Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Toronto, KS
May 20, 2024 6:41 AM CDT (11:41 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:07 AM Sunset 8:35 PM Moonrise 5:00 PM Moonset 3:24 AM |
FXUS63 KICT 201126 AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 626 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- A rogue/isolated severe storm possible this afternoon-evening.
- A few severe thunderstorms possible Tuesday afternoon-evening.
- Additional chances for off-and-on thunderstorms Thursday through the weekend.
- Near to above average temperatures the next several days.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 325 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024
THIS MORNING...Additional hit-or-miss showers/thunderstorms are possible across portions of central and eastern Kansas, within a zone of continued strong 850-700mb warm advection and moisture transport. Thinking these chances will gradually shift into eastern, northeast, and northern Kansas as the morning progresses, and could linger into the afternoon. Ample elevated instability in concert with modest effective deep layer shear may support dime size hail and 50 mph winds with the strongest activity.
THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING...Widespread thunderstorm development is unlikely this afternoon-evening, due to large scale height rises and associated subsidence in wake of shortwave energy. However, a remnant outflow boundary currently over Oklahoma is expected to mix northward through the day. While convergence in the vicinity of this old outflow probably won't be particularly strong, it may prove sufficient for a stray thunderstorm or two to develop. Should this happen, strong buoyancy amidst long hodographs would support supercells capable of large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two.
TONIGHT-EARLY TUESDAY...Increasing deep warm advection and moisture transport ahead of another approaching upper wave should support scattered to numerous thunderstorms across mainly Nebraska, although some of this activity could trickle into northern Kansas north of I- 70.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON-NIGHT...The potential for a few severe thunderstorms exists southeast of the KS Turnpike, as the parent western CONUS upper trough ejects onto the Great Plains, and a cold front/dryline combo sharpens across the region. The best forcing looks to remain northeast of the region, which should keep storms a bit more isolated with southwestward extent. Strong instability coupled with long hodographs will support the potential for severe storms. However, deep layer shear is oriented strongly parallel to the cold front/dryline intersection, and hodograph shape is less than ideal, which should support a mixed storm mode and/or splitting supercells (which would then result in more storm interactions and interference). This may cut into the severe potential, stay tuned.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...After a break Wednesday, model consensus supports the potential for a continued off-and-on active pattern thunderstorm-wise across the Heartland Thursday through the weekend , as another longwave trough takes shape across the western CONUS, ejecting various pieces of upper energy northeast onto Mid- America. Details on timing, amplitude, and placement of synoptic features continues to remain unclear at this time, which will have a big impact on severe weather implications. Stay tuned for later forecasts.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 621 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024
Minor aviation concerns possible over the next 24 hours.
As of 11Z this morning, a few lingering showers and storms were located across far southeast Kansas gradually moving out of the area. Gusty south winds on the north side of this activity have been ongoing over the past couple of hours across southeast Kansas, and it may continue over the next hour or two.
Meanwhile, brief MVFR cigs may develop later this morning across central and south-central Kansas between 14Z and 21Z.
Afterwards, VFR conditions are expected area-wide through the remainder of the TAF period. The only additional concern through the remainder of the TAF period will be the possibility of marginal LLWS across portions of central and south-central Kansas late tonight into Tuesday morning.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 626 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- A rogue/isolated severe storm possible this afternoon-evening.
- A few severe thunderstorms possible Tuesday afternoon-evening.
- Additional chances for off-and-on thunderstorms Thursday through the weekend.
- Near to above average temperatures the next several days.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 325 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024
THIS MORNING...Additional hit-or-miss showers/thunderstorms are possible across portions of central and eastern Kansas, within a zone of continued strong 850-700mb warm advection and moisture transport. Thinking these chances will gradually shift into eastern, northeast, and northern Kansas as the morning progresses, and could linger into the afternoon. Ample elevated instability in concert with modest effective deep layer shear may support dime size hail and 50 mph winds with the strongest activity.
THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING...Widespread thunderstorm development is unlikely this afternoon-evening, due to large scale height rises and associated subsidence in wake of shortwave energy. However, a remnant outflow boundary currently over Oklahoma is expected to mix northward through the day. While convergence in the vicinity of this old outflow probably won't be particularly strong, it may prove sufficient for a stray thunderstorm or two to develop. Should this happen, strong buoyancy amidst long hodographs would support supercells capable of large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two.
TONIGHT-EARLY TUESDAY...Increasing deep warm advection and moisture transport ahead of another approaching upper wave should support scattered to numerous thunderstorms across mainly Nebraska, although some of this activity could trickle into northern Kansas north of I- 70.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON-NIGHT...The potential for a few severe thunderstorms exists southeast of the KS Turnpike, as the parent western CONUS upper trough ejects onto the Great Plains, and a cold front/dryline combo sharpens across the region. The best forcing looks to remain northeast of the region, which should keep storms a bit more isolated with southwestward extent. Strong instability coupled with long hodographs will support the potential for severe storms. However, deep layer shear is oriented strongly parallel to the cold front/dryline intersection, and hodograph shape is less than ideal, which should support a mixed storm mode and/or splitting supercells (which would then result in more storm interactions and interference). This may cut into the severe potential, stay tuned.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...After a break Wednesday, model consensus supports the potential for a continued off-and-on active pattern thunderstorm-wise across the Heartland Thursday through the weekend , as another longwave trough takes shape across the western CONUS, ejecting various pieces of upper energy northeast onto Mid- America. Details on timing, amplitude, and placement of synoptic features continues to remain unclear at this time, which will have a big impact on severe weather implications. Stay tuned for later forecasts.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 621 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024
Minor aviation concerns possible over the next 24 hours.
As of 11Z this morning, a few lingering showers and storms were located across far southeast Kansas gradually moving out of the area. Gusty south winds on the north side of this activity have been ongoing over the past couple of hours across southeast Kansas, and it may continue over the next hour or two.
Meanwhile, brief MVFR cigs may develop later this morning across central and south-central Kansas between 14Z and 21Z.
Afterwards, VFR conditions are expected area-wide through the remainder of the TAF period. The only additional concern through the remainder of the TAF period will be the possibility of marginal LLWS across portions of central and south-central Kansas late tonight into Tuesday morning.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Topeka, KS,
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