El Dorado, KS Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for El Dorado, KS

April 23, 2024 3:45 AM CDT (08:45 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:41 AM   Sunset 8:14 PM
Moonrise 7:14 PM   Moonset 5:24 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near El Dorado, KS
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Area Discussion for - Wichita, KS
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FXUS63 KICT 230527 AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1227 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Low chance of storms late tonight into early Tuesday morning for portions of central and southeast Kansas.

- An active pattern with severe weather possible Thursday through Saturday.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 205 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

A progressive westerly mid/upper flow was present over the central CONUS early this afternoon while one shortwave trough was moving eastward across the Northern Plains and the mid/upper ridge axis was confined to the Southwest. Meanwhile, at the surface a weak cold front was bisecting Nebraska extending southwestward across the Central High Plains.

This frontal boundary is progged to progress south and eastward slowly tonight while being situated across Kansas early on Tue before finally progressing south and east across the area on Tuesday afternoon. A nocturnal LLJ is progged to develop from the Southern High Plains NNE into central and northeast Kansas this evening allowing low level moisture to gradually increase. We may see a few showers/isolated storms along the nose of the LLJ with higher probabilities north and east of our forecast area but some low pops were maintained. Point soundings suggest prefrontal areas in southeast KS will remain capped early on Tuesday as the frontal boundary arrives although some low pops were maintained. Normal highs for late April are around 70, so most locations will see above average values on Tue.

A stable post-frontal regime is anticipated early on Wed as the warm front is progged to be situated across central Oklahoma. Some low pops were maintained across mainly southern Kansas where some mid- lvl warm air advection is progged to linger although higher probabilities will remain further south. Seasonable temperatures will persist with highs around 70 for most locations. Precipitation chances may begin to expand northward Wed night into early Thu as the warm front begins to lift northward towards the area, especially early on Thu. The NBM pops look a bit high with such limited H85 flow beneath the influence of the mid/upper ridging across the area. Seasonable temperatures are progged to persist with highs in the lower 70s.
A round of severe storms will remain possible on Thursday as low level moisture expands northward over the area and a shortwave trough approaches late in the period. The environment appears favorable for supercell storms with the initial development along the dryline over southwest Kansas. As storms propagate eastward on Thursday night it'll be hard to rule out some severe storms across the area given the buoyancy/shear progs. Areas along and west of I-135 look best on Thursday while the moisture will be shunted eastward on Fri. This may support another round of severe storms for mainly southeast KS on Friday.

As we move into the weekend another robust mid/upper trough is progged to emerge negatively tilted from the Southern Rockies late in the period on Sat. Sfc cyclogenesis over the Central High Plains will allow low level moisture to rapidly return to the area bringing another round of severe storms to the area on Saturday. The meridional nature of the upper jet and orientation of the deeper layer shear vectors in relationship to the dryline orientation may support more linear structures on Sat-Sat night. Some modest pops were maintained across the area on Sunday as the mid/upper trough moves over the area and the deformation zone wraps into central KS later in the day. Temperatures are progged to remain mild in it's wake with highs in the 70s persisting across the area on Sunday. Dry and mild weather conditions are expected early in the week as mid/upper ridging is progged to return to the central CONUS

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Main aviation concern will be a wind shift to move through today.

Currently have a cold front extending from central IA into northwest KS. This feature is expected to continue pushing southeast today and will flip winds around to the north behind it. It is expected to move through KRSL-KGBD in the 13-15z time frame and KICT-KHUT in the 15-17z time frame. Right behind the front there will be a brief period of wind gusts around 40 mph, which will only last a couple hours before decreasing.
Confidence remains high that VFR conditions will remain in place through the next 24 hours.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 205 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Gusty southwest winds and relatively dry air will support very high grassland fire danger across portions of central and south central Kansas through early this evening.

On Friday, a dryline will usher in much drier air and breezy southwest winds into portions of central and south central Kansas resulting in a very high grassland fire danger.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.




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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KEQA EL DORADO/CAPTAIN JACK THOMAS MEMORIAL,KS 7 sm10 minS 17G2110 smClear59°F43°F55%29.80
KAAO COLONEL JAMES JABARA,KS 24 sm51 minS 1810 smClear57°F45°F63%29.81
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Wichita, KS,



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