El Dorado, KS Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for El Dorado, KS


November 29, 2023 6:42 AM CST (12:42 UTC)
Sunrise 7:22AM   Sunset 5:12PM   Moonrise  6:59PM   Moonset 9:54AM 

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near El Dorado, KS
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Area Discussion for - Wichita, KS
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FXUS63 KICT 291125 AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 525 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023

Updated Aviation Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

* Fog potential late tonight through Thursday morning.

* Meaningful rainfall likely over generally the southeast half of Kansas late Thursday through early Friday.

* Potential for wet/slushy snow accumulations Thursday night through early Friday, generally along and northwest of a line extending from Hutchinson to Marion, although a major winter event is not expected at this time.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 334 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023

The primary forecast challenge will be weather associated with a potent shortwave ejecting east-northeast across Mid-America Thursday through early Friday.

Late tonight into Thursday morning, increased low-level moisture advection northward into snow-covered areas (or recently snow covered areas) should lead to some fog formation. The greatest potential for dense fog will be in the vicinity of a stalling cold front, mainly along and either side of the Highways 50 and 56 corridors, where the moisture meets the cooler air, and where winds are decoupled. Given the setup, this fog could linger into the afternoon.

As the low-levels continue to moisten in the absence of mid-level moisture, thinking we should see areas of drizzle gradually develop from south to north through Thursday morning and into the afternoon.
By mid-late afternoon, as large scale ascent continues approaching from the southwest, areas of rain and perhaps a few embedded thunderstorms will begin spreading north into southern Kansas, and continue spreading north-northeast across most of the forecast area through Thursday night, before exiting northeast Friday. Strong forcing coupled with above normal precipitable waters along with weak instability should lead to widespread rainfall amounts around or greater than 0.50 inches generally along and southeast of a line extending from Pratt to Hutchinson to Hillsboro to Topeka. Per the GFS ensemble mean, localized amounts around one inch are possible over mainly southern and southeast Kansas. Amounts are expected to drop off significantly further northwest, with roughly Russell or Ellis counties likely being the northwest extent of precipitation.

The other facet of this system is the potential for wet/slushy snow accumulations, generally along and northwest of a line extending from Hutchinson to Marion. Snow probabilities jumped a decent amount on the latest 00z guidance (namely the NAM, and Canadian/ECMWF deterministic and ensemble means), which makes us hesitate to change the forecast too much given the big change. It will all depend on how far north-northwest the precipitation shield will reach, and how far south-southeast the colder and drier air will reach associated with the stalling cold front. Thinking the NAM and Canadian are probably overdoing wet-bulb cooling and associated accumulations, but still think there is potential for up to around one inch wet/slushy accumulations. Needless to say, there remains some uncertainty, and subsequent forecasts may change, so please stay tuned.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 524 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023

Quiet VFR conditions will prevail through much of the next 24 hours. However, IFR or lower conditions in the form of fog and low clouds are expected to gradually spread north across the region late tonight, and especially Thursday morning, as low- level moisture advects north over snow-covered areas and recently snow-covered areas. Hinted at this IFR and lower potential at ICT, HUT, and SLN by 11z Thursday.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.


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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KAAO COLONEL JAMES JABARA,KS 24 sm48 minWNW 0610 smClear32°F25°F74%30.08

Wind History from AAO
(wind in knots)



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Wichita, KS,



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