Atlantic, VA Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Atlantic, VA

June 20, 2024 2:19 AM EDT (06:19 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:37 AM   Sunset 8:30 PM
Moonrise 6:40 PM   Moonset 3:00 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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ANZ652 Coastal Waters From Chincoteague To Parramore Island Va Out 20 Nm- 1259 Am Edt Thu Jun 20 2024

Rest of tonight - SE winds 5 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 8 seconds.

Thu - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 9 seconds.

Thu night - S winds 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 8 seconds.

Fri - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 3 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 9 seconds.

Fri night - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 8 seconds.

Sat - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 8 seconds and S 2 ft at 4 seconds.

Sat night - S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft.

Sun - S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft, occasionally to 6 ft.

Sun night - S winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft, occasionally to 8 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.

Mon - SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft, occasionally to 6 ft. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon.

Mon night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

ANZ600 1259 Am Edt Thu Jun 20 2024

Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
high pressure remains offshore this week with generally benign marine conditions. Increased southerly flow is expected Saturday and especially Sunday as low pressure passes well north of the area. NExt rain chances don't look to come until early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Atlantic, VA
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Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 200601 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 201 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure off the northern Mid Atlantic coast slowly shifts south through the end of the week. A seasonably warm and dry pattern will continue through Friday, before an extended period of hot weather commences this weekend and continues into next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 200 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Message:

- Seasonably warm temperatures are expected today.

~1030mb sfc high pressure is centered well offshore of the Mid- Atlantic coast early this morning with a 598dm upper high from nrn MD to NJ. It's actually quite comfortable now with temps mostly in the 60s, although it will get very hot in a few days.
The ridge axis at the sfc and aloft will continue to gradually shift south today and tonight and will be over srn VA and NC by late tonight. The flow will still be onshore (SE) today leading to temps only a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday.
Forecast highs are in the lower 90s inland with 80s near the immediate coast. Temps should drop off into the 60s tonight with the ridge axis still nearby.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 310 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Turning warmer and a little more humid for Friday.

- Turning hot on Saturday.

The heat will start to build on Friday as the sfc and upper ridge axis shift to our south, leading to the warmer 850mb temps currently over the Ohio Valley to move over the middle Atlantic. Winds become more southerly across inland areas on Friday, while remaining SSE near the immediate coast. Forecast highs are in the mid 90s in central VA with upper 80s-lower 90s closer to the coast and in NE NC. Dew points will be a little bit higher on Fri (mid 60s) but max heat indices should remain a few degrees below 100F.

By Saturday, temperatures will really start to heat up and dew pts will be on the rise as well. Statistical guidance is supporting high temperatures in the mid-upper 90s to even 100 degrees across inland areas for Sat afternoon (high confidence), with low-mid 90s near the coast and upper 80s to 90 degrees at the beaches. When factoring in dew pts in the mid 60s inland to around 70 coast, this gives heat index values in the low 100s.
Although these values will fall short of Heat Advisory criteria (105+ deg), it will still set the stage for a hot weekend overall and a heat wave that lasts through next week. No rain is expected through the short term period either.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 310 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Dangerous heat index values of 105F or greater on Sunday.

- A weakening frontal system may bring isolated to widely scattered showers or storms on Sun night into Tuesday, but the confidence in widespread rainfall remains low.

-Flash Drought conditions developing.

The main story this weekend will be the heat as the ridge axis becomes more suppressed to our south and the low-level flow becomes SSW area-wide, which will lead to even warmer 850mb temps/low-level thicknesses. Sunday looks to be the hottest day of the period with forecast highs around 100F across central VA with mid-upper 90s near the coast. While the recent dry weather will help to keep dew pts a bit lower than they could be (mid 60s-lower 70s), heat index values of 105F+ are likely on Sunday. These conditions will likely warrant a Heat Advisory for much of the area on Sunday. Other than a chance for isolated to widely scattered tstms Sun evening-Sun night, the dry wx will continue.
Confidence for temps on Monday is lower than the weekend due to the potential for scattered tstms (mainly during the latter part of the day) and more clouds as a weakening frontal system approaches. Highs Monday will most likely be a few degrees lower than they will be on Sunday. Still seasonably hot with lower precip chances on Tuesday as the weakening front washes out near/over the area.

Regardless of any tstm chances in the forecast, it still does not look promising for widespread rainfall, as many places will see little to no rain through the period. In fact, 13z NBM probabilities for at least 0.50" of total rainfall from Sun-Tue are only 10-40% over the local area. This will only exacerbate the recent dry conditions and set us up for what can be considered a "flash drought". More information on this can be found on CPC's Probabilistic Hazards Outlook page at www.ncep.cpc.noaa.gov or drought.gov.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 200 AM EDT Thursday...

Primarily VFR conditions will continue for the next 24 hours.
Patchy fog may try to develop early this morning at primarily SBY and potentially PHF, but this should result in minimal (if any) operational impacts. Any fog that develops will dissipate by 11-12z. Similar conditions today compared to yesterday with FEW-SCT cumulus developing by the late morning.
Winds will primarily be out of the SE, ranging from 5 to 10 knots.

Outlook: Dry and VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Sunday as high pressure remains centered off the coast.

MARINE
As of 300 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Benign marine conditions expected through most of this week. A few gusts to 20 kt will be possible in the afternoon/evening hours this week.

- Moderate rip current risk at all areas beaches.

- Seas and winds become elevated later Sunday and Monday as a trough swings through.

Winds are east/southeasterly around 8-12kt early this afternoon. As is typical with the summer pattern we are experiencing right now with high pressure situated over the region, there could be some slight enhancement to wind speeds during the afternoon hours. Gusts to 20kt will be possible, especially in the lower Bay and along area rivers where evening sea breezes become more established. Seas are 2- 3ft with waves in the Bay of 1-2ft, though there could be spots in the lower Bay of 2-3ft when the winds pick up in the afternoon.

Winds are expected to become more southerly Friday and into Saturday as the high pressure slides further south. The southerly flow becomes more robust later Saturday and Sunday as a trough approaches from the west and drops through the local area on Monday. Small Craft Advisories may be needed during this timeframe, especially later Sunday into early Monday if the current trends persist. Seas will also increase to 3-4ft across the southern waters on Sunday with northern coastal waters building to 4-6ft. Waves in the Bay will increase to 2-3ft as well. These elevated seas and waves look to gradually subside later Monday and return to 2-3ft by Tuesday.
Our first rain/storm chances may come Sunday afternoon into Monday as the trough swings through, though activity looks to be scattered as of now.

Rip current risk is moderate at all beaches today with SE swell energy and 2-3 ft nearshore waves. Periods increase to around 8 sec Thursday with waves at the beaches remaining around 3 ft, suggesting a continuing moderate rip risk. An elevated rip risk likely continues through the upcoming weekend (highest threat across the north).

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
44089 13 mi53 min 75°F3 ft
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 21 mi49 minSE 1.9G4.1 74°F 82°F30.32
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 36 mi49 minSSE 6G8 30.36
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 37 mi49 minS 8.9G9.9 76°F 80°F30.33
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 38 mi49 min0G0 70°F 68°F30.29
44042 - Potomac, MD 46 mi43 minSSE 7.8G9.7 73°F 78°F1 ft
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 46 mi49 minSSE 5.8G7.8 74°F 78°F1 ft


Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KWAL WALLOPS FLIGHT FACILITY,VA 4 sm25 mincalm7 smClear70°F66°F88%30.33
KMFV ACCOMACK COUNTY,VA 21 sm24 mincalm7 smClear30.33
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Wind History graph: WAL
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Tide / Current for Bogues Bay, Chincoteague Inlet, Virginia
   
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Bogues Bay, Chincoteague Inlet, Virginia, Tide feet


Tide / Current for Assateague Beach, Toms Cove, Virginia
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Assateague Beach, Toms Cove, Virginia, Tide feet


Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic   
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Dover AFB, DE,




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