108 (2012)

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.




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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KCNU30 sm55 minSSW 1110 smMostly Cloudy88°F72°F59%29.85
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