Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for El Dorado, KS

DISCUSSION
Issued at 320 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025

LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT:

Our attention turns to thunderstorm potential by late Tuesday afternoon, as a relatively weak cold front approaches from the north. The greatest chances will be generally along/west of the Flint Hills. The combination of upper 50s-low 60s dewpoints in concert with surface temperatures in the upper 70s-low 80s and steep mid-level lapse rates should yield modest to strong MLCAPE values around 1500-2000 J/kg by late afternoon-early evening along/ahead of the approaching slow-moving frontal zone. There may be some capping issues to overcome, given only modest boundary layer moisture and subtle-at-best mid to upper forcing. Consequently, unsure how many storms will be able to initiate and sustain themselves, although any storms remaining alive into the evening will have the help of a strengthening low-level jet.

Effective deep layer shear of 35-40 kts in concert with the aforementioned buoyancy should be enough for a few supercells and strong multicells, capable of large hail and damaging winds. Cannot completely rule out a brief tornado, especially with any supercell that remains sustained into the evening as the low-level jet strengthens and enlarges low-level hodographs. Overall tornado threat appears low though given relatively higher LCLs.

As we head into later Tuesday night, Wednesday, and Wednesday night, convective chances and coverage become much more uncertain. Some model guidance suggests additional thunderstorm activity developing over northwest and north-central and central KS later Tuesday night into Wednesday morning ahead of a subtle ripple in the mid/upper flow, with this activity possibly laying out an outflow boundary across the area for Wednesday afternoon-night, serving as a focus for additional storm chances. As is the case during thunderstorm season, mesoscale details will play a big part in the potential for any subsequent thunderstorm chances, so it remains too early to start defining which areas will have the greatest potential for thunderstorms.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY:

An upper-level shortwave will move into the Desert Southwest by Thursday morning, traversing east into our area by Thursday afternoon/evening, keeping flow southwesterly. At 850 mb, the GFS has an axis of low level convergence developing in south central Kansas by 18z, combined with low level warm moist advection could help initiate some precipitation Thursday afternoon, although confidence isn't high based on model discrepancy. High temperatures on Thursday will be in the low to mid 70s before another front comes through, keeping highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s on Friday and Saturday. Weak ridging combined with this front may diminish precip chances on Friday and Saturday, but ripples riding the shortwave ridging increase potential for isolated showers and storms. Upper-level troughing moves into western CONUS on Saturday, returning flow to southwesterly in the Central Plains Saturday afternoon. This flow strengthens into Sunday afternoon, increasing precipitation chances Sunday and Monday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 1043 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025

A strengthening low-level jet later tonight will result in low- level speed shear over parts of central and south central KS.
This is expected to dissipate around sunrise. Otherwise, look for breezy southerly winds to persist through late Tuesday morning into the afternoon as a cold front stalls out over central KS. Behind this boundary, northeasterly winds are expected. Additionally, this boundary may become a focus for a few showers and storms late in the day on Tuesday, but confidence remains too low for specific mentions at this time.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.