Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for El Dorado, KS

DISCUSSION
Issued at 322 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025

Zonal upper-level flow will return to the forecast area today as the storm system that brought rain to the region this weekend lifts across Wisconsin. With saturated soils some patchy fog is possible where winds remain light this morning, but will quickly dissipate a few hours after sunrise. Mostly sunny skies and southerly winds around 10-20 mph are expected today, which will help to warm temperatures into the upper 70s across central Kansas to the lower 70s across southeast Kansas.

Upper-level flow will remain nearly zonal through the work week but become slightly more southwesterly Tuesday through Thursday. This will open the gates for several impulses to cross the Plains through the week leading to additional shower and thunderstorm chances. Most of the daylight hours on Tuesday will be dry as a weak cold front settles across Kansas through the day. Ahead of this front temperatures will warm into the upper 70s area wide. This front will serve as a forcing mechanism for shower and thunderstorm development during the evening hours across portions of central and south central Kansas as a weak shortwave moves overhead. Surface based CAPE will be around 1500 J/kg along the front and while deep layer flow isn't overly strong, veering with height combined with the modest increase in speed will still lead to effective bulk shear values around 35 kts with nearly straight hodographs. This would be supportive for a few supercells to develop along the front and gradually move eastward during the evening hours. With increasing CIN away from the front and the loss of daytime heating it remains uncertain how far east this activity will be able to spread before dissipating. The main threat with any storm that develops would be large hail and damaging winds.

Confidence in precipitation chances diminish after Tuesday as the mesoscale details from the previous days convection will play a large role in the following days convective potential. But with southwesterly flow persisting through Thursday and the potential for remnant boundaries to remain over the area, shower and thunderstorm chances will remain possible each day through Thursday. Temperatures won't vary much either on Wednesday and Thursday with high temperatures in the low to mid 70s. Another front is expected to move through the forecast area Thursday which should help to bump temperatures down slightly Friday and Saturday into the upper 60s to lower 70s. This front combined with weak ridging moving over the forecast area may diminish precipitation chances on Friday and Saturday but confidence on the timing of the front and how far south this front will move remains low at this time hence at least a slight chance of precipitation remains in the forecast for both days. Upper-level flow will become southwesterly once again late Saturday as troughing moves into the western CONUS which should lead to an uptick in the potential for showers and thunderstorms Sunday and into next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 618 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025

With clear skies and light winds this morning patchy fog has developed across portions of south central and central Kansas.
This fog is fairly shallow in nature but visibilities at the airport sensors may drop into the MVFR to IFR range through 14z this morning. After the fog dissipates VFR conditions can be expected at all terminals through the remainder of this TAF period. Winds will gradually increase from the south today with breezy conditions expected this afternoon and evening across central and south central Kansas.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.