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PZZ530 San Pablo Bay, Suisun Bay, The West Delta And The San Francisco Bay North Of The Bay Bridge- 156 Pm Pst Fri Dec 1 2023
Today..NW winds 20 to 30 knots.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 knots. A slight chance of rain.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of rain.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 knots. A slight chance of rain.
Sun night..W winds 5 to 10 knots.
Mon..N winds 5 to 10 knots.
Tue..N winds around 5 knots.

PZZ500 156 Pm Pst Fri Dec 1 2023
Synopsis for the central california coast and bays including the Monterey bay..Greater farallones...and cordell bank national marine sanctuaries...
gusty northwesterly winds will continue to dissipate tonight into the weekend. Seas become elevated from a long period northwesterly swell that starts to build Saturday, creating hazardous conditions for small craft vessels. Another larger northwest swell with larger periods of 16-21 seconds causing 11-15 feet waves will build by midweek next week. Unsettled weather through the weekend may continue to bring intermittent rain showers across the northern waters through the weekend.

FXUS66 KMTR 020127 AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 527 PM PST Fri Dec 1 2023

New AVIATION, MARINE

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 224 AM PST Fri Dec 1 2023

Cool, unsettled weather for the next few days followed by a warming trend into early next week. An approaching trough of low pressure towards the end of the next workweek will bring the return of unsettled weather.

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 114 PM PST Fri Dec 1 2023

Filtered sunshine for a good portion of the Bay Area and Central Coast this afternoon as mainly high clouds stream over the region.
A thicker band of clouds cover portions of the North Bay and those are associated with an approaching cold front. Chilly start to the day and filtered sunshine have led to slightly cooler temperatures this afternoon compare to yesterday afternoon. Max temps this afternoon will top out in the 50s and 60s.

Speaking of a cold front, latest surface analysis shows a weak cold front is still lurking to the north of the Bay Area. One minor change from the forecast was to delay the onset of precip this evening/overnight as the front moves south. Models have been trending slower with precip moving into the North Bay this evening. Therefore, precip will initially remain north of the Golden Gate through roughly midnight. And by precip, we mean showers with a 15-30%. After midnight, precip chances ease southward as the front washes out over the Bay Area late tonight through Saturday. Saturday can be categorized as cooler with scattered showers into the afternoon. Not a wash out by any means, but a few showers possible nonetheless. Showers chances will lift northward late Saturday as high pressure begins to nose in from the SW.

LONG TERM
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 139 PM PST Fri Dec 1 2023

Showers chances will lingering over the North Bay late Saturday night into Sunday as high pressure builds in from the SW. The building high pressure will lead to increased sunshine on Sunday through Tuesday with drier conditions and warmer daytime temperatures. Total rainfall will generally be a 0.10" or less most area (S of San Jose little to no precip) and possibly up to 0.50" far North Bay.

The drier weather will be short lived as the ridge of high pressure gets buffeted by another cold front. Showers return to the forecast Tuesday evening into Wednesday. Rainfall chances once again will be greatest north of the Golden Gate, but this go around shower chances do make it to Monterey county by Wednesday afternoon. Unsettled/showery weather will linger into Friday.

Once the precip tapers off on Friday the focus then turns to overnight lows. Longer range guidance suggests another round of chilly to cold night with frost/freeze conditions possible.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 525 PM PST Fri Dec 1 2023

Currently VFR at all TAF sites with the exception of STS which has started to see the lower clouds begin to trek southward thanks to a weak cold front that will pass through the region. Showers will likely stay to the Bay Area and north tomorrow, not resulting in any visibility limiters unless a shower were to develop right over a terminal. Chances for showers begin to diminish after 21Z. Once terminals obtain their MVFR ceiling, they will keep it through the TAF period.

Vicinity of SFO... Currently VFR with breezy onshore flow. Winds will begin to slowly diminish as the afternoon goes on with winds becoming and staying southwesterly until tomorrow afternoon. Winds tomorrow will be lighter than what they were today. For precipitation chances tomorrow, timing is between 10Z and 23Z as it will be showery in nature. With this will come MVFR ceilings; however, there is not forecast to be any reductions in visibility.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR at both TAF sites. Drainage flow will commence overnight with westerly winds returning after 18Z for MRY and after 21Z for SNS. The best chances for showers remain to the north of the Bay Area so the terminals should stay dry. There is uncertainty for ceilings at the terminals as there was a lot of model disagreement particularly for SNS, so MRY is forecast to obtain and keep an MVFR ceiling after 16Z with SNS staying above the MVFR threshold, although confidence for this is low. We will continue to monitor the latest model runs and have that reflected in the next routine TAF issuance.

MARINE
(Tonight through next Wednesday)
Issued at 525 PM PST Fri Dec 1 2023

Gusty northwesterly winds will continue to dissipate tonight into the weekend. Seas become elevated from a long period northwesterly swell that starts to build Saturday, creating hazardous conditions for small craft vessels. Another larger northwest swell with larger periods of 16-21 seconds causing 11-15 feet waves will build by midweek next week. Unsettled weather through the weekend may continue to bring intermittent rain showers across the northern waters through the weekend.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Saturday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Saturday to 3 PM PST Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

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Suisun Point
Click for Map
Fri -- 05:20 AM PST     4.22 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:05 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:55 AM PST     2.55 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:11 AM PST     Moonset
Fri -- 03:05 PM PST     5.00 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:49 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:47 PM PST     Moonrise
Fri -- 11:14 PM PST     -0.31 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Suisun Point, Carquinez Strait, California, Tide feet

Stake Point .9 Mi NNW
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:52 AM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:05 AM PST     0.77 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 07:05 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:15 AM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 10:07 AM PST     -0.25 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 11:10 AM PST     Moonset
Fri -- 11:48 AM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 03:12 PM PST     0.73 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 04:48 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 05:49 PM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 08:46 PM PST     Moonrise
Fri -- 09:24 PM PST     -0.89 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Stake Point .9 Mi NNW, Suisun Bay, California Current, knots

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