Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Atlantic, VA

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 320 AM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Dry and cold today with highs only the low to mid 40s despite mostly sunny skies.

Broad 1030mb high pressure over the SE CONUS stretches NE into the Mid-Atlantic early this morning. Clear skies and calm winds resulting in excellent radiational cooling across the region with many rural sites registering temps in the teens as of 2AM. Most spots will bottom out in the mid to upper teens by sunrise with 20s expected for the Eastern Shore and immediate coastal areas.

Continued cold today with highs only a degree or two higher than we saw yesterday...generally in the mid 40s with low 40s for the Eastern Shore. Mostly sunny skies today will give way to a few more clouds across the northern third of the area as a clipper low traverses the Great Lakes region into New England. Not as cold tonight with winds becoming SW 5-10 mph after sunset. Lows generally in the upper 20s to low 30s (highest N where more clouds will persist).

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 320 AM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Warmer but staying dry Sunday.

- Generally light rainfall is expected across the region on Monday.

High temps rise into the upper 50s to low 60s on Sunday with sunny skies, favorable W/SW winds, and rising heights aloft. Went a few degrees above the deterministic guidance as a result. Milder overnight as well as low level moisture increases across the region and clouds thicken from west to east by sunrise. Low temps generally in the mid 30s to low 40s. A few showers are possible across the Piedmont prior to sunrise but not expecting more than a trace to perhaps a few hundredths of an inch of precip.

Mostly cloudy Monday with rainfall moving into the region through the morning hours. Highest PoPs remain focused across the west and north with relative lower chances across SE VA and NE NC. QPF ranges from ~0.2" in the Piedmont to 0.1" or less for the remainder of the area. Clouds and showers will keep temperatures mostly in the 50s to around 60 for VA Beach southward into NE NC. Rain chances decrease for most of the area Monday night but chance PoPs linger across the south overnight. Lows will fall into the 40s for most locations with upper 40s and low 50s across the southern third of the area where clouds will be thicker.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 320 AM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Showers linger into Tuesday as flow aloft becomes southwesterly.

- A cold front approaches the region Tuesday night with widespread rainfall expected across the region.

- Colder/drier air filters into the area behind the cold front with dry conditions expected for the second half of the week.

00z guidance remains in excellent agreement with respect to the timing and placement of low pressure and the associated cold frontal passage. Confidence has increased enough to advertise categorical PoPs across the region Tuesday night into early Wednesday ahead of the surface front. Probabilistic guidance continues to show increasing potential for beneficial rainfall with this event. Area average QPF ranges from 0.75-1.50" across the region. 00z guidance suite has sped up the frontal progression by a few hours with the boundary expected to come through Wednesday and be offshore by the evening hours. Breezy through the afternoon, especially near the water. Gusts generally 15-20 mph inland and 20-30 mph near the coast. High temps will depend on the timing of the front with many areas across the west and north seeing their daily high temps in the morning before much cooler and drier air moves in during the afternoon. A few wet snow flakes could mix in across the our NW Piedmont counties as precip departs but not expecting any travel issues as 'cold air chasing the precip' setups rarely result in any impacts. Lingering precip should move offshore Wednesday evening with skies clearing from west to east overnight. Lows tumble back into the 20s behind the front with wind chills in the upper teens to low 20s prior to sunrise.

Cold and dry Thursday with high temps in the low/mid 40s and overnight lows in the low 20s inland with mid and upper 20s closer to the coast. A bit "warmer" Friday and Friday night with highs in the highs in the 40s to low 50s and lows mid 20s to low 30s.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 640 AM EST Saturday...

VFR, clear skies, and light winds this morning as high pressure settles over of the area. Winds become W/SW 5-10 kt after 12-14z then SW closer to 10 kt after 00z as the pressure gradient tightens a bit in response to low pressure translating east across the Great Lakes. Skies average sunny or mostly sunny during the afternoon hours. There will be an increase in high clouds late in the period, especially at SBY, closer to the clipper low's influence.

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected through the weekend. Rain chances Mon through Wed could result in some periodic flight restrictions as moisture levels increase across the area.

MARINE
As of 230 AM EST Saturday...

Key messages:

-SCAs have been issued for the Chesapeake Bay, VA/MD coastal waters, and Lower James River from late this evening-midday Sunday as SW winds will increase to 15-25 knots.

-Sub-SCA conditions return from Sunday night-Tuesday night.

-A frontal system will bring another round of SCAs from Wednesday through Thursday. A brief period of low-end gale force gusts cannot be ruled out Wednesday evening-Wednesday night.

Conditions are much improved from yesterday as high pressure is now centered just to the southwest of the local area. NW winds are averaging 10-15 kt at this hour with 2-3 ft seas/1-2 ft waves. Sub- SCA conditions are expected during the day today as winds become W then SW (and continue to average 10-15 kt). Then, the high becomes suppressed to our south tonight into Sunday as a clipper system tracks well to our north. In response, the pressure gradient will tighten over the waters allowing SW winds to increase to 15-25 kt tonight (highest over the northern coastal waters and lowest over NC). Gusts to 25-30 kt are likely across most of the marine area.
The elevated winds continue through midday Sunday before diminishing to 10-15 kt by Sunday evening. As such, have issued SCAs for the Ches Bay, VA/MD coastal waters, and Lower James River from 03z/10 PM tonight through 18z/1 PM Sunday. Will leave the upper rivers, NC coastal waters, and Currituck Sound out of the SCAs for now...but will allow later shifts to evaluate trends. Seas will build to 4-6 ft N/3-5 ft S with waves of 2-4 ft expected. Breezy, but sub-SCA southerly winds are expected on Mon/Tue as the high moves offshore.
Seas will generally be 2-3 ft with 1-3 ft waves from Mon-Tue.

A seasonably strong cold front is progged to cross the waters late Wed into the first part of Wed night. S-SW winds once again increase to 15-25 kt (with gusts as high as 25-30 kt) on Wed ahead of the front. There will be an abrupt wind shift to the NW following the FROPA. At least solid SCA conditions (NW winds around 25 kt with gusts to 30-35 kt) are expected for several hours following the FROPA. A period of low-end gale force gusts appears possible Wed evening/Wed night. Winds diminish during the day on Thu with sub-SCA conditions expected Thu night-Fri.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Sunday for ANZ630>632-634-638-650-652-654-656.