NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 230 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Message:

- Cool and dry today.

- Near record low temperatures possible Monday morning for some locations.

Aloft, an anomalously strong trough was located over the eastern CONUS this morning with high pressure building in from the W at the surface. Temps as of 1 AM ranged from the lower 50s NW to the mid- upper 60s SE with most inland areas in the mid-upper 50s. Skies continue to clear behind the cold front as cooler, drier air filters in. Winds remain 5-10 mph early this morning across E portions of the FA with lighter winds across the Piedmont. As such, while temps will cool, full decoupling is unlikely for most. The exception is the Piedmont where winds are more likely to become calm. Expect morning lows in the upper 40s NW, lower 50s inland, mid 50s E of I- 95, and lower 60s along the coast. Additionally, there may be small patches of fog in the Piedmont (where temps cool to the dew point).
Any fog dissipates quickly after sunrise. With cool high pressure building in from the W today, expect clear skies, cool temps, and low humidity. Highs this afternoon only in the low-mid 70s with afternoon dew points in the low-mid 40s for most. Locally higher dew points in the 50s are possible near the coast in far SE VA/NE NC along with a few bay streamer clouds.

With high pressure over the area tonight, cool temps aloft, and calm winds at the sfc, expect efficient radiational cooling. As such, expect morning lows on Mon morning in the mid-upper 40s inland, around 50F at Richmond, and mid-upper 50s along the coast. Parts of the NW Piedmont (greatest chance in Louisa) may even reach the lower 40s! In fact, daily record lows may be threatened at a few of our climate sites (mainly SBY/ECG). See climate section below for more information.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
As of 230 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Cool Monday with near record low temperatures possible for some locations.

-Mild weather returns Tuesday.

Aloft, an anomalously strong trough across the eastern CONUS gradually moves E Mon with the eastern portion of a ridge building in by Tue. At the sfc, a strong area of high pressure remains over the area. After very cool (near record lows possible for some locations) temps early Mon morning, expect temps to warm up 30-35 degrees by Mon afternoon with highs in the upper 70s to around 80F under clear skies. Mon night/Sun morning will be cool, but not as cool as Mon morning with temps in the lower 50s inland, upper 40s across the Piedmont, and upper 50s to around 60F along the coast.
With the ridge nudging in Tue, expect temps to be warmer with highs in the mid 80s for most under clear skies. Lows Tue night in the mid 50s inland, upper 50s for urban areas, and lower 60s along the coast.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 230 AM EDT Sunday...

Key messages:

- Dry weather continues through at least late week.

- Unsettled weather may return by next weekend.

Aloft, a tall ridge builds across the Midwest into Canada through the week before moving E next weekend. At the surface, high pressure continues to dominate the local weather pattern through late week before gradually lifting NE from late week into the weekend.
Meanwhile, a tropical disturbance over the Bay of Campeche moves N across the western Gulf of Mexico through mid week. Ensemble guidance suggests this system continues to lift NE into the MS Valley by late week with some guidance suggesting another weak area of low pressure may develop off the Southeast coast this weekend.
The area in the gulf will need to be closely monitored in the coming days as it's strength and track will have an impact with respect to rain chances for the local area. Model guidance varies with how far the moisture makes it E (overrunning the high pressure ridging into the local area). The GFS/CMC keep most of the rain W of the local area through the weekend with the EURO farther E. For now, kept NBM PoPs which have a slight chance for a few showers across S portions of the FA on Fri with PoPs spreading farther inland Sat into Sun (15- 30% PoPs). Otherwise, dry and seasonal through late week with highs in the low-mid 80s through next weekend.

AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 115 AM EDT Sunday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 06z taf period. Cooler, drier air continues to filter in behind the cold front with clearing skies. Some SCT stratocu remains across far SE VA/NE NC early this morning. However, expect these clouds to continue to clear from N to S over the next few hours (apart from a few bay streamers near ORF). ECG/ORF may hold on to some occasional cloud cover (FEW- SCT) into the early afternoon with SKC conditions expected at all other terminals. Winds were N 5-10 kt early this morning (apart from 10-15 kt at ORF/ECG). A brief uptick in winds is possible early this morning with winds diminishing to 5-10 kt by this afternoon. Winds become calm overnight as high pressure builds in.

Outlook: VFR conditions continue into early next week as high pressure builds into the region.

MARINE
As of 900 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Northerly winds remain 15-25 kt tonight behind a cold front.
Small Craft Advisories are in effect through at least Sunday morning for all area waters.

- More benign marine conditions return early next week.

- There is a high risk for rip currents across southern beaches Sunday, with a moderate risk for northern beaches.

Well-advertised cold front has pushed through the area this evening, with the latest radar and observational data as of 845 PM indicating the front resides S and SE of the Albemarle Sound. Northerly winds picked up substantially along the front to 20-30 kt with a few gusts up to 35 kt. Winds have backed off a few knots, but are still solidly within SCA-levels (15-25 kt with gusts 25-30 kt). Winds likely remain elevated with similar gusts through the overnight hours as additional dry and cool air pushes across the waters. Highest winds will be in the lower bay and coastal waters S of Cape Charles Light. NNW winds quickly diminish Sunday morning as high pressure slides in over the area. By early afternoon, winds will be down to 10-15kt, then 5- 10kt by the early evening. High pressure remains in control through much of the week. Winds will generally be 5-10kt and of varying direction as high pressure repositions itself.

Seas have increased in the post-frontal regime, with 3-4 ft S and 4-6 ft N. Waves in the bay have also increased to 2-4 ft (highest southern bay). Seas are forecast to increase further through the night given the elevated winds and fetch, especially S of Parramore Island. With the wind direction turning more offshore, seas should fall back fairly quickly once winds drop off. Will be ~4ft by mid afternoon tomorrow, then ~3ft by Monday morning. Through the rest of the week, seas will be 2-3ft.

Regarding rip currents for Sunday...have maintained a moderate rip risk across northern beaches, but have introduced a high risk for southern beaches with this evening update. This is due to nearshore waves remaining 3-5 ft through at least the first part of the day and a favorable 70-90 degree swell direction.
The threat may drop off some later in the afternoon and evening as winds lighten and seas gradually drop off.

CLIMATE
Record Low Temps:

9/9 RIC 47/1986 ORF 53/1951 SBY 47/1986 ECG 52/1951

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ630>633.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ634- 650-652.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for ANZ635>638.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ654- 656.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ658.