Saturday, July20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Atlantic, VA

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Sunrise 5:53AMSunset 8:24PM Saturday July 20, 2019 3:44 AM EDT (07:44 UTC) Moonrise 9:51PMMoonset 8:14AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ652 Coastal Waters From Chincoteague To Parramore Island Va Out 20 Nm- 334 Am Edt Sat Jul 20 2019
Through 7 am..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Mainly se swell with a dominant period of 10 seconds.
Today..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt late. Seas 2 to 3 ft with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Sun..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Mainly S swell with a dominant period of 7 seconds.
Sun night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft with a dominant period of 6 seconds.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Mon night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Tue..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Showers likely. A chance of tstms in the morning, then tstms likely in the afternoon.
Tue night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, subsiding to 2 ft after midnight. Showers and tstms likely, mainly in the evening.
Wed..NE winds 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.
Wed night..E winds 5 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ600 334 Am Edt Sat Jul 20 2019
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure remains off the southeast coast through Monday. A cold front crosses the area late Monday night through Tuesday ending the current heat wave.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Atlantic, VA
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location: 37.88, -75.5     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 200709
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
309 am edt Sat jul 20 2019

Synopsis
High pressure remains off the southeast coast through Monday. A
cold front crosses the area Monday night, ending the current
heat wave by Tuesday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 245 am edt Saturday...

heatwave rolls on today. Strong ridge aloft remains in control
invof the fa limiting any significant clouds and putting a cap
on convective potential. The challenging part of the forecast is
the dew point which models using have difficult time resolving.

Mixing will remain limited again today... Though some guidance
does suggest that dew points... ESP W of I 95 do lower a bit this
afternoon around peak heating which would limit hi to blo 110
degs f. Otw... Expecting hi to top out between 110-115 deg f as
high temperatures reach 95-100f. Keeping excessive heat warning
for all areas today (ongoing over the se... Starting at 15z 20
elsewhere). One or two stray tstms may pop later today... Some
near term hi res guidance does suggest the potential for that n
and NW of ric and along the ssw rim of the fa after 21z 20.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Monday
As of 305 am edt Saturday...

ridge aloft remains strong enough through Sun to keep the heat
going and limit any convective potential. After another
very warm humid night tonight (hi likely doesn't fall blo 85f in
many urban areas)... Very hot humid conditions expected again
sun. There is the hint of a weak trough just W of the fa (over
the higher terrain) Sun afternoon evening which may be enough
for isold-sct tstms there. Elsewhere... Pops to remain blo 15%.

Heat warning headline will remain up tonight through Sun evening
all areas.

Still very warm humid Sun night. Pops mainly AOB 15%. Ridge
aloft breaks down Mon and a cold front approaches from the nw.

Another hot day... Though the heat will likely be trimmed over
nw portions. Highs NW in the l90s... While another day of m-u90s
likely central and e. A heat advisory will likely be needed e
and SE portions though there will likely a bit of SW (to 15
mph) which may help mix out lower dew points at least a little
bit. Pops increase to 30-50% NW and 15-25% SE by late mon
afternoon evening... Though some of the model guidance is now
about 6 hours slower W the arrival of the cold front's
influence.

Long term Monday night through Friday
As of 330 pm edt Friday...

guidance continues to suggest a fairly abrupt cool down by Tuesday
as a long wave trough sets up across the eastern half of the
country. At the surface, low pressure is progged to track from pa to
the canadian maritimes. Guidance has trended slightly slower W the
passage of the associated cold front... It is now forecast to
approach the region Monday night before slowly crossing the area
(from nw-se) on tue. TSTM chances increase from NW to SE Mon night-
tue as the front slowly crosses the region. The best chc of tstms
mon night will be across the NRN half of the cwa. As the front
approaches SE va NE nc Tue aftn, expect re-development of
showers tstms (as pcpn chances diminish across northern western
zones). Guidance is in very good agreement with respect to numerous
shower TSTM coverage Tue aftn-evening across the se. Have likely
pops across the north Mon night with chc pops across the south. Have
gone with pops of ~70% across the SE Tue aftn-evening. The best
chc for stronger storms looks to be across SE va NE nc Tue aftn
where the FROPA coincides W peak heating.

The front finally moves just SE of the CWA on Tue before slowly
pushing well S of the area by Thursday. Deep-layer moisture will be
slow to exit coastal SE va NE nc under moist ssw flow aloft.

Therefore, will maintain chc pops through late Wed across far se
zones. Drier by late next week as high pressure tries to build in
from the north. Still cannot rule out an isolated aftn-evening
shower TSTM (especially s) through fri. Highs generally dropping
back to the low-mid 80s for Tue and wed, then mid-upper 80s thu-fri
with more sunshine. Morning lows will mainly be in the upper 60s-mid
70s on Tue before dropping into the 60s in most areas from wed-fri
(with forecast lows in the low 70s along the immediate coast of se
va NE nc).

Aviation 07z Saturday through Wednesday
As of 225 am edt Saturday...

vfr conditions expected through the 06z TAF forecast period.

Few-sct CU again midday afternoon W mainly ssw winds blo 10
kt. An isold TSTM can't be ruled out in the aftn early evening
but bulk of any convection expected to stay S and W of the local
area. Upper level ridge slowly breaks down late sun-mon... Allowing
for a bit better coverage of late day eve convection (by mon
afternoon - as cold front approaches and drops across the fa.

High prob for shras tstms Mon night into Tue as that front is
slow to push to the E and s.

Marine
As of 330 pm edt Friday...

strong high pressure at the surface and aloft over the southwestern
atlantic is leading to continued south and southwesterly large scale
flow over the eastern conus. Local winds are somewhat variable near
the coast due to afternoon sea breeze circulations but are generally
5-10 knots. Waves are around 1 ft in the bay with seas offshore 2-3
ft.

Winds become ssw and increase slightly tonight to ~10 knots in the
bay and offshore waters. Southwesterly winds 5-10 knots will
continue through the remainder of the weekend as high pressure
remains anchored off the southeast coast. Some nocturnal enhancement
in wind speeds to 10-15 knots each night through Monday morning.

Large scale ridging will begin to break down on Monday as a surface
trough precedes an upper level disturbance across the great lakes.

Southwesterly flow will increase as the pressure gradient begins to
tighten on Monday afternoon, generally 10-15 knots across both the
bay and offshore waters. Waves will build to around 2 ft while seas
increase to 2-4 ft S and 3-4 ft N in sustained southwesterly flow.

19.12z global models have trended slower regarding the expected
frontal passage with the boundary now not clearing the area until
sometime early Tuesday afternoon. A period of showers and storms
(some of which may quite strong) will precede this front. North and
northeast flow, generally AOB 10 knots, will follow the frontal
passage for the mid to late week period.

Climate
Best chance for breaking records with this heatwave will be
record high mins as the airmass is very humid. Record highs and
record high mins are listed below:
* richmond: record high record high min
* Sat (7 20): 103 1930 78 2013
* Sun (7 21): 104 1930 77 1930
* Mon (7 22): 103 1952 79 2011
* norfolk: record high record high min
* Sat (7 20): 102 1942 79 1977
* Sun (7 21): 101 1926 80 1983
* Mon (7 22): 102 2011 82 2011
* salisbury: record high record high min
* Sat (7 20): 104 1930 83 2013
* Sun (7 21): 106 1930 77 2017
* Mon (7 22): 104 1930 80 2011
* eliz city: record high record high min
* Sat (7 20) 104 1942 78 2012
* Sun (7 21) 102 1987 79 1983
* Mon (7 22) 104 1952 79 2011

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... Excessive heat warning from 11 am this morning to 11 pm edt
Sunday for mdz021>025.

Nc... Excessive heat warning until 11 pm edt Sunday for ncz012>017-
030>032-102.

Va... Excessive heat warning from 11 am this morning to 11 pm edt
Sunday for vaz048-060>062-064>069-075>080-099-100-509>517-
519-521-522.

Excessive heat warning until 11 pm edt Sunday for vaz081>090-
092-093-095>098-518-520-523>525.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Mpr
near term... Alb
short term... Alb
long term... Eri
aviation... Alb
marine... Rhr
climate... Alb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44089 12 mi44 min 78°F2 ft
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 21 mi56 min WSW 4.1 G 5.1 83°F 87°F1012.9 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 36 mi56 min 1014 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 37 mi62 min SW 11 G 14 86°F 88°F1012.9 hPa
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 38 mi62 min WSW 5.1 G 5.1 78°F 67°F1013.3 hPa
OCSM2 39 mi164 min 2 ft

Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wallops Flight Facility Airport, VA4 mi50 minSW 510.00 miFair83°F77°F82%1012.7 hPa
Melfa / Accomack Airport, VA21 mi69 minSW 510.00 miFair82°F79°F93%1013.2 hPa

Wind History from (wind in knots)oops, file error: weather/buffer/KWAL≥os=goes16/eusairportwind
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Tide / Current Tables for Wishart Point, Bogues Bay, Chincoteague Bay, Virginia
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Wishart Point
Click for Map
Sat -- 05:45 AM EDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:55 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:14 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 11:29 AM EDT     2.44 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:50 PM EDT     0.41 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:50 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:35 PM EDT     2.75 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.72.21.610.50.20.10.41.11.72.12.42.42.11.71.20.80.50.40.71.31.92.42.7

Tide / Current Tables for Chincoteague Island, USCG Station, Chincoteague Bay, Virginia
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Chincoteague Island
Click for Map
Sat -- 05:44 AM EDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:13 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 11:41 AM EDT     1.55 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:49 PM EDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:49 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:47 PM EDT     1.75 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.71.51.10.70.30.10.10.30.611.31.51.51.41.10.80.50.30.30.40.81.21.51.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.