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FXUS63 KICT 061751 AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1151 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2023

Updated Aviation Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

* Warmer than normal daytime highs for today and Thursday with values approaching possible record highs across central Kansas on Thursday

* A upper level wave looks to bring chances of drizzle and rain showers/storms to eastern Kansas Friday-Saturday morning, with a rain/snow mix possible over Central Kansas on Friday night- Saturday morning

DISCUSSION
Issued at 221 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2023

Today-Fri

Surface low pressure will deepen in eastern Colorado for today into Thursday with a tightening surface pressure gradient over central and eastern Kansas. This is in response to a upper level wave currently approaching northwestern states today, then migrating east across the Rockies and deepening the upper trough axis over the central plains come Friday. This will cause south/southwest winds to increase for today and especially on Thursday along with warmer than normal temperatures. Thursday daytime highs will be the warmest of the week and with ECMWF EFI index TMax values running at (0.6- 0.7),thus favoring possible daytime record highs in central Kansas(see Climate section below). The upper trough will then continue to deepen as it approaches the central plains for Friday.
Model signals show strong low level isentropic lift of increasing moisture which could generate drizzle over eastern Kansas on Friday morning/afternoon. The isentropic lift/moisture advection will deepen for late Friday afternoon/night ahead of the upper trough over eastern Kansas which could spark off scattered rain showers/thunderstorms. Meanwhile a strong cold front will surge southward for Friday night and the colder air could cause a rain to snow transition over central Kansas. The fleet-footed speed of the upper trough by the models would favor lower probabilities of snow accumulation.

Sat-Tue

Lingering rain/snow is possible Saturday morning followed by dry weather conditions for Saturday afternoon-Monday as upper level northwest flow regime sets up across the central plains in the wake of Saturday morning system. A cold and windy day will be in store for Kansas on Saturday with any precipitation quickly shifting east.
Temperatures will moderate for Sunday and Monday with daytime highs closer to normal expected. Heading into Tuesday Models differ on the evolution/location of the next weather system for this period, therefore confidence is low at this time.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 1150 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2023

VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours at all central, south-central, and southeast Kansas airfields. Stout/gusty south winds will diminish some by evening and persist overnight, although will increase once again by mid-late morning Thursday, as low pressure strengthens over the Northern Plains. A stout low-level jet around 50-55 kts may support some low-level wind shear within 1500 ft AGL across eastern Kansas overnight into early Thursday. After looking at things a bit closer, we may amend the 18z TAFs to include this low-level wind shear.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 221 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2023

The combination of warm temperatures, dry air, and strong southwest winds will give way to very high grassland fire danger for much of the area Thursday afternoon.

CLIMATE
Issued at 221 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2023

Here are the record highs that may be in jeopardy on Thursday December 7th:

Location Record High Forecast High

Russell 65 in 1959 66 Salina 68 in 1933 67

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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