Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Toronto, KS

DISCUSSION
Issued at 234 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2025

Anomalously deep upper low remains over northwest Ontario and encompasses most of the Plains through the eastern half of the CONUS, providing widespread below normal temps. Area of light snow is affecting southern KS into northern OK and is developing along 925-850mb frontogenesis. We saw some pockets of moderate to heavy snow this afternoon due to some very low level instability developing. Ran with a short fused winter weather advisory mainly due to the low visibility with the heavier snow band. Area of snow will continue to slide southeast and will be mostly out of the forecast area by 00z.

Still looking for the coldest air of the season so far to affect the region tonight into Tue morning. Clear skies and light winds will allow for good radiational cooling conditions and temps to plummet. Some records will be in jeopardy, especially across central KS. Luckily winds will remain light through most of the night but will increase slightly after sunrise. So currently expecting the coldest wind chills to occur in the 12-15z time frame due to a slight increase in winds.
Even though we are looking for higher max temps on Tue, gusty southwest winds will still make it feel very cold with low wind chills expected through the day.

By 00z Wed, northwest flow aloft will be in place with another upper impulse diving southeast out of southern Saskatchewan and across the Northern Rockies on Tue night. This feature will reinforce the upper trough and will allow below normal temps to remain in place on Wed. Not much is expected to change for Thu with upper troughing remaining from the Great Lakes through the Southern Plains and will once again allow for below normal temps on Thu, with highs in the 30s for most locations. Upper trough will finally push east on Fri as yet another shortwave trough digs across the Pacific Northwest and into Northern CA/Great Basin on Fri night. Lee troughing ahead of the upper trough will bring southwest winds to the region along with temps finally getting into the 40s and possibly low 50s for Friday. We look to get into a split flow regime for the weekend, with the Western CONUS low getting cutoff from the northern stream upper trough over the Upper Mississippi Valley into southeast Canada. This setup will keep the better precip chances west of our forecast area with below normal temps remaining in place for most locations, especially on Sunday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 1037 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2025

Light and variable winds will continue overnight. Winds will become southerly Tuesday morning at 10-15 kt with gusts near 20 kt. Gusts will subside near 00Z Wednesday with sustained winds near 10 kt continuing.

CLIMATE
Issued at 234 PM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

Record Lows Possible the Morning of January 21

Wichita: Forecast: -4 Record: -7 in 1935 Salina: Forecast: -10 Record: -7 in 1935 Russell: Forecast: -7 Record: -8 in 1966

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST Tuesday for KSZ032-033- 047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.